Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Can u elaborate in more detail - How are those results affect STI in negative or positive way? Thks.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 13:00) Posted: US data out tonight: red denotes important news. And yea, as cyjerry said. Our market follows the DJIA, SCI and HSI. Note that SCI is on dangerous grounds now; given the amount of china plays here, you'd naturally expect STI to be stuck. So generally, i'd advise to skip the first hour of play, unless you're selling into a rally. Try not to buy in the 1st hour if your trading frame is longer than 5 days. ----------- 8:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.99M 1.03M 8:30pm USD PPI m/m 1.0% 0.2% 8:30pm USD Building Permits 0.96M 0.98M 8:30pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4% 8:30pm USD Current Account -173B -173B 9:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.7% 79.7% 9:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%

 

Thanks for the information.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 13:00) Posted: US data out tonight: red denotes important news. And yea, as cyjerry said. Our market follows the DJIA, SCI and HSI. Note that SCI is on dangerous grounds now; given the amount of china plays here, you'd naturally expect STI to be stuck. So generally, i'd advise to skip the first hour of play, unless you're selling into a rally. Try not to buy in the 1st hour if your trading frame is longer than 5 days. ----------- 8:30pm USD Housing Starts 0.99M 1.03M 8:30pm USD PPI m/m 1.0% 0.2% 8:30pm USD Building Permits 0.96M 0.98M 8:30pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4% 8:30pm USD Current Account -173B -173B 9:15pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 79.7% 79.7% 9:15pm USD Industrial Production m/m 0.1% -0.7%

 

Somtimes when you are trading too many stocks, you totally lose focus on your risk profile

 

Some are good at trading and some are not. About a year ago, I told my colleague to be careful as he was trading a lot and putting in mega lots. One year later, he has lost a lot. When he told me the amount, I felt for him because he is my friend.

 

US data out tonight: red denotes important news.

And yea, as cyjerry said. Our market follows the DJIA, SCI and HSI. Note that SCI is on dangerous grounds now; given the amount of china plays here, you'd naturally expect STI to be stuck.

So generally, i'd advise to skip the first hour of play, unless you're selling into a rally. Try not to buy in the 1st hour if your trading frame is longer than 5 days.

-----------

8:30pm	USD		Housing Starts			0.99M	1.03M
8:30pm	USD		PPI m/m			1.0%	0.2%
8:30pm	USD		Building Permits			0.96M	0.98M
8:30pm	USD		Core PPI m/m			0.2%	0.4%
8:30pm	USD		Current Account			-173B	-173B
9:15pm	USD		Capacity Utilization Rate			79.7%	79.7%
9:15pm	USD		Industrial Production m/m			0.1%	-0.7%

 

Ya.. I agree with what iPunter had said.. you might want to take a break and take some time to read up on Trading for a Living by Dr Alexandra Elder which what baseerahmed had recommended.. it is a good book. Although it is written in '90s but the principles are very much the same in today's market. It teaches you discipline and be mentally prepared for the harsh reality of the stock market.

iPunter      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 09:07) Posted: Hi Novicex... :) Since you have lost much, I would suggest you take a break from the stock market and get hold "The Genie Tutorials" to better prepare yourself for the treacherous road ahead (ie. stock market)...   novicex      ( Date: 16-Jun-2008 22:34) Posted: elfinchide, thank you for your very detailed explanation on the rebounds as well as the advice on trading time. it does make things clearer to me. baseerahmed, thanks for sharing the links. will definitely go read up when i'm free. red1721, ak francis, aleoleo, for all the updates on what will be happening ---------------- i've been feeling very stressed lately over the market. due to my sheer ignorance and foolishness, i made several purchases which are bad and now i have to resort to cutting losses, which is a very huge amount to me. guess this will be my 'school fees' for learning the trade.

 

Our market is very small. I do not think we will have chance to go our way.

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 10:16) Posted: we always gotta see how the HSI open and react along with it...in our STI...its just a follow through...and HSI takes its cue from Shanghai... when then can we take the lead on our own.....

 

our land area and market are small, no influencial power loh. though we hv a lot of world class's result that wouldn't help as well. ie CO hub, now some coys even stopped business.

unless, one fine day, with those highly paid foreign experts here, could invent cheap substitude for CO, then its a diff issue leow. day dream only lah.

 

we always gotta see how the HSI open and react along with it...in our STI...its just a follow through...and HSI takes its cue from Shanghai...

when then can we take the lead on our own..... 

 

May l know what is the expectation result from this announcement? How will it effect the stock market?

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 10:10) Posted: there are many announcements coming out every week and here are some for the rest of the week from the US: *PPI, *Crude inventories, *Initial Claims more focus on how the daily oil prices will affect us pikachu      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 09:51) Posted: Volume is so low today.  Is it because there are some announcements coming out tonight?

 

there are many announcements coming out every week and here are some for the rest of the week from the US:

*PPI, *Crude inventories, *Initial Claims

more focus on how the daily oil prices will affect us

pikachu      ( Date: 17-Jun-2008 09:51) Posted: Volume is so low today.  Is it because there are some announcements coming out tonight?

 

think a short rebound might be coming soon. hitting the lower bollinger band...

 

Volume is so low today. 

Is it because there are some announcements coming out tonight? 

 

Cheer up. Money lost can be recovered. Just make sure you do your homework next time before going into any stocks.

novicex      ( Date: 16-Jun-2008 22:34) Posted: elfinchide, thank you for your very detailed explanation on the rebounds as well as the advice on trading time. it does make things clearer to me. baseerahmed, thanks for sharing the links. will definitely go read up when i'm free. red1721, ak francis, aleoleo, for all the updates on what will be happening ---------------- i've been feeling very stressed lately over the market. due to my sheer ignorance and foolishness, i made several purchases which are bad and now i have to resort to cutting losses, which is a very huge amount to me. guess this will be my 'school fees' for learning the trade.

 

Some analysts are warning that oil may go up to US$150 by next week.

The market may be poised for a further retreat

 

Just waiting for the commodity bubble to burst... just wait n see.. prices cannot go up forever..it's gotta come back to equilibrium...

 

A Commodity Bubble?

By CAROLINE BAUM
May 15, 2008

Anyone watching the parabolic rise in commodity prices the last six months has got to be wondering what's going on.

Crude oil seems to set a record every day. The price of rice, which did nothing for two decades, more than doubled in the past year. Wheat prices are up 90%; soybeans 50%. Copper prices are up 26% since the start of the year as housing, a major consumer of the metal, implodes.

Yes, I know. I've read the explanations about soaring demand for raw materials from countries like China and India and increased investor appetite for "real" assets as a hedge against the falling dollar and rising inflation.

The thing is, "real consumers change habits gradually," the president of Marketfield Asset Management and chief investment strategist at Oscar Gruss & Son Inc., Michael Aronstein, said.

Did normally forward-looking markets just realize that China and India are industrializing, with their populations of a billion-plus each eating and living better? Has the global economy's need for crude oil really increased by one-third since the start of the year? Oil prices rose almost $12 last week alone.

If it's not real demand to heat our homes, power our factories, and feed our population, then could it be, might it be, a bubble? And if it is, are the commodity markets looking at the same fate as the Nasdaq Composite Index in 2000-2002 and the housing market at present?

"It looks like an old-fashioned corner to me," Mr. Aronstein said.

With other asset classes, there are metrics that allow us to quantify the degree to which prices have strayed from their fundamental moorings. Stock prices have an historical relationship with underlying earnings. House prices don't stray too far from their "earnings" stream, or rental value.

With commodities, no such quantifiable ratio exits. Instead, analysts point to verticality, or the rate of price increases in a short period of time; to the fact that open interest in futures contracts dwarfs actual supply; or to the sheer volume of trading. Last week, the average daily volume of crude oil contracts on the Nymex was almost eight times daily oil demand.

Some of the standard gauges for measuring speculation in commodity markets have been rendered useless by the changing nature of the participants.

For more than four decades, the independent futures and options markets regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has been detailing futures positions of hedgers (commercials) and speculators (non-commercials) in its Commitment of Traders report. Hedgers are those traders who are engaged commercially in the cash market — farmers, for example — and use the futures markets to hedge their production.

With the popularity of long-only commodity index funds and the prevalence of total-return index swaps, the definition and quantification of speculation has changed, according to the president of Bianco Research in Chicago, Jim Bianco.

Let's say a pension fund, like the California Public Employees Retirement System, wants to increase its exposure to commodities. Calpers, a speculator according to the CFTC, does a total-return swap with Goldman Sachs Group Inc., a hedger.

Goldman promises to pay Calpers the total return on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and hedges the swap by buying futures contracts. Calpers's speculative bet on commodities gets recorded as Goldman's hedging in the COT report. In so doing, investors circumvent the position limits on non-commercials, Mr. Aronstein said, who estimates that passive commodity index exposure in commodities amounts to some $250 billion.

With everyone on board the express train, pension funds can market these bets as "asset diversification." And who will argue otherwise in the middle of a boom?

Last year, the CFTC began publishing a new supplemental report on commodity index traders in 12 selected agricultural commodities. The new category includes the positions of managed and pension funds as well long dealer positions to hedge their swaps with pension funds.

According to Mr. Bianco's analysis, index positions accounted for 41.3% of the total market capitalization of the covered markets as of May 2. These funds "are the largest participants in the markets covered in this report, dwarfing positions held by both non-index hedgers and traditional speculators," Mr. Bianco said.

To be sure, there are external forces creating seismic shifts in commodity markets. The government's ethanol mandates (as a gasoline additive) and tax incentives to ethanol producers are boosting demand for corn, creating ripple effects throughout grain and livestock markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that ethanol producers will account for almost one-third of the 2009 corn harvest.

"We don't want to admit we're using corn and cooking oil to drive our cars," Mr. Aronstein said. "All these idiotic things politicians do have real and devastating consequences. It used to be that they were just wasteful."

Mr. Aronstein ran a long-only commodities fund in the mid-1990s before seeing the light.

"If you want to be in commodities, buy a process, not a product," he said. "Own a gas company. Or a forest products company. Buy an entity that extracts value. And you get a free option: the product might appreciate."

The history of investors buying assets — from tulips to tech stocks — because the price is going up is in agreement on one point: People end up holding a lot of stuff they don't want.

But hey, with lots of vacant homes on the market right now from the last burst bubble, these folks might be able to score some storage space on the cheap.

 

 

elfinchide, thank you for your very detailed explanation on the rebounds as well as the advice on trading time. it does make things clearer to me.

baseerahmed, thanks for sharing the links. will definitely go read up when i'm free.

red1721, ak francis, aleoleo, for all the updates on what will be happening

----------------

i've been feeling very stressed lately over the market. due to my sheer ignorance and foolishness, i made several purchases which are bad and now i have to resort to cutting losses, which is a very huge amount to me. guess this will be my 'school fees' for learning the trade.

 

 

Really?  I thought it was so exciting, esp in the morning, tugging btw shortists and investors.    

 

Market is really dead today.

 

Thanks Elfinchilde. I've been reading your postings and enjoyed it as they are informative.

As traders, we must also remember to learn to cut loss if mistake is made. This is something which i find it hard to do as well. The other problem with me in using TA is that i'm a bit impatient. When indicators show oversold, i would normally jumped in a bit. However, it can remain oversold for sometime!!  I know that we must wait for it to turn towards overbought regions before commiting but somehow quite difficult for me to follow as i'm a bit impatient.  Anyway, i'm small timer only, few lots at one go to play safe.Must admit that investment is not easy, worst than my school days. I'm still learning from all sifus here...

Looks like this bear is very stubborn. I'm predicting a small rally the 2nd half but seems like not possible. Will see. I'm sticking to less volalile stocks for longer term, just in case i'm wrong. For shorter term, i used trading method, about 5 days to 10 days, and volatile stocks like cosco, SIA etc.

All the best to all of you all. Hope the bear will be over.