Straits Times Index   

STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Yea actually rest of Asia climbed today. Look at Nikkei. V green. K la, now we wait

 

No heavy selling! Good news! Spore bear support should be around 2800 to 2900. I  think those who sold off to raise funds have already done so. The rest are long term investors sitting on it. So maybe can sleep well now and wait for harvesting time. Histories have shown before that storms will go off.

Spore is doing quite well despite the external perturbations. Happy Birthday to Spore. Come Aug, lets celebrate with our F1, IR coming along the way. I'm getting positive now. All the best.

 

lalala....bear is comming lol....

 

kelong?

 

kelong la!

 

o_0 no stampede in STI yet. surprising

 

put warrant play and gold ...smoking hot!

best investments for 2008!

 

if it's protectionist measures, then it's likely to be Obama. So the question is, is Obama likely to win?

anyone wants to bet?

in any case, US protectionist measures are likely to deal with agricultural commodities, with the aim of protecting their domestic industries, not the high tech type that s'pore exports. so we should be fine there. It's Europe, South Korea and Mexico that are likely to raise a stink. hehe.

Americans are bulls in a china shop though. And they are mostly trained in the liberal arts, not hard economics. If you ask me, they lack finesse in foreign policy and diplomatic gameplay. So rather than complicated protectionist measures, they're more likely to do the easiest option they can think of: pressure China to devalue its yuan. 

 

Elfin,
        Just one qn came to my mind. Is there any possibility of the future president (be it Obama or J McCain) implementing protectionism measures when they are in power. The current problems cannot be solved immediately and are being passed to next president, not sure if they'll take drastic measures to solve it. This is another risk factor for the market if they do it.

 

Bear? yeah its on the way but I think the cattle wil lcome first... in fact it is already in visible range...

Yes there will be downs on the market on Monday, but still no war declared yet. Oil price maintained and Gold will be sitting in the inventories.

Definately see large price movements on Monday, but remember in this "farm", only the pigs are slaughtered...

 

.. and near term, I expect the Bear trend to continue - US and Asia, and I look for better buying opportunities this week.  But i'm only nibbling; not buying significantly.

ktlow08      ( Date: 13-Jul-2008 22:53) Posted: It's a difficult time for investors.  It's very foggy how the US will get out of the current financial problems quickly. But at the same time valuation has fallen low, even with new downgrades; and we must be ever so close to the bottom.  So I am torn.  I know this: if you DCA into the markets over next 3 to 9 months, you'll probably get a good basis for the recovery that will come.

 

It's a difficult time for investors.  It's very foggy how the US will get out of the current financial problems quickly. But at the same time valuation has fallen low, even with new downgrades; and we must be ever so close to the bottom.  So I am torn.  I know this: if you DCA into the markets over next 3 to 9 months, you'll probably get a good basis for the recovery that will come. 

 

Many forumers usually recommend a stock, with the caveat "not an inducement to buy". Can i specifically  go the opposite, "i am inducing you to buy". + "i'm vested in it."?  Because i'm thinking of inducing readers to buy a US counter. Of course, i personally believe its good and has got prospects (+ article readings) in this gloom climate lah.    

 

Yes as pointed out - DCA. No more waiting for stock on strong uptrend, cut cross upper bollinger band etc 

elfinchilde      ( Date: 13-Jul-2008 22:04) Posted: GIC works with our CPF money, i think. that's why they can offer 3-4% returns pa for CPF. They're essentially "borrowing" the people's money to invest. Temasek holds our "country reserves". whatever that means. (=_=).... nah, tanglinboy, things move in cycles. we had good years from 04 to now. see it as an opp to accumulate for longterm instead. :)  in any case, it's just a note i'm sounding like, 6 mths in advance. put it this way, would you rather have prior inkling so you can be prepared, or have it suddenly hit you out of the blue? Did any of you know, Buffett had warned about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae as early as 2004? That they were unsustainable.  but i may very well be wrong. let's see if the US and/or our govt can pull any bunnies out of their hats. yups. up to a certain point, there'll be news fatigue, and then, stocks will go up as people buy; it goes up, and more will buy; a snowball effect. which is why DCA is a good tactic for these conditions. always have cash no matter what. short term: tmrw sea of red. but if DJIA is positive (a big 'if'), then tues you can expect a temporary up. just keep eye out on the usual movers: oil (/gold), release of further freddie/fannie news, and more importantly, lehman brothers.

 

GIC works with our CPF money, i think. that's why they can offer 3-4% returns pa for CPF. They're essentially "borrowing" the people's money to invest. Temasek holds our "country reserves". whatever that means. (=_=)....

nah, tanglinboy, things move in cycles. we had good years from 04 to now. see it as an opp to accumulate for longterm instead. :) 

in any case, it's just a note i'm sounding like, 6 mths in advance. put it this way, would you rather have prior inkling so you can be prepared, or have it suddenly hit you out of the blue? Did any of you know, Buffett had warned about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae as early as 2004? That they were unsustainable.

 but i may very well be wrong. let's see if the US and/or our govt can pull any bunnies out of their hats.

yups. up to a certain point, there'll be news fatigue, and then, stocks will go up as people buy; it goes up, and more will buy; a snowball effect. which is why DCA is a good tactic for these conditions. always have cash no matter what.

short term: tmrw sea of red. but if DJIA is positive (a big 'if'), then tues you can expect a temporary up. just keep eye out on the usual movers: oil (/gold), release of further freddie/fannie news, and more importantly, lehman brothers.  

 

Agreed...sound very bad...globally in fact....

STI so far have been holding on very well though...

 

Tommorow will be a sea of red across Asia.  

Elf, you are scaring me.... it sounds very bad for Singapore. 

 

Actually, the implications for the govt to write off the treasury bonds linked to Fann/Freddie has got other ramifications to us men in the street. Where does Temasek/GIC get some of their funds from? I believe part of it is from our CPF? Perhaps that would explain the first $20000 of the OA not being able to be used for investments as they are earmarked for acquisitions and investments by GIC/Temasek. Writing off the treasury bond investments might mean part of our CPF savings being wiped out as well.  

 

Use TA to come up with 4D to bet on?LOL.

Didnt know there is a scientificapproach to playing 4D.

i used to watch old folks playing chinese chess and alot of side bets.

iPunter      ( Date: 13-Jul-2008 19:03) Posted: 4D is one of the hot topics...

 

Actually, i have one question, if any forumer would be able to provide the answer, i should be much obliged:

How much US Treasury bonds does our govt (and linked GIC/Temasek) hold?

Because part of the US Treasury bonds are freddie/fannie packaged securities. So if these two collapse (which frankly, to me is just a matter of time; even if not complete collapse, it's going to be desperate options), and we're holding some of it, our govt will have to write off essentially worthless investments. So if they do fall into conservatorship, a subsequent run on US investments by foreigners will be expected.

so for the common folk here, who are wondering what the hell US subprime mortages have to do with them: you can expect wages to go down, GDP down, inflation up, prices up.

especially since US is one of our top two export markets, and we're heavily US-dependent. (Malaysia being our other main market: and Malaysia is nicely tangled in the Anwar-Najib mess now).

chaos theory applies due to the deep interlinkages of the global markets.

note: above is a worst case macrotrend scenario for the next 6-12 months. I should expect meantime handling of the markets since US election is in Nov. so reality should only sink in around Dec-Jan 09, when the Bush admin hands over to McCain/Obama, and leave them to clear up the mess.