Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

sigh. tried creating charts to post up but can't.  I'm a very practical person, in that while i do believe in theory, i only believe in it if it can be applied. So rather than just talking about indicators by themselves: apply it specifically---it's the best way to learn and to prove.

So for those interested, try to follow. How to tell the difference between a real rebound and a relief rebound. Using yl as an example, and SJ charts (keejang! free advert! ). Pay attention to: volume, MACD, williams.  

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Note: if you're a very short term player (ie, 5 day trading frame), it should not matter to you if it's a relief rebound or a "real one"---since the only difference between the two is that the real rebound lasts for a longer time.

1) Setup for yanlord: bar chart, MACD, williams at 7 days,  vol. (you'll have to toggle the last chart.)

2) Know the ave daily vol and the ave range of your counter. For yl, the daily trading range is at least 12c: this should be your target if you're an ultra short term.

3) Real rebound: Mar 20 to Apr 11. Px 1.67 to 2.6. Called on MACD. Exact entrance and exit is called on williams 7.

4) Technical rebound: May 23 to May 28th. Px 2.16 to max 2.32. (the target is 2.28, which you can get on the 27th or 28th May--definitely exit on 28th because the close is lower than the open. Red overhang on candlesticks). You know it's a relief rebound because MACD is still on longterm downtrend, but wills is 100% oversold. So don't be greedy; target small: the daily range of yl.) 

5) You will not take the 2nd apparent 'rebound' on Jun 10th (2.09 px) because the vol is low then. ie, false signal on wills. if you had taken it, you'd not ride it but choose to exit at the high of 2.13, which it touched twice but did not breach, on increased volume. (2nd signal that it is a false rally).

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overall, i'd say, pick a few counters, know them well. and trade only them. It helps if you have a feel for your counters. such that almost by instinct, you know their ranges, whether a signal is false or not.

Also, pick counters that are suitable for your time frame. If you can't afford to watch every second, don't play the highly volatile ones. liable to get heart attacks. hehe.

 

hey baseerahmed, thanks for providing the website info for all of us here. :)

novicex, no problem. best time to be learning is all times! hehe.

agree with singaporegal actually: from a TA perspective, with volumes so low, charting is not as accurate as before--ie, higher probability of error. Which is also why i've been out of the market for the past month(s).

Note for newbies to trading: time frame is very important. You need to decide if your trading frame is 5 days, or 2 weeks, or 1 month, or longer. You then key your indicators accordingly. And stick to it. Remember the old proverb, that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Don't get distracted by all the rushing counters, and let go the one in your hand.

Eg, if your time frame was five days or less, you'd have entered friday (what i had said about relief rally close to support levels), looking to exit today or tomorrrow for small gains. BUT, if your time frame is 2 weeks to 3 months, you'd not enter friday, because long term indicators are still down. And technical rule is to enter after the turn up. Not before. So it's very important to keep in mind your time frame, and to use the right indicators/parameters for them.  

cheers. :)

 

few reports are coming out from US this week. think will continue to drag down STI. becareful, maybe is a good time to pick "durian" on thursday or friday........ haa

 

if u bought in dip last week, then u may see some kopi money today or tomorrow. as most counters bouhgt for long term or mid term one lately, AK think, they are not breaking even yet, some may be loh. ie STel, bought 5 for acc n aveg last week but no selling, incubate them further.

ha ha, looking at GAR, Yzg etc ??? no eye see loh.  

 

The rebound in USA market may carry till Monday or Tuesday, however this rebound should be capped below 12500. Once it has completed another fierce selling should be on the way. The index needs to break below 12000 for the Bears to have full control. This may happen late next week or a week after. The crucial data to watch next week is Tuesday's PPI and the week after (24/6) Fed meeting. As for STI, we could expect a rally on Monday and possibly carry until Tuesday. However the rally will be capped at 3100 and that after this rebound it will continue to sell down by the end of the week. So for short term investors, my advise is to stay short once the index reaches 3100. As for medium term investors I would assume you have gotten out most of your long positions. If not, this may be the golden opportunity to sell on rally.

 

today everybody see green...hand itchy buy then stuck how?

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 16-Jun-2008 11:10) Posted: every week seems to be a cautious week already  ozone2002      ( Date: 16-Jun-2008 10:46) Posted: gotta be cautious this week.. options expiration together with Goldman n Merril reporting..

 

every week seems to be a cautious week already 

ozone2002      ( Date: 16-Jun-2008 10:46) Posted: gotta be cautious this week.. options expiration together with Goldman n Merril reporting..

 

gotta be cautious this week.. options expiration together with Goldman n Merril reporting..

 

baseerahmed Veteran	Entertainment   /   Fellowship of the Shares   /   Posted: 12-Jan-2008 11:41      4Go to Message
x 0 x 0	tuatow , try downloading free ebook 'Trading for a Living' by Dr. Alexander Elder from www.esnips.com under search  for this weekend reading. That's an Order ! : )

 

baseerahmed Veteran	Entertainment   /   Fellowship of the Shares   /   Posted: 24-Feb-2008 12:38      4Go to Message
x 0 x 0	Just wanted to share that in my earlier days I embarked on my TA learning , at varying times, from : 1) http://www.chartfilter.com/ 2) http://www.incrediblecharts.com.au/ 3) http://stockcharts.com/index.html It's all free ! Having said that, need to emphasize that it takes a lot of time, a lot of questionings, a lot of chart readings and plenty of hard work to really get a feel for reading the charts ... .. and I am still learning .... its an on-going process ... : ) For beginners and newbies : .. just know that Rome was not built in a day ! Good luck ! ( price of this advice .. priceless ! *wink ! )
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baseerahmed Veteran	Entertainment   /   Fellowship of the Shares   /   Posted: 31-May-2007 09:57      4Go to Message
x 0 x 0	elfinchilde : thank you very much for your encouragement : ) One of  my earlier "sifu" sites that I had been visiting for TA , www.incrediblecharts.com , had this to say : " It may take 3 to 5 years to become a good trader. Becoming an expert could take even longer. No one can teach you to press a few buttons on your computer and make money. There are no magic formulas. What it takes is: a sound working knowledge of the basics; an understanding of the traps and pitfalls that you face in the market every day; and above all else, it requires an understanding of yourself. "

 

hey elfinchilde, thanks for taking time off to explain to me.. can you recommend me some websites for basic trading reading?

to all, can you help me with the following questions? 

 what's the diff bet technical rebound and relief rebound and how long will they last?

how do u read sustain volume and increasing volume?

 

 

yes that why i keeping out from stocks and trading forex now. sggals, when is ur turn to join the wagon? elfinchide is in , looking forward to urs..

 

The Singapore market has been illiquid for many months now. The recent and ongoing surge in oil price will not help the volumes return.

From a TA perspective, low volumes mean less market movement and less accuracy in chart reading. For TA people, I think this is the time to stay out of the market.

FA people will most probably have a different view. Livermore, I believe, has some good FA counters in mind for the long term.

 

Shortist perhaps.

hercules      ( Date: 14-Jun-2008 04:49) Posted: I agree with DOW up 165 and S & P up over 20, STI getting over 3000 is not a problem. I prefer to stick close look on S & P cause it gives a better overall pictures of the entire market. Is this just a technical rebound?  Buy when everyone is afraid. If you see some light in the tunnel, others also see it, then who lose money in the stock exchange?   www.investinsgx.com   lookcc      ( Date: 13-Jun-2008 21:41) Posted: monday shud cross 3000...then up to 3XXX........just opinion.

 

Crap market.... stay out

 

Coming Monday, Sell oni into strength, STI expecting to turn up green slightly. (DOW +165pt)

AK_Francis      ( Date: 14-Jun-2008 01:12) Posted: market is gloomy loh. Stay sideline for a while, cash is queen.

 

I agree with DOW up 165 and S & P up over 20, STI getting over 3000 is not a problem. I prefer to stick close look on S & P cause it gives a better overall pictures of the entire market. Is this just a technical rebound? 

Buy when everyone is afraid. If you see some light in the tunnel, others also see it, then who lose money in the stock exchange?

 

www.investinsgx.com
 

lookcc      ( Date: 13-Jun-2008 21:41) Posted: monday shud cross 3000...then up to 3XXX........just opinion.

 

market is gloomy loh. Stay sideline for a while, cash is queen.

 

support refers to a critical technical level at which large buyers usually come in to shore up the market. When a key support is broken on increasing volume, that's a bearish sign for the mid/long term.

short term technical rebounds tend to occur around the support point, however. most counters are showing short term oversold on a long term downtrend. ie, can expect relief rebounds sometime soon.

how many days it can go up is anyone's guess then. All depends on sentiment, which is reflected in volume. If you look at the longer term trading frame of the STI, it moves in ~3 mth cycles. Mar to May = up.  

If the rebound occurs on sustained volume, it means it has a good chance of going up further, rather than the sell-into-rally scenario.

pick counters well, would be my advice. try to avoid the speculative pennies at this stage; yes, you can make a lot more, but the risk may not be worth it if in the next two weeks, some bad news comes out from china or the US. SCI is really not holding up well.

personal opinion only. caveat emptor applies.

 

sorry.. novice here.. if it goes up, how many days can it sustain? what does support mean?