china's gonna increase the interest rate soon anyway..
if our inflation here continues to go up.. sooner or later our interest rate will go up also..
this drop isnt panicking enough leh.. waiting for smth like last last friday when it dropped further after a huge fall.. the whole market went 'cold'..
cannotfind ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:54) Posted:
so many if ah.... if I win toto last week, I won't be here anymore
rotijai ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:49) Posted:
if china announces another interest rate hike this week and sg increases interest rate this month..
we will be seeing sti below 2900.. wooo |
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so many if ah.... if I win toto last week, I won't be here anymore
rotijai ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:49) Posted:
if china announces another interest rate hike this week and sg increases interest rate this month..
we will be seeing sti below 2900.. wooo |
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hey it it really hit 1.9 ....... 1.86 may come...
rotijai ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:44) Posted:
nop, not jumping in. queuing at 1.9 (i doubt i will get it today ) :P
may be more lau sai coming in the afternoon.
epliew ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:41) Posted:
don't be silly.
BT already gone for breakfast meaning.... no show....
gaecia looking at shorting....
don't jump in lah.... |
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nop, not jumping in. queuing at 1.9 (i doubt i will get it today ) :P
may be more lau sai coming in the afternoon.
epliew ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:41) Posted:
don't be silly.
BT already gone for breakfast meaning.... no show....
gaecia looking at shorting....
don't jump in lah.....
rotijai ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:17) Posted:
| wah.. gsp is strong still today.. |
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don't be silly.
BT already gone for breakfast meaning.... no show....
gaecia looking at shorting....
don't jump in lah.....
rotijai ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:17) Posted:
| wah.. gsp is strong still today.. |
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16 February 2011
Asian Daily
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. U.S. Disclosure: Credit
Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
Wilmar International ---------------------------------------------------------Maintain OUTPERFORM
Wilmar – A proxy to China
This is an excerpt from our Palm Oil report, What goes up must come
down, dated 16 February 2011. Wilmar is the only stock in the palm oil
space with an OUTPERFORM rating.
Erring on the conservative side. We have revised up our palm oil
price assumption to RM2,950 (from RM2,300) in FY 2011 and have
maintained it at RM2,500 in FY 2012. As upstream plantations
accounts for less than one quarter of its total profits, this revision has
a minimal impact on Wilmar. We have decided to err on the
conservative side and have pared down our FY10-12 earnings
forecasts by 6-10%. As a result, we have revised down Wilmar’s
target price to S$6.40 (from S$6.60). The new target price is based on
a P/E blend of 17.3x versus 18.7x previously.
Wilmar has underperformed by 4.5% since it announced its
maiden foray into property development in China. Wilmar (via a
35% associate) has co-invested with Kerry Properties (40% stake)
and Shangri-la Asia (25% stake) to venture into property development
in Tier 2 and 3 cities in China. The JV will continue to bid for other
property sites in the future. It is not surprising that the market reacted
negatively, since it is seen to be diversifying from its core
competencies. In reality, the impact on Wilmar should be minimal as:
(1) it is only a 35% associate stake, (2) the investment is less than 3%
of Wilmar’s NAV and (3) plantation companies have traditionally been
involved in property development e.g. IOI Corp and Sime Darby.
Market is more worried about its oilseed and consumer divisions.
We believe that the market is more worried about Wilmar's future
profitability rather than its foray into the property business in China.
We believe Wilmar’s share price has been hit for the following
reasons: (1) there will be continued government interference in China
to curb rising commodity prices after China reported rising inflation,
(2) the market is worried that Wilmar has not unwound the lossmaking
positions which led to its poor 3Q10 results.
Interest will return when China is back in favour. Wilmar is a proxy
to China, and we believe that interest in the stock will only return when
China is back in favour. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating,
believing in Wilmar’s long-term strategy in China. Based on our
estimates, Wilmar trades at FY11 and FY12 P/Es of 16.3x and 14.5x,
respectively.
artng25 ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:22) Posted:
February 16, 2011
EARNINGS PREVIEW
Wilmar International (WLIL.SI)
Neutral Equity Research
4Q 2010E: lowered consensus expectations limit downside risks
What we expect
We lower 2010-2012E EPS by 3%-7%, due to lower Palm & Laurics volumes
(industry crude palm oil (CPO) production has been lower than expected),
lower Consumer Products margins (cooking oil prices have not been raised
despite rising soyoil prices) and lower Oilseed & Grains margins (due to
hedging - Wilmar’s domestic competitors tend not to hedge, may benefit from
the rise in soybean prices and hence undercut industry crush margins). This is
partially offset by higher CPO prices. Our 2010E forecasts now imply trough
margins for Oilseeds & Grains and Consumer Products in 4Q10, while Palm &
Laurics margins should still be strong on high CPO prices. We lower our
Director’s Cut based 12-mo TP to S$6.00 (prior S$6.25) and maintain Neutral.
Risks include lower than expected profit margins.
We expect 4Q2010 results next week on Feb 23, 2011 and are now
forecasting US$ 430mn in net profit for 4Q 2010 (while Bloomberg
consensus implies US$ 365mn).
What could surprise us
The stock price has lost 16% over the last 3mths, underperforming the market
by 12%. The market has been concerned on weak profit margins in 4Q2010,
but with the recent consensus earnings downgrades (down 25% over the last
3 months), we believe Wilmar is unlikely to disappoint the lowered
expectations and hence downside risks may be more limited. The market may
also react positively if the company announces a cooking oil price increase.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow
the Reg AC certification, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.
Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as
research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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Any stock is shortable (or buyable)...
All is betting...
But make sure to short only when it is in demand at the top end...
because if you short when it is in demand at the bottom end,
you may easily 'get the daylight whacked out of you' by the market...
Gaecia ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:11) Posted:
ipunter expert, do u think wilmar is shortable? 
does anyone knows when is wilmar reporting FY2010?
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:52) Posted:
That is true...
And these are not contra players.
Because contra players usually lose less than cash players...
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wah.. gsp is strong still today..
gmg ivory coast prob again. so sian never ending. Genting I think someone trying to collect la.
flekzout ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:49) Posted:
yeah T_T I'm wondering when this gmg and genting hk will stop falling... I think I want to buy again to balance the lost.. then I can sell after it goes up a bit..
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:38) Posted:
You are not the only one...
There are many, many others who are in the same boat...
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Not spilling cold water. Just beware of this stock dropping sharply. It might make a move more than you can imagine. Look at the chart and guess how much it could fall. It is scary!
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:03) Posted:
It is a basic concept (and reality) of chart reading,
otherwise known as 'technical analysis'.. .
flekzout ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:01) Posted:
| lol.. whats that trend and trending??? |
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ipunter expert, do u think wilmar is shortable?
does anyone knows when is wilmar reporting FY2010?
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:52) Posted:
That is true...
And these are not contra players.
Because contra players usually lose less than cash players...
hotokee ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:49) Posted:
This is true for many Singaporean stock players.
My next door business associate continues to lose everytime. Since the beginning of this year, I watched this happened and understand this associate lost at $20K in and out of one good counter. When buy the market never went up, and when due date had to sell to see the share prices spike a bit. Then " buaykumguan" enters again to lose again.
Shares difficult to play, so do be careful. |
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It is a basic concept (and reality) of chart reading,
otherwise known as 'technical analysis'.. .
flekzout ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 11:01) Posted:
lol.. whats that trend and trending???
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:55) Posted:
You need to first wake up to the idea of " trend" and " trending" ...
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lol.. whats that trend and trending???
iPunter ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:55) Posted:
You need to first wake up to the idea of " trend" and " trending" ...
flekzout ( Date: 22-Feb-2011 10:49) Posted:
| yeah T_T I'm wondering when this gmg and genting hk will stop falling... I think I want to buy again to balance the lost.. then I can sell after it goes up a bit. |
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