Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 07-Jan-2007 16:32 |
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ya know, surelywin, what you're asking from me is a complete financial plan...which would cost you a pretty penny at any insurance/financial planner. *hint hint* :P haha. bunbun (why this nick??? tell leh...).. i kinda assumed they had insurance already. since at 55, if you were to buy insurance now, it'd cost you a bomb. Actually i factored in for disease. 300k of that 3.6mil went to medical. Which was why it's abt 6k left per mth for the couple. very rough figures only tho; ain't gonna calculate so precisely for a hypothesis. Anyway, at that age, the only coverage you need is critical diseases and term life (pls don't buy insurance-linked 'investment' plans.)--'cos if at 65 you still have children depending on you for handouts, i say, cut them loose man. (ya, very cruel, i know). 400k for a hdb. freehold condos will cost you 600-800k at least. pls note i'm not an expert in property...and i only favour the east 'cos elf grew up by the sea, and i need water around me. hehe. moderate spender is the assumption i gave-->3k per pax per mth. 'high end' in the insurance biz is 5-6k per mth. (on the assumption that you are debt free, all house/car/etc loans cleared, so the 3k is pure spending money). pls note also that condos will cost you quite a lot more in maintenance and conservancy fees every mth. and what kind of hols you looking at? a trip on the QE2 is gonna be way more ex a hols than a trip to say, thailand. haha. You gotta count your figures yourself and see what you're comfortable with. it's balancing expectations and reality. :) divvy plays: you're counting 5% per annum. that's equivalent to maybank's FD. Consider other stocks like st engg, smrt, singpost, and the reits. they can give up to 10%, dep on the price you get them at. |
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| 07-Jan-2007 15:00 |
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hey yongjiu....belated response (sorry, too many posts, missed some): A=ask, B=bid, X=cancelled/delayed (for whatever reason). Do you happen to have the entire last 4-530pm trade vol summary, as per the post above? if you do, could you pls paste it up? something's happening with this counter; trying to figure out what. |
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| 07-Jan-2007 14:49 |
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surelywin, the question is their daily expenditures and needs. Are they the high living type, or the simple, down to earth type? because with 4 mil, counting 40 years left to live (yeayea morbid, but it's part of financial planning), assuming they're debt free, they actually have enough to live comfortably on already. buy a flat for 400K, left 3.6mil to live on. div that by 40 years, you have a comfortable sum of at least 6k per mth (incl inflation). the key thing i'd advise: don't buy 'hot' property, not at this time. Not unless they have children they want to leave it to. 'cos if you look at psf value, you can get an E-flat for abt 450k, land area of abt 1500-1600sq feet. To me, it's ridiculous to pay 2000 psf for a measly 850sq ft apartment, marina bay area or not. esp when they're 99 yr holdings too. If private property is a must, look at the kembangan and east coast area. some bargains to be had there. but again, it's individual choice. if 'brand name' (waahhh...district 1,4,9,10,11) are all that matters, and they can afford it, it's fine. personally tho, i'd choose a bigger, more spacious no-brand HDB flat, and get to spend on holidays, jewelry and investment etc instead. hehe. |
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| 07-Jan-2007 14:33 |
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tracking SPC like a little vulture now. expecting a major drop next week. someone's beginning to play with this counter. |
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| 07-Jan-2007 14:28 |
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hey...billywows, if you're able to trade on gut instincts alone, it means 1) you have a very good knowledge of the market 2) you can separate instinct from impulse, and actually not get carried away by the latter. my utmost respect, man. Will be listening to your advice, definitely. :) With regards to instinct, yea, i'm getting weird vibes too from the market. it's making me nervy. |
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| 06-Jan-2007 23:47 |
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heyhey, sam billywows wisely! welcome to the Fellowship! :))) *leaf badge!* hehe. US market is impt...STI follows the DOW for leads like a little doggie. So any singaporean investor has to look to the DOW for clues. singaporegal is the true blue TA specialist, actually. :) Salute to our Arwen! yeah, market way too high. Genting's crazy; talk about a feeding frenzy. And haha, with a property glut shaping up in 2009/2010, i'm sooo gonna want to buy property then man... Elf has locked in profits and sitting pretty on jan's accounts already. that's why bored...hope i won't be tempted to go in again man. must resist. >~< billywows, contrarians always interest me. Templeton for instance has a contrarian fund that regularly outperforms S&P and DOW. Mind sharing a little abt how you trade, and what you look for? :) |
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| 06-Jan-2007 23:03 |
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ooh...the divvy sounds good. am actually watching this counter. not yet tho, still can go down a bit more. giantlow: vol, i take ave min of 1mil per day. And the vols have to be consistent. No sudden spikes or dips (i'm faint hearted haha). You can do comparative amongst the blue chips. abt same price value should have same vols. yea, lots of small lots =>retail investors. big lots=>funds. jackjames. haha, i see you have experience following your fiance/wife into the frenzy of shopping. haha. |
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| 06-Jan-2007 22:58 |
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thanks singaporegal, was just wondering if i was too tired or my eyes playing tricks on me. market's boring now. all too high. no fun liao. :( haha, punter, forget it, not a chance in heaven, earth or hell any of you could guess what i'm working in. :P |
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| 06-Jan-2007 22:42 |
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hehe. i seriously wonder if mister nostradamus would actually deign to play around with small fries like us. His tone does suit Gandalf tho. yeayea, billywows and his DOWsing. almost oracular. hehe. they're the last thing i refer to before i sleep. new job's a bit overwhelming, still trying to absorb....sleepy now....zzzz... ipunter...sorry to say, nope. clouds?? hm, singaporegal, what does it mean when a stock's A/D and chaikin suddenly go from positive to large negative value? |
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| 06-Jan-2007 12:20 |
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hey...have just finished doing a batch of TA....singaporegal, is it just me, or do most of your lead indicators for almost all counters signal down soon? fwah. that's tall man. btw, giantlow. i only read forum threads on counters i'm interested in, or if the title intrigues me. only happened to click on stamford tyres by mistake. in future pls point me to yr thread if i'm not in it yea. :) counter looks like bottoming out, but it's a penny and vols quite low, so not sure how effective TA is on it. punter, elf doesn't read blogs lah. think it's a waste of time. most are of little value and artistic merit; merely verbal diarrhoea on jazzed up tales of mundane lives. don't ya wanna be a wizard instead? merlin!! heeheee. (yea i know, i'm crossing all literary boundaries.) ahhhhh we need a lady of the lake!! so ethereally beautiful. :)))) |
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| 06-Jan-2007 00:00 |
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nites Arwen, sleep tight, sleep sweet. :) |
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| 05-Jan-2007 23:57 |
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heya lausk22, welcome to the Fellowship! *leaf badge!* :))))) personally, if it helps others, i don't mind. :) As long as investors don't listen exactly, and always _make their own minds_. said somewhere before already that i wanted sharejunction to be a cut above the rest of local forums. i fully meant that. Ugly behaviour repulses me. (man, i think the admin should pay me!!! hey mr ngiam, reading this??? :P) |
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| 05-Jan-2007 23:48 |
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hm...singaporegal, i believe our giantlow is holding on to both warrants and motherstock... yeah, wait for financial reports. they give good divvies. heehee. Livermore, yep, SPC is very sound. Good divvy in fact, if you look at their track record. For the long term investor, no prob at all. you can even look to buy in more when it bottoms out. giantlow...3 years of savings....eek. but yea, it's what you learn from it that's important. like rogue_trader said; we only learn from experience, and hard experience makes us much better. or, as Nietzsche says, "Whatever doesn't kill me, makes me stronger." Hang in there, man! |
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| 05-Jan-2007 23:42 |
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ack...sorry, i don't like being called a gahmen servant. haha. giantlow...the little bunnie seemed unsure, so thought should be nice and make him/her feel welcome. (i thought bunbun was a guy at first but then read some post somewhere and thought oops, mebbe i made a mistake). hehe i'm not the only one 'authorised' to give out leaf badges ya know. kinda thought both of us and our lovely Arwen could. ipunter too! whee.....but ok, here a badge for you too. in view of your SPC, here *four leaf clover badge* :) gandalf!!! are you reading this??? *wave. look at meeee!* how come he/she never say hi. meh. haha. i want some pets! sigh....hahha. is izzy another one of your personified ideals, punter? |
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| 05-Jan-2007 22:49 |
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yea bunbun, don't worry, we're a very friendly, non-elitist bunch. If you've posted, you're on the journey too! *here's a leaf badge for you* haha. :) yea, i wanna retire early and comfortably too. :))) |
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| 05-Jan-2007 22:45 |
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Shplayer?You hit it on the head already! It?s a point I?ve been trying to make all along: markets do not truly move on real fundamentals (of which SPC is solid, judging from its previous annual reports), they move on sentiment.
Caveat: This is going to be another long post. Only for those interested in a method of market analysis which might seem, in plain terms, damn weird to some. If so, feel free to treat this as hocus-pocus. J
For the uninitiated, I use TA, FA and world trends (which is just another term really for psychology). SPC: don?t bother with FA, it?s fundamentally sound but it never quite moves in accordance with it. TA will not work very well too since the sentiments on it can change in a single day because of political trouble and too many factors. So I?m going to dissect SPC here by analytical psychology:
1) REAL factors affecting the actual company SPC: http://www.spc.com.sg/our_activities/our_activities (see the diagram)
i)exploration and production?>discovery of new oil implies share price up. Crude prices affect profit proportionately. ii)Products: crude pdts and oil; gas pipelines -> crude prices fall, SPC drop. Attack on or disruption of pipelinesàdrop in price. iii)Bunker oil and fuelà warehouse, freight and shipping charges affect SPC. iv)Motor gasoline and dieselàprice cuts in petrol stations, SPC drop. v)Aviationàtourism, environmental diseases (SARS etc), airlines affect SPC. à this is what I meant by too many factors, which will end up negating each other/cause uncertainty.
2) Psychological factors affecting SPC share price: the key things bulk of investors remember about this counter, in order of importance: i)crude prices, ii)aviation industry and petrol stations, iii)freight charges.
Meaning: in a stable market with no scares, SPC will track the price of crude oil. When SPC will deviate: when there is a major shakeup of one of the other factors, such that investors remember SPC is thus linked.
Therefore, when SARS struck (2003), airlines affected, => aviation fuel down, SPC down. Petrol stations offer discounts=> motor gasoline margins down, SPC down. Freight charges up => SPC down.
Final note: In the market, sometimes for psychological tracking, you can use other counters as your tracking indicators. It?s a game of chess. Think Genting leading Ho Bee last week. So when there?s an airline/tourism shakeup, the counter controlling sentiment on SPC is SIA. When shipping is in the doldrums/up, the counters nominally controlling SPC will be freight cos like NOL.
But overall, SPC will appear to track oil, as well as the final, volatile constant to which oil is linked: global geopolitics. Think
There?s heck of a lot more; but I think this is info overload already. Hope it helps shed some light. J |
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| 05-Jan-2007 17:06 |
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shplayer...the connection is lg1167! :P |
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| 05-Jan-2007 17:05 |
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ah, retired. what a nice position to be in :) standard what private funds will advise for wealthy clients is 80% in FDs etc, 20% in equity. THe aim is actually capital protection, since it's assumed that such investors cannot afford to lose their nest egg, and are comfortable enough already. if you like only stocks, i personally think a good split is 50-80% in divvy plays (wait til correction ends before buying in pls), and keep some for playing. like all good singaporeans, we can't resist a flutter now and then. hehe. your divvy stocks should yield abt 5-8% returns y-o-y, which balances the risk from playing. good divvy stocks (that i've held before): SGX, st engg, smrt, singpost. you can also take a look at the S44 companies; tho what their payout will be is a guess. your hint *haha* will be if temasek or some such is a major holder, then the payout is likely to be higher. good luck! :) |
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| 05-Jan-2007 16:53 |
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?? eh? actually, i've never read that book. surelywin, introduce yourself! :) hehe btw, have you all noticed the nicks of some of the rest? quite a few have to do with money/cash, and a lot of lucky 8s. heh heh. Quite a few animals too!! there's a penguin and a koala-something! ahhhhh so cute, i wonder if i can have them as pets! wheeee.... haha. on a more serious note, looking at the genting post, em.. not to be a wet blanket, but i think a lot of small timers are gonna get caught. For their sakes i really hope not. |
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| 05-Jan-2007 16:48 |
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yep, but not currently. working full time job (and one or two part times haha) so not much time to monitor. free now 'cos still newbie to job. plus, i want to build up my seed fund first. when it's sufficient, then i'll consider diversifying. Otherwise, i believe that diversification reduces risk, but over-diversification dilutes rewards. act, i'm looking to buy land. prob hawaii. |
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