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the thing now is....we dun really know how will the market react to Fed rate cuts now....for the past ..reactions were great and most welcomed! but now.....the issue of inflation is getting into our head...it may well backfire
Fed cut rate will only help those who got stuck in the housing loan but not those who are cash rich and hv tons of FD in banks. If the rate is lower than the foreign countries, the smart guys would withdraw their FD and transfer to other counter countries which have better rate for return. Can consider Malaysia now it has 3.5 % p/a. He he.
i was wondering even if fed were to cut rates by 0.75, how will it actually affect the market ? maybe for the first day it will jump up, but in the following days will it be seen as an opportunity by many to sell off ? because deep in our heart we know that the rate cut is only some kind of painkillers, in a long term we'll suffer even more(inflation).
any comments ?
as we can see from the charts at the moment...there seems to be already fear for tomorrow Friday...the mentality of the unexpected from the US...now that the Ambac hopes are diminished...the only other "hope" many would see is from the Fed rate cuts...in which...i dun really welcome it as it brings in the inflation
tml is Friday....after an uneasy week...might see not too many buy-ups tml as fear may set in...especially Friday night the US Markets will be releasing some unemployment rate data as well as consumer credit... this will be watched closed upon...
This rounds sti support level is 2910 before rebound. What is the next?
wow... His daughter only 4 years old?
Investor Jim Rogers says Singapore to lose money on US banks
Wed, Mar 05, 2008
Reuters
INVESTMENT guru Jim Rogers believes that US bank stocks could fall
further and predicts that Singapore's state investors will lose money
on their multi-billion dollar investments in Citigroup and Merrill
Lynch.
'I'm shorting investment banks on Wall Street,' the long-time
commodities bull told reporters on Wednesday at a launch event for ABN
AMRO certificates linked to commodities.
'It grieves me to see what Singapore is doing. They are going to
lose money,' he added, referring to investments by Government of
Singapore Investment Corp and Temasek in Citigroup, Switzerland's UBS
and Merrill Lynch.
Mr Rogers, an American who co-founded the Quantum Fund with
billionaire George Soros in the 1970s, now lives in Singapore as he
wants to raise his four-year-old daughter in an environment where she
can learn Mandarin Chinese.
Mr Rogers, who also writes investment books, said Wall Street had
to work off 10 years of excesses and predicted that losses linked to
risky mortgages will eventually spread to credit card bills, student
loans and other debt.
darnz....
we just broke the 3000 support recently only la...it is likely not to plunge below another support level of 2900 so fast...it will still hang on and bounce off tt level...need another one-time jialat news to bring us below 2900 again...it may most probably come as what many has predicted as this isn't the end of terrible times yet...
but at the mean time...2900 should probably still hold for a while
Business Times - 05 Mar 2008
Analysts paint bleak earnings outlook
Earnings per share growth of S'pore listed companies may not even make 6% this year
By TEH HOOI LING
( SINGAPORE ) Faced with a small domestic market and a very open economy, Singapore companies are highly susceptible to any global slowdown and are therefore expected to chalk up one of the slowest corporate earnings growths in Asia in 2008. This is the conclusion drawn from an aggregate of all analysts' forecasts by StarMine Professional.
Overall, companies in Singapore may see earnings per share (EPS) improve by a mere 5.9 per cent in 2008, making it the market with the third worst outlook in Asia . Hong Kong fares even worse, with its companies expected to register a 2.5 per cent decline in EPS this year. Malaysia , too, has a negative 0.9 per cent earnings outlook.
StarMine, which compiles analysts' estimates and provides equity research performance ratings, aggregated analysts' forecasts of listed companies' earnings in the coming 12 months and compared them to the trailing 12 months' estimates.
It gives greater weight to forecasts by analysts which have proved to be the most accurate in the past, and to more recent estimates.
According to this data - called Smart Estimates - Thailand is poised to have the region's highest growth in EPS - 50.9 per cent in the coming 12 months.
Second is China with an expected growth of 33.6 per cent. Listed companies in India , Indonesia and Korea are expected to boost their EPS by about 17 to 18 per cent each.
Some broking firms' reports seem to conform with the big picture view presented by StarMine.
In a recent report, Merrill Lynch said that it had done a bottom-up stress test to assess the earnings risks and valuation contraction for the top 30 stocks in the Hang Seng Index (HSI).
'In aggregate, we see potential 9 per cent downside to 2008E earnings. In this case, we would not see any earnings growth in the HSI this year,' Merrill Lynch said.
The US investment bank, however, added that it believed the market outlook was unlikely to do worse than its assumptions. 'The result shows that airlines, consumers, Chinese banks and insurance companies are most sensitive to either macro slowdown or poor A-share market sentiment. HK banks, utilities, oil and telecoms are the most defensive with respectable dividend yield,' it said.
Citigroup, however, thinks that analysts and investors may still be a little over-optimistic.
'Region-wide, a 41.5 per cent decline in earnings should not come as a surprise given that it has happened before (when the United States fell into recession),' said its regional equity strategist Markus Rosgen. 'A 41.5 per cent decline in 2008 earnings would leave the region on a P/E of 26.2 times, well above most investors' comfort zone.'
And on the basis of price-to-book ratio, assuming that any upcoming recession is no better or worse than the last two, stock prices in Asia excluding Japan as a region could fall by 47 per cent from current levels, he warned.
Indeed, in the last 30 days or so, StarMine's data showed that there have been continuous downward revisions of earnings for the region by analysts.
Sri Lanka has had the largest downgrades of earnings, by 5.3 per cent. Corporate Taiwan 's EPS estimates were also cut by 3.5 per cent compared with a month ago, while Japan 's and Singapore 's were trimmed by 2.9 and 2.5 per cent respectively.
The markets whose earnings estimates were upgraded in the last 30 days were Indonesia and India . In aggregate, analysts bumped up their estimates of Indonesian companies by 1.7 per cent, and Indian companies by a marginal 0.4 per cent.
Generally, market prices are pegged to the growth outlook for the various markets. For example, China - with an expected earnings growth of 34 per cent - is trading at 24.7 times forward earnings and six times the book value of the companies' assets.
In contrast, Singapore is trading at just 10.9 times its forward earnings and 2.5 times its book value.
Given that certain markets are valued richly based on the very high earnings expectations, any disappointments will have severe consequences on stock prices.
Meanwhile, there are also markets with high growth expectations but low valuation. Thailand and Korea are trading at just over 11 times their forward earnings, despite their pretty robust earnings growth expectations.
Timothy Wong, head of regional equity research with DBS Vickers Securities, explained that Thailand companies' earnings are coming off from a low base. This accounts for the high EPS growth rates. But the market's overall valuation is low because it is perceived as a higher-risk emerging market.
'On the political front, there remain a number of uncertainties, although things are moving in the right direction. And corporate earnings will come through only if the country progresses on the right course,' he said.
As for Korea , the market has historically traded at a discount to other markets. This is due to the structure of the market where there are a lot of chaebols or conglomerates. Also, there are questions on corporate governance, said Mr Wong.
Calculations by Citigroup's Mr Rosgen also showed investors to have very low expectations of Korea , Taiwan and Thailand , making them the three cheapest markets in Asia . 'Given the risks in the global economy at the moment, we'd rather buy low expectations than high expectations,' he said.
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Well, actually you don't realise your lost until you sell it. But then, you can sell and buy back at a lower price instead. That way you would have realised some profit and bring down you cost per share.
today my heart ache, cut lost for my frc and china sky. hopefully i did the right thing...??
steady lah...
its juz very technical...just like DOW 12200
Looks like support level at 2900. Soft rebound already.
a sea of reds
i agree with both hands up...
yesterday at this point of time when i saw the volume...it was 800+ million ...now currently at this time...it is 649million ONLY~!!!
today's Straits Times "Money Section" says yesterday volume was lowest ever since 11 Feb...i think they will write that article once more tomorrow...just change the date nia...
super super low volume...anybody who wishes to buy up and sell later...might not be able to find sellers
