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monday shud cross 3000...then up to 3XXX........just opinion.
Ya when the crowd thinks it will come down....it will reverse....posiible quite drastic in fact...
opinion is monday...sti, hsi, etc shoot up......mayb rather big gains....just opinion.
Learnt something. Thanks elfinchilde!
for newbies to charting. just simple technicals to see market trend, no need talk of BB movement etc: how to gauge the likely direction of a stock/index movement.
you'd use fibonacci to call the actual support/resistance levels. But otherwise, check for basic formations in your price volume charts. As follows, using the DJIA as an example:
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yea, TA. i'm more of a technical person, though i've learn some FA from shplayer, and the rest here. always good to learn more. :)
technical-wise: check for a double top formation, otherwise known as an M formation. (see today's Straits Times back page, they gave quite a good call there). A break of the M downward on increased vol is a bearish sign. In contrast, a break of a W upward on increased vol is a bullish sign.
hm. STI closing today not good. Just checked the blues: a lot of large buying in the last half hour; more than i expected. But it's still down. doesn't bode well. share buybacks tend to occur as the company tries to send a signal that it believes in its own company, its stock is cheap at those prices. To reassure investors, really. What technically follows is this: index is down, broad market down. Company initiates buy back. stock price goes up for a day or two. Whereupon it usually drops below the company buyback price for a short period. When it starts to turn up, that is when you buy.
Wow! where do you get those numbers? Is it by TA? It would be nice if you can give us a pointer or two. :)
elfinchilde ( Date: 13-Jun-2008 16:54) Posted:
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no problem, cathy. :)
technical update for the regional indices:
HSI closed way below 23,000 at 22,592. dropped 1.87% today. SCI has dropped 3% to 2868. They've both broken key support levels.
SCI by technical definition is close to a bear market (a bear market being when the market gives up its entire gains of the previous year(s)): critical level for SCI = 2,840 (bear market), then 2,612. May see a brief rebound to ~3,050 levels.
HSI: Support of 23,000 and 22,850 broken in one swoop. Next level to watch is 22,660 (a very thin support), the stronger support is 21,100.
The Nikkei is in bear territory already, as 14,000 is its critical level.
DJIA bear territory is 11,500. 12,000 is the critical support level.
Critical stage for a lot of the global indices.
ie, you may expect rebounds at the above levels or thereabouts (remember it's never an exact science): if the rebounds are with strong vol, that's good. if not, it's a sell into rally scenario. What's troubling about the HSI/SCI falls is that they occurred with larger vols than usual. Points to sustained downtrend being a greater probability.
Thanks for your advices.
elfinchilde ( Date: 13-Jun-2008 15:15) Posted:
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well, HSI and SCI have broken their critical supports. So STI will likely close slightly +/- its own support. I'd wager 2,990 to 3,020 close. Would expect to see some after-the-bell movement: if more shortists are covering back, the index will go up; if more people throw, it'd be down. close call either way.
Vol without the buybacks is actually low. more than half of sembcorp's trade today came from a married deal at 3.55, for instance.
Will it break STI 3000 today?
careful on the broad market. vol is up today because there's a lot of married deals across the board: kep corp, semb corp, sgx, etc.
i believe some, if not all, are share buybacks.
which means market may have some downside left.
majority of the community still with EU cup fever, esp now closer to Q final. Now, Germany lost 1 to Croatia. Ha ha.
we hadn't see such volume for quite some time already...although its not considered as a "wow" or 'high'...but its better than the average we had seen for the past few weeks...especially this low volume period if June.. 1.26billion
probably the parents are back frm their holidays and scouting for some good bargains
if Hang Seng Index can close at their intra-day high...and DOW futures rather green...and also accompanied with Euro greenery...hopefully our STI will follow the steps upwards too
curious to see the Euro market in the green
agreed, HSI has a strong influence on STI. Europe is opening in the green, I think HSI and STI will recover further.
whoa...we just touched 3000 mark ...we are being pulled up by the influence of HSI recovering from more than 600 points to current 300+
hehe elfie, just scouting nia, haven't done anything yet.
always good to learn more ; )
Aiyoh, dun have to run lah, just walk out...fall down, jialat. leh.