Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Thanks guys, your replies give me that little more confidence.

Bought 20 lots this morning into China HongX at $1.22 and just managed to bailed myself out of jail at $1.28 with a small profit of $1,024 (not wanting to wait for higher price as it's only an hour left where the trading will be fast and furious...i coward out )

Good Luck all

 

psycho...i like ur analysis.. 

Sti does appear to be stuck in deciding where to move....


 

 

Dear Psych... :)

For a "virgin" trader, it is amazing that you can come out with such good market logic...
With your analytic strategy approach I have not the slightest doubt that you will be ahead in the game...

 Happy trading, Sir...
 

 

2007-11-5   07:36:00 p.m. HKT, XFNA Hong Kong's HSI to fall below 25,000 midterm, caution advised - Morgan Stanley

HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) - Morgan Stanley on Monday reiterated its cautious view on the Hong Kong stock market, saying the main index is likely to fall below 25,000 in the medium-term. Hong Kong shares nose-dived on Monday, with the key Hang Seng Index recording its largest one-day point fall ever, following news that the launch of a program which would allow mainland citizens to buy Hong Kong stocks directly will be delayed again. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao over the weekend set four conditions for implementation of the individual investment program, dubbed the ""through train"" to Hong Kong, which the market interpreted to mean the scheme may have been put on the back burner for now. The main index tumbled 1,526.02 points, or 5 percent, to 28,942.32, ending off an intra-day low of 28,920.30 in the afternoon session. This was the first time the HSI fell below 29,000 in two weeks. Morgan Stanley said the index may find support at 27,000 in the short-term but that in the medium-term, it expects the Hang Seng to drop below 25,000. The current market volatility should not impact experienced institutional investors as much as it would affect retail investors, the brokerage said. ""Many of them (retail investors) have only experienced a three-year bull run in China and a few great months in Hong Kong,"" said Rob Hart, an analyst with Morgan Stanley. ""The market is unlikely to be pushed down by institutional sales, as most of the 70 accounts I have met over the past two weeks are neutral on the market and are still getting fund inflows,"" he said. But it could be pushed down by retail investors, who account for 26 percent of the Hong Kong market turnover, as punters realize that a 2 percent real loss on bank savings is better than a much larger loss in the stock market, said Hart. The much-anticipated launch of the ""through train"" investment scheme, first announced by the Chinese government on August 20, sent the Hong Kong market on overdrive on hopes of greater capital inflow from the mainland. The Hang Seng Index soared from 20,300 mid-August to almost 32,000 last week. The brokerage house said the next big trigger that could cause the local market to dive would be a likely slowdown in the China property market arising from oversuppply. Developers exposed to the mainland property market had built up huge landbanks from 2006 onwards. Real estate prices and property stocks in China have been gaining sharply recently, as money earned in the stock market is ploughed into realty investments.

 

You are correct in your assumption Mr Mani, as my previous post stated, these days are made for intra days traders/speculators, so i just put my studies and learning skills into real test, in fact, it's my first, a 'virgin' entry into the market.

I thank you for your kind concern and advice, i did my calculations and understand that a single bid down could cost me more than even 2 bids up, but then, i feel i got to start some where if i were to have the faith and believing in my own analysis.

Example : 20 lots of China XLX at $1.27 = $25,400.

Exit at $1.26 will cost me $377.32

Exit at $1.29 makes me a mere profit of only $220.58

Worst scenerio, i pay up on T + 3 if my confidence level of the purchased counter rising is high.Of course, i am also prepared to cut losses at a predetermine bid price being worked out prior to my entry. 

I am just putting aside a small amount to 'test', before i am confident enough to go big. My observation also shows the likes of YZJ, Biosensor, China HongX and Uni-Asia moving in the same pattern too. By the way, i am only selecting a few counters under the radar of my watchlists.

I could be correct this time and wrong in the longer term but i am willing to give it a go until the small sum that i put aside is being totally exhausted, and proved that i was wrong in creating my new technique.

Anyway, thanks for your kind reply in assisting and explaining to a learner and hope you have your good profitable days ahead too.

G' Nite

 

I believe what you are doing is intra-day momentum trading...

but then, with the miniscule profit and big risk, what's the point of it, even if it's a 'test'? One could have lost too instead making... 

 

Dear Ms Singaporegal and Mr Mani, i have no arguements about low volumes traded (2+ billions) nor neither do i have any disagreement that market isn't bearish (i am still sticking to my own analysis that it's only going through a new transitional change).

What actually puzzles me is : with such low traded volumes, why is it so that the "price swing gap" in almost all hotly traded counters are pretty wide and they seemingly move up or down without much resistances.

One example was i bought into ARA ($1.18) today at about 4.35pm, held my breath and managed to sold off ($1.21) at about 4.59pm (very small amount just to test my analysis).

Would greatly appreciate if you or any one could enlighten a guy who is learning each day.

Thanks

 

I agree with Singaporegal... :)

The trend of the BT CADI  is excellent for determining the flow of money in/out of the market...

 

total volumes traded on SGX are pretty low today. I don't think it is a bear market - yet.

 

STI might be coming down but there are stocks out there that one can buy

 

What about this one...maybe it sounded familar....

26-Oct-2007 21:54

Nasdaq up 2% at open  Good news Ya !!! from microsoft DOW +80.31 13,752.23 +0.59%   Then and now....Merrill's (Charts, Fortune 500) CEO is already feeling pressured after the bank took a massive $7.9 billion writedown in the third quarter related to bad mortgage bets. The losses were far greater than the $5 billion the company had initially estimated., Here..... S'pore banks reeled in as S&P cuts rating for 2 debt instruments managed by UOB, OCBC The world is bracing itself for more aftershocks from the global cerdit crunch after US Investment Bank Merrill Lynch write-down S$11.6 billion.

 

STI surprised us today.. 

Here is the next surprise.. W'll see how STI surprise us again on resignation of CEO which historically it often causes share price to go Up not Down.. Let's see how it goes this time..

Surprise.. surprise.. surprise..

 

Like this one.....

teeth53

Posted: 02-Nov-2007 23:49

Regionally we painted a rosy picture, while Wall Street just realized something is not very right with their economic.....and was concerns about their earnings and downside in their finanicals.   Coming to Wall Street - a $10B hit (rising cash >30 billions to shore up it capital and Exxcon Mobile's earning missed analayst estimate.  Deutsche Bank analyst sees mortgage fallout affecting earnings through end of year; Merrill, Citi to be hit hardest. (more)

Stocks set to take a hit (Oredi been hit)

Citigroup's latest troubles likely to send markets into tailspin at open.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were set to take a drubbing at Monday's open after the credit crunch claimed the top executive at Citigroup, which sees billions more in subprime mortgage writedowns.

 

Me advicing myself through my learning stage, never try catching a falling knife now, it might takes a while for sti to form a normal pattern, jan 2008 should be a testing time when new bid sizes kick in. The market seems to be made for the intra day traders/speculators and those sidelined with holding power.

 

Remember in my earlier post a few days ago when US market crashed, I said it was not a time to buy..... 

 

05-11-2007 15:28:04
UPDATE 2-China tells funds to trim HK stock exposure-sources



(Adds more details, background) By Victoria Bi and George Chen SHANGHAI, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Beijing has told asset managers preparing to launch overseas stock investment funds to cut their exposure to Hong Kong due to fears that share prices in the city may overheat, sources close to the matter said on Monday.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has instructed several local fund houses to revise the structure of their overseas stock investment products and resubmit proposals with a lower exposure to Hong Kong stocks, the sources said.

Chinese fund houses and banks are jostling to launch overseas stock funds under the country's Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme, aimed at giving Chinese more investment opportunities and to promote a better balance in its international payments.

"Several QDII applicants have been told to change their products. This is apparently aimed at avoiding a shock to the Hong Kong stock market," a fund industry source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Hong Kong-listed stocks, particularly shares issued by mainland Chinese firms, have soared this year, mainly on expectations of big fund inflows from the mainland.

Separately from the QDII scheme, which targets institutions, Beijing has also proposed a "through train" programme that would allow mainland residents to invest directly in Hong Kong stocks.

APPLICATION REJECTED But, in a sign of Beijing's concern that a sudden influx of mainland money could cause turmoil in Hong Kong's stock market, Premier Wen Jiabao said at the weekend that Beijing was still studying the "through train" proposal.

His comments triggered a slide in Hong Kong stocks on Monday, with the blue-chip Hang Seng Index <.HSI> falling more than 2.8 percent. An index tracking mainland Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong tumbled more than 4 percent.

"The CSRC is requiring all QDII fund issuers, no matter whether they are banks or mutual funds, to keep their investment ratio of Hong Kong stocks under control," another of the sources told Reuters.

Authorities have just rejected an application by a Shanghai-based mutual fund company to launch a QDII fund designed to invest more than 80 percent of its proceeds in Hong Kong stocks, the sources said.

A foreign bank in China has also been told by the CSRC to revise a QDII product previously designed to target only Hong Kong stocks, they said.

This year, four Chinese fund houses, including JPMorgan's China fund venture and Deutsche Bank's China fund arm, have raised a combined $16 billion under the QDII scheme, which was launched in April 2006.

A large portion of the proceeds has been pumped into Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks, most of which are trading at a hefty discount to their mainland-listed counterparts.

For example, the $4 billion QDII fund launched by China Southern Fund Management Co can invest up to 40 percent of its proceeds in Hong Kong-listed stocks.

Another six fund firms, including a venture co-owned by Belgian-Dutch financial services group Fortis and the Chinese fund ventures of Credit Suisse and DBS , have also received approvals for QDII stock launches.

A number of major domestic brokerages have also obtained QDII licences over the past few months.

Vincent Chan, head of China research at Credit Suisse, said in a recent article that Chinese financial firms, including funds, brokerages and banks, might invest a combined $21 billion in overseas markets over the next 12-18 months.

Currently, Chinese fund management firms are allowed to raise a maximum of $4 billion for each of such QDII funds from initial public offerings. The quota can be expanded to $5 billion through additional offers, industry officials say.

 

hi singaporegal,

 may i seek your advice as to the range that the sti will settle at?

i'm kinda clueless....any indicators I should look out for?

 

Sgal, you're right. STI is quite "Mm sah mm see" (Bu4 San1 Bu4 Si4) today.

 

Looks like another aimless day ahead

 

I might be wrong but it seems that sti is going into a transitional change of a different kind (like HK in 1973, 1977, 1987 etc) ever since singapore goes global and wanting to be a financial hub, reading into historical charts don't seem to work so accurately any longer and hence we simply called it unpredictable or volatile. I am quite sure after some times when the dust settles, we might be able to see a new sti pattern, mean time, perhaps just bite the bullet and weather the 'unknown storm' ahead....be it up or down.