Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

You are right...

Well, they are bulls simply because they are anxious to make money fast...

 

before a bear come there must be at least 5 bulls

currently we have encounter 3 out of the 5 bulls.

 

 

If such is the case, then I suppose the funds should have already started to pull out...
by selling in retail bits from their large holdings... this will also help somewhat in their year-end
window dressing too...


and guess who the buyers will be... well they are the 'still very warm frogs'...  of course...

 

fyi internal talk from two fund houses/banks: this is the last leg of the bull. thereafter, it's a bear (what i had earlier said about the picture being clear long term--ie, 2008). tallies with all the tech picture and macro trends.

this will be a rally on thin volume. shark eat shark situation already. so pls do know your own risk appetite, and play accordingly. if one cannot afford to play this nov-jan period, really, it is wiser to stay out and wait for the bear of 08, and then all the leisure to cherry pick the blues at PROPER valuations. If one has the funds, it's the best time to build up a solid portfolio for years, rather than punting all the time.

simple historical logic: sti is overpriced. our book to price ratio is 2.6x. the average is 2.3x. in the last 11 Fed cuts of the past century, 2 occurred when our ratio was above the average. both times, after the first Fed cut, the market hits a new low. Wouldn't expect this time to be dif; just that the low will be delayed, because the Fed has learnt the value of successive cuts.

bottomline: play til early/mid jan for capricorn effect, then get out.  when a bear market is in, really, no such thing as a 'safe' stock. spore stocks are too dependent on foreign funds. so no matter how good a spore company is, if foreign funds have no money and pull out, then, the stock only has one way to go. doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

caveat emptor applies as usual. let the market walk the talk. proof is in the practical, not the theoretical.

 

Rate cut= economy bad= sell the rallies.

Remember 2001 when rate cut started- the bear market  lasted till 2003 

 

It is interesting that sometimes you sell a share and the price shoots up immediately after that.... I've encountered that several times. My fil will say aiyoh why you sell so early... again I will tell him at least I make some $. Any $ make is a gain although it is really kopi $.

After the emotional upheaval over the past weeks with the dow jones and stock losing much of its value and seeing my portfolio increasing by $8k today, I am happy to regain my capital in some situation.

Depending on dow tonite, probably some slight rally till 11th Dec? then after that the excitement dies down. Or with yr end coming and all the window dressing, there are some hope in that.

 

 

 

well, i dont think fri will be a good day to trade...

 

Today, mkt very slow leh with small volume traded...I think this bull is stale. Watch it!

 

market is always right, and we listen only to market, and we challenge anyone to prove that market is wrong or is better than market  :)...good luck trading...cheers :)

 

as said before market will move higher high till 14/18th January 2008 from 26th November and buy on dip...good luck :)

 

hi loyfam, good thinking, and i am quite sure the mkt will react like what you said in a few days time; ie some will sell to keep cash. That is the time you buy on dip!

As for me, i am too greedy, already started accumalating yesterday.

Best wishes

 

Joyfam88... :)


hahaha... this is a phenomenon as old as the stock market itself!!!

ie. When stocks rise, all fear and worries instantly disappear, and people won't sell...
When stocks fall heavily, great nail-biting and hair-pulling and trembling fear is experienced ...

The stock market is truly an arena of pure emotional stuff... hehehe...

Why not wisen up by getting this "great guidance manual" ?

 

Personally I am still concerned if the increase today is sustainable as the Dow future don't seem to be giving a good indication.

I am wondering if I should make use of this opportunity when some of the shares start to breakeven and cash in on that to keep cash. As it's better to make $0.10 than to lose $.

 

 

problem now is will it cover the gap?

 

I think it will end up today.

 

One month ago I urged everyone to sell on strength.

Now i think it's time to Buy on dip. If STI can hold on to it's near 3% gain till closing bell with high Vol, i think this will signal a cul-de-sac of the bear.

 

 

so what you guys saying is STI will dip afternoon and Friday (tomorrow) is downside !!

DJ future has no strong indication down or up to night

STI is weak and many sideliner watching....

hope to hear from you guys for some advises

thanks

 

still the same call and nothing much to say (buy on dip as market will try higher high) and let the market prove it...good luck

 

Senior

Posted: 22-Nov-2007 12:11

x 0 x 0 * Alert Admin

certainty is back to market and recovery will start from 26th November 2007 till 14/18 January 2008....buy on any dip for recovery as market will try higher high (rather than lower low from 15th Oct - 23rd November, and higher high for 23rd August - 15th October)....as always said, market will be the best judge for our call (see now around 3300 plus and in 14/18 January 2008 the index)....good luck :)

 

Yeah Mr Mani

Hope at the end of the day, we can shout YUM SING, YUM SING, YUM SING! ...

 

Best to cut some positions, market sure to go down in the afternoon... friday coming...