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Same sentiments. Technically Asian index charts were forming uptrend until today's candlesticks on almost all Asian mkts made the engulfing bear signal. I think sidelines policy works best for now. I.e. follow the smart $$ - if they don't enter, I don't.
One side of the chart analysis hints of accumulation and deliberate depression/consolidation (big long almost doji candlesticks that break previous high and low on the same day); yet on the other hand, it's getting harder to think of stories that spur fantastic bulls to kick in (like oil drops to $130 overnight/improving GDP figures etc).
cashiertan ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 23:57) Posted:
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Kinda miss those days when I could hold stock for more than 3 days to ride uptrends. Nowadays I'm fully out of stock, purely doing HSI warrants for intraday momentum plays. Otherwise just doing the occasional technical shorts/longs on volatile counters.
The days of easy money from stocks are over. I don't intend to run too much risk trading stocks not knowing exactly when a BB lurking around is just going to slam down a stock.
Dow made a new low of 11571, broke the previous low. Possible more downside coming soon for other mkts.
If only I held some HSI puts... damn!
Situation is not very good. Maybe good to sit out for a few weeks.
Are all these signs of worst coming?? Not sure.
However, people said past bear lasts for 1-2 yrs, so maybe next year is a better year.
b4 Russia vs Spain, now EU most market down 150 and DJ -220. no eye see leow if DJ plunges further by closing. AK opine that don't rely on charts and graphs at this volatile moment. be alert on current global issues, be it security, CO output affected by sabotaged or natural disasters, rate cut/up, national financial crisis etc.
the moral of the storry is that upfront to see cash is king if situation don't improve. AK view.
saw through many charts there were actually quite some counters moving sideways or towards resistance wanting to break...however we r living on a day-to-day basis on news...anyway Goldman must had been shorting the market as they r the ones who push up oil forecasts and later downgrade the financials ..
based on my analysis. it seem market wanted to turn up but got ruined by citibank news and the damn opec..
well singapore bb are nothing when the real bbs spk..
Right On....BB churned and dumped....churned the price up to make it look attractive and dump when investors take the bite....
elfinchilde ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 22:33) Posted:
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yups singaporegal. aimless because it's actually just churning amongst the BBs, plus diehard day traders.
o/w, most people are out of market. no sense going for minor gains now and risking capital. the only thing 'guaranteed' (as far as the definition allows) are long term, and intraday.
wait for oil to hit 150. i give it two months max. haha.
oil px now near 138 (up 3+) = inflation up [global] = red seas..........who wants 2 bargain hunt when better bargains r expected down the road.
It seems to me now that the Singapore market is just plain aimless. Most tnvestors are sitting it out regardless of news from the US. This is evident in the lack of trading volumes.
From previous observation, it usually takes about 2 months for retail investors to recover some confidence after a major drop in the STI.
take direction from data from usa 2night....gdp, jobless claim, existing home sales n oil px.
2morow market seems don't look good. Q 10 bits lower for your favourite counters loh.
wah ha. totally. nice watching a genuine BB vs BB fight.
for those who've not been watching the counter: last year, gokongwei bought up to 3.45 (you can check the SGX announcements). everyone was wondering why no action from WCY. then the crashes happened, and he swept them up at 2.6-2.75.
jiang hai shi lao de la, indeed.
Now both are buying. and MS as well. whahahaa.
those intersted in jumping in need to be careful tho. i don't rule out an ascott possibility. (ie, where they majorly tank the counter, then offer a lower px for the GO, which most investors are relieved to accept.)
again, disclaimer and caveat applies to all the above. pls do your own research.
UIC is good stuff...bought @ $1..when GKW & WCY were battling for stakes in the company..
even now they are fighting...happening.. better than watching soap opera..
hehe. not STE, actually. it's still too far above valuations for me. STE and capland are punts.
in a down market, go back to fundamentals. use charts as support.
the following are all suggestions, again, caveat applies to all. Just giving the FA facts. Investors need to make up own minds. based on:
-what price is best to enter?
-why are you entering the counter?
-how long are you prepared to hold
-what is the realistic industrial outlook, and the individual stock outlook?
-what are the charts saying.
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KE. NAV = 1.55. expected NAV = 1.53. Current price (CP) = 1.77. Lowest it hit was 1.65; 1.75 this time around.
GK Goh. NAV = 1.18. expected NAV = 1.11 this time around. CP = 96c. directors have been buying.
CDLH. NAV = 1.58. Lowest px = 1.68. CP = 1.74.
UIC. NAV = 2.55. CP = 3.03. Lowest hit was abt 2.65. Gokongwei+ vehicles own abt 34% in all (probably 35 now). WCY owns 34%. MS is kingmaker with 12%. ie, 79% of UIC is in institutional hands. Bonds/issues is min 2.6-2.7 conversion px.
Stamfordland. NAV approx 50c. CP 64.5. damn thing doesn't go down. *(#(@&#(*.......
ARA. range play. insti support.
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the above should NOT be seen as a buy/sell call. I'm only naming the counters but not the strike prices nor the holding period. That has to be determined by each individual investor. "What price are you willing to pay" and "how long are you willing to hold" being the most important factors that will determine your entry/exit. Some of the above will likely take 2Q or more to turn around. Div yield for them range from 2-5% or more.
fyi only. there, i've named the babies. you guys can go do your own homework and determine if they're worthwhile buys. have spent the past days reading ARs.
btw, ocbc's NAV is above $6, and they've cleared their CDO obligations. muah haha.
Don't ask this qn. I've asked before i think. I can guess one of them, STeng. No banks.
ha.ha..ha (just a joke only)
jasonongsc ( Date: 26-Jun-2008 16:21) Posted:
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it's really pretty amazing to see STI, HSI, Nikkei and SSE.... all sliding from green zone to red zone.... really cannot take the excitement.. need to watch blood pressure...
elf care to share some of the counters u are looking for long term hold ?
ozone, what a poetic way to put it. hehe.
seriously tho, for real investors, it's time to start sitting up. some of the blues are getting close to NAV valuations. about 1.2x price to book ratio or less. graham criteria approaching soon. i'm eyeing some counters for long term holds; but will likely only enter 2.
those in CPO plays be careful; run up should be almost done soon. the foreign funds are rotating amongst themselves. Look at who's releasing results in the next few weeks in the US. that's who's playing the local market.
important disclaimer: all the above is my individual opinion only, based on technicals. no vested interests in any of the above, nor in the BBs.
Left a little bit before drowning.