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bsiong
    16-Feb-2012 23:45  
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Gold retreats as worries over Greece hurt euro



 

  * Concerns over Greek bailout hurts euro, stocks

China  set to overtake India as biggest gold consumer

* Cenbank gold purchases hit highest in 40 years

* Coming up: U.S. weekly jobless claims 1330 GMT (Updates prices)

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Thursday, pressured by the euro's slide to three-week lows versus the dollar after European officials postponed a decision on a bailout package for  Greece, which fuelled fears the heavily indebted nation could face a chaotic default.

Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $1,715.59 an ounce at 1232 GMT, while U.S. gold  futures  for February delivery were down $10.70 an ounce at $1,717.40.

It remains up 10 percent in the year to date but is well off the record $1,920.30 it hit last year at a time that bad news from the  euro zonetended to have a positive effect on gold, which some saw as a haven from turmoil in other markets.

" Gold stopped being a safe-haven store of value some time around August or September, when you had a huge spike in prices, followed by a collapse," said Natixis analyst Nic Brown. " Gold price volatility was as high as some of the other financial assets you might have been trying to get away from.

" Given that it is (now) trading like another commodity, the correlation with the dollar is one of the key determinants."

The euro slid 0.7 percent against the U.S. currency after euro zonefinance  ministers on Wednesday failed to reach agreement on a 130 billion euro ($169.9 billion) bailout package for Athens, delaying a decision on the matter until ministers meet on Monday.

Some ministers are unconvinced that all of Greece's political leaders are fully behind the painful and unpopular austerity reforms needed to release the package.

A strong dollar tends to weigh on gold prices by making dollar-priced commodities more expensive for other currency holders and reduces the metal's appeal as an alternative asset.

European stocks also turned lower, while risk aversion as measured by the implied volatility on Europe's top stocks jumped to its highest since mid-January. Safe-haven German bonds rose.

 

GOLD DEMAND RISES AGAIN

Gold demand struck 14-year highs in 2011, driven by record investment, buying in China and central bank purchases, which hit their highest in at least 40 years, according to an industry report from the World Gold Council on Thursday.

Major consumer India's gold imports slumped 44 percent in the last quarter of 2011, however, as record-high local prices depressed buying interest, and shipments are likely to remain at similar levels this year.

China could overtake India this year as the world's top consumer of gold, the report said. " (We are) sticking our neck out a bit and suggesting that 2012 will be the first year that China does exceed India in terms of tonnage demand," WGC managing director for investment, Marcus Grubb, told Reuters.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.8 percent at $33.09 an ounce, while spot platinum was down 1.7 percent at $1,604.49 an ounce and spot palladium was down 0.5 percent at $676.98 an ounce.

Impala Platinum, the world's second-largest platinum miner, expects the white metal to trade at between $1,450 to $1,800 ounce this year, the company's marketing executive Derek Engelbrecht said on Thursday.

A strike at Implats' Rustenburg mine has been a key factor lifting platinum prices 15 percent this year, making it one of the best-performing precious metals. The company said it did not know when the mine would be back to full output.

Thousands of protesting miners burned tyres and torched a police office near the Rustenburg mine on Thursday as the month-long strike turned violent.

" The stoppage has been costing Implats circa 3,500 ounces of lost platinum production per day, according to the company," said HSBC analyst James Steel in a note.

" Though a loss of this amount would likely go unnoticed in the larger gold market, the cumulative impact of lost production on the smaller and more finely balanced platinum market is sufficient to shave supply and help bolster prices, we believe." ($1 = 0.7654 euros)

 

(editing by Jane Baird)

 
 
bsiong
    16-Feb-2012 23:42  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/16/2012

By  Peter LaTonaFebruary 16, 2012


GOLD BUYING IN CHINA, INDIA,

EUROPE CREATES RECORD DEMAND IN 2011   

According to the World’s Gold Council’s annual report, the  demand for Gold  reached an all-time high in 2011. This was largely because of increased buying in China, India and Europe. Germany and Switzerland were the leading buyers in Europe. The report states that the reason for the increased demand in that part of the world is related to the European debt crisis driving investors to safe-haven investments.

Another significant Gold-buying event was also covered in this report. Most investors know that in 2010, central banks became net buyers of Gold for the first time in decades. Before 2010, central banks generally sold more Gold than they bought, thus adding to the Gold supply. In 2010, they began competing for the Gold supply. The 2011 Gold purchases by central banks far exceeded even those of 2010. In 2010, central banks bought 77 metric tons of the yellow metal. In 2011, they bought 440 metric tons, an increase of 471%.

Jobless claims fell  last week to near a four-year low. Economists polled by Reuters forecasted claims to be at 365,000 instead, the number came in at 348,000. Although there still are no job openings for nearly three out of four people who are looking, today’s numbers will still be viewed as a sign of a strengthening labor market.

The  core producer price index  had its largest increase in the last six months. This is a measurement of producer prices outside of food and energy. Although there are some who see this as inflationary, others see inflation as unlikely because of the weak labor market.

At 8 a.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals prices were:

  • Gold - $1,712.10 – Down - $15.00.
  • Silver - $32.88 – Down $0.58.
 
 
bsiong
    16-Feb-2012 10:05  
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Gold marks time as Greek uncertainty drags



 


SINGAPORE, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Gold traded little changed on Thursday as news of delays to a bailout for Greece dampened investors' hopes for a resolution of the eurozone's economic problems.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was flat at $1,727.39 an ounce by 0033 GMT, after rising half a percent on Wednesday.

* U.S. gold edged up $1.50 to $1,729.60.

* Euro zone finance officials are examining ways of delaying parts or even all of a second bailout programme for Greece while still avoiding a disorderly default, several EU sources said on Wednesday.

* Adding to concerns about the euro zone's financial problems, Moody's said it was taking ratings actions on 114 financial institutions in 16 European countries to reflect the impact of the continent's debt crisis and the deteriorating creditworthiness of governments in the region.

* A few Federal Reserve officials in January believed another round of bond buying by the central bank would be needed before long to support the U.S. economy while others withheld judgment to await more data.

* The rising tensions between Iran and the West could potentially support safe-haven interest in gold. MARKET NEWS

* U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday for the third session in four, with market direction largely dictated by the swings in shares of Apple, the largest company in the world.

* The euro on Thursday languished near a one-week low against the dollar hit in the previous session, as euro zone officials considered ways to delay a second bailout package for Greece while still avoiding a chaotic debt.

DATA/EVENTS

1330 U.S. Jobless claims Weekly

1330 U.S. Housing starts Jan

1330 U.S. PPI Jan
 

 
bsiong
    16-Feb-2012 10:02  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/15/2012

By  Craig C. CalvinFebruary 15, 2012


GREECE FIGHTS TO SALVAGE BAILOUT

ANOTHER ROUND OF EASING BY THE FED?   

Continued uncertainty about Greece’s bailout and tension between Israel and Iran caused investors to turn to the safe haven of Gold today. The precious metal ended the day up by over $10. Prices for Silver and Platinum ended the day up, as well, with only Palladium experiencing a modest drop.Speaking about Greece, Global Hunter Securities precious metals analyst Jeff Wright said, “The time is limited to avoid spreading the eurozone debt crisis from Greece to countries with a larger economic impact, such as Portugal, Spain and Italy most of the efforts have been to contain the crisis.” 

Political leaders in Greece are fighting to salvage the 130 billion-euro financial bailout package pending with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. However,  sources in the EU reported today  that eurozone finance officials are analyzing whether delaying some or perhaps even all of the bailout package might be possible without experiencing a disorderly default. There are questions as to whether Greece is really committed to the severe austerity measures recently passed in that country’s parliament. Greek leaders have rejected this criticism of the austerity measures, which are extremely unpopular among Greek citizens. Greece’s finance minister accused critics of “playing with fire” and promised that all outstanding issues on the measures would be addressed.

Minutes released today of a January meeting of the Federal Reserve  show that although the Fed is willing to consider another round of easing here in the U.S. in the form of bond purchases, there is division among its members as to if and when. According to the minutes, some officials who are worried about the country’s continued high unemployment favor bond purchases in the near future, while others are of the opinion that such easing should only take place upon further weakening of the economy. At a news conference last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the central bank does consider easing in the form of buying bonds an option for stimulating the nation’s economy. Two previous rounds of easing efforts by the Fed (commonly referred to as “quantitative easing”) resulted in increased inflation here in the U.S., a drop in the value of the dollar, and a corresponding rise in the value of Gold.

 

At 4:03 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold - $1,728.60 - Up $11.90.
  • Silver - $33.48 – Up $0.09.
 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 23:44  
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Gold Prices Desperately Wait for Direction
Mihir Dange, founder of Arbitrage, says gold prices are just range bound for now in search of a catalyst.
 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 23:00  
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Meanwhile Gold...
February 15, 2012 • 06:44:07 PST

Meanwhile Gold...



While the pathetic lunatics and kleptocrats in Europe debate just who wants Greece to default more, gold has had enough of the endless BS.Read More 
 

 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 22:59  
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PIMCO, Texas Teacher Retirement System, Soros Buy GLD  Paulson Sells
February 15, 2012 • 06:12:11 PST

PIMCO,

Texas Teacher Retirement System, Soros Buy GLD

Paulson Sells

Gold is being supported by the never ending Greek debt saga, increased tensions between Israel & Iran which has seen US crude rise above $101 per barr...Read More

 

 

 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 22:57  
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Gold gains, takes cue from euro, eyes Greece



 


* Euro zone growth shows contraction for Q4, 2011

* Clarity sought as Greek crisis comes to a head

By  Veronica Brown

London, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Gold rose in Europe on Wednesday, influenced by a firmer but volatile euro, with investors seeking clarity on prospects for a second Greek debt bailout and wider  euro zoneeconomic health.

Investors noted that bullion recently has not behaved typically as a safe-haven but has risen and fallen in tune with the euro, stock markets and other so-called risk assets.

The single currency was firmer on the day after earlier hitting a nine-day low against the dollar after euro zone officials said a proposal was being considered to delay all or part of a Greek bailout.

" The correlation between gold in the short term and some of the risk markets is higher than people probably expect," said Pau Morilla-Giner, head of equities, commodities & alternative investments at London and Capital Asset Management.

" Below the surface ... gold continues to trade about 60 to 70 percent of the time as an alternative currency, which clearly has to do with being a better store of value than nominal  currencies  that are being abused by excessive quantitative easing (QE) across the board," he added.

Spot gold was quoted at $1,730.39 per ounce, up 0.7 percent on the day. Benchmark COMEX gold  futures  stood at $1,733.40, up $15.70.

The metal has gained about 10 percent in the year to date.

Data released earlier showed the euro zone economy had shrunk by 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2011, with the sovereign debt crisis crushing a recovery, but a north-south divide was evident asFrance  grew while Italy slumped.

Mitsubishi analyst Matthew Turner noted that a scenario in whichGreece  leaves the euro area would be uncharted territory, and that for gold to make further gains, an improvement in the overall economic backdrop would need specific characteristics.

" It was the case last year that gold didn't do very well on bad news that was deflationary, whereas it does do well on bad economic news that is inflationary," Turner said.

" Gold might struggle a little bit if things do get better, but I'm skeptical that they will get much better. I think perhaps we'll see a slowdown in the economy again in Q2, Q3 and that might start to raise hopes of more QE."

Injecting cash into the economy with quantitative easing is gold-friendly as it supports ultra low interest rates.

Technical analysis suggested spot gold could fall to $1,698 an ounce during the day.

 

Hedge fund manager and long-time gold bull John Paulson cut his gold ETF bullion holdings by about $600 million in the fourth quarter, a second straight reduction that was probably driven by client redemption needs as he remained upbeat on the metal.

However, Paulson's selling in the SPDR Gold Trust was more than offset by buying by other investors, reflecting long-term confidence in gold.

Spot platinum rebounded after hitting a one-week low of $1,615.98 in the previous session, rising 0.7 percent to $1,635.49.

Silver mimicked the firmer tone in gold and other metals, rising 0.9 percent to $33.85 per ounce.

 

(Additional reporting by Rujun Shen in Singapore Editing by Jane Baird) 

 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 22:54  
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Last Updated :  15 February 2012 at 16:05 IST

Soros increases Gold bets by 75% but says price will not hit $2000/oz this year



 

NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Billionaire investor George Soros has raised his bullish bets on the SPDR Gold Trust, as per recent data by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Soros' flagship Soros Fund Management LLC added 37100 shares, taking its total ownership to 85450 shares as of end Dec 2011. This represents a more than 75% jump in the Fund's holdings.

Earlier, in an interview with the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Soros had stated that he believed gold will not reach $2000 in 2012 but that it will also not go below $1000/oz either. He however added that gold was the ultimate safe haven.


Meanwhile, the largest shareholder of the SPDR Gold Trust, Paulson & Co, reduced its share position from 20.3 million to 17.3 million shares. 

 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 22:52  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/15/2012

By  Ryan SchwimmerFebruary 15, 2012


EUROPE GETS VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM CHINA   

Gold and Silver prices rose in overnight trading, and U.S. stock futures are higher after better-than-expected European economic data.    German and French gross domestic product (GDP) numbers beat expectations, though the eurozone’s GDP as a whole contracted by 0.3 percent. Brian Gallagher of Dolmen Stockbrokers said, “Growth is slowing (in the eurozone), but it’s slowing at a slower pace than expected.  Concerns that we risk a severe recession have been decreased by the numbers we saw today.” Precious metals and stock futures jumped even higher after the  release of the Empire State manufacturing index. Surprising economists, the index rose to 19.5 in February, which is the highest level in 20 months.

The eurozone also received a vote of confidence from the Chinese government, as People’s Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan announced that China would be expanding investments in the area. Xiaochuan believes that European leaders will be able to solve the debt riddle. Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson didn’t rule out the possibility of the eurozone’s troubles being resolved, but he does believe that  it will take years to sort out the debt crisis in the region. He said, “There is similarity (with the financial crisis in the U.S.) in certain regards. This has been going on for a long time, and I think it will take years to play out. … The structural issues around the EU are very difficult issues.”

Geopolitical issues continue in the Middle East, as  Syrian government forces attacked three major cities today. The revolution in Syria has pressed on for 11 months, and the U.N. estimates that “several thousand” civilians have been killed. Government forces are continuing their bombardment of residential neighborhoods in Homs, and also in Hama and Damascus.  Iran has cut oil exports to six European states  in retaliation to sanctions imposed by the European Union. The oil price hit a six-month high on the news. Oil and Gold historically have a positive correlation.

At 8 a.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold - $1,732.60 – Up $15.90.
  • Silver - $33.85 – Up $0.46.
 

 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 16:44  
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Last Updated : 14 February 2012 at 20:35 IST
Source :Commodity Online

The largest national holders of gold have retained their reserves, but should they sell?



LONDON (Commodity Online): The vast array of macro insecurities has provided a fertile backdrop for gold, particularly when concerns escalated over the US debt ceiling last year and the Fed pushed out the guidance for the first interest rate hike this year. However, broad risk reduction and the need for liquidity have still been able to pressure prices lower. One underlying positive for the market has been the continued appetite for net buying from the official sector globally amid the sovereign debt issues, said Barclays Capital in a research note.

Barclays noted that the initial euphoria over the Greek parliamentary approval of the new austerity measures has largely worn off as a number of steps remain to ensure that there is no disorderly default. The ongoing sovereign debt issues have raised questions as to whether the central banks would or should sell their gold to ease the debt problems. The European central banks are substantial holders of gold and relative to total reserves hold a large share.

For example, Italy, the world’s third-largest national holder of gold, holds 2,451.8 tonnes, making up 71% of its total reserves. Although the Central Bank Gold Agreement limits sales in any given quota year (ending in September) and the use of gold proceeds in relation to debt, it could technically be revised in extraordinary circumstances, given the current environment is unprecedented, but this may cause far greater reputational damage.

" But we believe, even beyond the technicalities, selling gold reserves is not a “golden ticket”, as it would very much be a short-term fix and, perhaps more importantly, weaken balance sheets by switching out a hard asset," Barclays added.

For example, Italy does hold a substantial amount of gold, but even selling all of this would yield just over $130bn, which represents just 6% of Italy’s debt. Greece owns 111.6 tonnes, making up 83% of its reserves, but at a dollar value of $6bn it only represents 1% of total debt outstanding.

Indeed, on the demand side, the latest IMF statistics reveal a continuation of central bank net buying, with net purchases of just under 40 tonnes in December alone and including Turkey’s new policy of accepting gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks increases net reported inflows to 387 tonnes for the year, Barclays concluded.
 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 10:40  
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bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 10:33  
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India\'s Gold
India\'s Gold
February 14, 2012 • 17:46:10 PST

India's Gold

Last night CBS' 60 Minutes aired a great segment on India's penchant for buying gold. I've written a few thoughts, but first watch the segment: Read More

 

 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 10:30  
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Gold guarded as EU awaits Greek commitment



 


SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Gold hovered in a tight range around $1,720 an ounce on Wednesday as investors hesitated to make big bets because Greece has yet to convince European leaders of its ability to stick to unpopular reforms needed to secure a bailout. FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was little changed at $1,719.59 an ounce by 0048 GMT.

* U.S. gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,721.90.

* Euro zone finance ministers dropped plans on Tuesday for a special face-to-face meeting on Greece's new international bailout, saying political party chiefs in Athens had failed to provide the required commitment to reform.

* Hedge fund manager and long-time gold bull John Paulson cut his gold ETF bullion holdings by about $600 million in the fourth quarter, a second straight reduction that was likely driven by client redemption needs as he remained upbeat on the metal.

* U.S. retail sales in January fell short of expectations, but still picked up after a sluggish December, providing a firm foundation for the economy's recovery. MARKET NEWS

* U.S. stocks erased losses to end little changed on Tuesday after a Greek government source said the conservative party leader was expected to deliver a letter of commitment to the country's international lenders.

* The euro was little changed on Wednesday after Moody's downgraded six European countries and warned it may cut three others' ratings. DATA/EVENTS

0700 Germany GDP flash yy Oct 2011

0900 Italy GDP prelim yy Oct 2011

1000 EZ Eurostat trade nsa, EUR Dec 2011

1000 EZ GDP flash estimate yy Oct 2011

1330 U.S. NY Fed manufacturing Feb

1415 U.S. Industrial output mm Jan

1500 U.S. NAHB housing market indx Feb

 
 
 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 10:28  
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分 析 师 多 挪 拉 : 石 油 与 黄 金 市 场 展 望 最 乐 观

( 2012-02-15) 早 报

何 丽 丽   报 道

    分 析 师 看 好 商 品 未 来 的 长 期 展 望 , 而 目 前 投 资 展 望 最 为 乐 观 的 商 品 为 石 油 与 黄 金 。

    天 利 ( Threadneedle) 资 产 管 理 商 品 执 行 董 事 多 挪 拉 ( David Donora) 日 前 在 本 地 接 受 媒 体 访 问 时 表 示 , 商 品 同 股 票 和 债 券 无 挂 钩 , 因 此 将 起 着 分 散 投 资 的 作 用 。 此 外 , 商 品 价 格 同 通 货 膨 胀 率 有 直 接 关 联 , 加 上 它 在 各 国 展 开 货 币 战 及 政 治 局 势 不 稳 定 之 际 , 起 着 保 值 和 对 冲 风 险 的 作 用 , 因 此 建 议 投 资 者 投 资 商 品 。

    多 挪 拉 估 计 , 随 着 商 品 价 格 继 续 攀 升 以 及 投 资 者 的 商 品 投 资 兴 致 提 高 , 国 际 商 品 总 管 理 资 产 将 在 未 来 五 年 内 达 到 上 万 亿 美 元 的 水 平 。

    他 指 出 , 几 乎 所 有 商 品 的 存 货 目 前 处 在 低 水 平 , 供 应 尤 其 紧 缩 的 是 石 油 , 致 使 石 油 供 应 减 少 的 是 去 年 发 生 的 中 东 和 北 非 政 治 动 荡 。

    另 一 方 面 , 中 国 和 新 兴 市 场 的 经 济 仍 在 增 长 中 , 美 国 的 经 济 数 据 也 持 续 报 佳 音 , 石 油 的 需 求 将 随 着 增 加 , 在 供 应 跟 不 上 需 求 的 情 况 下 , 石 油 价 格 只 有 继 续 上 升 的 空 间 。

    多 挪 拉 估 计 , 布 伦 特 原 油 价 格 今 年 将 达 到 每 桶 110美 元 到 120美 元 的 价 格 。

    在 黄 金 方 面 , 由 于 利 率 持 续 偏 低 , 加 上 美 国 可 能 推 出 另 一 轮 的 量 化 宽 松 政 策 ( QE III) , 以 及 欧 洲 债 务 危 机 随 时 可 能 出 现 负 面 消 息 , 多 挪 拉 看 好 这 个 商 品 的 走 势 , 预 计 其 价 格 今 年 将 测 试 一 安 士 2000美 元 的 水 平 。

    他 指 出 , 黄 金 的 买 家 如 今 不 只 是 投 资 者 , 越 来 越 多 人 也 因 其 他 理 由 如 配 戴 用 途 等 购 买 黄 金 。  

 

 

 
bsiong
    15-Feb-2012 10:25  
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Closing Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/14/2012

By  Craig C. CalvinFebruary 14, 2012


GREEK BAILOUT DECISION DELAYED AGAIN

SYRIA HEADED FOR ALL-OUT WAR?   

Since the  Mid-Day Gold & Silver Market Report, precious metals prices have climbed somewhat. Continued uncertainty over Greece’s debt bailout situation has buoyed the dollar, causing a corresponding drop in the price of Gold. However, one precious metals analyst said, “Significant macroeconomic and geopolitical risk and the appalling fiscal state of most major industrial nations means that  Gold  will almost certainly eke out further gains in all currencies in the coming months.” Prices for all four precious metals ended the day slightly down.

Finance ministers in the eurozone are not ready to make a decision on  Greece’s  bailout and will probably delay a meeting originally scheduled for Wednesday to discuss the matter, European officials said. As the details of Greece’s recent budget are scrutinized to verify it does meet the conditions required for monetary aid, one European official indicated that national finance ministry experts do believe they have the information needed to make a decision if the meeting were held tomorrow. However, they will instead wait until the beginning of next week. Even with a positive decision from the eurozone, Greece’s private creditors would still need to approve a separate debt agreement before any final bailout decision is made.

Residents in  Syria  said they believe that their country is headed for an all-out war. As the siege on the city of Homs intensified today, opposition groups said that the Syrian government initiated attacks in other cities throughout the country that left many dead. One opposition activist said, “They are shelling randomly. Why? I don’t know.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also stated that shelling was increased today. Arwa Damon with CNN said, “Everyone we’ve been talking to ... believes that the country is heading toward, or already is in, a full-blown war, and recovering from that is going to be incredibly challenging.”

At 4 p.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold - $1,721.30 - Down $2.60.
  • Silver - $33.65 - Down $0.12.
 
 
bsiong
    14-Feb-2012 23:06  
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Gold falls as euro rally runs out of steam



 


* All eyes still on  Greece  ahead of euro zone meeting

* Platinum:palladium ratio at highest since December (Updates prices)

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Gold eased on Tuesday as a brief recovery in the euro ran out of steam and Moody's warned that the agency may cut its triple-A credit ratings of  France, Britain and Austria.

Spot gold was at $1,714.41 an ounce at 1310 GMT against $1,722.49 late in New York on Monday. U.S. gold  futures  for February delivery were down $8.7 at $1,716.00.

The euro retreated into negative territory after having hit session highs against the dollar when German economic sentiment data from ZEW suggested Europe's largest economy was holding up despite the debt crisis.

Gold remains more sensitive to moves in the euro/dollar exchange rate in the short term than to rising risk aversion, which in the past has been a positive driver of prices. It remains vulnerable to fresh losses in the single currency, which quickly came off its post-data highs.

" Gold is under some small pressure from a euro retreat, but in low volumes, as we seek to consolidate closer to decent support at $1,710," said VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

" The market is pausing ahead of the euro zone  finance  ministers meeting tomorrow as well as U.S. January (inflation data) on Friday," he added. " The January rally is exhausted, and some small-scale profit-taking has kicked in."

In addition to its warning, Moody's downgraded six other European nations including  Italy, Spain and Portugal, citing the risks of the euro debt crisis.

While the Moody's news rattled the markets, focus remained on Greece, which has acknowledged it still has much to do to persuade the European Union and International Monetary Fund to save it from a chaotic default.

Euro zone finance ministers have asked the Greek government for details of how it will fill a 325 million euro ($429.5 million) gap in its plan for an extra 3.3 billion euros in savings this year ahead of a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday.

Greece's austerity measures are proving painful. As parliament debated the package on Sunday night, riot police fought running battles with protesters outside.

" In the short term, gold looks hostage to swings in investor risk sentiment regarding the euro and the  euro zone  sovereign debt situation, in which the focus is centered largely on Greece," said HSBC in a note.

INDIAN DEMAND SOFTENS

On the physical side of the market, gold demand in major consumer India was soft on Tuesday as traders bet prices would continue to fall, after briefly ticking higher.

" Overnight demand was good as prices have come down ... but now buying is stable," said one Mumbai dealer.

In number two gold market  China, the world's first yuan-denominated gold exchange-traded fund made a weak debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange, but analysts said demand would probably pick up as investors become more familiar with it.

Earlier, an official from the Shanghai Gold Exchange said it planned to launch over-the-counter gold trading and was in talks with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to conduct these trades via the interbank market.

Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.0 percent at $33.35 an ounce. Spot platinum was down 1.1 percent at $1,626.27 an ounce, while spot palladium was down 1.6 percent at $684.00 an ounce.

Platinum prices retreated further from the three-month high they hit late last week on the back of supply outages in major producer South Africa, after Impala Platinum said it had started rehiring employees after sacking 17,200 in a labour dispute.

The platinum:palladium ratio - the number of palladium ounces needed to buy an ounce of platinum - held near its highest since early December on Tuesday at 2.37, as palladium prices also retreated.

" From a fundamental perspective ... not much has changed, and we maintain a preference for palladium over platinum this year," UBS said in a note.

" But ... risk sentiment remains the key driver for prices in the short term, and the pace at which net long positions have increased in the last several weeks puts palladium more at risk, should sentiment turn."

($1 = 0.7566 euros) (With reporting by Amanda Cooper, editing by Jane Baird)

 
 
bsiong
    14-Feb-2012 23:04  
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Morning Gold & Silver Market Report – 2/14/2012

By  Ryan SchwimmerFebruary 14, 2012


EUROPEAN NATIONS NOT SOLD ON GREEK AUSTERITY 

Gold pared some losses this morning after reports on retail sales and import and export prices were released. Retail sales rose,  though not as much as expected, and the government also revised downward the reading for sales in November. Import and export prices both rose, as well, fairly in line with analysts’ expectations, but those prices fell when not considering food and fuels. This supports the Federal Reserve’s view that inflation is largely contained at the moment.

Since the announcement that an austerity and bailout agreement had been reached in the eurozone regarding Greece, the mood has been mostly negative. The initial disappointment was the realization that austerity measures had been agreed to in Greece before, but they were never implemented. Riots in the streets of Athens continue to rage over the planned measures, as the people do not want to give up their lush lifestyles. According to the Financial Times,  European nations, including Germany, may only give conditional approval for a bailout  until they can be convinced that austerity measures will be implemented fully. To add fuel to the fire in the eurozone,  Moody’s downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of six countries, including Spain, Italy, and Portugal. It also downgraded the outlook for Austria, France, and the United Kingdom.

Though recent movement has tracked currency fluctuations, geopolitical tensions remain a key driver for the price of Gold. In Syria,  government forces continue to attack rebels  and civilians in an effort to stop the uprising. The city of Homs has been bombarded by artillery and rocket fire for 11 days, and a humanitarian crisis is brewing. The people are running out of food and fuel, and shops are closing because most residents are not leaving their homes.

At 8 a.m. (CST), the APMEX precious metals spot prices were:

  • Gold - $1,719.00 – Down $4.90.
  • Silver - $33.60 – Down $0.17.
 
 
bsiong
    14-Feb-2012 09:29  
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Last Updated :  13 February 2012 at 21:05 IST

Barclays: Gold fundamentals intact, target $1800 on breakout above $1675



  NEW YORK (Commodity Online):  Given that real interest rates are expected to remain negative for longer while concerns over currency debasement and inflationary pressures have resurfaced, the backdrop remains fertile for gold. However, gold still has hurdles to overcome, such as the further strengthening of the dollar, technical resistance levels and profit-taking.

The macro-environment is positive on the back of a stronger than expected US non farm payroll data, lower unemployment and solid growth in factory orders for December. The Eurozone has started 2012 in a good note, with January PMI coming out positive.

Investor flows into the metal is also seeing steady growth. Gold held across the physically backed ETPs rose by 4.3 tonnes last week while non-commercial positions in Comex gold rose by 6.1k lots during the week ended 7 Feb 2012. the reduction in margins by the CME will also influence prices.

On the demand-supply side, data fromHong Kong showed that china imported around 38.84 tonnes of gold in Dec 2011. Meanwhile, Harmony Gold reported a 2% drop in 2011 production. The miner is the eight largest gold producer in the world.

Technically, Near-term price action signals downside risk toward the $1645/$1670 area as momentum studies unwind from bullish extremes. Ultimately, gold is bullish against the backdrop if the weekly uptrend and recent bullish breakout and prefer to buy dips. A break above $1675 would confirm extension toward our greater target near $1800.

Support: $1700/$1670 Resistance: $1763/$1803 Medium term: Neutral.





Source: Barclays Capital Commodities Research

 

 

 

 
 
bsiong
    14-Feb-2012 09:19  
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Gold stalls as Greek bailout awaits EU approval



 

SINGAPORE, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Gold hesitated to make

moves on Tuesday, as investors focus on whether Greece will be able to convince Europe to grant a much-needed bailout by Wednesday, while contagion concerns remain. FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold inched down $1.40 to $1,721.09 an ounce by 0036 GMT. U.S. gold was little changed at $1,723.50.

* Investors remain jittery over Greece's bailout, as Europe gave Greece until Wednesday to convince sceptical international creditors that it would stick to the punishing terms of a multi-billion-euro rescue package, endorsed by parliament as rioters torched downtown Athens.

* Rating agency Moody's warned on Monday it may cut the triple-A ratings of France, the United Kingdom and Austria, while it downgraded the ratings of Italy, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta.

* Meanwhile, Fitch lowered its ratings on four big Spanish banks while Standard & Poor's cut its rating for the industry as a whole.

* The Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to launch over-the-counter gold trading on the interbank market, and to start exchange-traded gold funds, to tap rising demand in China. MARKET NEWS

* U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with the S& P 500 near seven-month highs, after Greece's parliament approved reforms needed to qualify for a bailout and avoid an unruly default.

* The euro inched lower against the dollar on Tuesday, reversing gains in the previous session, weighed by worries about hurdles in the country's bid to avoid a messy default. DATA/EVENTS

0300 Japan BOJ rate decision Feb 2012

0430 Japan Industrial output rev Dec 2011

1000 EZ Industrial production yy Dec 2011

1000 Germany ZEW economic sentiment Feb 2012

1245 U.S. ICSC chain stores yy Weekly

1330 U.S. Import prices mm Jan

1330 U.S. Retail sales mm Jan

1500 U.S. Business inventories mm Dec

 
 
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