Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

I don't think so. There will be more selling before rally sets in.

 

A clear signal of stock rally will commence soon!!!

elfinchilde      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 17:05) Posted: wah ha! finally we close below 1 bil in vol. rare event indeed. nah, i would put 1,900 only as a remote possibility. it means almost all of the STI components have to fall to below 2003 levels, which means they'd be trading below NAV. FA practioners would swoop in to buy if that ever was realised. the disappointment if you ask me: that other asian govts will step in to shore up their markets; but our own govt will do nothing. Except buy in foreign, tanking banks. haha.

 

hor sey liao down 40 points... put warrants in the money baby!

 

wah ha! finally we close below 1 bil in vol. rare event indeed.

nah, i would put 1,900 only as a remote possibility. it means almost all of the STI components have to fall to below 2003 levels, which means they'd be trading below NAV. FA practioners would swoop in to buy if that ever was realised.

the disappointment if you ask me: that other asian govts will step in to shore up their markets; but our own govt will do nothing. Except buy in foreign, tanking banks. haha.

 

Cyjerry: wow very good guess on volume... 0.8b

Total

840,899,510

$984,731,942

130

391

932

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 12:06) Posted: the thing is that it seems the market already sianz...don't want to move ..thus buying put warrants/gold or shorting may not be viable too...we just need more activity in the market...its a ghost town now...volume at the mid-day today is extremely low..think our start of July shall commence with ard 0.8billion ..well..tt's just a guess ozone2002      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 11:32) Posted: make money thru put warrants & gold..who says u can't make $$ in a down market.

 

It's not impossible to have 1900 again like what newmoon said but then that happens only once in a bluemoon.

 

yea v hard to read markets now. volume too low

 

I wonder if you hold any share at the moment. Ha. ha.. ha...

newmoon      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 16:11) Posted: If STI breaks 2900 the next target is 1900-barton's asia charts

 

go down some more..there'll b margin call..those who can't top up..will cause markets to fall further..domino effect..

 

If STI breaks 2900 the next target is 1900-barton's asia charts


 

 

hurray! cheers for put warrants!...market down 20+ points..muhahahaha

 

If the Fed had any guts, they'd raise the rates aggressively in a one-two blow, shock down the markets and once and for all clear out all the weak hands and excess bloat in the market place.

short term pain so that recovery is faster.

if you ask me, that's infinitely preferable to a long, slow decline and dead market ala the 2001-2003 times for the STI.

having said all the below tho, i will say one more thing: i don't believe in fundamentals. what i do believe in: psychology. The factors i've named are what affects sentiment. And what BBs will use to control the market. Fear, hope and greed move the market, remember that. Also notable is how BBs themselves will believe their own hype: have you guys noticed that the bearish calls are from analysts belonging to tanking companies, while the calls for recovery are those from surviving/doing well banks?

So by knowing fundamentals, you have an edge in the prediction of market psychology: what the BBs will do/will not do. What herd instinct will do. Technicals then show the rest.

Note that the SSE is different from most global markets, because most of their movement is from retailers. that is why any fall/rise in the SSE will appear dramatic. It's mainly herd instinct of the small fries. that always exacerbates volatility.

 

Elfin,
        Thanks. I've posted somewhere that i was disappointed that FED did not raise rate by 0.25 previously. They should! Inflation is getting out of hand. They should use what Chinese say "Hun Shuei Mo Yi" which means make the water murky to catch the fish. Anyway, I have the same feeling that market should rebound shortly before election. Hopefully, they'll up the interest rate by 0.25 next round. Good for everyone. Cheers.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 15:07) Posted: ya know, bears and bulls are simply technical definitions. focus on the charts themselves. things move in cycles. where there's up there'll be a down. and where there's down, there'll be an up. the question is when. Don't focus so much on macros that you lose the fine details. but don't get so caught up in fine details that you lose the macros. It's a balancing act. Macro economics that affect the STI (for the newbies not yet aware): TA/FA blended: track the global flow of money to have an idea of how markets perform: DJIA is teetering at bear levels; SSE is in freefall. HSI follows in tandem. these are the three markets that affect STI sentiment. Nikkei has less of an effect, as does Sensex. Track the UJ pair because it tells of carry trades---there's been intervention in this pair's actions in the past two weeks (related to the ramp in oil--major BBs are likely, desperately raising funds)--oil and commodity prices, because these are the alternative instruments to which money flows. Keep a weather eye on Gold. Take note that these are at all time highs, and Greater Fool Theory applies.   On the US side: they're caught in a catch-22. To fight inflation, the Fed needs to raise interest rates; some say to at least 6%, to match inflation rates. They currently stand at 2%. But raising fed rates will send the DJIA into a shock down, because credit becomes more difficult to come by. The duty of the Fed is to fight inflation, not prop up stock markets fed on the glut of greed and now suffering from indigestion. So much for Ivy League brains: when greed is in the picture, common sense is lost. ie, to save the US economy from a recession, the Fed needs to strengthen the USD by raising rates. This however will induce a bear in the stock markets.  Timing is crucial. US elections is in Nov. You cannot risk an unhappy domestic populace. Though their hands may be tied by then. ie, expect Aug-Sept Fed meeting either to keep rates constant, or to raise it by only 25-50 basis points. The first will deepen global inflation but prompt a brief stock rally; the second will dip the market further. So if you were the Fed, which would you do? Wall Street on one side, the Government on the other.      ie, it is plausible to expect a sudden crash in commodities within the next few months--oil as weathervane--upon which stocks will rally, then dip in light of the larger picture into a bear hug.  That is macro. Now what do individual stock charts say? Different stories.

 

See Semb Marine - charts were screaming buy (intraday) when STI was saying sell.

 

ya know, bears and bulls are simply technical definitions.

focus on the charts themselves. things move in cycles. where there's up there'll be a down. and where there's down, there'll be an up.

the question is when.

Don't focus so much on macros that you lose the fine details. but don't get so caught up in fine details that you lose the macros. It's a balancing act.

Macro economics that affect the STI (for the newbies not yet aware): TA/FA blended: track the global flow of money to have an idea of how markets perform: DJIA is teetering at bear levels; SSE is in freefall. HSI follows in tandem. these are the three markets that affect STI sentiment. Nikkei has less of an effect, as does Sensex. Track the UJ pair because it tells of carry trades---there's been intervention in this pair's actions in the past two weeks (related to the ramp in oil--major BBs are likely, desperately raising funds)--oil and commodity prices, because these are the alternative instruments to which money flows. Keep a weather eye on Gold. Take note that these are at all time highs, and Greater Fool Theory applies.  

On the US side: they're caught in a catch-22. To fight inflation, the Fed needs to raise interest rates; some say to at least 6%, to match inflation rates. They currently stand at 2%. But raising fed rates will send the DJIA into a shock down, because credit becomes more difficult to come by. The duty of the Fed is to fight inflation, not prop up stock markets fed on the glut of greed and now suffering from indigestion. So much for Ivy League brains: when greed is in the picture, common sense is lost. ie, to save the US economy from a recession, the Fed needs to strengthen the USD by raising rates. This however will induce a bear in the stock markets. 

Timing is crucial. US elections is in Nov. You cannot risk an unhappy domestic populace. Though their hands may be tied by then. ie, expect Aug-Sept Fed meeting either to keep rates constant, or to raise it by only 25-50 basis points. The first will deepen global inflation but prompt a brief stock rally; the second will dip the market further. So if you were the Fed, which would you do? Wall Street on one side, the Government on the other.     

ie, it is plausible to expect a sudden crash in commodities within the next few months--oil as weathervane--upon which stocks will rally, then dip in light of the larger picture into a bear hug. 

That is macro. Now what do individual stock charts say? Different stories.

 

I'd say it was here since Oct 07. Hehe hindsight la.

Anyway.. STI tested 2928. Wait n see 1st. But I'd advise shortists to cover NOW.

 

It is getting from bad to worse now. Not only low volume but mostly in red...

Is the bear officially here is the question???

 

STI likely to test 2927 later. If this breaks.... watch mkt reaction at 2922.

 

sama sama.

and yes, good philosophy. no point risking if the reward's not worth it.

look at it another way: a chance to build up a really good portfolio of high yielders for the years to come. plus, getting to sleep til 1 pm or later.   

and ipunter, with regards to the UJ: it wasn't the rally that was important; it was the chance to enter upon the end of the short up on the long down. always in direction of trend, as you yourself always say. hehe. 10820 back then was a good time to short.

scotty: UJ = USD/JPY pair in forex.  

cathylmg      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 11:02) Posted: I've been sideline for quite sometime already. Can't make quick money so might as well don't risk yourself. Blastoff      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 10:50) Posted: I think you are not the only one....

 

in this kinda market ...its either u lose money or u lose more money if u had gone long.. unless u put ur stop losses in place..

unless u can open a CFD acct n start shortin shares... cos the if ya expecting a bull run.. i don't think it can happen in a day.. falls are drastic.. rises are slow ..

2008 i've been in gold..when it when down <USD$850 and in put warrants.. neva had the inclination to go long...cos i'm too pessimisstic on the US economy 
won't make everyday by huge amts but in the end still make.. rather than see ur bluechips either stagnant or down by a bit chunk (for most pple i shud think is the latter)

cyjjerry85      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 12:06) Posted: the thing is that it seems the market already sianz...don't want to move ..thus buying put warrants/gold or shorting may not be viable too...we just need more activity in the market...its a ghost town now...volume at the mid-day today is extremely low..think our start of July shall commence with ard 0.8billion ..well..tt's just a guess ozone2002      ( Date: 01-Jul-2008 11:32) Posted: make money thru put warrants & gold..who says u can't make $$ in a down market.