Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Hope all got out earlier. Didn't expect the drop to be so fast. Looks like BBs didnt even wanna test 3100.

 

seeing a lot of BB work on a lot of counters. slow distribution masked by one/small lot buy ups. when you track counterparty, it's consistent who's selling. All the foreign names. Plus some local boys.

Take care. In short term play, when (the same) analysts issue a spate of buy calls following a sudden run up, market still holds constant, vols thin, dow futures down, see busd consistently showing large sells but small buys, thin vols, only two words:

siam ahhh.

don't know how today will close, but tomorrow likely down. caveat emptor.

 

looks like 2700 is possible in the not to far months ahead....by then DBS shd be $14-$15 then buy avoid S'pore stocks for the time being

 

Watch out for likely peak today around 3098-3104.

 

Pls take some profits now. 3083.

 

A small rally may be starting  right NOW.

 

volumes very low again...just saw a Yahoo Finance report that the US Markets also experiencing the low trading volumes...

wonder how STI will perform today after so many days in the green....we might be staying cautious over here 

 

How will this affect our STI? will it? :


 From Business Times:

SINGAPORE - The Singapore dollar climbed on Wednesday to a fresh 11-year high against the US dollar which also slid against other regional currencies following weak US economic data, dealers said.

They said Asian currencies gained as players bet on further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to try to ward off the threat of recession in the world's largest economy.

In afternoon trade the Singapore unit was at 1.3997 after touching a high of 1.3993, and compared with 1.4049 on Tuesday.

Vishnu Varathan, a currency analyst at Forecast, said he expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the de facto central bank, to maintain its policy of allowing the gradual and modest appreciation of the Singapore dollar.

MAS is to issue its semi-annual monetary policy statement in April.

'There is no basis to loosen the policy given the high inflation. There is also no basis to tighten it given the downside risks for the economy,' he said.

Last October the MAS signalled a slight tightening of its policy in the face of rising inflation. Inflation has surged even higher since then. It reached an annual 6.6 per cent in January, the highest since March 1982, lifted by rising food and housing costs, the government said on Monday.

MAS conducts monetary policy through the local currency rather than by setting interest rates.

The Singapore dollar is traded against a basket of currencies of the city-state's major trading partners within an undisclosed trading band known as the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER).

Details of the trading band are not made public to prevent speculation in the Singapore dollar.

 

Business Times - 27 Feb 2008 Spot on with the near-term calls The principle behind technical analyst David Bensimon's accurate forecasts lies in the symmetries in markets, reports GENEVIEVE CUA MAKING forecasts is a tricky business, as many analysts and fund managers will tell you, but it does not faze technical analyst David Bensimon. Some of his calls on the markets have been so precise that on one of his speaking engagements, it spurred an impromptu bidding war among some in the audience for an on-the-spot copy of his award winning tome on markets, Polar Perspectives. One of the bidders paid for his copy with a gold coin. Worth about US$700 then in November, it was about equal to the price of the book. But the coin has since appreciated, as Mr Bensimon notes with amusement. The book last year won a gold medal as the 'best book in finance/ investment/economics' at New York 's annual independent publishers awards. Mr Bensimon's fundamental view is that most of the world - Asia in particular - is in for a 'prosperity-driven inflationary era' over the next few years, notwithstanding the jitters over the credit crisis. His long-term view, for instance, is that the Straits Times Index (STI) will hit 9,000 and the Hang Seng Index 100,000 by 2012; and gold will climb to US$2,600 an ounce by 2014. He has set up a fund to invest according to the themes of his book. One of his first investors is Stephen Riady of the Lippo Group. His forecasts may sound quite incredible, until you learn of his near-term calls on markets which have turned out uncannily right. Last October, for instance, he told an audience in Singapore that the STI would fall 15 per cent from its level of 3,900 then to 3,300 shortly. The index fell from 3,906 to 3,306 within six weeks of his call. In The Business Times in August, Executive Money quoted him as saying that the STI would fall to 2,800; the index was then at 3,300. It fell to a low of 2,866 in January. The principle behind Mr Bensimon's calls lies in the proportionalities and symmetries in markets, which he sees as functions of 'phi', also called the 'golden mean'. This is expressed in the number 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. As he sees it, these symmetries permeate markets, and this is evident in the scale of market rises and even in the pattern of retracements across time. His calls have gained a following among banks, traders, hedge funds and private individuals. The outcome of a forecast, he says, is not cast in stone but is based on probabilities. 'The power comes not from saying that markets will do this or that. It comes from recognising that different alternatives can unfold,' he says. 'The benefit is not to say the market might go up or down, that's not of value to anyone. The value comes from being able to say that if the market chooses this northward path, it will go this far and no more. If it takes the southward path, it will go this far to a target. 'My speciality is to provide clients with a magnitude of duration and time, of price and specific levels and dates . . . March does provide a broad turning point that crosses different markets, not just the STI or equities but across a spectrum.' He believes the STI, currently trading at the 3,077 level, could still face yet another downdraft. It needs to exceed 3,300, he says, to confirm that it is out of the woods. Until then, there is a 'distinct risk' that it could fall another 15 per cent to 2550, which will be a buying opportunity. 'In Singapore if we break the 2,850 level, the next level down is 2,550 which seems a little far and rather cheap. But these motions are driven by panic and over-extension on the downside. But I'd be happy to invest anywhere from 2,800 to 2,600 because at those levels, it's really very cheap.' He said: 'One of the benefits of looking at the very big picture history is that it provides a degree of comfort and confidence that when we are in a corrective mode, instead of being worried and panicking, we can be comfortable that we know what the rhythm is and can recognise the relationships. We know we'll get to the ultimate target of 8,800 or higher several years from now, and there are natural levels to re-enter the market.' His view is that Asian markets - Australia , Shanghai , Singapore and in particular, Hong Kong - will move in synch upwards. 'Asia will benefit from the huge fundamental growth and prosperity sweeping across the region, that is not in any way harmed by the slowdown in the US . Asia now has enough internal demand and intra-Asian trade and infrastructure and consumer spending that it has a life of its own.' He notes that historically, in past US recessions, the stock market has anticipated a recovery and rises well before the recession ends. 'There is no impediment to have markets bottom in March, and have them recover sharply even if a recession technically continues in the next few months.' His views on oil and gold are positive but not equally so. He expects oil to reach US$125 a barrel this year and to move sideways for two years. 'We're still en route to US$125, but the big story is that once we reach US$125, everyone will scream that we're on the way to US$200 and that's not what's going to happen. ' The catch, too, is that consumer prices will not be adjusted downwards during the consolidation period. 'The margins for products will be fabulous and will power the stock market to much higher levels because the reduction of the oil price will translate directly into the bottom line for corporates in the industrial and financial sectors, telecom and blue chips. They'll all be lifted by prosperity.' He is bullish on gold in the long term but expects some consolidation this year before it moves to US$1,030 an ounce in 2009, and eventually US$1,220 in 2010. But the most rapid rise is expected between 2011 and 2014 when he expects the price to hit US$2,600.

 

Business Times - 27 Feb 2008 Bringing investment principles to life By GENEVIEVE CUA TECHNICAL analyst David Bensimon has set up a Singapore domiciled fund to invest according to the principles in his book Polar Perspectives. The Polar Prosperity fund is open only to institutions and accredited investors, at a minimum investment of US$1 million. 'The fundamental theme of my book is that we're in a prosperity-driven inflationary era,' says Mr Bensimon. 'Mine is not a high-frequency trading model. It's an investment model that looks at finding the key turning points and holding the positions for the substantial rises in the coming years'. He is reluctant to speak of target returns for the fund: 'There is no target per se. The purpose is to bring to life the ideas of the book, finding the turning points and allowing the market to rise without high leverage'. The fund will invest in listed futures and options, spot and forward foreign exchange contracts and cash. Management and operation fees annually will be 1.618 and one percent respectively. For those who exit before September 2010, there is a redemption fee of 2.618 percent. Performance fees of 25 percent are also applied on the cumulative returns after three years. Risk and leverage are expected to be moderate. 'The fund will use listed futures and options primarily for the convenience of accessing positions in major stock indices and commodities, and not primarily for the purpose of increased leverage,' says the prospectus. 'One of the reasons I chose not to have high leverage is that I think there is a big percentage to come in the markets, so you don't need leverage,' said Mr Bensimon. 'Why take the risk of doubling or tripling up? The market itself will deliver a beautiful return as it did between 2001 and 2004.'

 

note that i do not need to read YZJ's historical chart to derive the support and resistance points (though it does help to affirm the belief) and you will be surprised that it is true for Singapore market...and it is really true that one does not need to read the chart to derive the support and resistance points...good luck :)

 

to be more precise and explicit for support and resistance points, say i will take YZJ as example.

Strong resistance points at $1.28, $1.43 (waves from $1.16-$1.28/$1.32, $1.32-$1.43)

Strong support points at $1.16, $1 (waves from $1.32 to $1.20/$1.16 in which $1.20 is weak intra-support)

BIG MOVE DOWN - If $1.16 breaks, it is likely to touch $1 (wave from $1.16-$1)

BIG MOVE UP - If $1.43 breaks, it is likely to touch $2 (waves from $1.43-$1.68, $1.68-$2)

Remember only take the "closing price" NOT "intra-day price"....good luck :)

 

Final STI - 3094 on vol of 1522m (yesterday was 3077 with 1641m). Close lower than the open.

Still hasn't penetrated 3100 in the end. Watch out for DJIA tonight. 12800 key resist.

 

 

"how deep is the dip to dig in" is decided by both the support and resistance points (precise values)....simple as that

 

Hehe interesting rhyme Fairygal..

Anyway got to watch out. STI back to opening level. Futures in Europe and Dow Jones are red.

 

How deep is the dip before you classified it as a dip for one to dip in?

 

blue chips still keep recovering (say capitalland from 5 dollars plus low to 6 dollars plus now) for the past few weeks...seems small caps need to play catch up (somehow affected by synear plunge yesteday i think)...but still advise buy on dip and the recovery will come sooner or later as you cannot stop the up trend till mid april....good luck

 

Just trade cautiously. Could be a bear trap, or may be not.

 

Volumes still quite low. Gains may not be significant

 

More than 50% STI stocks reported triple digits profits.  How much will this this impact the ST index later on ??