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All in all, hurricane ahead! Stay clear or mitigate any losses.
senior, it is not the matter of FEAR but many took the advantages of current "bad news" to create a sentiment of selling so that they can SHORT to get profit...
in any market condition, trader and BBs can make big profit.. WHAT THEY WANT IS TO INJECT THE THINKING AND ALL OF YOU (I mean averange people) START TO FALL INTO THEIR TRAP
more bad news is good news!!!.. inject FEAR.. panic sell..margin call... make shares cheap.. so i can pick up some good value shares...
hang on folks to those who share my views...
december rally coming.. wait for good entry level..
CWQuah,
wrong predicition again how?
not pointing at you personally, just have fun joking ard k?
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s third-biggest bank, wrote down about 1.3 billion pounds ($2.7 billion) on credit-related securities tied to the U.S. subprime-mortgage market collapse.
$40 Billion Loss
The world's largest securities firms and banks have announced more than $40 billion of losses in the third and fourth quarters losses from writedowns of collateralized debt obligations and other debt backed by mortgages to people with poor credit. The writedowns prompted the resignations of CEOs at New York-based Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.
Looks like we have not reach bottom yet...
While he was a Wall Street star, Graham became a legend in the world of value investing because of his research in the markets and his approach to selecting stocks. Driven by the 1929 market crash in which Graham nearly lost all of his capital, he set out to develop comprehensive fundamental analysis techniques that could be used by both retail investors and stock market professionals to improve investing success and minimize company risk. Thanks to Graham, the current and widely familiar concepts such as price-to-earnings ratios (P/E ratios), dividends, debt-to-equity, book value and earnings growth became mainstream in fundamental research.
His findings in fundamental research were detailed in his masterpiece, Security Analysis (published in 1934), which was co-authored with David Dodd, and The Intelligent Investor (1949), a book that Warren Buffett acknowledged as "by far the best book about investing ever written." To this day, these books are considered the ?Bibles? of investing.
The premise of Graham?s investing philosophy is based on his belief that there is a major difference between investing and speculating. Graham wrote, "An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."
Graham emphasized the idea of ?intrinsic value? by searching for and buying only those stocks that trade at a discount to their intrinsic value. By adhering to this principle, investors can minimize the risk by adopting a "margin of safety" and buying only those stocks that are deemed to have excellent value. The teachings have clearly proven over time that they work, as Graham?s investments returned an average of 17% per year from 1929 to 1956.
When looking at companies to invest in, Graham emphasized that investors should approach potential investments in stocks as part ownership in companies. The investor should have a long-term perspective and ignore the short-term volatility in the stock.
In the world of investing, Graham was on the defensive. His criteria for the defensive investor included the following tenets, based on The Intelligent Investor:
· Look for large companies since they have the "capital and brain power" to succeed regardless of what might arise in the markets. Based on the dollar value in 1950, Graham advised screening for industrial companies with a market cap in excess of $100 million and public utilities with total assets over $50 million.
- The company?s current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) for industrial firms should be over 2.0 for the defensive investor, which is still regarded as the standard today. For the less defensive investor, the current ratio should be at least 1.5, but long-term debt should not exceed 110% of net current assets.
- Earnings should be positive for 10 straight years (there can be exceptions, yet the last five straight years must have positive earnings).
- For the defensive investor, dividends should be in place for at least the last 20 years. For other investors, dividends only need to be maintained at the same level.
- Earnings need to grow at least a minimum of one-third of the company?s per share earnings over 10 years, or about 3% annual growth, for the defensive investor. For other investors, earnings in the most recent year need to be greater than five years ago.
- P/E ratio over the last three years should be below 15. For the non-defensive investor, the P/E ratio should be in the bottom 10% of all stocks.
- For the defensive investor, the price-to-book ratio should be below 1.5. The value of the P/E ratio multiplied by the price-to-book ratio should not be greater than 22.5.
Stop expecting anything too good
Thought of the day.
The word HEALTH means WHOLE.
Our deepest health lies in our inherent completeness ,integration and connectedness.
Much of the time rather than feeling whole we may feel fragmented and disconnected and therefore unhealthy
Contrast our predicament with the haiku of Issa;
In the cherry blossom's shade
there is no such thing
as a stranger.
The 3500 level is of interest today. Expect the STI to fluctuate between 3434 to 3518 for this week, unlikely to see much more breakthrough for this week unless the US economic news coming out later tonight is bullish.
For next week, hopefully STI penetrates 3545 level convincingly, that would mark the possible start of the next uptrend.
STI short term up to correct oversold position.
Target on upside about 3750- 3800 -only for the brave souls
Downside risk about 3450
PPO still pointing up and correcting oversold market.
Sentiment is however bearish
End of wave a and commencement of wave b?
Go and see the dow weekly chart leh. See if u still dare to buy at this moment..
Dow theory-bull market sitting on knifes edge.
Short term market up to correct oversold position
Reply to farmer, go for agriculture. Go for IndoAgri. Look very promising. CIMB maintained this counter outperform.
STI will go thru one more jialat jialat correction... hit the bottom... STI >2 % rise just take profit... use the money and buy when there's a >2-3% dip..
if no dip..which is damn unlikely..then let those herd instincts players push the market sky high.. don't get involved..be safe..no sorry
contrarian approach..
My guess for STI movements after lunch - upswing again, Europe will open with a gap up. Then uncertainty, and then STI will probably close around 3545. Quite unlikely to close above 3545 because of a short-term resistance from 61.8% Fibo, and previous low around 3542 (21 Sep).
Hee Cashiertan,
Yesterday I got my prediction wrong because I didn't read and analyse my indicators properly, and was too mindset with previous support levels.
Then the BBs came in and decided to push STI down to its 50% Fibo level (2961-3905) at 3434. Jumped the gun.
But learnt quite a bit though from yesterday's move - stick to the principles behind the indicators and don't accept false signals so easily. Get a few other confirmation signals. And be aware that no trading system is perfect, i.e. it's important to know the limitations of your indicators.
Afternoon movement sometimes can be very volatile and hard to predict, because a lot more factors kick in. E.g. Nikkei 225 closing, European market opening, post-lunch break trading effects on STI.
You are right... :)
It's just like those green flies we used to see swarming over the cow dung spilled by the cows that used to glaze in the fields in the olden days...When scared away, the green flies will all quickly disappear.
But soon enough, they will all return in swarms to the cow dung patches and start savouring it again...
You are right... :)
d to see swarming over the cowdung spilled by the cows that used to glaze in the fields in the olden days...
When scared away, the green flies will all quickly disappear.
But soon enough, they will all return in swarms to the cow dung patches and start savouring it again...