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krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:53  
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Oil N' Gold Focus Reports


The US job market remained sluggish in August. Against consensus of a +90K increase, non-farm payrolls were unchanged from a month ago while July's addition was revised lower to 85K. The unemployment rate stayed at 9.1% during the month. Risk appetite dropped after the data with Wall Street slipping for the second day. In the commodity sector, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil price plunged to a 4-day low of 85.42 while the equivalent Brent crude contract fell to 111.36, the lowest level in 3 days. On the contrary, gold jumped to a 1-week high of 1884.6 as the US dollar dropped and demand for safe-haven assets increased on deteriorating US outlook.

Disappointing US job data upstaged potential oil supply tightening in Europe after the ban on Syria's exports. The EU formally announced the decision to further tighten the sanctions against Syria and to impose a ban on the import of Syrian oil to the member countries. While not a member in OPEC, Syria's net petroleum exports were estimated to be 109K bpd in 2010, according to DOE/EIA. Most of its oil is exported to European countries, in particular Germany, Italy and France. While full details of the sanctions will be published on Saturday, these are expected to negatively affect European refineries which have been facing oil shortage since the turmoil in Libya.



After CME hiked gold margin for the second time in a month last week, the market began to speculate that the Exchange has more to go. Some market participants have also started to worry that gold price will perform like silver which had corrected almost -30% in a week after the CME raised margin requirements on the white metal 5 times in 2 weeks during late April and early May.

Using current prices, the initial margin as a percentage of contract value gold is 5%. This remains well- below silver's 10%. Some market participants expect the CME will raise gold's margin to the level similar to that of silver's in relative term. We disagree with the notion. Indeed, CME's moves have been driven by volatility. Gold is by nature less volatile than silver. Therefore, using relative values to predict CME's margin hikes are not reasonable.
 
 
krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:50  
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Concern rising about Iran military nuclear work - IAEA
By Fredrik Dahl

  VIENNA (Reuters) - The International Atomic Energy Agency is " increasingly concerned" about possible activity in Iran to develop a nuclear payload for a missile, the IAEA said in a confidential report obtained by Reuters on Friday.

  The U.N. nuclear agency's report said it continued to receive new information adding to such worries.

  The IAEA's information had come from many states and also through its own efforts, and was " broadly consistent and credible in terms of technical detail, the time frame in which the activities were conducted and the people and organisations involved."

  The developments highlighted in the IAEA's latest quarterly inspection report are likely to fan Western suspicions about the underlying nature of Iran's nuclear activity, which Western powers suspect is aimed at developing atom bombs.

  It could provide additional arguments for the United States and its European allies to further tighten sanctions pressure on Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers.

  The IAEA used " stark language" to show its concerns about possible military links to Iran's nuclear programme, a U.S.-based think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said in a commentary.

  Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, dismissed what he called " baseless allegations" about Iran's programme.

  But he nevertheless described the report as a step in the right direction, saying it showed that Iran had fully cooperated with the IAEA by allowing a senior nuclear inspector full access to atomic sites during a five-day visit last month.

  " This new trend of positive cooperation between Iran and the IAEA should continue," Soltanieh told Reuters.

  Western diplomats have dismissed Iran's attempt to show increased openness about its nuclear work, saying it is still failing to address core concerns about its aims.

  In addition to addressing the issue of alleged military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme, the U.N. agency said Tehran had begun installing machines for higher-grade uranium enrichment in an underground bunker near the holy city of Qom.

  Shifting enrichment activity to such a subterranean site could offer greater protection against any attacks by Israel or the United States, which have both said they do not rule out pre-emptive strikes to stop Iran getting nuclear weapons.

  At a separate research and development site, the Vienna-based IAEA said, Iran had started enriching uranium experimentally with a more advanced model of centrifuge than the erratic, 1970s vintage machine it has been using for years.

  NUCLEAR MISSILE WORK?

  " Iran has made progress on the enrichment side," a diplomat familiar with the IAEA's investigation said, adding the Islamic state was making a " lot of effort" to get the underground Fordow site up and running.

  Uranium enriched to a low level of fissile purity is suitable for running civilian nuclear power plants. If refined to a much higher degree, it forms the core of nuclear bombs.

  The report showed that Iran has now produced a total of more than 4.5 tonnes of low-enriched uranium since the activity began in 2007, an amount which experts say could provide material for at least two bombs if refined much more. Its output of higher-grade refined uranium had also risen.

  For several years, the IAEA has been investigating Western intelligence reports indicating Iran has coordinated efforts to process uranium, test explosives at high altitude and revamp a ballistic missile cone to accommodate a nuclear warhead.

  The IAEA, tasked with ensuring that nuclear technology is not diverted for military aims, says Iran has not engaged with the agency in substance on these issues since 2008.

  The IAEA report said it was " increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile, about which the agency continues to receive new information."

  Iran denies harbouring any nuclear weapon ambitions, saying it wants to refine uranium only for electricity or isotopes for medicine and agriculture. But it has long restricted the access of IAEA inspectors, stoking concerns abroad.

  " I categorically reject this sort of allegation. I'm 100 percent sure (about Iran's) exclusively peaceful activities," Soltanieh said.
 
 
krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:49  
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North Korea readies for harvest as food aid flows in
By Jeremy Laurence

  WONJONG BORDER POST, North Korea (Reuters) - Impoverished North Korea appears to have emerged from the depths of a bad winter and late spring in reasonable shape, at least in the far north and south, where a variety of crops are nearly ready for harvest.

  The North has pleaded for food aid this year due to bad weather and the impact of international sanctions imposed for its nuclear programme, winning donations in recent months from Russia, the European Union and U.N. organisations after sending in their own assessment teams.

  But South Korea and the United States have so far refused food aid, granting only emergency aid to help the impoverished state deal with flood damage from a series of bad storms in the middle of the year.

  Washington says it is still assessing the North's requests, while Seoul says it doubts Pyongyang's pleas are genuine. Until the imposition of sanctions, the two had been the biggest aid donors to the North, which has suffered chronic food shortages for years.

  During a five-day trip which started near the China-Russia border and ended at the South Korean border, foreign journalists saw that fields in the respective Rason and Kumgang zones were lush with crops, sometimes stretching over many acres.

  " We had bad winter, and late spring, but the crops look good now," said a North Korean guide who escorted a group of foreign journalists on a rare trip through the areas this week. The harvest is due in October.

  From the North Korean border post of Wonjong to the port of Sonbong, about 70 km (43 miles) away, the area had many fields of corn and rice. Maize was growing over a metre high in small plots around many of the small bungalow style houses in village compounds while communal rice fields sometimes stretched for acres.

  Soybeans and potatoes are also grown in the area, the North Korean guide said. There was little livestock, but some healthy-looking cows were seen grazing. Three people were seen riding horses.

  Western journalists have not been taken to the area before, at least in recent memory. Pyongyang, with China's backing, has this year broken ground on new infrastructure projects in the zone as it attempts to woo foreign investors to generate hard currency for the state's flailing economy.

  KUMGANG THRIVES

  In another special 'international' zone with more market-oriented rules, the resort of Kumgang which was built with South Korean capital, the area was lush with the same crops, as well as barley and cabbage. There were also some orchards, along green houses with vegetables.

  Men, women and children were working in the fields, along with a couple of ox-drawn ploughs.

  But, not one item of mechanised farm equipment was seen during the entire trip.

  An Australian tourist, who travelled in the centre of the country, driving two hours north of Pyongyang and five hours from the capital to the South Korean border, said he had seen acres and acres of crops ready for harvest.

  " I don't know about the politics of it all, but what I saw was plenty of crops that looked really good," said 51-year-old Max Ward, touring the country for a week with a friend.

  " And the kids all seemed happy and they certainly didn't look like they were starving. Sure, there is poverty, but no more than any other third world country."

  A resident of the Rason area, who cannot be identified, said adults were entitled to 700 grams (1.54 pounds) of rice per day and children 300 grams under the socialist state's public distribution system.

  " Everyone uses the market to buy everything," he said. " This is allowed because we are in the Rason Special Economic Zone."

  The marketplace was a hive of activity when foreign journalists were shown around the complex which was the size of about four football fields. Bags of rice and other grains as well as meats and cooked foods were also for sale.

  But trading was not just restricted to the market. Vendors were sold juice and watermelon throughout the town.

  At the beach front, a few dozen people were seen having a picnic, and about a dozen people were swimming in the sea.

  Outside a tourist office in the town, a vendor was even selling ice-cream. Despite pleas for food aid, reclusive North Korea observes of policy of juche, or isolation, saying it can stand on its own without any outside help.
 

 
krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:47  
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Wall St Week Ahead: QE3 no silver bullet for markets
By Edward Krudy

  NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Friday's jobs report that showed hiring in the United States unexpectedly ground to a halt in August is increasing speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will move to stimulate the economy. But will it help stocks?

  Fed action -- if it happens -- is no longer viewed as the elixir for the stock market it once was.

  Wall Street tumbled over 2 percent on Friday as investors fretted more about the economic outlook rather than looking ahead to another round of Fed bond buying.

  Next week, the question of whether the Fed will step up to the plate with another round of quantitative easing will take center stage with a highly anticipated speech from President Barack Obama. That could make for another volatile week.

  This time last year, anticipation of a second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, sparked an almost uninterrupted rally that lifted the S& P 500 around 30 percent from August to May.

  What a difference a year makes. Confidence in policy makers is sapping away as the economy languishes, the United States grapples with the loss of its top-notch credit rating, and the European Union seems to be coming undone at the seams.

  Wall Street sees an 80 percent chance the Federal Reserve will intervene in the bond market to lower long-term interest rates, according to a Reuters poll on Friday.

  But Friday's action in the stock market signaled that equity investors do not see that prospect as silver bullet for their woes. The broad-based S& P 500 index fell 2.5 percent on the day.

  " This downdraft is based on sentiment and that has to be turned around," said Brian Battle, vice president of trading at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago. " I think we're in for a longer trend of either malaise or just a down channel."

  That means traders and investors who were hoping for a return to normalcy after extreme volatility in August may have to wait a little longer.

  Obama is due to address a joint session of Congress on Thursday to lay out plans to create jobs, boost economic growth and lower the deficit.

  He faces an uphill struggle when it come to reassuring investors, who fault the lack of consensus in Washington. Heading into an election year, the disharmony is not likely to get better any time soon.

  Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, and figures for previous months were also revised down to show employers created a combined 58,000 fewer jobs than had been thought in June and July.

  The U.S. Treasury market rallied after the data as Goldman Sachs and other U.S. primary dealers -- big Wall Street firms that do business directly with the Fed -- said they expect the U.S. central bank to start buying longer-dated bonds after its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

  Seasoned traders say that August's extreme volatility was one of the most trying periods in living memory, outstripping the 2008-2009 meltdown and the 1987 stock market crash on Black Monday.

  " I've been doing this for 20 years and it's never been more exhausting," said the chief executive of a New York-based proprietary trading firm, who said many of his traders closed out their positions in August, reducing the firm's inventories to just 15 to 20 percent of what they could be.

  At least some of that volatility looks set to spill over into September until there is more clarity over the economy and what the Fed is likely to do at its Sept. 20-21 meeting.

  But some fund managers who take a more long-term view are using pullbacks to cut back positions that have done less well while increasing positions in their preferred stocks.

  Many fund managers are still convinced the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and stocks will rally into the end of the year.

  One of them, Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia, does not expect the Fed to act this month. He is not expecting a recession, but admits he has become more defensive.

  " We used some of the volatility to swap out lower yields for higher yields, believing that a combination of income with capital growth potential will help us weather days like today," he said. " Equity values should still hold their own if not appreciate given the still-good corporate profit picture."

  (Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments on this column can be e-mailed to: edward.krudy(at)thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting by Edward
 
 
krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:46  
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Oil falls as U.S. job growth stalls
* U.S. nonfarm payrolls show no growth, worst in a year

  * U.S. Gulf of Mexico braces for a tropical storm

  * Brent-U.S. spread reaches new record

  * EU sanctions Syrian oil, lifts Libya bans

  * Economists say odds increase for more U.S. Fed stimulus

  (Adds settlement prices and details)

  By Joshua Schneyer

  NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Oil fell on Friday as stalled U.S. job growth in August rekindled worries of another will be recession, which would slow fuel demand.

  Pressure from the jobs data more than offset support from oil companies shutting down nearly half of the crude production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Tropical Storm Lee.

  U.S. nonfarm payrolls were unchanged last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. The weakest job reading in a year bucked economists' expectations for a gain of 75,000 jobs.

  Brent fell by $1.96 a barrel to settle at $112.33. U.S. crude was down $2.90 at $86.03. U.S. crude fell $2.48 a barrel to settle at $86.45 a barrel, in trading volume around 37 percent below the 30-day average.

  U.S. financial markets will close on Monday for Labor Day, although electronic trading will remain active.

  Stunted jobs growth would weigh on fuel demand, but it may also raise the odds of more quantitative easing (QE) from by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That could cheapen borrowing, weaken the dollar, and encourage investment in commodities as an asset class.

  " The (jobs) data reinforces our concern that the U.S. economy has stalled, and we think there is a 60 percent chance it will fall into recession by the end of the year or at the start of next year," said Rachel Ziemba at Roubini Global Economics in London.

  " We think QE3 is coming," she said.

  The August U.S. jobs data will be " likely enough to spur Fed easing action at the September meeting," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note.

  The Fed may extend the maturity of its Treasuries holdings after a policy meeting slated for Sept. 20-21, they added.

  BRENT-WTI SPREAD WIDENS

  The spread between Europe's benchmark crude and U.S. crude surged to as much as $26.98 a barrel, a new record.

  European Union governments agreed to ban imports of oil from Syria, which typically ships 150,000 barrels per day.

  The EU also lifted sanctions on Libyan ports and oil firms, but few expect the country's normal oil production -- around 1.6 million bpd -- to be restored soon, after a civil war halted its oil sector this year.

  The newly-appointed chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation expressed optimism this week that full production could be restored within 15 months.

  Oil also followed equities markets lower, as the S& P 500 index shed 2.5 percent. Copper, another economic bellwether, fell 0.6 percent in London. Gold, a perceived safe haven bet, jumped nearly 3 percent to a 1-1/2 week high.

  STORM RISK

  Friday's oil losses wiped out part of U.S. crude's 4.1 percent gain in the week through Thursday, when it had settled at a one-month high, in part due to a tropical storm threat in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

  Oil companies shut in 666,321 barrels of crude production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico on Friday, or 48 percent of the region's output, as they braced for Tropical Storm Lee.

  The weather cycle is moving towards Louisiana and has forced wide evacuations of offshore oil platforms.

  BP Plc, the largest oil producer in the Gulf, evacuated all personnel from its platforms in the region. Refiners on the Gulf Coast said they were getting ready for up to 15 inches (38 cm) of rain in the next 48 hours.

  " The fact that this storm isn't very supportive (for U.S. crude prices) shows you that the U.S. is well supplied," said Richard Ilczyszyn at MF Global in Chicago.

  Speculators hiked their bets on rising U.S. crude oil prices in the week to Aug. 30, raising their net longs futures and options positions by the largest percentage amount since June, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

  Hedge funds and other large investors increased their net longs on the New York Mercantile Exchange by 18,422 or 12 percent to 161,617.
 
 
krisluke
    03-Sep-2011 15:44  
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Zero job growth sparks US bonds, gold rally
* Treasuries surge long US bond yields at Feb 2009 lows

  * Swiss franc, gold also up on flight to safety

  * Stocks dive after Aug U.S. jobs show no growth from July (Updates with Wall Street's close)

  By Barani Krishnan

  NEW YORK, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Paralysis in the U.S. jobs market reinforced fears of recession on Friday, driving investors out of stocks and into the safety of bonds, gold and the Swiss franc.

  Stocks on Wall Street and other major exchanges closed down more than 2 percent after the U.S. Labor Department said employers added no net new jobs last month and July's total was revised lower.

  The biggest reaction came in the U.S. Treasuries market, where the yield on the 30-year bond hit two-and-a-half-year lows on growing bets the dismal data will compel the Federal Reserve to take additional steps to boost the economy.

  After a treacherous August of out-sized market volatility, the jobs report fed worries that September could bring more of the same, especially if economic data rekindles fear of another recession.

  " There are a lot of confidence issues in the marketplace the jobs number only made things worse," said Sal Arnuk, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. " My only question is 'Why the market isn't down more?'"

  U.S. equities suffered their biggest drop in two weeks.

  The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 253.31 points, or 2.20 percent, at 11,240.26. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 30.45 points, or 2.53 percent, at 1,173.97. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 66.71 points, or 2.58 percent, at 2,480.33.

  The MSCI world equity index fell 2.3 percent while European stocks slid 2.5 percent. Emerging stocks dropped by 1.6 percent.

  President Barack Obama, in a speech set for Sept. 8, will unveil a jobs program he hopes will provide " meaningful" tax relief and help the nation's long-term unemployed, a top aide told Reuters Insider.

  Some think stocks will suffer from anemic jobs growth, at least for a while.

  " What the market is looking for this time, realizing that unemployment is a barrier, and until the federal government wakes up and realizes what the restraints are and designs a program attacking restraints, it's not going to make much progress," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

  Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up 35/32 in price, with the yield at 1.9961 percent, down more than 8 basis points on the day.

  The 10-year yield is within striking distance of 1.976 percent, an intraday low set in mid-August, according to Tradeweb, and a level not seen in at least 60 years.

  In Treasury Inflation Protected Securities trading, the yield on 10-year TIPS touched minus 0.02 percent, down 7 basis points from late Thursday. This signaled that traders have slashed their expectations for long-term U.S. economic growth and inflation.

  There is now a growing expectation the Federal Open Market Committee will extend the maturity of its $1.65 trillion Treasuries holdings at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting.

  The intended effect would be to push rates lower throughout the economy in an attempt to ignite consumer demand.

  " This (jobs) report will certainly strengthen the case for the doves on the committee going into the next meeting later this month," said Millan Mulraine, senior U.S. macro strategist with TD Securities in New York.

  In a research note, Goldman Sachs economists said they expect the Fed will announce plans to lengthen the average maturity of its portfolio, " with sales of relatively short-dated Treasuries and purchases of relatively long-dated Treasuries."

  The 30-year Treasury bond soared more than three points in price. Yields dropped to 3.32 percent, the lowest since Jan. 2009.

  Bund futures rose 1.2 percent, hitting a record high on safe-haven demand.

  In currency trading, the Swiss franc was up nearly 1 percent at 0.7898 to the dollar after hitting session highs at 0.7959.

  The euro was near $1.419, having hit a three-week low of $1.418 earlier on confirmation that Greece will miss its 2011 deficit target of 7.6 percent and uncertainty over Italy's commitment to austerity measures.

  Benchmark U.S. gold futuressettled up 2.6 percent, just shy of $1,877 an ounce after peaking at $1,885 during the session.

  Crude oil in New York finished down 2.8 percent at below $87 a barrel, after slipping to a session low $85.42, on worries a weaker U.S. economy would hurt energy demand. The United States is the world's No. 1 energy consumer. (Reporting by Richard Leong, Chuck Mikolajczak, Angela Moon and Joshua Schneyer in New York and Barbara Lewis and Natsuko Waki in London Writing by Barani Krishnan Editing by Dan Grebler)
 

 
krisluke
    01-Sep-2011 23:07  
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Let's talk about the dollar for a moment... The US Dollar has been stuck in a very large trading range during the past 4 months. But when the dollar actually breaks out of this pattern in either direction we should see some big price movements across the board in stocks and commodities.

From July through mid-August I was bearish on the dollar. But over the past 2 weeks the price action has become more neutral/bullish in my opinion. Its clear there is still indecision with the dollar value because every surge in price either up or down is quickly followed by a surge in the opposite direction. The key here is that the support level down at the 73.50 area has held more than three times and now I think the downward momentum is about to shift. The UUP bullish dollar etf is a good option.

Dollar Index Chart



Gold Chart:

Looking at the gold chart I see potential for another sharp drop to the low $1600's. While I like the look of this chart for lower prices there is still a wild card which is the Euro-Land issues... I'm not willing to bet on lower prices because we could wake up any day to some poor news which instantly sends gold higher. Rather I am waiting for things to unfold then look to buy again for another 10-20% gain on the next rally.



Crude Oil Chart:

This chart is straight forward... The trend is down and at this time all bounces are to be looked at as shorting opportunities.



SP500 Index:

The equities market has broken down sharply over the past couple months and now we are seeing a rebound and small cap stocks are making big gains. With the dollar looking bullish and stocks trading up at resistance I have a feeling we may see another downward move within the next week or so to test the lows or make a new low before putting in a real bottom.

Mid-Week Trend Trading Conclusion:



In short, I feel the market overall is leaning towards lower prices in the coming week or two. After that we will have to re-analyze because it may be a fantastic buying opportunity for stocks and commodities.
 
 
krisluke
    01-Sep-2011 23:05  
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After reaching our targeted resistance area among 89.00-90.00, the commodity settled around 89.00 pivot. Again we should mention the significance of this level for the near term direction at the same time our eyes are on 95.00 region as the next potential upside target, however we should follow price action at 90.00 before confirming any upside move. Over intraday basis and for this morning, we think that a downside correction may occur toward 87.60 area so long as price is steady below 90.00.

The trading range for today is among the major support at 85.00 and the major resistance at 92.50.

The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.

Support: 88.60, 87.70, 86.80, 86.35, 85.90
Resistance: 89.60, 89.80, 90.50, 91.50, 92.40

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling oil around 89.20 targeting 88.20 and 87.50. Stop loss with hourly closing above 90.00

 
 
krisluke
    01-Sep-2011 23:03  
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Wall St higher after manufacturing data
* ISM data shows U.S. factory sector not as weak as feared

  * Jobless claims fall 12,000 last week

  * Stocks up: Dow 0.3 pct, S& P 0.2 pct, Nasdaq 0.3 pct (Updates to midmorning)

  By Angela Moon

  NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks gained on Thursday after data showed factory activity cooled in August but was still expanding, easing investors' fears the economy could be headed for another recession.

  Energy and information technology stocks led the market higher. The S& P energy sector index rose 0.6 percent and the information technology sector gained 0.2 percent.

  Wall Street started off little changed, but rose after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) factory activity index stayed above 50, the expansion threshold. The reading was 50.6, down from 50.9 in the previous month, but topped the forecast of 48.5.

  " Relative to the fear that was in the markets a few weeks ago, ISM wasn't too bad. The fact that we're getting confirmation that some numbers aren't too bad is encouraging," said Mark Foster, who helps manage $500 million at Kirr Marbach & Co in Columbus, Indiana.

  The Dow Jones industrial average was up 32.51 points, or 0.28 percent, at 11,646.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 2.28 points, or 0.19 percent, at 1,221.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 7.75 points, or 0.30 percent, at 2,587.21.

  The Nasdaq was supported by Ciena Corp which jumped 19.3 percent to $14.63. The communication equipment maker posted a profit for the first time in three years, surprising analysts who expected another loss, as cost cuts helped boost margins.

  U.S. construction spending fell unexpectedly in July as public construction outlays dropped to their lowest level since December 2006 and private spending also sagged, separate data showed.

  Weekly jobless claims declined by 12,000 in the latest week, while nonfarm productivity was weaker than previously thought in the second quarter.
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:35  
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Over the past week, Hurricane Irene grew from a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane as it blew north along the East Coast of the United States. High winds and tremendous rainfall downed trees and battered shorelines, leaving millions without power and causing some 26 deaths across nine states. Though Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm as it made landfall in New York, the heavy downpours have caused flooding problems across many states that are still unfolding. Collected below are some images from the brief, eventful life of Hurricane Irene.

Obama, USA President Smiley

 

 
EdwardLiu
    31-Aug-2011 02:29  
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The August FOMC minutes are out! Here are some highlights:
  • Three members wanted to take stronger action at the August meeting
  • Some members wanted to set explicit targets for unemployment and inflation
  • Fischer dissented because he thought nonmonetary factors were limiting growth
  • Kocherlakota dissented because unemployment had improved, while inflation had risen, since QE2 was launched
  • Plosser thought the reference to 2013 " might well be misinterpreted as suggesting that monetary policy was no longer contingent on how the economic outlook evolved


No big moves in the market following the release



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/august-fomc-minutes-2011-8#ixzz1WXOTiYEe
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:29  
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Hurricane Irene Smiley

 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:22  
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US Stocks Pare Losses As Investors Await Fed Minutes



NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. stocks pared early losses Tuesday as investors hope the minutes from the latest Fed meeting will offer clues on the central bank's next approach to the struggling economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 37 points, or 0.3%, to 11582. The blue-chip index earlier dropped as much as 110 points after a dismal reading on consumer confidence. It recovered and briefly turned positive before recently inching lower.

Tuesday's losses come after the Dow registered a 255-point gain in the previous session, aided by relief that Hurricane IreneSmiley wasn't as damaging as initially feared.

The market's swing ...
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:16  
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(Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve official who dissented from the U.S. central bank's move this month to ease monetary policy further signaled he would drop his opposition.

But Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stopped well short of saying he would support any further easing, and his remarks show he remains firmly on the hawkish wing of the Fed's policy-setting panel.

The Fed, which has already cut short-term interest rates to near zero and bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities to boost the recovery, said on August 9 it would likely keep benchmark U.S. rates exceptionally low for the next two years. The decision drew three dissents, the most in nearly 20 years.

" I see no reason to revisit the decisions of August 2011," Kocherlakota said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Association of State Treasurers in Bismarck, North Dakota.

" I believe that undoing this commitment in the near term would undercut the ability of the Committee to offer similar conditional commitments in the future, and this ability has certainly proved very useful in the past three years," Kocherlakota said. " So, I plan to abide by the August 2011 commitment in thinking about my own future decisions."

Kocherlakota, whose turn to vote on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee runs through the end of this year, stopped short of promising not to dissent on future Fed decisions, however, saying that " the case for any additional easing would have to be made on its own merits."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke plans a two-day policy-setting meeting next month to discuss possible plans for further easing. Originally the talks had been due to last only a day.

Based on Kocherlakota's remarks, such a decision would be a hard sell for him, unless inflation dropped sharply.

Both inflation and inflation expectations are higher, and unemployment is lower and expected to drop further, than last November when the Fed embarked on its most recent round of monetary stimulus, Kocherlakota said.

He expects the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, core PCE (personal consumption expenditure), to rise to 2.1 percent next year versus an expectation of about 1.3 percent last November.

Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate, which was then at 9.8 percent, has dropped to 9.1 percent, and he expects it to fall to below 8.5 percent by the end of next year.

While it was still " disturbingly high," he said, the Fed would have been unable to push it lower without boosting inflation above its 2 percent target, which in turn could unmoor inflation expectations and undercut the Fed's ability to keep inflation in check.

The Fed's policy-setting panel is next scheduled to meet in mid-SeptemberSmiley to discuss possible easing optionsSmiley.
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:13  
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Economic Calendar 8/31/11 Print E-mail
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Aug -31 -30
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Aug 52.1
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jul P 1.40% 3.80%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jul P -1.90% -1.70%
01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Aug 47.6
05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jul 4.20% 5.80%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug -10K -11K
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Aug 7.00% 7.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Aug P 2.50% 2.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul 9.90% 9.90%
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Aug 59.40%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Aug 103K 114K
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jun 0.00% -0.30%
13:45 USD Chicago PMI Aug 53.5 58.8
14:00 USD Factory Orders Jul 1.00% -0.80%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.5M -2.2M
 
 

 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:09  
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WTI crude oil price fell from a 2-week high in European session as Hurricane Irene has done less damage on oil infrastructure than previously expected. As pipelines, terminals and refineries did not seem to get hurt by the storm, oil production should remain intact. Gold price changed little at 1785/1800 level. Price may gain supports and rise as Indians extend purchases during the festive season.

Indian festivals are clustered in the second half of the year: Eid this month, Diwali in October and the wedding season later in the year. The chart below shows that gold performed better in the second half of a year over the past 30 years. This might be helped by the festive season in India. Rajesh Exports, India's biggest jewelry maker, expected that gold buying (jewelry, coins, bars and medallions) may rise to 250 metric tons in the 3 months ending November 30, up +25% from the same period last year. Elevated gold prices have not dented investors' interest in the yellow metal.

The global economic outlook does not go as strong as what recent price movements have suggested. Christine Lagarde, the new managing director of the IMF, warned that the world economy is in a 'dangerous new phase' and we are at risk of 'seeing the fragile recovery derailed'. The IMF revised lowered its economic forecasts. The world GDP will probably grow +4.2% in 2011, down from June's estimate of +4.3%, and +4.3% in 2012, down from 4.5% projected previously. Most of the expansion will be driven by emerging markets as downside risks growth in advanced economies are increasing. In the US, GDP growth is trimmed to +1.6% for 2011 and +2% for 2012 from ++2.5% and +2.7% respectively. The fund also revised down Eurozone's growth rates to +1.9% for 2011 and +0.4% for 2012 from +2% and +1.7% respectively.

Eurozone's confidence deteriorated sharply in August. With exception of consumer confidence, all other indices fell much more than the market had anticipated. Consumer confidence dropped to -16.5 (consensus: -16.6) in August from a revised -11 in July. Economic confidence slipped to 98.3 while July's reading was revised lower to 103. Industrial confidence fell into the negative territory (-2.9) in August while the reading in July was revised down to 1. Services confidence dropped to 3.7, more than halving July's 7.9. In the US, the S& P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index probably contracted -4.9% y/y in June after declining -4.5% a month ago. Consumer confidence in the country might have dipped -7 points to 52.5 in August. The Fed will also released minutes for the August FOMC meeting today.

 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:06  
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Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Comex Gold (GC)



Intraday bias in gold is mildly on the upside for the moment and rebound from 1705.4 should extend further high. Though, we'd expect strong resistance at around 1917.9 to limit upside and bring another fall to continue the consolidation. Below 1766.4 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1705.4 support and possibly below. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1917.9 will target 2000 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, with daily MACD crossed below signal line, a short term top is at least formed at 1917.9 in gold. But there is no sign of trend reversal yet. Price actions from 1917.9 are expected to develop sideway consolidations for a while. Note that firstly, such consolidation should be contained well above 1577.4 resistance turned support. Secondly, strong resistance might be seen from 2000 psychological level in near term in case of rally attempt. Hence, Gold could gyrate between 1600/2000 for a while.
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:03  
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Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)



Crude oil recovers further today but after all, it's staying in range of 75.71/89.00. Intraday bias remains neutral and such consolidation might extend further. But we'll stay bearish 89.00 resistances holds and expect an eventual downside breakout. Below 82.95 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 75.71 first. Break will resume whole fall from 114.83 towards 70 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the second leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24 and should have finished at 114.83 already. Current decline should target next key cluster support at 64.23 (61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38) next. Sustained break will pave the way to retest 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 89.61 resistance is needed to be the first signal of bottoming or we'll stay bearish.

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 02:00  
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Oil rose to the highest level in almost four weeks in New York, advancing with gasoline and heating oil as East Coast refineries worked to restart after Hurricane Irene Smileyand on signs the housing market is stabilizing.

Crude futures increased as much as 2.2 percent as gasoline jumped after Sunoco Inc. shut a fuel-making unit at its Philadelphia refinery and other terminals operated at reduced rates. The S& P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities decreased at a slower pace in June, indicating the deterioration is lessening.

“We’re probably seeing the residual impact of Irene,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc., an energy advisory company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The product markets are leading us higher. It’s the penultimate day for trading the September gasoline contract, which you can deliver summer-grade gasoline against.”

Crude for October delivery rose $1.47, or 1.7 percent, to $88.74 a barrel at 12:27 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract ranged from $86.46 to $89.21, the highest price since Aug. 4. Prices have fallen 2.9 percent this year.

Brent oil for October settlement gained $1.98, or 1.8 percent, to $113.86 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $25.12 to U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures, compared with a record close of $26.21 on Aug. 19.

Forecasters were also watching Tropical Storm Katia, which was slowly strengthening over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean as of 11 a.m. Miami time, had sustained winds of 45 miles (72 kilometers) an hour. Katia is expected to become a hurricane, with winds of 74 mph or more, by Sept. 1.

Gasoline Rises



Gasoline for September delivery rose 6.06 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $2.967 a gallon on the Nymex. Prices have risen 53 percent in the past year.

Heating oil for September delivery gained 5.98 cents, or 2 percent, to $3.07 a gallon. Futures have risen for eight consecutive days.

Prices also increased after the CME Group Inc. declared force majeure on August heating oil shipments into New York because of Hurricane Irene, extending by five days the date to make deliveries on the heating oil contract.

“The delivery facility that is scheduled to process these deliveries was impacted this past weekend by weather associated with Hurricane Irene,” CME said in a statement yesterday.

Home Prices

The S& P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropping 0.1 percent from the prior month after adjustments for seasonal changes, a sign that the deterioration in home prices is slowing.

“We’ve had a couple of decent economic data points,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “Today’s housing numbers are a little hopeful at least. I think that’s helping to support prices.”

U.S. consumer confidence tumbled to the lowest level since April 2009 and European confidence fell the most since December 2008 in reports for August today from the Conference Board and the European Commission in Brussels.

An Energy Department report tomorrow may show U.S. crude inventories climbed 500,000 barrels last week.

U.S. Stockpiles

U.S. crude-oil inventories may have climbed last week as refineries cut operating rates in preparation for Hurricane Irene and the government released barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The release of emergency stockpiles is almost complete. The department delivered 25.58 million barrels of oil from July 17 to Aug. 28, according to a statement on its website. The supplies are part of a 30.64 million-barrel sale to companies in cooperation with the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which sought to counter lost Libyan output from the conflict between rebels and the regime of Muammar Qaddafi.

The Energy Department report will show gasoline stockpiles fell 1 million barrels last week, according to the survey. Distillate-fuel inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably increased 800,000 barrels.

Earlier, oil prices fell as U.S. equities dropped for the first time in three days and the euro weakened against the U.S. dollar, curbing commodities’ appeal as an alternative investment.
 
 
krisluke
    31-Aug-2011 00:33  
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Banks' Greek writedowns were not big enough - IASB
* European institutions were not aggressive enough - IASB

  * IASB had BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances in mind - FT

  * ESMA says studying differences in Greek debt reporting (Adds German audit regulator, ESMA)

  By Lionel Laurent and Rosalba O'Brien

  PARIS/LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - European financial institutions should have booked bigger losses on Greek government bond holdings during the recent results season, the International Accounting Standards Board said.

  The IASB -- aiming to become the global benchmark for financial reporting -- said on Tuesday banks and insurers had been inconsistent in the way they wrote down the value of Greek sovereign debt in second-quarter earnings.

  The IASB, in a letter to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), said some companies had used internal models and not market prices to calculate the fair value of Greek bond holdings.

  While some companies claimed this practice was because the market for Greek debt had become illiquid, the IASB disagreed. " Although the level of trading activity in Greek government bonds has decreased, transactions are still taking place," chairman Hans Hoogervorst said.

  ESMA has begun assessing whether differences in the treatment of sovereign debt by banks were legitimate under IASB rules, spokeswoman Victoria Powell said.

  " We note that the responsibility for implementing accounting principles lies primarily with listed companies, including financial institutions, and their auditors," she said.

  The IASB letter, posted on its website on Tuesday after a leak to media, did not single out particular countries or banks.

  According to an unnamed source cited by the Financial Times, the move reflected specific concerns over the approach taken by France's biggest listed bank BNP Paribas and French insurer CNP Assurances , both of which used their own valuation models rather than market prices.

  A BNP spokeswoman said: " BNP took provisions against its Greece exposure in full agreement with its auditors and the relevant authorities, in accordance with the plan decided upon by the European Union on July 21."

  A CNP spokeswoman said its Greek debt provisions had been calculated in accordance with the EU plan.

  The STOXX Europe 600 bank index was up 1.1 percent at 1445 GMT.

  " The Greek debt issue has been treated very lightly," said Jacques Chahine, head of Luxembourg-based J. Chahine Capital, which manages 320 billion euros ($465 billion) assets. " And it is not just Greek debt. All of it needs to be written down, Spain, Italy."

  Citing recent comment by International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde that called for mandatory recapitalisation of European banks, Chahine said: " I agree with Christine Lagarde.

  " European banks need to be recapitalised ... It is clear their balance sheets are extremely fragile."

  The European Banking Authority on Tuesday denied this was the case.

 

  CONFIDENCE HIT

  European banks taking a 3 billion euro hit on Greek bond holdings earlier this month employed different approaches to valuing the debt. Writedowns disclosed in results varied from 21-50 percent.

  The low end corresponded to the so-called " haircut" on banking sector involvement in a planned second bailout of Greece now being finalised. A 50 percent loss represented the discount markets were expecting at the end of June.

  Klaus-Peter Feld, a board member of German auditor body IdW, told Reuters the French view there was no market price for Greek debt at the end of June was not valid and against IASB rules.

  Feld said he was comfortable with German write-downs, also in a 21-50 percent range, as they were consistent with the category the bonds were booked in, adding that in those cases where bonds were fully written down to market value write-backs could be seen as soon as the current quarter.

  ESMA was unable to impose a uniform Greek haircut across the EU and guidance it published at the end of July simply stressed the need for banks to tell investors clearly how they accounted for Greek debt values.

  The IASB, which has no power of enforcement in how banks book impairments, has been keen to show the United States, which will decide this year whether to adopt IASB standards, that its rules are consistent and properly represent markets.

  Auditors have said a patchwork approach will confuse investors and concerns over Greek haircut reporting will fuel calls for a pan-EU auditor regulator, either standalone or within ESMA.

  " The impact is more likely to be to further reduce investors' confidence in buying bank debt, rather than sovereign debt," Tamara Burnell, head of Financial Institutions/Sovereign Research at M& G told Reuters.

  " After all, nobody is paying much attention to the banks' arguments about why they cannot value Greek debt at market prices, and the 21 percent haircut ... is patently insufficient."

  Using the most aggressive markdown approach -- marking to market all Greek sovereign holdings -- would saddle 19 of the most exposed European banks with another 6.6 billion euros in potential writedowns, according to Citi analysts.

  BNP would take the biggest hit with 2.1 billion euros, followed by Belgian group Dexia with 1.9 billion and German lender Commerzbank with 959 million, Citi said.

  The European Commission said on Monday there was no need to recapitalise the banks over and above what had been agreed after a recent annual stress test. ($1 = 0.688 euro) (Additional reporting by Huw Jones and Sinead Cruise in London, and Alexander Huebner in Frankfurt Editing by Jon Loades-Carter and Dan Lalor)
 
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