Only bullish counter on my screen now is Sunvic. But already too high to enter.
STI should be bearish as usual unless Hang Seng decides to perk up later.
Be back at 10am
epliew ( Date: 10-Feb-2011 09:05) Posted:
roger.
BullishTempo ( Date: 10-Feb-2011 09:03) Posted:
Don't go in.
Gap-down means something is wrong. |
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Singtel's yesterday's close is 3.09.
One bid covers commission.
3 to 5 bids above will be good for profit-taking.
BullishTempo ( Date: 10-Feb-2011 08:53) Posted:
The trend for SINGTEL will be up today, outperforming the broader market.
Time now is 8.53am. |
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Genting Singapore Plc S$2.09 Target: S$2.70 OUTPERFORM Maintained
Riding strong into FY11 Mkt.Cap: S$25,458m/US$19,990m
FY10 results preview
Maintain Outperform. We tweak our FY10 net profit forecast after factoring in lower
gross gaming revenue (GGR) following Marina Bay Sands’ 4Q10 weaker-thanexpected
GGR growth (on the back of a 20% qoq decline in VIP rolling). We still
expect Genting Singapore to clock in S$378m EBITDA for 4Q. We keep our FY11-12
GGR assumptions as we expect the opening of new attractions at Resorts World to
draw more visitors, in turn bumping up its casino patronage. GS remains an
OUTPERFORM with an unchanged SOP-based target price of S$2.70. We expect
stock catalysts from: 1) a speedier ramp-up of its operations 2) the licensing of junket
operators and 3) sustained leadership of the gaming pie in Singapore, now estimated
at S$4.7bn, down 3% from our original assumption.
Comments
EBITDA up 9% qoq. GS is expected to report FY10 earnings on 22 Feb. After our
earnings revision, we estimate a 4Q10 core net profit of S$230m, up 22% qoq as
seasonal strength should be offset by: 1) lower VIP rolling given the decline in MBS’s
VIP segment and 2) higher operating costs associated with the opening of new
attractions and other facilities at Resorts World. Nevertheless, we expect 4Q EBITDA
margin to improve 4% pts qoq to 46% as the VIP luck factor should be above its
theoretical level of 2.85% in 3Q10. Our 4Q EBITDA forecast is S$378m.
Strong mass-market appeal. We expect Resorts World to draw more visitors in 2011
with the opening of new attractions at Universal Studio Singapore. These include
Journey Madagascar (by mid-2011) and Transformers (by 3Q-2011). Battlestar
Gallactica would also be up-and-running again sometime in mid-February. The park
now has a daily visitor cap of 8,000. With the opening of more attractions,
management expects to lift the cap to 18,000 by end-2011, before raising it to 25,000
by 2012. In addition to Universal Studio, Resorts World will have three new attractions
in the West Zone: a maritime ‘Xperiential Museum’, the Equarius Water Park and a
marine life park, which will open in stages from mid-2011 to 2012. With the opening of
these attractions, we expect visitors to jump in 2011, which in turn could translate into
higher casino patronage and casino revenue. As such, we believe there is upside to
our FY11-12 daily-visitor projections of 12,730 and 15,300 respectively for Universal
Studio.
Pent-up demand to enlarge gaming pie in 2011-12. While we cut our FY10 gamingpie
assumption by 3% to S$4.7bn, we are keeping our FY11-12 GGR assumptions of
S$6.7bn and S$8.5bn respectively. We believe the 43% GGR growth in 2011 is
achievable under: 1) pent-up demand for gaming and high-end entertainment in
South-East Asia 2) the first full year of contributions from the two IRs and 3) a
continued ramp-up of operations at Resorts World. Our earnings estimates are at the
lower boundary of the S$6.5bn-8.5bn range estimated by the market.
With upside potential from junkets. Upside to our numbers is possible from the
licensing of junket operators and also if Resorts World can maintain its market
leadership over a longer period. Our S$6.7bn estimate implies that MBS would catch
up to muster 43% of the gaming market in 2011 from 35-40% now. But judging by
RWS’s execution so far, RWS could in fact fare better if MBS were slow to catch up.
Our sensitivity analysis shows that for every 1%-pt increase in RWS’s market share
from our base case, our FY11-12 earnings could be lifted by up to 2%.
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/Genting-0902111.pdf
Yes i also dunno what kind of trend this is, interchanging bull & bear since late Nov. Instability is the word. So far mostly bearish days post Jan New Year rally which was short lived.
When a person adds position to a stock, that person is doing averaging. Institutions do it all the time, at least the coach in Philips Capital does it himself, and he trains all the traders in Philips Capital.
Granted averaging up can only be done in bullish market conditions that is likely to have an uninterrupted bull run for a certain stretch of time, like what the Dow has done till today for the past 7 sessions.
Averaging down (shorting) can be done in a bearish market that is expected to continue its bear run for weeks or months to come. Think 2008 during the sub-prime crisis. That almost one full year of shorting the STI index would make you very rich indeed.
The trainer has told me how a trader shorted the STI index futures during the sub-prime crisis and kept on shorting lower and became a millionaire in that year.
Volume is what counts, averaging up in a bull market or averaging down (shorting) in a bear market, allows you to accumulate the volume you need.
However this technique only works in a market with a steady bull or bear trend. It won't work in a flat market, or a very volatile market that moves range-bound in a tight band.
Read : It won't work in STI market today, due to a lack of a clear trend.
Ok thats all for tonight. Sweet dreams!
iPunter ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 17:35) Posted:
A good trader is one who always bets 'kachang-puteh'...
A trader who " mau" , or averages up, or averages down
is never a good trader... for that is not strategic play in the first place.
It would be surprising if such a trader makes money (nett gain)...
But Gaecia is a good trader now... keep it up!... 
Gaecia ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 17:23) Posted:
| You so bad one, keep nudging us to lose money. i also kacang puteh gamer |
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1. Thanks for the trouble...
I have been searching high and low for
Bovril Beef Extract ever since they came out with this new 'version' which you mentioned.
I am sure many people buying it still have not yet realised it is not beef extract.
What I need is beef extract.
2. You are trading well as far as I can tell...
As long as you treat previous losses as passé,
and treat each trade as a new beginning (eg. not revenge),
you will not be tempted to "
mau" .
The game is really all about the "
Art of Gentle Losing" ...
Gaecia ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 18:01) Posted:
LOL You're kidding me, i'm still learning how to grab profits wif my butter fingers.
oh btw uncle ipunter, i found your beloved Bovril yesterday. Cold Storage stocks it, saw it at Serangoon Nex. Yeast version thou like vegemite. You can finally make some cracker sandwich, deck it up! Yummi.
see....i can remember things.  We friends or not? lol
iPunter ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 17:35) Posted:
A good trader is one who always bets 'kachang-puteh'...
A trader who " mau" , or averages up, or averages down
is never a good trader... for that is not strategic play in the first place.
It would be surprising if such a trader makes money (nett gain)...
But Gaecia is a good trader now... keep it up!...
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