Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Solid 'prediction'. Heh!

Had a lot of fun with noble grp. Hehehehe.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 20-Jun-2008 21:48) Posted: haha. thanks for the compliment but it isn't prophetic, ipunter. if i were, i'd be a gazillionaire already. :) common sense: DJIA on verge of 12,000 breakdown. The upspike of the previous three days was on low vol, while selldowns were on high vols. same for oil: 'retracement' are false downs. Oil is what's affecting US sentiment. Today's quadruple witching day for the US--stock options and futures, index options and futures, all expire. Highly volatile. With no fresh news, momentum continues in its usual path. ie, down. Doesn't take a genius to figure that out. The surprise for most will be STI on monday. hehe.

 

heng alrdy, DJ dipped 200 over pt but STI declined below 30. power!! 

bought SIA and SPC early the morning for incubating. nothing interest leow. go for early lunch and relax.

 

Looks like another sleepy day ahead. With half the day gone, there is still less than 400 million shares traded. Very slow....

 

Agreed. Not for shorting. There is no panic selling. I think support is at about 2950. STI is quite stable nowadays because all factors have been factored in. I think we are going to see some light in the tunnel.

 

 

Contrary to gut feelings for retail traders, today is NOT for shorting. Please be VERY CAREFUL with your trades.

 

looking at some exceptional counters moving in an exceptional way...one of them is Noble Grp

 

GSS again..!! yeah..lei long lei long

 

Unlikely the region will stay positive. There will be a knee jerk reaction by the shortists to sell early in the morning. But afternoon will recover a little.

 

If  Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng can stay up on mon, hopefully S-shares will follow suit...

 

let's see how the region perform then...morning we shall follow the DOW...being down...10am onwards see how HSI will lead us already...the ups and downs recently also as volatile...just hope the volume falls back into place soon

 

I think bank stocks would be the major sector that will pull down the STI index on mon.

Friday June 20, 5:59 pm ET Reuters By Walker Simon
Dow closes below 12,000 on bank jitters, oil prices

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks fell sharply on Friday with the Dow closing below 12,000 for the first time since mid-March as rising oil prices and warnings of more mortgage-related write-downs at banks reignited investor fears of worse to come.....

The session started on a negative note, as investors dumped commercial bank shares after Merrill Lynch said it sees dividend cuts and the need to raise more capital at Bank of America, Regions Financial, SunTrust Banks and Wachovia Corp.....

On Friday, all but one of the 30 Dow components ended in the red. Coca-Cola Co was the sole gainer, rising 0.6 percent to $53.66.

Leading the Dow percentage losers was General Motors, down $1.00 to $13.79. Rival Ford fell 51 cents to $5.81.

Technology shares also fell broadly.

Sandisk Corp, the world's No. 1 supplier of flash memory-based data storage cards used in music players and mobile phones, plummeted 9.7 percent to $21.16 after Citigroup cut its rating on the stock, citing slowing demand.

Among financial stocks, Bank of America lost 3.7 percent to $27.10 and Wachovia fell 1.9 percent to $17.43.

Shares of Merrill Lynch and other investment banks also took a hit as rumors circulated among traders that Merrill may give a profit warning and take additional write-downs on its mortgage holdings. Merrill's stock fell 4.6 percent to $35.95. A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman declined to comment.

Also in the mortgage-related sector, two Wall Street investment banks cut their earnings estimates for top U.S. home finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, citing persistent erosion in U.S. housing and mortgage credit.

COMPONENTS FOR ^DJI

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Volume AA ALCOA INC 37.34 Jun 20 1.78 (4.55%) 17,507,949 AIG AMER INTL GROUP INC 32.10 Jun 20 0.97 (2.93%) 30,876,762 AXP AMER EXPRESS INC 41.18 Jun 20 1.45 (3.40%) 14,219,995 BA BOEING CO 75.83 Jun 20 1.12 (1.46%) 8,868,649 BAC BK OF AMERICA CP 27.10 Jun 20 1.04 (3.70%) 89,929,669 C CITIGROUP INC 19.30 Jun 20 0.87 (4.31%) 151,603,700 CAT CATERPILLAR INC 79.08 Jun 20 0.40 (0.50%) 9,065,511 CVX CHEVRON CORP 96.62 Jun 20 0.24 (0.25%) 15,030,056 DD DU PONT E I DE NEM 46.23 Jun 20 1.17 (2.47%) 11,173,619 DIS WALT DISNEY-DISNEY C 31.94 Jun 20 0.95 (2.89%) 21,345,075 GE GEN ELECTRIC CO 27.38 Jun 20 0.53 (1.90%) 89,703,387 GM GEN MOTORS 13.79 Jun 20 1.00 (6.76%) 38,249,677 HD HOME DEPOT INC 26.25 Jun 20 0.93 (3.42%) 17,187,996 HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD CO 45.64 Jun 20 0.95 (2.04%) 20,129,605 IBM INTL BUSINESS MACH 122.74 Jun 20 2.28 (1.82%) 9,624,839 INTC INTEL CP 22.37 Jun 20 0.48 (2.10%) 71,026,009 JNJ JOHNSON AND JOHNS DC 64.06 Jun 20 0.56 (0.87%) 16,434,932 JPM JP MORGAN CHASE CO 37.86 Jun 20 0.79 (2.04%) 55,377,221 KO COCA COLA CO THE 53.66 Jun 20 0.30 (0.56%) 16,636,519 MCD MCDONALDS CP 57.40 Jun 20 1.19 (2.03%) 10,427,584 MMM 3M COMPANY 73.02 Jun 20 1.10 (1.48%) 7,367,730 MRK MERCK CO INC 35.13 Jun 20 0.47 (1.32%) 20,639,833 MSFT MICROSOFT CP 28.23 Jun 20 0.70 (2.42%) 97,488,232 PFE PFIZER INC 17.33 Jun 20 0.44 (2.48%) 63,389,601 PG PROCTER GAMBLE CO 63.16 Jun 20 1.74 (2.68%) 21,462,039 T AT&T INC. 34.43 Jun 20 0.72 (2.05%) 43,386,834 UTX UNITED TECH 68.80 Jun 20 0.02 (0.03%) 8,822,479 VZ VERIZON COMMUN 35.38 Jun 20 1.12 (3.07%) 22,118,831 WMT WAL MART STORES 56.26 Jun 20 1.43 (2.48%) 27,053,289 XOM EXXON MOBIL CP 84.91 Jun 20 0.88 (1.03%) 36,185,814

 

Elfin,

Thanks. I mean exit on 10 Apr (typo error).

Indeed, Williams for shorter term. I prefer MACD and MA crossover for medium term as i'm working and cannot monitor intraday.

I just learnt the use of volume from you .
Will try that, but not easy.

What is BUSD?

All the best

elfinchilde      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 00:24) Posted: HLJHLJ: confirm your time periods again? how can one buy on 24th march and sell on 9 march? or did you mean May? Your time period is the most important thing: how long are you playing the counter for? For a long trend, ignore williams, ride MACD. For short trend, williams is your most important indicator. And yups smartbear, TA is never 100% accurate. Never believe anyone who tells ya otherwise. The only thing TA does, is to improve the probability that your trade is right. It does not, however, guarantee it. Sudden jump: no idea why. BUSD did show large institutional buying the two days prior tho. Note that in my post, i had said for short rebound on long term downtrend. and to take profit at the daily range of capitaland. As repeated: "ie, signal for a shortterm buy of capitaland came at 5.75 on 18th and 19th june. So you'd take it and exit by friday, with the daily range of capland as your target." ie, i wouldn't have waited for 6.08: no one would have predicted that jump. What i'd have done, is to run it at 6.91, the previous high. Setting of profit target has to be realistic. I'm posting because it's rather tiring seeing small fries jumping around and aimlessly, and getting tricked all the time. Rowlsey, banjoo, jade, gems, chinanewtown, chinahongxing, Xpress, cosco, yzj, etcetc. I read far more threads than i post on. Wouldn't claim to be a saviour or totally accurate or whatever crap though. TA is about probability, not 100% "I am right". And haha. it's one thing to post, it's another if people can learn. What i'm giving is only main readings: the finer points can only be learnt intraday or live interaction. Besides, all advice is pointless if people cannot overcome their own personaliy: trigger happy fingers, greed, hope, fear, etc. At the end of the day, trading is very much personality dependent. What method works for one person, may cause failure for another. You need to be very self aware, and independent enough to take all opinions, but form your own and keep your own strat. i'm just one more voice here for people to add to their assessment: not the be all and end all, nor the gospel truth. i have no pretensions about that. (eg, one stock i consistently fail on: SGX. that's why i don't play it: it doesn't work with my strat and timeframe). i've definitely been wrong many times. which is why i always say, i have no hesitation in cutting. Pride is the one emotion that is useless in the stock market. Cheers. :)

 

Dear Elf

Tks 4 ur explanation. I think there will be some forumers who will be interested to attend if u are

conducting this kind of course. I will definitely be one of them. Pls keep me posted if are thinking of

conducting for the sake of Sharejunction.

 

i just saw on another forum page that made some comparisons on the indexes ...here's just some info...tt i myself din even notice or took the time to even calculate:"The world indexes have dropped at least by 20% but local STI lost only 12%. Shanghai has plunged by 45%, India about 35%, Vietnam suffers 40% above."

 

STI will open -50 tommorow at least. 

Sianz... another bloody start to the week. 

 

Elf,

Kind of a respect to you on the way you explained the whole thinggy on the capitaland ( below post).

Are you financial analyst or did you learn by experience and books?

thanks,

- kira...

 

haha, shplayer, yes. singaporegal is back. let's hope for better days ahead.  

actually, one more thing: sometimes, it's very difficult to pen down all the thoughts and analysis that goes into a trading decision. there's long term, short term, dif indicators, dif stocks, dif reasons, etcetc. Esp for me: because it's more or less become instinct already. And sometimes, esp if it's an intraday/short term scalp, you'd have reversed decision and followed the min by min trend. So it appears as though you're 'inaccurate' and 'changed your mind'--when really, technically, the only thing you're doing is following the trend. or that you didn't put down all the reasons for it. It's what i mean about the finer points of trading. that's very difficult to show on a forum.  

believe eldarchen will know what i mean. traded a couple of times 'live' with him before on short scalps. :P it really does change by the minute.  

 

 

smartbear, yups, no offence taken. and yes, i get what you mean by people who appear as gurus then disappear.   and yuppers, ain't like i'm right all the time. i just try for consistency. There are stocks that i just can't call on, so those are the ones i avoid. excuses are easy, but they don't help one become better. it's about facing up to the music in the end. i try to live up to my mistakes. whatever helps me become a better trader, i'll take it.  

and haha, yes eldarchen, thanks for the clarification on my gender.

virgoan, i'm mainly self taught. there are courses about, i believe; never attended one before though. and no, i don't conduct courses. have been wondering if it'd be useful for people though. not so much my way = best way, but by showing the different methods of trading, and based on personality, to aid people in picking a method best suited for themselves. Customisation, essentially. eg, some are good as day traders but would probably die if they have to hold for months, while others would die of heart attacks if they had to do day trading. lol. I dunno....would such a course be useful/popular?

and smartbear: capitaland can be called on candlesticks and BUSD for short technical scalp. the candlestick of 19th was better than the 18th, and if you had watched live BUSD data, the support was at 5.75: buyers shored up this counter at this px. why i had advocated <5.5 back on the capitaland thread though, was because that was a 'safer' level for long term holding (based on MACD and previous px vol charts). since this stock is rather volatile when it is trending intraday.

again: need to be very clear on your timeframe and what indicators to use for which specific stock, and which time period: this last dictates what indicators you'll use. You'd not use MACD to entry/exit trade short scalps for capland. wld be inaccurate.  

Eldarchen      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 09:16) Posted: Elf is not him but her SmartBear      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 01:30) Posted: i am correct does not mean that i think elf is wrong =) dun make it sound (at least to me it is) like i was putting elf down. no such intentions... individual opinion without substance is actually as good as bullshit. well, at least elf managed to pen down the facts that lead to his "hypothesis". Notice that many in the forum are fair weather ppl. when the particular stock go up - they post until they like guru, when stock is down and out comes various lame excuses...

 

But mainly because singaporegal is back from holiday.

singaporegal      ( Date: 22-Jun-2008 10:38) Posted: The end of the school holidays would probably mean higher trading volumes this coming week! That's good for TA people.