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You are being a bit on the pessimistic side. Actually I'm quite sure that the senario that you have painted won't happen so soon. Not when F1, IR and Yog Olmp is on the pipeline. All this will bring attention to our economy, and perhap form a certain resistant level for the STI index instead. So, how low will index go before it rebound? That is the question.
Cathylmg,
You've asked probably the hardest question even Warren Buffett could hardly answer.
My guess... when all the news and trading community is at the extreme bearish end of the sentiment, i.e. you read about major plunge in indices worldwide, traders getting very pessimistic, people writing about their losses etc, even some contemplating suicide... (hope not), and the index has dropped so dramatically low (talking about 150 - 200 pt swings in a day for a few days with the net result being like -300-450 pts), then PERHAPS ..... the bottom is near.
When will index bottom?
as a trader...its a very boring day today...ah...sianz...no volume no action
looking at the current STI charts...climbing up from panic sell down this morning...however the region...HSI and NIKKEI very red leh...
i see my screen of stocks on the watchlist....its so volatile too! really clueless not even knowing to short or long today....so staying out
I guess investors are not as jubilant as our youth Olympic committee. Today's Zaobao headline is Singapore wins!!! Well good for her but my pocket money is in the stock market. Oh, so sad for me.
volumes these two days very thin lah...i think for ppl who wishes to short the market also need to think twice...
YOG is in 2010 and the impact will be felt gradually unlike Dow which is at your doorsteps....
Anyway, YOG will benefits only certain sectors then.....not all....
will we rally due to YOG or will we free fall due to DOW being negative? 
yes looking ahead we are all very excited with the YOG win...it will somehow affect the psychology of trading too as this is one major event tt we anticipated and finally clinched...however the DOW is still wad we look up to primarily at the moment...
Singapore has beaten Moscow to win the bid to host the inaugural 2010 Youth Olympic Games (YOG).
This was announced on Thursday via satellite from the IOC headquarters in Lausanne, Switzerland.
another good news for singapore economy
Reported singapore has wholesale trade up 22% in Q4. Can you bet what will happen for 1Q2008?
Lets hear what the expert have to say : Courtesy of AMFraser
MARKET VIEW - RETAIL RESEARCH
Yesterday?s sharp fall a stark reminder that worst is not over yet and players must not be carried away by market rebounds. Trading chances remain in our list of 8 blue chips.
On hindsight, it was too premature to forecast a test of the 3140-60 STI resistance and it would have been sound advice to take profits once the index crosses 3100 and not to rush in when shares start to fall.
This is especially so in the light of the string of losses since last November incurred by traders who had foolishly bought shares when rebounds were about to end.
Even those who had bought too early during market plunges had ended up with losses, a telling signal to those foolish players who jumped in at the tail end of technical rebounds hoping to see an extended rally.
Also the market?s defiance of so called ?bullish? occasions have been too well known this time and even though there was a replay of the last few years? Budget rally this time, it must also be remembered that big falls often took place soon after.
After all, the market had already skipped the traditional year-end/new year rally as well as CNY rally and there is no ?bullish? occasion for another traditional run-up perhaps until around August 9 National Day.
The 3050-60 support had been breached when the STI fell to as low as 3019 yesterday, near the 38.2% mark of its 267-point or 9.3% rally from 2859 to 3126.
With the index settling in some 20-30 points on either side of 3050, a sort of neutral zone, traders will have a hard time. But 2 things are quite certain. One when the STI falls below 3000 accumulation could begin as experienced shows that it will go back above 3000 after 3-4 days below that psychological mark.
However it can still go deep below 3000 as seen when it plunged first to 2932 on CNY eve Feb 6 and then to as low as 2859 when market reopened on Feb 11. Of course this was the best trading chance and when the STI recovered to 2950 in the following 2 days, we had called for a rebound to 3050-3100, which came true.
Of course we got carried away and expected 3160 to be tested this week and possible continuation of the rally and to near 3300 before another major correction around before mid-year.
Nevertheless our list of 8 blue chips had done well after our Feb 11 and Feb 12 buy calls when the STI was around its year?s lows of 2870-2900 led by Wilmar and SingTel.
Wilmar ($4.80) has overshot our $4.30-40 target while SingTel ($3.86) has passed $4 to $4.05 and continues to be a trading buy ranging around $3.70-80 to $4-$4.10. Wilmar?s support is now around $4.50-60 as it positions itself for further run-up past $5 to $5.30-50 in view of record CPO prices.
DBS ($17.90) was $16.74 then and has also overshot our $18 sell target reaching $18.46. It should find support around $17.50 now and could test the latest highs soon.
UOB ($18.20) was $17.04 and rallied to $18.50 this week. Support is now around $17.70.
SGX ($9.08) remains a tricky stock as it held up well at $8.80-$9 that time but rebounded to only $9.50-65, indicating heightened market uncertainties. It should be a buy around $8.80-90.
Keppel ($10.44) dipped below our $9.80-$10 support to $9.76 and has moved back to old $10.70-$11 support. Buying on weakness towards $10.20 is called for as it could move back to $11.
City ($11.74) was picked at $11.26 and rallied to $12.38 with new higher support now at $11.50-60 and it should rally back to near $12.50 by the results release in a week?s time.
SIA ($15.56) was at $15.26 then, moving up to $16.18 and should continue to be well support at $15.-$15.20. Rebounds to above $16 call for profit-taking.
European markets open in positive territory, that should lend some support to STI for the rest of today's trading.
| INDEX | VALUE | CHANGE | TIME | |
| DJ EURO STOXX 50 ? Pr | 3,793.23 | 34.76 | 0.92% | 03:07 |
| FTSE 100 INDEX | 5,938.40 | 44.80 | 0.76% | 03:06 |
| CAC 40 INDEX | 4,844.20 | 31.39 | 0.65% | 03:22 |
| DAX INDEX | 6,971.83 | 72.15 | 1.05% | 03:06 |
| IBEX 35 INDEX | 13,190.50 | 110.10 | 0.84% | 03:06 |
| S&P/MIB INDEX | 33,816.00 | -304.00 | -0.89% | 02/20 |
| AMSTERDAM EXCHANGES INDX | 450.16 | 3.47 | 0.78% | 03:22 |
| OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX | 960.28 | 5.75 | 0.60% | 03:21 |
| SWISS MARKET INDEX | 7,478.32 | 96.74 | 1.31% | 03:21 |
Asian market is supported by the growth of regional economy. Recession is already there, but the effect won't be so hard, since regional market is now has been strongger. The issue we need to concern is the market fear.
People still think that US market has the biggest contribution to the global economy.
Here is some news to digest
HSBC Holdings Plc and Citigroup Inc. led banks bailing out their SIVs, funds that use short-term borrowing to buy higher- yielding assets, after the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgages caused investors to shun debt securities that couldn't be valued. SIV assets have shrunk by $100 billion from $400 billion since August, according to Moody's Investors Service.
The USA has printed and paid for goods with paper currency which is fast losing value.
She has distributed the dollar worldwide and also exotic derivatives which nobody understands .
The USA problem has now become a worldwide problem.
Expect a protracted recession.
Fed sees economy slowing
Central bank cuts growth forecast and sees higher unemployment but hints at more rate cuts ahead to keep economy from recession.
you r right.
Every time US cough, Asia catch a cold. Yesterday it was KKR and the whole Asia kanan kabok. Actually very very easy for US funds to make money in Asia. Buffet, Sorros not that great after all. What makes them ??? Asians
