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An Argument In Favor Of Catching The Falling Knife
For some interesting
what now reading,
check out the latest from David Goldman who chalks up the insane selling over the last two days to liquidity-driven hedge fund selling more than anything else.
His conclusion:
Investors appear to selling what they can, not necessarily what they want to. Why should electric utilities like Con Ed and Duke Power track the market down? These are the most boring bond-like equities in the universe.
CNBC right now is warning of reports that major head funds are taking massive losses, quoting the reports I cited earlier that the $1.25 trillion in equity hedge funds was massively bulled up in May. Now the hedge funds are all trying to exit through the same keyhole.
Stocks are stupid cheap by any valuation criteria. I’m not selling. I hope I’m right.
Read his full post here, with some good comments on the collapse in Bank of America shares.
This Level Of Uncertainty Almost Always Leads To Recession
The potentially explosive combination of Eurozone debt contagion, vulnerable banking systems, and European and American political paralysis has pushed stock-market volatility to levels nearly as bad as the days following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. Nobody knows what happens next. This column reviews research on 16 previous shocks and concludes that today’s uncertainty shock will create a short, sharp contraction in late 2011 of about 1% with a rebound coming in spring 2012.
The US and European debt crisis of the last week have generated massive economic uncertainty. One measure of the economic uncertainty – the VIX index of stock-market volatility – has jumped to levels not seen since the crash of 2008.
Stock market volatility is now so high that it’s reached the level that occurred right after the 9/11 terrorist attack (see Figure 1) – a period of incredible political and economy uncertainty. Other measures of uncertainty are also spiking, like news headlines, and the frequency of the word “uncertain” in press reports (Alexopoulos, and Cohen 2008).
Right now nobody knows what is going to happen next.
Figure 1. Daily US implied stock market volatility (VIX index, commonly known as the “financial fear factor”)
The research says: Uncertainly leads to recessions
I have studied 16 previous uncertainty shocks – events like 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the assassination of JFK – and the only certain thing about these is they lead to large short-run recessions (Bloom 2009).
When people are uncertain about the future, they wait and do nothing.
- Firms do not to hire new employees, or invest in new equipment if they are uncertain about future demand.
- Consumers do not buy a new car, a new TV, or refurnish their house if they are uncertain about their next paycheck.
The economy grinds to a halt while everyone waits.
Durables are the hardest-hit sectors
These uncertainty shocks hit hardest the sectors that make durables products – those like cars, TVs, and furniture. These are goods that we can wait to replace. These industries typically see massive falls in demand, often of well over 50% as people put off purchasing expensive new goods for another six months.
Based on my research, I predict another short, sharp contraction in late 2011 of about 1%, with a rebound in spring 2012. This research looks at the average impact of the previous 16 uncertainty shocks to predict the impact of future shocks. Typically these leads to reductions of growth of about 2% immediately after the shock, with a recovery about six months later once uncertainty subsides.
Using the same line of reasoning, I correctly predicted a similar recession before the Credit Crunch and conditions look depressingly similar this time around.
And I should point out this research is not all my own work. It builds on the research of a previous Stanford economics professor –
Ben Bernanke. This professor published his work in a now forgotten paper called “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment” (
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1983). While that paper might be forgotten by most, we can be sure that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is not among the forgetful.
References
Alexopoulos, Michelle and Jon Cohen (2008). “
Uncertainty and the credit crisis”, VoxEU.org, 23 December.
Bernanke, Ben (1983), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment”,
Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(1): 85-106.
Bloom, Nicholas (2008). “
Will the credit crunch lead to recession?” VoxEU.org, 4 June.
Bloom, Nick (2009), “
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks”,
Econometrica, May 623-685.
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Something's Up: Is Obama About To Cook Something Up On The Economy?
The White House just announced that all public events have been cancelled today, including a much-publicized appearance by President Barack Obama at a company in Springfield, VA to highlight new fuel efficiency standards.
Obama has faced criticism over his slow response to the Standard and Poor's downgrade on Friday and yesterday's as well as the stock market plunge.
As the Fed meets today, there is some speculation that Obama is preparing an announcement on the economy — perhaps that he will call Congress back into session from its August recess to pass job-creation legislation.
The White House laughed off such a proposal in yesterday's press briefing, but has been facing mounting criticism from both Democrats and Republicans to take more of a leadership role on the economy.
We'll keep you posted if anything develops.
Can China afford to downgrade the United States?-Nye
-- Joseph S. Nye Jr. is a professor at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School and author most recently of " The Future of Power." The opinions expressed here are his own. --
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Aug 8 (Reuters) - After the rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded America's long-term debt, China said that Washington needed to " cure its addiction to debts" and " live within its means." It must have been a delicious moment in Beijing, accustomed over the years to lectures from Washington about its management of the yuan.
But actions speak louder than words. The real test will be whether China moves away from the dollar in any significant manner. While it makes modest adjustments to its reserve holdings, there are few good alternatives to the dollar.
And while it calls for an international basket of currencies to replace the dollar, there are few takers. Of course, China might move toward opening its currency and credit markets in an effort to make the yuan a reserve currency, but the authoritarian political system is unwilling and unprepared to move to that degree of economic freedom.
Many commentators see the downgrading of American debt as a great shift in the global balance of power between the United States and China. Some wags have warned the American navy not to sail too close to China, because if the Chinese captured our ships, we would no longer have enough money to ransom them.
But such jokes misunderstand the nature of power. Analysts point to China's seemingly unstoppable growth and its holdings of United States dollars. But as I show in my latest book, " The Future of Power," they fail to take into account the role of symmetry in interdependence in creating and limiting economic power.
If I depend on you more than you depend on me, you have power. But if we both depend equally upon each other, there is little power in the relationship.
Some observers claim that China could bring the United States to its knees by threatening to sell its dollars. But in doing so, China would not only reduce the value of its reserves as the price of the dollar fell, but it would also jeopardize U.S. willingness to continue to import cheap Chinese goods, which would mean job loss and instability in China.
If it dumped its dollars, China would bring the United States to its knees, but might also bring itself to its ankles. The situation, analogous to the Cold War's balance of terror, where the price of aggression was the inevitable destruction of both sides, has both sides eager to maintain the balance of interdependence even as they continue to jockey to shape the structure and institutional framework of their market relationship.
In 2010, when the United States angered China by selling arms to Taiwan, some People's Liberation Army generals suggested that China punish the United States by dumping its dollars. The Chinese leadership wisely rejected their advice.
On American power relative to China, much will depend on the often underestimated uncertainties of future political change in China. China's size and high rate of economic growth will almost certainly increase its relative strength vis-a-vis the United States.
This growth will bring it closer to the United States in power resources, but doesn't necessarily mean that it will surpass the United States as the most powerful country. Even if China suffers no major domestic political setback, many current projections are based simply on GDP growth. They ignore U.S. military and soft-power advantages, as well as China's geopolitical disadvantages. As Japan, India and others try to balance Chinese power, they welcome an American presence.
The United States faces serious problems regarding debt, secondary education, and political gridlock, but one should remember that they are only part of the picture. In principle, and over a longer term, there are solutions to American problems. Given the challenges they face, China and the United States have much to gain by working together. As the largest and second largest economies in the world, the two countries have a responsibility to provide such international public goods as financial stability and less carbon intensive growth.
But hubris and nationalism among some Chinese, as well as unnecessary fear of decline among some Americans, make it difficult to assure this future. Extrapolating the wrong long-term projections from short-term cyclical events like the recent financial crisis or the S& P downgrade can lead to costly policy miscalculations.
Copper rebounds from 8-mth low, economy fears linger
(Updates prices)
* Consumer buying support industrial metals after hefty falls
* Investors sell risky assets on growth slowdown fears
* China refined copper production hits record high in July
* Coming Up: Fed one-day meeting on interest rates 1815 GMT
By Harpreet Bhal
LONDON, Aug 9(Reuters) - Copper prices bounced from eight-month lows on Tuesday, with traders pointing to consumer buying after sharp falls earlier, although growing unease about the U.S. economy capped further gains as investors awaited a statement from the Federal Reserve for indications of any further easing in policy.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange steadied at $8,869 official rings, from a close of $8,870 on Monday. The metal used in power and construction rebounded from an earlier low of $8,446.25, its lowest level since early December 2010.
Traders said consumers had stepped into the market on bargain hunting following hefty falls in the metal used in power and construction, but buying was limited ahead of the U.S. markets opening.
Nervousness about a cut to the U.S. debt rating by Standard and Poor's, and a slump in economic growth continued to put pressure on European stocks, and sent safe haven assets such as gold and the Swiss franc soaring.
" Everything depends on the equity markets and the behaviour of the players on the financial markets. If they continue to panic sell to try to get cash then we will probably see sharply lower base metals prices," said Daniel Briesemann, analyst at Commerzbank.
U.S. stock markets futures pointed to a higher open for equities after stocks saw their biggest one day drop since December 2008 during the depths of the global financial crisis. < DJc1> < SPc1> < NDc1> .
" We have seen consumer buying from China and Europe. Some are shocked by the big drop and want to wait a bit until it has settled and the big question is whether the Americans will buy when they come in," a metals trader said.
The U.S. Federal Reserve gathers later in the day under growing pressure to take some type of action to stem the financial market meltdown. A policy statement is expected after European markets close.
Volume traded on copper was at around 26,000 lots, after a hefty 38,000 on Monday and more than 39,000 lots on Friday, the highest level for the year so far.
Copper has shed around 2 percent so far this week, bringing total losses to more than 8 percent for the year-to-date.
" Other participants view weaker prices as a good buying opportunity, with copper reflecting resilient developing world demand, constrained supply and signs that Chinese destocking is coming to an end," Credit Agricole said in a note.
CHINA PRODUCTION
China's refined copper production hit a record 478,000 tonnes in July, breaking the previous record of 477,000 tonnes in June, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.
The country's consumer price inflation quickened to 6.5 percent in July from June's 6.4 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday, topping market forecasts for a reading of 6.3 percent.
" It (the data) could mean we might see lower imports for copper and aluminium but I don't think the market is reacting to fundamental data today," Briesemann said.
" On the other hand especially in the case of aluminium we have seen a large drawdown of inventories in China over the last couple of weeks. The same also applies to copper so I wouldn't be too worried about the high production rates."
Latest data shows aluminium stocks in LME-monitored warehouses fell by 9,950 tonnes, with no inflows and continued drawdowns in East Asia, as well as the United States.
Aluminium rose to $2,421 a tonne in official rings from Monday's close of $2,386. Aluminium has been underpinned by expectations power cuts in China will crimp domestic supply and it may have to buy on the international market.
Tin was untraded in official rings, but was bid at $23,150 from Monday's close of $22,505, as the metal rebounded from lows of September 2010 hit in the previous session. At the start of the year, tin's tight fundamentals suggested it would be a star performer this year, and attracted speculative inflow that is now being forced out.
LME zinc rose to $2,135 from $2,091, bouncing back from nine-month lows hit on Monday. Nickel was untraded in official rings, but was bid at $21,650 from $21,250, rebounding from the previous session's nine-month lows.
Battery material lead was also untraded, but bid at $2,287 from $2,205. Metal Prices at 1226 GMT Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
Australia shares make dramatic recovery CBA up 3.6 pct
* Stocks had fallen 5.5 pct in morning trade to a two-year low
* Chinese data, easing selling pressure helped turnaround
* Major banks finish up between 2.2 pct and 3.6 pct
* Benchmark index rises 269 points from low sentiment still fragile (Adds quotes, details)
By Victoria Thieberger
MELBOURNE, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Australian stocks staged a spectacular late recovery on Tuesday, reversing a 5.5 percent slide to close with a solid gain of 1.2 percent, as margin-call selling in the morning faded and Chinese data gave some comfort to investors.
" Not even in the global financial crisis did we see this extraordinary volatility," said RBS Australia's head of Sydney sales trading, Justin Gallagher, after stocks traded in very wide ranges.
Earlier in the day, the market had suffered its largest intraday fall since late 2008 as sentiment crumbled following a rout on Wall Street.
Traders and analysts said that heavy selling after the open was due to investors facing margin calls as the value of stocks declined, but that effect had faded by late morning.
" It has bounced so aggressively. There has been reasonable buying throughout the day, but now the selling has completely evaporated," said Gallagher.
The banking sector led the turnaround, with Commonwealth Bank finishing up a healthy 3.6 percent at A$47.28. It had fallen 4.8 percent in the morning to hit a two-year low of A$43.41.
National Australia Bank finished up 2.9 percent at A$21.50 after having hit a A$19.64 low. The bank met forecasts for a 27 percent rise in third-quarter cash profit and was on track for a record full-year profit.
" The NAB result was pretty reasonable. It shows the power of the sentiment that was around this morning," Gallagher said.
Traders said Chinese inflation data released during the session had given some hope that consumer price rises there had peaked, with non-food inflation lower than the prior month.
" There was a sense in the market that things were getting out of control, it looked like straight-out panic," said Constellation Capital Management portfolio manager Richard Morris.
" There's been a big drop in confidence in policymakers' ability to steer these economies (in Europe and the United States) back to growth," he said.
The benchmark S& P/ASX 200 index ended up 48.7 points at 4,034.8 after having been down 5.5 percent at 3,765. It had already slumped 11 percent over the past week.
Sentiment remains fragile and even after Tuesday's rebound, the Australian market is still down 19 percent from its recent peak in April. That is just short of the 20 percent usual definition of a bear market, with investors ignoring Australia's relatively resilient economy.
Volume was heavy at more than twice the daily average in the big banking and mining stocks.
New Zealand's benchmark NZX 50 index slid 2.8 percent to close at 3,097.8, after touching 11-month lows.
Top miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto reversed losses, to end up 1.2 percent and 1.6 percent respectively.
Farm chemicals maker Nufarm was hammered 19 percent during the session to a 2002 low, on worries it will have trouble refinancing debt in the current market, before recovering to end down 2.9 percent.
Leighton Holdings finished up 2.5 percent at A$18.68> . It said it planned to sell its HWE contract mining arm to BHP Billiton , its biggest customer, for $727 million.
U.S. productivity falls 0.3 pct in second quarter
(Adds Fed meeting, analyst comment, market reaction)
WASHINGTON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. nonfarm productivity fell in the second quarter as economic activity slackened, while a moderation in the pace of unit labor costs growth suggested inflation pressures will remain contained.
Productivity slipped at a 0.3 percent annual rate, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, after falling at a revised 0.6 percent pace in the first quarter.
Economists had expected productivity to drop at a 0.8 percent rate. Revisions to prior quarters showed productivity growth was slightly stronger in 2010 than earlier reported.
" This suggests businesses have largely exhausted the efficiency enhancing measures that resulted in impressive average annual productivity growth of 3.3 percent over the last two years," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
U.S. financial markets were unmoved by the data as investors awaited a Federal Reserve policy statement around 2:15 p.m. (1815 GMT).
The Fed is holding a one-day regular policy meeting on Tuesday. Most analysts do not expect the U.S. central bank to make any major changes in policy at the meeting. [ID:nN1E77723B]
The slowdown in productivity mirrors a sharp slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, which has raised fears the economy could slide into recession. The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a meager 0.4 percent rise in the January-March period.
Normally, a slowdown in productivity implies that businesses have to add new workers to meet production, but against the backdrop of weak economic growth, it suggests businesses might have to cut costs to protect profits.
" If demand remains weak, there is a danger that businesses may try to boost productivity by cutting jobs," said Dales.
Productivity -- which measures hourly output per worker - grew rapidly as the economy emerged from the 2007-09 recession, peaking at an 8.0 percent growth rate in the second quarter of 2009. The gains were driven by companies' cutting costs, particularly for labor.
The productivity report showed unit labor costs grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the second quarter, which was slower than the 4.8 percent pace in the first quarter. Revisions showed unit labor costs contracted more sharply in 2010 than previously estimated.
Economists had expected unit labor costs to rise 2.3 percent in the second quarter. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
China Wen urges global action to calm mkts-radio
* Wen calls for global coordination to stabilise markets
* Urges nations to take responsible monetary policies, cut deficits
* Tones down rhetoric on China's inflation fight (Adds details, quotes)
BEIJING, Aug 9 (Reuters) - China's Premier Wen Jiabao urged nations to work together to stabilise turbulent financial markets on Tuesday as global stocks swooned on fears the world economy is headed for a downturn.
Speaking after a regular meeting by the Chinese cabinet, Wen alluded to debt problems in the United States and Europe and called on " relevant" countries to implement responsible monetary policy and rein in fiscal deficits.
His remarks marked the first public comment from Beijing on the rout in global markets in the past week following a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and Europe's worsening debt crisis.
In a sign that China may soften its policy stance in the face of mounting uncertainties, Wen toned down his inflation rhetoric by omitting Beijing's usual refrain that fighting inflation would be a priority. Instead, Wen said Beijing's economic policies have shown positive results and need to balance price and growth risks.
" We urged relevant countries to take responsible monetary and fiscal policies to cut fiscal deficits and properly manage the debt crisis, to ensure a stable performance of global markets and maintain investor confidence," he was quoted as saying on state radio.
" The global community should improve the communication and coordination of their macro economic policies to realise sustainable, stable and balanced growth in the world economy."
" Currently, global financial markets are highly turbulent and uncertainties are marring a world economic recovery," he said.
Wen said China's economy was still growing solidly, but noted the need to guard against rising risks from choppy markets and cloudy growth outlooks.
Unlike two other occasions in July when Wen stressed that China's policy priority was still focused on taming inflation, Wen only said on Tuesday that Beijing should " try its best to curb price rises" .
" We should try our best to curb price rises and maintain steady and relatively fast economic growth," he said.
" We should properly handle the balance between managing inflationary pressures, maintaining economic growth and adjusting the economic structure."
Wen's remarks came just hours Chinese data showed inflation hugging a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July as growth in factory output cooled to 14 percent.
" So far, China's economy continues to maintain the good growth momentum and the macro economic policies are showing positive effect."
Fears the global economy may slip into another recession after the United States suffered a debt rating downgrade and as Europe reels from a debt crisis pummelled world stocks for the 10th day running on Tuesday.
Wen said he welcomed the Group of 20 nations' vow on Monday to do all that is needed to keep financial markets stable and the world economy growing. (Reporting by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing Editing by Ed Lane)
Asian Market Holidays to December 2011 
REUTERS DIARY OF ASIAN HOLIDAYS
Details below represent the latest information available and will be supplemented later, particularly with updated entries for Muslim holidays.
Double-click in brackets for Americas holidays diary , European holidays , Middle East and African holidays .
Alternatively click on to retrieve dates by country.
Please note the diaries mentioned above can be accessed only from Thomson Reuters products.
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2011 MARKET HOLIDAYS
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**** More countries will be added as and when available ****
TUESDAY, AUGUST 9
Singapore - National Day
FRIDAY, AUGUST 12
Thailand - H.M. the Queen's Birthday
SUNDAY, AUGUST 14
Pakistan - Independence Day
MONDAY, AUGUST 15
Bangladesh - National Mourning Day
India - Independence Day
South Korea - National Liberation Day
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 17
Indonesia - Independence Day
SUNDAY, AUGUST 21
Philippines - Ninoy Aquino Day
MONDAY, AUGUST 22
Bangladesh - Janmashtami
FRIDAY, AUGUST 26
Bangladesh - Jamatul Wida
SUNDAY, AUGUST 28
Bangladesh - Shab-E-Qadar (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
MONDAY, AUGUST 29
Indonesia - National Leave
Philippines - National Heroes'Day
TUESDAY, AUGUST 30
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Indonesia - Idul Fitri Festival
Kazakhstan - Constitution Day
Malaysia - Hari Raya Puasa(Eid-Ul-Fitri)
Singapore - Hari Raya Puasa
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31
Indonesia - Idul Fitri Festival
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
India - Id-Ul Fitr (Ramzan Id)
Sri Lanka - Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramazan Festival Day)
Malaysia - National Day
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Indonesia - National Leave
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Indonesia - National Leave
Vietnam - National Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
China - Mid-Autumn Festival
South Korea - Chusok, Full Moon Festival
Taiwan - Mid-Autumn Moon Festival
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Hong Kong - The day following Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
South Korea - Chusok, Full Moon Festival
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
Malaysia - Malaysia Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Japan - Respect for the Aged Day
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Japan - Autumnal Equinox Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
Cambodia - Constitutional Day (Observed)
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Cambodia - Pchum Ben Day
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
Cambodia - Pchum Ben Day
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Hong Kong - National Day
MONDAY, OCTOBER 3
China - National Day
South Korea - National Foundation Day
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4
China - National Day
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5
China - National Day
Hong Kong - Chung Yeung Festival
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6
China - National Day
Bangladesh - Durga Puja
India - Dasara
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7
China - National Day
MONDAY, OCTOBER 10
Japan - Health-Sports Day
Taiwan - National Day
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11
Sri Lanka - Vap Full Moon Poya Day
MONDAY, OCTOBER 24
New Zealand - Labour Day
Thailand - Chulalongkorn Day (Observed)
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26
India - Diwali
Malaysia - Deepavali
Singapore - Deepavali
Sri Lanka - Deepavali Festival Day
MONDAY, OCTOBER 31
Cambodia - King's Father Birthday, Norodom Sihanouk
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 1
Philippines - All Saints' Day
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3
Japan - Culture Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4
Russian Federation - Unity Day
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Indonesia - Celebration of Hajj
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Malaysia - Hari Raya Haji (Eid-Ul-Adha) (Observed)
Singapore - Hari Raya Haji (Observed)
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9
Cambodia - Independence Day/ Water Festival
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Cambodia - Water Festival
Sri Lanka - Il Full Moon Poya Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Cambodia - Water Festival
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Japan - Labor and Thanksgiving Day
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27
Indonesia - Moslem New Year
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28
Malaysia - Awal Muharram (Maal Hijrah) (Observed)
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 30
Philippines - Bonifacio Day
MONDAY, DECEMBER 5
Thailand - H.M. the King's Birthday
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6
Bangladesh - Muharram (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 12
Cambodia - International Human Rights Day (Observed)
Thailand - Constitution Day (Observed)
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16
Bangladesh - Victory Day
Kazakhstan - Independence Day
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17
Kazakhstan - Independence Day
MONDAY, DECEMBER 19
Kazakhstan - Public Holiday
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 23
Japan - Emperor's Birthday
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25
Bangladesh - Christmas Day
Indonesia - Christmas Day
Malaysia - Christmas Day
Philippines - Christmas Day
MONDAY, DECEMBER 26
Australia - Christmas Day / Boxing Day
Hong Kong - The first weekday after Christmas Day
Indonesia - National Leave
New Zealand - Boxing Day
Singapore - Christmas Day
Sri Lanka - Special Bank Holiday (Observed)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 27
Australia - Boxing Day / Proclamation Day / Christmas Day
Hong Kong - The second weekday after Christmas Day
New Zealand - Christmas Day Holiday
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30
Philippines - Rizal Day
South Korea - Stock Market (Kosdaq Market, Futures Market, Forex, Kse Bond Market)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31
Philippines - Last Day of the Year
World Market Holidays - to December 2011
REUTERS DIARY OF WORLD HOLIDAYS
This diary contains holiday data up to December 2011, and about a week of past holiday information to enable subscribers who have been away from their offices to check on recent events.
Double-click in brackets for long-term holidays diaries: Americas , Asia , Europe , Middle East/Africa .
Alternatively click on to retrieve dates by country.
Please note the diaries mentioned above can be accessed only from Thomson Reuters products.
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2011 MARKET HOLIDAYS
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TUESDAY, AUGUST 9
Israel - Fast Day
Singapore - National Day
South Africa - National Women's Day
Zimbabwe - Defence Forces Day
FRIDAY, AUGUST 12
Ecuador - Ecuador Independence Day
Thailand - H.M. the Queen's Birthday
SATURDAY, AUGUST 13
Tunisia - Women's Day
SUNDAY, AUGUST 14
Pakistan - Independence Day
MONDAY, AUGUST 15
Austria - Assumption Day
Bangladesh - National Mourning Day
Chile - Virgin Mary's Assumption
Colombia - Assumption Day
Croatia - Feast of the Assumption
Cyprus - Assumption Day
Greece - Assumption Day
Guatemala - Feast of the Assumption
India - Independence Day
Italy - Ferragosto
Ivory Coast - Assumption
Lebanon - Assumption of the Virgin Mary
Lithuania - Assumption Day
Luxembourg - Assumption
Malta - Feast of the Assumption(Observed)
Poland - Assumption Day
Romania - Dormition of the Theotokos
Slovenia - Assumption Day
South Korea - National Liberation Day
Venezuela - Assumption Day
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 17
Indonesia - Independence Day
SUNDAY, AUGUST 21
Philippines - Ninoy Aquino Day
MONDAY, AUGUST 22
Argentina - San Martin Day
Bangladesh - Janmashtami
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 24
Ukraine - Ukrainian Independence Day
THURSDAY, AUGUST 25
Uruguay - Independence Day
FRIDAY, AUGUST 26
Bangladesh - Jamatul Wida
Namibia - Heroes Day
SUNDAY, AUGUST 28
Bangladesh - Shab-E-Qadar (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Macedonia - Dormition of the Virgin
MONDAY, AUGUST 29
Indonesia - National Leave
Philippines - National Heroes'Day
Slovakia - Slovak National Uprising Anniversary
Tunisia - Eid El Fitr (End of Ramadan) (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings) (Nasdaq Dubai)
United Kingdom - Summer Bank Holiday
TUESDAY, AUGUST 30
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Religious Holiday (Sarajevo Stock Exchange)
Bahrain - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Egypt - Eid El Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Ghana - Eid al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Indonesia - idul Fitri Festival
Kazakhstan - Constitution Day
Macedonia - First day Ramazan Bajram
Malawi - Eid-UI-Fitr
Malaysia - Hari Raya Puasa(Eid-Ul-Fitri)
Nigeria - Eid-ul Fitri (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Palestine - Eid Al-Fitr ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Qatar - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Singapore - Hari Raya Puasa
Syria - Eid Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Tanzania - Eid El Fitr (subject to lunar sightings)
Turkey - Ramadan
Uganda - End of Ramadan (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings) (Nasdaq Dubai)
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31
United Arab Emirates - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings) (Nasdaq Dubai)
Bahrain - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Egypt - Eid El Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Indonesia - Idul Fitri Festival
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Nigeria - Eid-ul Fitri (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Oman - Eid Al Fiter
Palestine - Eid Al-Fitr ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
India - Id-Ul Fitr (Ramzan Id)
Sri Lanka - Id-Ul-Fitr (Ramazan Festival Day)
Syria - Eid Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Tanzania - Eid El Fitr (Subject to lunar sightings)
Turkey - Ramadan
Qatar - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Malaysia - National Day
Mauritius - Eid-UI-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Morocco - AĂŻd EL Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
United Arab Emirates - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings) (Nasdaq Dubai)
Bahrain - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Palestine - Eid Al-Fitr ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Morocco - Eid EL Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Qatar - Eid Al Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Indonesia - National Leave
Syria - Eid Al-Fitr (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Turkey - Ramadan
Slovakia - Day of the Constitution of the Slovak Republic
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
Palestine - Eid Al-Fitr ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Indonesia - National Leave
Mauritius - Ganesh Chaturthi
Vietnam - National Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
Bermuda - Labour Day
Canada - Labour Day
United States - Labour Day
TUESDAY, SEP 6
Bulgaria - Union Day
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 7
Brazil - Independence Day
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 8
Macedonia - Independence day
Malta - Feast of Our Lady of Victories
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
China - Mid-Autumn Festival
South Korea - Chusok, Full Moon Festival
Taiwan - Mid-Autumn Moon Festival
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 13
Hong Kong - The day following Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival
South Korea - Chusok, Full Moon Festival
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15
Guatemala - Independence Day
Slovakia - Day of Our Lady of Sorrows
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
Malaysia - Malaysia Day
Mexico - Independence Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19
Chile - Army Day
Japan - Respect for the Aged Day
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 21
Ghana - Founders Day
Malta - Independence Day
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
Bulgaria - Independence Day
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Japan - Autumnal Equinox Day
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24
South Africa - Heritage Day
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
Cambodia - Constitutional Day (Observed)
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 27
Cambodia - Pchum Ben Day
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
Cambodia - Pchum Ben Day
Czech Republic - St. Wenceslav Day
Israel - Jewish New Year Eve
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Israel - Jewish New Year I
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Botswana - Botswana Day
Israel - Jewish New Year II
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1
Hong Kong - National Day
Nigeria - Independence Day (Subject to Confirmation)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 3
China - National Day
South Korea - National Foundation Day
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Conference of the SASE (Sarajevo Stock Exchange)
China - National Day
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5
China - National Day
Hong Kong - Chung Yeung Festival
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 6
China - National Day
Bangladesh - Durga Puja
India - Dasara
Syria - Tishreen Liberation War Day
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 7
China - National Day
Israel - Yom Kippur Eve
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 9
Uganda - Independence Day (National Day)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 10
Argentina - Columbus Day
Canada
World Market Holidays - to December 2011=2
- Thanksgiving Day
Chile - Columbus Day
Japan - Health-Sports Day
Taiwan - National Day
Uruguay - Columbus Day
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 11
Macedonia - People's Uprising against Fascizm
Sri Lanka - Vap Full Moon Poya Day
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12
Brazil - Our Lady of Aparecida Day
Israel - Feast of Tabernacles (Sukkoth) Eve
Venezuela - Columbus Day
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 13
Israel - Feast of Tabernacles (Sukkoth)
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14
Tanzania - Nyerere Day
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 15
Malawi - Mothers' Day
MONDAY, OCTOBER 17
Colombia - Columbus Day
Jamaica - National Heroes Day
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 19
Israel - Rejoicing of the Law (Simchat Tora) Eve
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 20
Israel - Rejoicing of the Law (Simchat Tora)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 24
Macedonia - Macedonian Revolutionary Struggle Day
New Zealand - Labour Day
Thailand - Chulalongkorn Day (Observed)
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 26
Austria - National Holiday
India - Diwali
Malaysia - Deepavali
Mauritius - Divali
Singapore - Deepavali
Sri Lanka - Deepavali Festival Day
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28
Cyprus - Greek National Anniversary
Czech Republic - Independent Czechoslovak State Day
Greece - National Holiday
MONDAY, OCTOBER 31
Cambodia - King's Father Birthday, Norodom Sihanouk
Chile - National Day of Evagelical and Protestant Churches
Hungary - Public Holiday
Lithuania - Bank holiday
Venezuela - All Saints' Day (Observed)
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 1
Austria - All Saint's Day
Chile - All Saints' Day
Croatia - All Saints' Day
Hungary - All Saints' Day
Ivory Coast - All saints day
Lithuania - All Saints' Day
Luxembourg - All Saints' Day
Mauritius - All Saints Day
Philippines - All Saints' Day
Poland - All Saints' Day
Slovakia - All Saints' Day
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 2
Bolivia - All Souls' Day
Brazil - All Souls' Day
Mauritius - Arrival of Indentured Labourers
Mexico - All Souls' Day
Uruguay - All Saints Day
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 3
Japan - Culture Day
Panama - Independence from Colombia Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4
Panama - Flag's Day
Russian Federation - Unity Day
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 5
Tunisia - Eid Al Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice) (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Waqfat Arafah (Nasdaq Dubai)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6
Bahrain - Eid Al Adha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Ghana - Eid-Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Indonesia - Celebration of Hajj
Nigeria - Eidel Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Palestine - Eid Al-Adha ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Qatar - Eid Al-Edha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Syria - Eid Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Tanzania - Eid El Hajj (Subject to lunar sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Eid Al-Adha (Nasdaq Dubai)
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Religious Holiday (Sarajevo Stock Exchange)
Bahrain - Eid Al Adha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Palestine - Eid Al-Adha ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Qatar - Eid Al-Edha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Syria - Eid Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Eid Al-Adha (Nasdaq Dubai)
Belarus - October Revolution Day
Colombia - All Saints' Day
Malaysia - Hari Raya Haji (Eid-Ul-Adha) (Observed)
Morocco - Aid Al Adha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Singapore - Hari Raya Haji (Observed)
Tunisia - New Era Day
Turkey - Feast of Sacrifice
Uganda - Eid-ul-Adha-Feast of the sacrifice (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Bahrain - Eid Al Adha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Bangladesh - Eid-Al-Azha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Palestine - Eid Al-Adha ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Qatar - Eid Al-Edha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Syria - Eid Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Eid Al-Adha (Nasdaq Dubai)
Morocco - Aid Al Adha (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Turkey - Feast of Sacrifice
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9
Palestine - Eid Al-Adha ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Syria - Eid Al-Adha (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Turkey - Feast of Sacrifice
Cambodia - Independence Day/ Water Festival
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10
Cambodia - Water Festival
Palestine - Eid Al-Adha ( subject to Lunar Sightings)
Panama - Cry for Independence (Villa de los Santos)
Sri Lanka - Il Full Moon Poya Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11
Bermuda - Remembrance Day
Cambodia - Water Festival
Poland - Independence Day
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 14
Cayman Islands - Remembrance Day
Colombia - Independence of Cartagena
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 15
Brazil - Proclamation of the Republic Day
Ivory Coast - Fete de la Paix
Palestine - Independence Day
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17
Czech Republic - Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
Slovakia - Struggle for Freedom and Democracy Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 18
Latvia - Proclamation of the Republic of Latvia
Morocco - Day of Independence
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Date when Dayton Peace Agreement was signed (Banja Luka Se)
Mexico - Revolution Anniversary
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Lebanon - Independence Day
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 23
Japan - Labor and Thanksgiving Day
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24
United States - Thanksgiving Day
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25
Bosnia and Herzegovina - State Holiday (Sarajevo Stock Exchange)
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26
Bahrain - Al Hijra New Year (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Palestine - New Hijri Year
Syria - Hijri New Year's Day (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
Tunisia - Hegire (Islamic New Year) (Subject to Lunar Sightings)
United Arab Emirates - Hijri Day (Islamic New Year) (Nasdaq Dubai)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27
Indonesia - Moslem New Year
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28
Argentina - Day of the national sovereignty
Malaysia - Awal Muharram (Maal Hijrah) (Observed)
Panama - Independence from Spain Day
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 30
Philippines - Bonifacio Day
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1
Romania - Romanian National Day
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 2
Ghana - Farmers Day
United Arab Emirates - National Day (Nasdaq Dubai)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 3
United Arab Emirates - National Day (Nasdaq Dubai)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4
Bahrain - Ashoora (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
MONDAY, DECEMBER 5
Bahrain - Ashoora (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Thailand - H.M. the King's Birthday
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6
Bangladesh - Muharram (Subject to Lunar Sighting)
Finland - Independence Day
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8
Argentina - Immaculate
Austria - Immaculate Conception
Chile - Immaculate Conception Day
Colombia - Immaculate Conception
Macedonia - St.Kliment Ohridski
Malta - Feast of the Immaculate Conception
Panama - Mother's Day
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 9
Argentina - Immaculate Conception Day
Tanzania - Independence Day
MONDAY, DECEMBER 12
Cambodia - International Human Rights Day (Observed)
Mexico - Day of the Virgin of Guadalupe
Thailand - Constitution Day (Observed)
Venezuela - Immaculate Conception (Observed)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 13
World Market Holidays - to December 2011=3
Malta - Republic Day
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16
Bahrain - National Day
Bangladesh - Victory Day
Kazakhstan - Independence Day
South Africa - Day of Reconciliation
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 17
Bahrain - National Day
Kazakhstan - Independence Day
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 18
Qatar - National Day of Qatar
MONDAY, DECEMBER 19
Kazakhstan - Public Holiday
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22
Zimbabwe - National Unity Day
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 23
Ireland - In lieu of Christmas Eve
Japan - Emperor's Birthday
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25
Bangladesh - Christmas Day
Belarus - Christmas Day
Bolivia - Christmas Day
Ghana - Christmas Day
Indonesia - Christmas Day
Lebanon - Christmas
Malawi - Christmas Day
Malaysia - Christmas Day
Nigeria - Christmas Day (Subject to Confirmation)
Palestine - Christmas
Philippines - Christmas Day
South Africa - Christmas Day
Syria - Christmas Day
Tanzania - Christmas Day
Uganda - Christmas Day
Uruguay - Christmas Day
Zambia - Christmas Day
MONDAY, DECEMBER 26
Australia - Christmas Day / Boxing Day
Austria - St. Stephen's Day
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Religious Holiday (Sarajevo Stock Exchange)
Botswana - Boxing Day
Bermuda - Boxing Day
Bulgaria - Second Christmas Day
Canada - Boxing Day
Cayman Islands - Christmas Day
Croatia - St. Stephen's Day
Cyprus - Boxing Day
Czech Republic - St. Stephen's Day
Denmark - Boxing Day
Estonia - Boxing Day
Finland - Boxing Day
France - Boxing Day
Germany - Christmas Day
Ghana - Boxing day
Greece - Second Day of Christmas
Hong Kong - The first weekday after Christmas Day
Hungary - Christmas
Iceland - Boxing Day
Indonesia - National Leave
Ireland - St. Stephen's Day
Jamaica - Christmas Day (Observed)
Latvia - Boxing Day
Lithuania - Boxing Day
Luxembourg - Boxing Day
Namibia - Family Day
New Zealand - Boxing Day
Nigeria - Boxing Day
Norway - Boxing Day
Poland - Christmas
Romania - The day after Christmas
Singapore - Christmas Day
Slovakia - St. Stephen's Day
South Africa - Day of Goodwill
Spain - Market Holiday
Sri Lanka - Special Bank Holiday (Observed)
Sweden - Boxing Day
Switzerland - St Stephen's Day
Tanzania - Boxing Day
Uganda - Boxing Day
United Kingdom - Christmas
United States - Christmas Day (Observed)
Zambia - Boxing Day
Zimbabwe - Christmas Day (Observed)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 27
Australia - Boxing Day / Proclamation Day / Christmas Day
Botswana - Christmas Day (Observed)
Cayman Islands - Boxing Day
Hong Kong - The second weekday after Christmas Day
Ireland - Public Holiday in lieu of Christmas Day
Jamaica - Boxing Day
New Zealand - Christmas Day Holiday
United Kingdom - Boxing Day
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 30
Austria - Exchange Holiday
Brazil - Last working day of the year
Ireland - In lieu of New Year's Eve
Macedonia - Non trading day
Philippines - Rizal Day
South Korea - Stock Market (Kosdaq Market, Futures Market, Forex, Kse Bond Market)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31
Philippines - Last Day of the Year
ICE sugar falls on recession concerns, coffee firms
* Sizeable northern hemisphere sugar crops expected
* Coffee dealers await information on impact of frost in Brazil's Minas Gerais
* Trade buying seen in cocoa (Adds trade comment, byline, updates prices)
By David Brough
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - ICE sugar futures fell on Tuesday, weighed by fears of a global recession as a rout in stocks continued, while coffee and cocoa futures rose, supported by trade buying.
ICE October raw sugar futures dipped, trading around 15 percent off a contract high of 31.68 cents a lb touched last month.
Dealers eyed large crops in producers including India and Europe.
" Everything seems to be falling in value, so it's difficult for sugar to rally," said James Kirkup, head of sugar brokerage at ABN AMRO Markets (UK) Ltd.
" The markets are trading on fear, not fundamentals."
October raw sugar on ICE was down 0.22 cent or 0.8 percent at 26.76 cents a lb at 1101 GMT.
Thailand, the world's second-biggest sugar exporter, is expected to produce at least 9.2 million tonnes of the sweetener in the current 2011/12 crop, a senior official at the Office of Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) said on Tuesday.
October white sugar on Liffe was up $4.40 or 0.6 percent to $714.90 per tonne in slim volume of 722 lots.
Arabica coffee futures on ICE firmed, supported by commercial buying and tight supplies.
" There is going to be a deficit this season (in arabicas), so downside will be tempered," said Keith Flury, a senior analyst with Rabobank.
Dealers awaited more information on the impact of a frost in Brazil's Minas Gerais, which hit on Friday.
December arabica coffee on ICE rose 1.15 cent or 0.5 percent to $2.3910 per lb.
September robusta coffee on Liffe traded up $50 or 2.4 percent to $2,100 per tonne in light volume of 2,703 lots.
Coffee trading in Vietnam has been frozen due to high prices and thin stocks and the world's second-largest producer after Brazil could see shipment in calendar 2011 drop more than 5 percent, traders and an industry group said on Tuesday.
Cocoa futures on ICE firmed on trade buying, consolidating above a nine-week low touched on Friday, as a large 2010/11 crop kept prices under downward pressure.
" The fact that cocoa is higher, at a time when financial markets are in meltdown, is significant," Flury said.
December cocoa on ICE was up $37 or 1.3 percent at $2,982 a tonne in low turnover of 1,349 lots.
A record 2010/11 global cocoa surplus limited upside in prices, dealers said.
Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached around 1,382,000 tonnes by August 7, some 25 percent ahead of the same period last season, exporters estimated on Monday.
Liffe September cocoa traded up 14 pounds or 0.8 percent at 1,864 pounds a tonne in light turnover of 2,164 lots. (Reporting by David Brough Editing by William Hardy)
Swiss franc at record highs as safety sought on mkt stress
(Adds detail, quote, updates prices)
* Sharp falls in stocks prompt flight to safety
* Swiss franc eyes potential test of parity with euro
* Commodity currencies under pressure
* Markets focus on FOMC announcement in U.S. session
By Neal Armstrong
LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Swiss franc surged to new all-time highs against the euro and the dollar in volatile trade on Tuesday, while the Japanese yen held firm as concerns about a global slowdown and a rout in stock markets drove investors to seek safe-haven currencies.
Investors unwound leveraged trades funded in the dollar and the yen as global stocks, as measured by the MSCI's all-country world index fell 1 percent. It has now shed 20 percent since peaking in May, suggesting it is in a bear market and boding ill for growth-linked currencies like the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars .
Markets have become deeply risk-averse in recent days after Friday's downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by Standard and Poor's and persistent worries over the euro zone spooked investors and fuelled concerns about a global slowdown like the one witnessed after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The euro tumbled through a low of 1.0605 francs hit in Asian trade, dropping to its lowest on record at 1.0475 francs, according to EBS data. It was last at 1.0564 in volatile trade, down 1.3 percent for the day.
Analysts said the franc, which has gained 15.3 percent so far this year, could reach parity with the euro, despite the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) recent move to cut interest rates and warnings over the franc's strength, which have triggered concerns about intervention.
" Parity looks pretty likely for euro/Swiss as long as there is heightened risk aversion," said Tom Levinson, currency strategist at ING. " The SNB has been threatening but they had a terrible time with intervention last time and the market is taking them on," he added.
The SNB may be reluctant to intervene in currency markets after attempts to weaken the franc when the euro fell below 1.50 in the wake of the Lehman crisis left the central bank sitting with heavy losses.
The franc also rose to an all-time high versus the dollar on EBS of 0.7359 francs before easing a touch to 0.7407.
Options markets showed implied volatility in the euro/Swiss -- a measure of the market's expectations of future movements in the currency pair -- at record levels of around 22 percent in the one-month , after surpassing on Monday levels seen at the peak of the Lehman crisis.
Analysts expect more liquid currencies to stay in favour in a risk-off environment and in thin trading conditions.
" Liquidity matters in the current environment so the Swiss franc, the yen, the dollar and to some extent the euro will remain well supported. They are large and liquid and don't have the stretched positioning associated with carry currencies such as the Aussie, kiwi and the Nordics," said Raghav Subbarao, currency strategist at Barclays Capital.
AUSSIE VULNERABLE
Commodity currencies stayed under pressure following heavy losses in the Asian session.
At one point the Australian dollar fell below parity against the U.S. dollar, sliding to $0.9927 , its lowest in about five months, but later recovered to $1.0157.
The Aussie posted its biggest one day percentage fall since mid-May 2010 on Friday and has lost about 10 cents from a 29-year peak of $1.1081 set just two weeks ago.
The dollar drifted to 76.991 , below levels where Japanese authorities intervened heavily on Aug. 4. and not far off the record low of 76.25 yen reached in mid-March. It was last down 0.9 percent at 77.05 yen.
The dollar briefly spiked against the yen in Asia, fuelling speculation that Tokyo authorities had stepped into the market to follow up on last week's massive yen selling intervention, but there were no sightings of official action on Tuesday.
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Tuesday he was watching markets with a sense of urgency after share prices tumbled.
The euro gained some support after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Tuesday the ECB was actively buying government bonds. Traders said the ECB was buying Spanish and Italian bonds for the second day running.
It was last up around 0.7 percent for the day at $1.4270 with Asian central banks cited as buyers at lower levels.
The market's next focus is squarely on Federal Reserve policymakers due to meet on Tuesday.
There has been talk that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will discuss options for more measures to help the economy, especially after the stock market rout. But the consensus view is that it will refrain from any fresh stimulus after having completed a $600 billion bond-buying programme, dubbed QE2, in June.
" Attention will be on the characterisation of the economy," said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. " Any backing away from an expected rebound in growth will resurrect expectations of further easing measures such as expanding the balance sheet once again."
Futures rebound from plunge, Fed statement due
By Ryan Vlastelica
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures surged on Tuesday, indicating a rebound from the previous session's nosedive as investors looked to a Federal Reserve statement for clues on how it may combat a market meltdown linked to fears of a new recession.
In the first session since the United States lost it top-tier credit rating, equities suffered a massive slide on Monday, with the S& P posting its worst loss since December 2008 and nearing bear market territory.
Both the S& P and Nasdaq sank more than 6 percent and the Dow lost more than 5 percent on the heaviest trading volume since the " flash crash" in May 2010. The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 50 percent.
" There's so much volatility out there that both up days and down days are viewed as overdone," said Cort Gwon, chief strategist at HudsonView Capital Management in New York. While futures pointed to strong gains, he added, " it's really fear and panic that continue to lead the market."
Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating late Friday, removing the nation's triple-A designation for the first time in history, sparked the decline and underlined fears a recession was inevitable given increasing signs of slowing growth and more turmoil in the euro zone.
Fed policymakers meet on Tuesday, and a Fed statement, due at 2:15 p.m EDT, will be closely scrutinized. While the central bank isn't expected to debut any massive new program to help asset prices, investors may return to selling if there's no indication that help is on the way.
" Investors are looking for stability. They didn't get it from the government, so the only place they can turn is the Fed," Gwon said. " If there's no indication of help, selling could come back."
S& P 500 futures rose 17.2 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 149 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 34.5 points.
Even though fear remained a dominant emotion in the markets, analysts said stocks could be nearing a bottom. They noted the S& P was now more technically oversold than at any other time in the last ten years. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 16.5 percent. Generally a level below 20 attracts buyers.
Bank of America Corp, the S& P's biggest decliner on Monday, climbed 3.8 percent to $6.76 in premarket trading.
Adding to global concerns, China's annual inflation quickened to a higher-than-expected 6.5 percent in July, putting its central bank in a bind as it tries to keep prices in check without dragging down an economy facing increasing threats from abroad.
Overseas, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares fell 0.3 percent, while Hong Kong shares slumped to their lowest since June 2010.
September crude futures lost 0.4 percent to $81.03. Gold, seen as a safe haven for assets, soared to another record of $1,778 an ounce.
Dow component Walt Disney Co is scheduled to report quarterly results later Tuesday, with investors watching for an outlook on its theme park business in the midst of economic uncertainty.
AOL Inc reported a second-quarter loss but revenue fell less than expected.
Every S& P 500 component ended in negative territory in Monday's selloff, with all ten S& P sectors losing more than 3.5 percent. At its low, the Dow fell under 11,000 for the first time since November.
U.S. productivity falls 0.3 pct in second quarter
WASHINGTON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. nonfarm productivity fell less than expected in the second quarter, government data showed on Tuesday, while a moderation in the pace of unit labor costs growth suggested inflation pressures will remain contained.
Productivity slipped at a 0.3 percent annual rate, the Labor Department said, after falling at a revised 0.6 percent pace in the first quarter.
Economists had expected productivity to drop at a 0.8 percent rate. Revisions to prior quarters showed productivity growth was slightly stronger in 2010 than earlier reported.
The slowdown in productivity mirrors a sharp slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year, which has raised fears the economy could slide into recession. The economy grew at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter after a meager 0.4 percent rise in the January-March period.
Normally, a slowdown in productivity implies that businesses have to add new workers to meet production, but against the backdrop of weak economic growth, it suggests businesses might have to cut costs to protect profits.
Productivity -- which measures hourly output per worker - grew rapidly as the economy emerged from the 2007-09 recession, peaking at an 8.0 percent growth rate in the second quarter of 2009. The gains were driven by companies' cutting costs, particularly for labor.
The productivity report showed unit labor costs grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the second quarter, which was slower than the 4.8 percent pace in the first quarter. Revisions showed unit labor costs contracted more sharply in 2010 than previously estimated.
Economists had expected unit labor costs to rise 2.3 percent in the second quarter. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
European stocks recover from fresh two-year lows
* FTSEurofirst 300 down 0.1 percent
* Euro STOXX 50 falls for 12th straight session
* Volatility indices surge to more than 2-1/2 year highs
By Harro ten Wolde and Blaise Robinson
FRANKFURT/PARIS, Aug 9 (Reuters) - European stocks were flat on Tuesday afternoon in volatile trading that saw big losses earlier, with miners leading the way back following stronger base materials and as U.S. futures turned positive.
Shares had fallen sharply during the morning on fears about another recession in the United States and Europe.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 0.1 percent at 934.94 at 1220 GMT, after an 888.11 low.
" At these levels we should expect the bull to return to the market," a German trader said. " We are looking at stock valuations below or close to book values."
The euro zone's blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index was down 0.9 percent at 2,265.47, losing ground for the 12th session, its longest losing streak since its creation in the late 1980s.
The broader STOXX 600 index trades at 10.2 times 12-month forward earnings, below a 10-year average of 13.3, according to DataStream.
Dominic Rossi, chief investment officer at Fidelity International's equity unit, which has 215 billion euros ($303 billion) in assets, said technicals were pointing to " very oversold conditions" and equities were cheap.
" We are going to be in an era where stocks are going to be cheap. Equities are seen as a risky asset class these days ... and as result investors are going demand very high equity risk premiums. They look cheap, but there is a reason why they look cheap because people see them as very risky," he said, adding he expected this to last 2-3 years.
Data from 2iQ Research showed European corporate insiders have been scooping up shares in their companies in large volumes this month even as the market plummets to two-year lows.
According to the Frankfurt-based research firm which monitors directors' dealings in Europe, corporate insiders have bought around many times times shares more than they have sold in August -- the buy/sell ratio is 6.59 this month, the highest since 2003, and way above the median ratio of 0.81 over the past eight years.
FED TO THE RESCUE?
Europe's two volatility indices, The Euro STOXX 50 volatility index and the VDAX-NEW volatility index , hit their highest levels since late 2008, signalling a sharp rise in investor risk aversion and a run to safe-haven assets. " Only in the days after the collapse of Lehmann in 2008, we have seen higher levels," a trader said.
Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was flat, while France's CAC40 was up 0.4 percent.
The German DAX remained underperformed with a 1.6 percent loss, as utility heavy-weights E.ON < EONGn.DE> and RWE weighed on the blue-chip index.
RWE said first-half profit was hit by a government decision to phase out nuclear power. The STOXX Europe 600 Utilities , down 2 percent was the biggest sector decliner.
Investors were looking to a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting later for action that could brake the slide hoping for fresh moves after just completing a $600 billion bond programme known as QE2 in June.
" With global equity markets in a slide the chances have risen that the Fed joins in tonight to the global crisis response. At this point the Fed might still explore other options before venturing into fully fledged QE3, said Commerzbank analyst Benjamin Schroeder.
Fidelity's Rossi said he had reservations. " I am not confident that quantitive easing is leading to improvement in economic growth. Apart from providing a boost to equity markets in short run, I am not sure if it is going to lead to a sustainable path," he said. (Editing by Dan Lalor) ($1= 0.7099 euro)
London Burning
Rioting is spreading across London and to other cities across the nation as successive neighbourhoods succumb to looting and lawlessness.
As the third straight day of unrest came to a close, buildings and cars burned and shops continued to be vandalised and looted.
Police closed streets and evacuated neighbourhoods and British Prime Minister David Cameron called a halt to his holiday and flew home to deal with the crisis.
North of the River Thames, gangs of youths roamed the streets of Hackney, while buildings were engulfed in flames south of the river in Croydon, Peckham and Lewisham.
Looters and vandals had descended on Clapham, in London’s south-west, Notting Hill, in the city’s west, and Camden in the north. Police also reported outbreaks in Newham and Bethnal Green, where about 100 people were looting a Tesco supermarket.
Disturbances were also reported in Liverpool, Leeds, Bristol and Birmingham on Tuesday morning.
The fresh waves of violence came as Mr Cameron flew home from Italy to chair an emergency meeting and meet police and government officials.
In Hackney, hundreds of riot police poured in to try to contain the disturbance in a district just a few kilometres from where the 2012 Olympics will take place this time next year.
As darkness fell, officers wielding batons pushed the youths back, while residents hoping to return to their homes were kept behind police cordons.
In Croydon, a large furniture store was ablaze, sending flames leaping into the night sky.
Croydon council leader Mike Fisher told the BBC about 100 masked youths were trying to loot the building and cause further damage.
There were also reports of looters starting to target businesses in Clapham, just before 11pm.
Gangs of hooded youths carrying petrol bombs were roaming Clapham Junction, the BBC reported.
Asia Leads US Futures Higher
Asia has begun the rebound today with China and Australia bouncing off lows and now posting gains on the day.
The Federal Reserve will meet today as the unprecedented downgrade of the U.S.’s top credit rating increases the likelihood that America’s recovery will falter.
Speculation is growing Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may do more to help restore confidence, with Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff predicting that the U.S. central bank will embark on a third round of asset purchases. South Korea and Taiwan government- linked funds bought shares, helping equities trim their declines.
Australian stocks staged a spectacular recovery today, reversing a massive slide to end higher, as margin-call selling faded and amid hopes the US Federal Reserve may announce a further round of stimulus after its meeting overnight.
After sinking more than 5.5 per cent in morning trade, the benchmark S& P/ASX200 index performed a stunning turnaround during the afternoon to close up 48.7 points, or 1.2 per cent, at 4034.8, posting its first gain in six days. The broader All Ordinaries index gained 40 points, or 1 per cent, to 4096.7.
The market added about $15 billion today, but is still down $120 billion since last Tuesday when the selloff started.
Share market heavyweight BHP Billiton was down 45 cents, or 1.2 per cent, at $37.05 while Rio Tinto advanced $1.11, or 1.6 per cent, to $69.74.
Making headlines, National Australia Bank said it is on track to deliver an annual profit higher than $5.5 billion after a strong June quarter earnings result emphasised the return of margin growth for the bank. NAB finished up 60 cents, or 2.87 per cent, at $21.50.
Coca-Cola Amatil will consolidate three SPCA Ardmona manufacturing sites in Victoria into two, after reporting a 27.8 per cent fall in first half net profit. The soft drink supplier also said it would re-enter the beer market despite having to give up its beer operations if SABMiller succeeds in its takeover bid for Foster’s Group.
Coca-Cola Amatil finished 17 cents stronger at $10.69.Preliminary national turnover was 4.23 billion securities worth $10.4 billion.
Gold stocks shone after the price of the precious metal hit a new record high of well over $US1700 per ounce. The spot price of gold in Sydney jumped to $US1,747.30 per ounce, up $US37.12 from Monday’s local close.
Philippines-focused gold miner OceanaGold Corp was the best performing stock in the S& P/ASX200 index, finishing up 19 cents, or 9.95 per cent, at $2.10. Burkina Faso-focused gold explorer Gryphon Minerals also performed strongly, gaining 9.3 per cent to $1.65, but Australia’s largest gold miner, Newcrest, eased 10 cents to $38.72.
South Korea Bans Shorting
South Korea has imposed a three-month ban on stock short-selling and eased the limit on daily share buybacks, its latest move to contain stock market volatility.
The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said in a statement that increased short-selling had triggered market instability amid recent sharp declines in the stock market.
“It is uncertain whether short-selling is to blame for the KOSPI’s sharp fall over the past week … but the ban on short-selling showed the regulator’s commitment to proactively coping with market problems,” said Shinhan Investment Corp analyst Han Beom-ho.
The FSC added: “There is a limit on companies buying back their own shares from the stock market, but if necessary to stabilise the market it can be increased with FSC approval.”
According to the FSC, daily short positions on Aug. 3 reached a record high of 432.8 billion won ($399.8 million), mainly led by foreign and institutional investors, compared with an average of 160.8 billion won for the first half.
Yonhap News Agency reported that the regulator had also asked financial institutions to be more flexible on their loss-cut rules.
The KOSPI has lost 17 percent since Aug. 1. On Tuesday, the benchmark index finished down 3.64 percent at 1,801.35, the weakest close since Sept. 9, 2010, after tanking as much as 9.9 percent intraday.
The regulator’s move comes after a wild week for South Korean stocks, which have seen the worst percentage drop since the 1998 financial crisis. ($1 = 1082.650 won)
