[  "..if you follow its trend, wld expect SPC to drop to ard 4.25 by today."  ]  


              -By Elfinchilde earlier today in this thread.


Now, she made that posting in the morning. Then the stock really dropped a unusual drastic 16c to 4.24 and closed at 4.26.


This is rather eery, man ... Spooky, huh?  


Wow! Elfin... I'm beginning to believe you're truly one of the enlightened ones in our midst in the flesh. 


Welcome to the Fellowship!
 

Shplayer?You hit it on the head already! It?s a point I?ve been trying to make all along: markets do not truly move on real fundamentals (of which SPC is solid, judging from its previous annual reports), they move on sentiment.

Caveat: This is going to be another long post. Only for those interested in a method of market analysis which might seem, in plain terms, damn weird to some. If so, feel free to treat this as hocus-pocus. J

For the uninitiated, I use TA, FA and world trends (which is just another term really for psychology). SPC: don?t bother with FA, it?s fundamentally sound but it never quite moves in accordance with it. TA will not work very well too since the sentiments on it can change in a single day because of political trouble and too many factors. So I?m going to dissect SPC here by analytical psychology:

1) REAL factors affecting the actual company SPC: http://www.spc.com.sg/our_activities/our_activities (see the diagram)

i)exploration and production?>discovery of new oil implies share price up. Crude prices affect profit proportionately.

ii)Products: crude pdts and oil; gas pipelines -> crude prices fall, SPC drop. Attack on or disruption of pipelinesàdrop in price.

iii)Bunker oil and fuelà warehouse, freight and shipping charges affect SPC.

iv)Motor gasoline and dieselàprice cuts in petrol stations, SPC drop.

v)Aviationàtourism, environmental diseases (SARS etc), airlines affect SPC.

à this is what I meant by too many factors, which will end up negating each other/cause uncertainty.

2) Psychological factors affecting SPC share price:

the key things bulk of investors remember about this counter, in order of importance: i)crude prices,

ii)aviation industry and petrol stations,

iii)freight charges.

Meaning: in a stable market with no scares, SPC will track the price of crude oil.

When SPC will deviate: when there is a major shakeup of one of the other factors, such that investors remember SPC is thus linked.

Therefore, when SARS struck (2003), airlines affected, => aviation fuel down, SPC down.

Petrol stations offer discounts=> motor gasoline margins down, SPC down.

Freight charges up => SPC down.

Final note: In the market, sometimes for psychological tracking, you can use other counters as your tracking indicators. It?s a game of chess. Think Genting leading Ho Bee last week. So when there?s an airline/tourism shakeup, the counter controlling sentiment on SPC is SIA. When shipping is in the doldrums/up, the counters nominally controlling SPC will be freight cos like NOL.

But overall, SPC will appear to track oil, as well as the final, volatile constant to which oil is linked: global geopolitics. Think Iran and Nigeria.

There?s heck of a lot more; but I think this is info overload already. Hope it helps shed some light. J