Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 04-Dec-2008 13:41 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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as long as your method works for you, i'll not knock it. :) cheers!
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| 04-Dec-2008 12:17 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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i'm blithely going to ignore all the arguments here and just focus on what's useful.... cashiertan has recommended two excellent sites there. :) personally, the only two books on trading i like are the intelligent investor, and trading in the zone. Both, you'll realise, have more to do with psychology than actual 'winning systems'. since really, without self-knowledge or discipline, even the best technical tools/FA skills would be pointless. anw, more importantly: STI is surprisingly resilient. Look for the counters with nice little green candles, and buy on dip for capricorn-leading to obama taking office. they'll bail out the auto-makers. it's a lot of wayang going on, but they'll bail them out. ie, majority of media is going to focus on the positive, even though the data is bad and getting worse. Markets follow sentiment; media controls sentiment. It is a phenomenon known as media fatigue: where all the news is so bad, people get tired of it, and they just ignore it/discount it. need to adopt a consistent buy-on-dip philosophy. follow the large lots. keep spare bullets. above for longterm folks only. |
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| 30-Nov-2008 23:03 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hear hear. :) KISS rule applies in trading: Keep It Simple, Stupid. the less indicators, the less justifications, the less white noise, the better off one is. Eliminate all personal feeling, likes, dislikes, and just see a pure chart for what it is. Forum bickerings and all disagreements, discard. They are white noise, they do not help. After all, for everyone who sees a bear, another will see a bull. Why waste time in proving oneself right in words, when the better reward is in the market? Right now: everything on the dow. this rise should take to 9,500 or so. To note decrease in vol as price increased. Quaruple witching on the 3rd friday of dec. SSE is the interesting one. it has been creeping up. If the next down of the DJIA holds above the 7,900-8,000 mark, and SSE can creep back to 2,500, that sets the stage for a possible Capricorn effect. won't be on frequently anymore; going for hols til mid jan. cheers!
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| 24-Nov-2008 19:15 |
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Civil Service Pay Cut?
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http://theonlinecitizen.com/2008/11/third-ministers%e2%80%99-pay-hike-in-two-years-%e2%80%93-staying-together-or-moving-ahead/ ??? so which is real, increase or decrease in salary?  (no wonder the pay hike at the start of this year.....from 1.2mil to 1.9mil. so now if it's 1.57mil, they're still increased by 25% from previous time....
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| 24-Nov-2008 00:07 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/where-700bil-is-going.html 'ere we go. rather than arguing about investing/trading styles, may as well spend time on self education. something interesting for ppl to read. The Plunge Protection Team. Ever heard of it? Anyone wondered how the DJIA can *methodically* drop about 400 pts every day for 6 days after Obama won, or how, the recovery in every down, like friday's, happens only in the last hour or so? Or how, in August, the COT report showed that 2 investment banks---yes, only two--had shorted 20% of the world's gold and silver supply, in the days prior to these commods crashing? Or why, on Nov 19, with the S&P down 4%, the Fed gave a massive short term loan at almost zero interest rate to GS, telling them to "put the funds immediately to work", whereupon GS immediately bought S&P futures at or above the bid price massively? food for thought. |
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| 23-Nov-2008 23:05 |
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Tan Kin lian eyes elected presidency...:))
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http://tankinlian.blogspot.com/2008/11/petition-form-for-elected-presidency.html true, true. but humans make the system. and too many of one type in any system would inevitably lead to failure. it's nature: the convergent principle works when things are going well; but in situations of change, divergency is required. |
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| 23-Nov-2008 22:50 |
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Tan Kin lian eyes elected presidency...:))
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i'd rather he be an MP than a President, since presidents here are just consitutional heads of states. It is MPs who can effect REAL change. factoid of interest: he takes the MRT to work everyday, just like us. let it be put on record that i'm one of the little haybees who'd sign to be one of the 100,000 voting for him. so he has 99,999 names more to go. anyone else???? 
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| 23-Nov-2008 22:42 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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div plays: only take the traditional bona fide blues pls. reits and shipping etc were growth stocks, growth stocks have their boom-bust cycle. waverly: kepland/smm: there are some of these around, where they aren't quite 1st liners, but they aren't quite second liners either. Perhaps they are somewhere in between, the way s'pore is considered midway between 3rd world and 1st. In proper FA investing: if you are holding the parent company, you shouldn't be holding the daughter as well: since that is in effect leveraging. There should be a choice made between whether to hold the daughter or mother company. SPC/kepland are daughters of kepcorp. just as SMM is daughter of SCI. SIA as 1st liner. since it's our only airline. haha. it's similar to what i was saying: not all of the ST 30 components are in because they are blue chips. some are in for political/other reasons. Besides, SIA has a long history, sole national airline, plus temasek backing. these alone qualify it. traders/investors/etc. geez. give it a break folks. i'm more practical: if it works for you, take it. CW is right: it's about having a clear plan to play it objectively. Many ways for a stock to go, similarly, many ways for a person to make money in the market (and likewise, many ways to lose too). the best way is to take something that suits YOU---in terms of practical: how much time can you spend watching the market, can you stomach volaility, how big can you play etc---rather than just apeing people blindly. cheers! |
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| 20-Nov-2008 15:08 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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SPC: hm. yea. maybe so; cos it has fallen a lot. parent co = kep corp. so by right if you buy the parent, you shdn't be buying the daughter...on the other hand, it does have temasek backing tho. and more privileged than the others in its sector. yea, good idea to buy on dip if you're lkg long term. no hurry to buy now though. when i say to fish at lowest i meant min the sti 1478 prices....watch HSI: critical support 11,000. it's currently abt 11,999. will have massive reaction on the STI if that level breaks. (i like to think of the HSI as a divaesque lady of tremendous fainting and euphoric episodes. lol.) off now! |
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| 20-Nov-2008 12:14 |
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edit: remember even after weeding out the first liners: to check their forward earnings outlook. CWquah's last pt should not be overlooked: the qualification of which sector is likely to do well. Or if you cannot id them, then a simpler method would be to id the sectors that will likely NOT do well. ie, right now, given the shape of loans and the US auto industry (which when fallen, will lead to a massive fallout in terms of jobs, suppliers etc going bust along with them, hence more foreclosures etcetc): you may like to avoid the banks for this period of time. Same thing for travel/retail/tourism industry: no money, no job, will people travel? Common sense will let you id what will not likely do well. first liners of the blues (whether their earnings outlook is good or bad): pls feel free to add in, not conclusive here as i'm just naming off the cuff: OCBC, UOB. DBS. sembcorp, kepcorp. SGX. SMRT. Singpost. SPH. (these 3 are considered defensive---so check their ranges in uptrend and downtrend). SIA. Singtel. St engg. SPC. --i consider sembmar, kepland, NOL, sia engg as 2nd liners actually, tho they're probably on a midway between 1st and 2nd. caveat applies as usual pls. just sharing info here. Jardine CC and MH. CDL. Capland. Wilmar. (very volatile tho). |
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| 20-Nov-2008 12:04 |
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everything CW and AK francis said below. good post, CW. :) note that blue chips are divided as well: some are traders' counters, some are 2nd liners. For market recovery, try to stick as best as you can to the 1st liners of the blue chips: since these are the same ones that will recover the fastest. (market pattern: 1st liners up first, then 2nd liners, then pennies. Which is why, when pennies chiong, it's your sign to get out of the market). To note that all these are for longer term players (defined as > 6 mths, even 3-5 yrs). Which right now, the odds favour long term plays more than short term plays as a lot of counters have gaps in their prices. CW's criteria are from pure FA criteria: strong div, positive and consistent cash flow, forward earnings outlook (based on something TANGIBLE pls, not just a *belief* or *promise* or some speculation of contract deals). Look esp at their debts: you do not want a company that pledges everything for a loan, since when bad earnings hit, they may not have enough cash to survive--like GM in the US. note quirk of the market here: cos our market is so small, trying to apply sector rotation theory wholesale may not work: SPH and SMRT for eg are known defensive plays: but if you look at them technically, they trade over the years in a very narrow range, ie likely upside limited in a recovery. anyway: 1st liner of the blues: check via sector: those with 20-30 year history on the STI. sound mgmt, large market cap. Not necessarily just in the STI 30, though better yet if they fulfill all the criteria. They are usually above $2 even at this pt in time. Note the STI 30 (or is it 28??) components are NOT necessarily all first liners: some are included out of political reasons, others are new entrants yet to prove themselves. Some others, like SIA engg, are more considered as 2nd liners. caveat applies as usual. |
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| 20-Nov-2008 10:22 |
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yuppers. btw, thanks to you and the rest on answering about ARs etc. (and yup, i see quarterly reports too). FA is impt--because it controls newsflow, which is what affects sentiment. So when ppl wish to pick up winners for the next run, the first indications will be on FA. (tho i personally prefer technicals). this is for those who play longer term (>6tmhs/1 yr etc). yah, in hols. can't wait for mid dec. will be going away for a month or longer. hehe. cheers!
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| 19-Nov-2008 17:48 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners. don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch. |
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| 17-Nov-2008 21:15 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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hmm...yea cashiertan....i remember sometime months back when i did an FA on this counter (was posted way back on this thread), only to have it swept under the rash of bullish calls...and again during that last run up from 46c to 68.5c, when so many of the tech people, not just you and me, here kept telling folks to run....but a lot wanted to hold cos of the analysts' call for 1.02 or something... don't want to say more, since it'd be like rubbing salt into wounds. but yea, hope that people will be more careful. this has always been a played counter.... one more thing: to be careful if biosensors drops below 23c, because then, it's beyond charting... good luck to the vested, and i sincerely hope i'm wrong. no offence to anyone vested in the counter. cheers. |
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| 15-Nov-2008 18:56 |
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Where to find good paying and stable jobs?
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lol. yea, my bad, i forgot. civil service job: to enter as senior officer, you need 2nd upper class honours and above. wasn't 2 yr contract the last i heard; ntot sure tho. and in any case, most tend to pass probation. (iron bowl). attrition rate is pretty high actually. aiyah, no worries about getting a job as a gahmen servant. it's a bloated bureaucracy we have. imagine, one small country, 85 stat boards and organisations. the civil service's the biggest employer here, actually. that's why we are all like this:
yah. being an MP is the best. i agree with nickyng here. teaching is a good profession: you MUST have patience and liking for children though: of all professions, please don't enter this one "just because of the money". Think about it as a parent: would you want your child's teacher to be someone who is in it "ahhh, no choice, i need a job and the money".
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| 15-Nov-2008 18:48 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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i only read ARs (annual reports) for FA. i don't trust analysts reports: ARs are what give you the full figures and theoretically, the full disclosure. whereas analysts' reports will give you their interpretation of it: so trusting an analyst's report is like 2nd degree interpretation from the fact. Have never seen the numbers from poems/etc, so am not sure? Sometimes it may be old numbers, is my guess. Alternatively, the analysts may have deducted off main sums etc to show 'actual holdings'. best example of trusting only ARs and not tabulated financials/analysts reports: Ferrochina. Their Aug AR actually gave the debt figure already--which astute investors should have realised would drive the company into negative equity immediately. hope this helps.
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| 14-Nov-2008 04:54 |
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DJIA beautifully up ~430 pts as we speak, on back of a 200 pip rise in the UJ. near perfect bounce off its support line, though dropped below for a spell no thanks to a statement by Soros (who is, of course, a vested party). STI likely to gap up tomorrow. still holding a call of consolidation mode for now. 1700 to 2000, with 1900 being a resistance. as per blog post on 11th nov alr. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/sti-and-djia.html (for those who wish to see the tech evidence). note that we've bounced off ~1700 three times in the last 9 trading sessions. no matter what the DJIA gyrations were. Again and again, it is about technicals, the trend. What does the trend say? Always, make sure you see what is, and not what your fear/greed leads you to see. same thing: for traders only. NOT for longterm investors yet. consolidation range => can go either way. caveat applies. |
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| 14-Nov-2008 00:55 |
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Where to find good paying and stable jobs?
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become a civil servant. |
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| 14-Nov-2008 00:54 |
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Will STI Go To 1,200 At All???
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shortists haven't only been caught today...they've been caught for the last two weeks as well. anyway, i'm not interested in arguing about bottoming/etc. my only interest is rationality and objectivity. "what ifs" matter less than "what is", in the markets. to that end: 1200 is possible, yes, but 800, remote. "Anything can happen"---of course. But what's the probability of it? TA is about probability. or for those who understand fundamentals: to make the point clearer: when STI was 3900, cosco was trading at 8.20. 20x above its NAV of 46c at that time. Kepcorp was trading at $14, 4x above its then-NAV of 3.43. Gar was trading at 1.10, NAV was US43c. You really think STI 4,000 would have lasted forever? Then now: Current prices/relative to NAV? Cosco NAV = 51c, px abt 90c. Kepcorp NAV 2.91, px, 4.73. GAr = 19c. It's greed and fear that drives the herd, and that's exactly what traders capitalise on. these are the points i'm making. and well, will just let time bear the burden of proof. meanwhile, this is just a forum. rather than getting emotionally involved, far better to weed out the white noise and move accordingly. cheers! |
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| 13-Nov-2008 18:07 |
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married trades = X trades. same thing reflected in BUSD. academics doesn't count in the market lah. look at economists. they always get it wrong. or as they themselves say, they're right, but only in the long, long run. 
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