Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:48 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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but is a once-off seminar thing better, or perhaps regular posts in a limited pay-per-view section of SJ? because the topics are so many, and the forumers are diverse. some have some background, others are virtual newbies/perennially losing. and i'm only one elf. (for another thing, i don't want to kena killed by the BBs.  )
thanks for the thumbsup, cwquah and synnexo. :) hondastream---BUSD: look for concerted selldowns in large lots, if you're talking about shorting. Each house has a certain pattern. Tho, it is perhaps less important to id what house is playing, and more important to just know that someone is shorting/ramping a counter. For last week and previous: look at capitaland as eg. The ramp from 5.8 to 6.3 prior its results, and the subsequent tanking to 5.01, recovery to 5.32 and now down to 5.11 in this week alone. Just today: you can see coscocorp, sembmar, swiber. Note tho: i will NOT give 'tips', neither will i name BBs, esp locals. I don't wanna get killed. Besides, it's as said, less important to know who specifically, more important to know what counter and why and how they're playing it. hm. it may be a better idea not to hold face-to-face 'teaching sessions'. 
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:40 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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ryanwong, how do you think "hot tips" that even your neighbourhood kopitiam uncle/auntie know come about?  by the time it reaches them tho, they tend to be ramped up to a certain point already, so even if you do make, it's just a little compared to what the BBs make. still, better profit than loss. 
is it dirty? yes. is it unfair? patently. but then, this is the market. we're small fries. pointless having any pretensions of equality or fairness. Far wiser to learn fast and go with it, rather than against it. 
o/w, it's play on. you may lose one, but it doesn't mean you'll lose forever. the faster one learns, the better it becomes. so chins up, peeps!  (or as we call it, "tuition fees" to the market. whaha.)
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:31 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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edit: oh, and we can thank cosco for the shelling of the other marine counters today man. sembmar, kepcorp, swiber, etc. o/w their drop actually wouldn't be so drastic: most counters are actually down only 3% or less today; but the marine plays are all down at least 5%, with exception of kep corp. opportunistic shorting on these counters. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:27 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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strictly speaking: insider trading is if you buy/sell a counter when you are privy to price-sensitive news that the market does not know yet. such as the winning of a big contract, or the change of management, as per cosco's case. but it is very, very difficult to prove. since a lot of times, it may just be market rumors--how to find the source when practically everyone knows it--or it may be BB changing portfolio legitimately, or it may be experienced techies: eg, personally i'd have called a trading sell on cosco @ 2.97 on aug 4 based on candlesticks: vol up, px closed down, not a good sign at all. classic sell signal. why the tanking happens worse is because once the news is out, you have genuine distribution, plus shorting going on by the opportunists. You can count the no: of shortists by the short covering at the day's end. esp the closing bell's lots. so really, mostly, a person is caught for insider trading only if he's idiotic enough to be the ONLY one buying/selling on privileged news, AND someone reports him. Which is not how BBs operate. Neither is it how SGX acts. haha. i just created a thread, go see it. hopefully it may help the n00bs some.
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:19 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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had considered jointly setting up courses with SJ, but am kinda busy at the moment; plus, not quite sure of the reaction from the ground, and if courses are viable. So anw, for now, just some bits of info here and there. --------------------------- Continuing from the cosco thread: The point of using a broker How many of you just use your broker to buy/sell a trade? The fact is, you're paying him a commission. So ASK FOR INFORMATION. You're entitled to. Often, they know things that a regular retailer won't know. Sometimes, this may save you from making a bad decision. Never just ask: "Should i buy?" Brokers survive on commission, so of course most of them will ask you to buy! You always need to make your own decisions. And be responsible for them. Let's face it: the singapore market is a small place. As such, it is manipulated, for want of a better word (tho strictly speaking, it's just mathematical: they have more money, of course when they move, the market moves). The BBs will always be in the front: foreigners: ML, MS, Citi, GS, UBS, Macq, being common names, as well as local BBs, who are from the broker houses. If you can read BUSD patterns well enough, you can even identify precisely what house is playing what counter. Each BB has a ticker tag. So all brokers know who's buying/selling whatever. If your broker tells you he doesn't know, well, it's time to change brokers. There is a distinction between a small fry, and a BB. Let's just say there are some names you should never go against. So when you buy, ask your broker: 1) Who is the counterparty. 2) Better yet, if you and your broker are on that good terms, especially if your counter has been suddenly shelled, just ask them directly: Who are the operators. Or to be polite, who is selling. Sooner or later, you'll learn their names, who to avoid, and whose side to be on. And if you have a complaint about manipulation, feel free to mail cdp@sgx.com. Tho personally, i think our authorities can't do much. Which is why, all the more, a small fry needs to learn how to survive on his/her own. Cheers. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:07 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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zionbee, there was an earlier discussion on what constitutes insider trading in this thread. Essentially, ALL BBs get news faster than retailers. Insider trading is difficult to prove, since what is insider trading is "news that is not known to the general public." Who's to say that the BBs are not part of the general public? ryanwong, perhaps it's a different track we're talking about. Not insider news. For those of you with brokers, esp if you don't know how to read BUSD: ask your broker who the counterparty is. There are certain names and numbers to avoid, especially if you're on their opposing side. quite simply, they have too much fire power. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 14:15 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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haha. wbwee88, do your own homework. ppl love to rely on tips; but that doesn't make one a good trader/investor in the long run. it only creates a lazy mindset. besides, 'cheap' can be defined in many ways. a penny counter is cheap. but btwn a penny and a solidly backed blue chip, the blue is likely to go up faster. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 14:00 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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to clarify some stuff for newbies/people in this counter (note i'm not vested): yes, institutional players and brokers normally get wind of news before the retailers. which is why you must have a very good relationship with your broker, so that you get the news as early as possible. esp if you can't read charts. if you want to buy this counter: question yourself why first. what signs show buy? is it worth a hold, or is it just a scalp counter/for you? pointless getting worked up. this is the market. As for SGX, personally, i think they are paper tigers. They can't do anything except send queries to the company, which often results in the usual "we know of no material reason for the sudden increase/decrease in price/vol." Expect to see furious short covering later but down again tomorrow. It is how it is. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 13:53 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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on 5th aug, cwquah and i (we're independent, unrelated techies) already warned not to touch this counter. plus, i gave added warning to wait at least one day if you want to buy, and that there were lots of other valuable counters. no surprise that this counter is down. in first place, its FA is not strong, all its profits have been priced in already. in second place, note how often the directors trade this stock, as well as how often the analysts change from buy call to sell call, to buy call (i had said on 19 or 20th jun that since they've now issued buy call, it means they're going to start selling). fundamentals do not change overnight. What changes, however, is sentiment. as well as how the BBs manipulate it. Retailers would do well to learn this. have personally called cut on this counter since 7.5. just let it find its natural bottom now. market's a savage place, make no mistake about that. the Houses in this are damn good tho. Never go against them.
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| 07-Aug-2008 13:30 |
Others
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Ghost Month and the Stock Market
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synnexo. oh so that's what bao-ing means. had thought about something like it before: buy all except the less likely numbers (eg, 1111, 1222 etc), but imagine having to fill in all those numbers on the 4D ticket. 
and sigh. the way the market is going, mebbe we should pool our money and open a singapore pools outlet instead. confirm winner. 
thank goodness for forex. urgh. see this kind of market, only two words: "puke blood". 
ooh yea. those cemetery trips. heard of those before. think they're very xie2 tho. cos going by the laws of karma, you're definitely going to have to pay it back some way. 
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| 07-Aug-2008 12:33 |
ShareJunction
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Swiber
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marine plays being shelled today. combination of locals and foreigns. mostly locals. just hunker down if you believe in the counter. may be a bit to late to cut at this px. be prepared to go in deep though. cheers. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 10:58 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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edit: ahh! i forgot to give jj a  for his biosensors play! o/w, overall market climate is bad; worser than i expected. looks like no NDP rally after all. well, i can go back to  . or mebbe i should paint my windows instead. hehe.
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| 07-Aug-2008 10:52 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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nah, i should be honoured to learn from someone who used to work on the trading floor. :P jj, i must say, you're one heckuva lucky guy! respect your guts for daring to play this counter. and heh, i'll never let a counter drop 30% on me....cos 5-8% drop, i'll stop loss out of the counter already. rather a small definite loss than risk a big unknown. esp if charts show headed down, and worser yet, you know which BB is in your counter. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 10:41 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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actually, you'll be surprised....most ppl, in their logical state, will not do cost averaging that way. but just ask any person in front of the terminal watching. most of them will keep going in, and in, and in. Ave down all the way til peng san. sama sama for yzj, yl, cosco etcetc. the thing is, charts are only of the past. from them we predict the future. For all the aunties and uncles that their friends tell them 'hot tip', they chiong to buy (usually after a good portion of hte run up is done), then it dips, and they just keep buying. they think it's 'cheaper' and 'cheaper'. am pretty sure a lot of forumers here (prob not writing) can relate to that. it's how ppl get burnt, essentially. you were saying luzhou. same thing, really. if you hadn't gotten out, that'd be bad. anw, at least you're one of the lucky ones. hehe. mebbe we should get you to pick toto numbers. :P |
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| 07-Aug-2008 10:11 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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with cost averaging, you ave out at the bottom to hope for a turn-around, like what this counter did. need to choose counters well tho. not all rebound so fast. and the px you average at is very impt, too. only after bottoming, and not catching a falling knife. like trader88 says, if you had bought at 1.4, then you buy 1.3, 1.2, 1.0, down to even 70c, by the time it hits 60c, 50c, you'd most likely have lost nerve to buy already. all depends on one's trading strategy. as long as it makes money, why not. hehe. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 00:58 |
Others
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Ghost Month and the Stock Market
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there's actually a forum on 4D/Toto. (-_-").... hey, synnexo, cool insights! what do you mean about bao-ing the smaller numbers? they tend to come out more often? 
i've observed one thing about the toto numbers tho: if you want a higher probability of a win, you need to have one set of two numbers in consecutive order in your ticket. (eg, 10, 11. or 21, 22. etcetc). since it's the ghost month. anyone has any stories to share? 
o/w, has everyone gotten their toto tickets yet???? rememberrr...... freak chance is better than no chance! |
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| 07-Aug-2008 00:37 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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elfie's bored. elfie wants to play. 
----- continuing from that ghost month thread. hehe. The BB story....or why small fries tend to lose in the market. Small fries in the market: 
BB, looking at small fries: 
BB, planning 'action': 
BB, creates 'excitement'--some news release or whatever.  Predictably, small fries go: 
Small fries jumping in for (they think) quick gain. 
BBs release counter. 
Small fries initially stunned:  then become 'gong' by the slide: 
Small fries, unable to cut, just keep watching market (slide), day, after day, after day: 
BBs: 
Small fries' portfolio: 
----------- Sooooo, ladies and germs! the moral of the story? 1) Know what exactly are the kind of counters you're buying (fast scalp? FA? slow TA? growth? etc) 2) Know who is the BB in your counter and how they play it 3) ALWAYS SET A STOP LOSS. This message has been brought to you courtesy of your friendly SJ elf. Thank you. 
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| 07-Aug-2008 00:10 |
Others
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DOW
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i kinda thought the DJIA would be positive actually. oil is down, the UJ is up to 10930, tech results are good. once the shock of freddie mac wears off, the uptrend is likely to resume. i would still like to see a break of 11,800 tho. o/w, it's as per normal. dang it, i wish i hadn't punted. now i can't sleep late. 
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| 07-Aug-2008 00:03 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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well cwquah, that's what usually happens. the MBAs are hired by the dropouts to run their companies. like Microsoft. and yea. personally i don't think very much of scholars. they tend to be from the upper class (hence, how do you expect them to know the daily life of a family living on an income of 3k, with 2 kids and grandparents?), plus, the moment they step into work, they're Assistant Directors, and virtually assured an iron ricebowl. I've worked with many scholars. the system is such that they're wholly protected, they go for big showy projects, create a mess, but STILL get promoted. And meanwhile, the non-scholars have to clean up after them. duh. To be fair, there are good ones too, who genuinely try to make a difference. But the people working with them tend to suck up to them, too. I've seen people jumping at their every word. So what you end up with is the blind leading the blind. hahahahha, stupidfool, i'm one of those who couldn't survive the system. need to note that scholar and 2nd upper class is very different. sometimes, if it's a group together, the scholar lords over it, the 2nd upper-non-scholars are the ones who are stuck doing all the work, because the poly and below get to be below the radar. It's a no-win situation, really. |
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| 06-Aug-2008 22:20 |
Kim Eng
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Kim Eng
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foreign fund selling i believe. this counter has a relatively small float, so its fluctuations tends to be a lot when it moves. |
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