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things every retail investor/trader should know

With current buoyant market n couples with coming Dec hol, staying sideline will keep

your mind in peace. Moreover, is STI market bottom yet? No feel.

Though analysts claimed that defensive counters like telecoms ie SingTel, Starhup;

ppty reit, ie Suntec reit n media ie SPH are better choices for investment at this moment.

AK opines that it is still not the right time to acc them.

But as what sifu suggested, monitor and pick up some blues or even the top 30 market cap coys;

their near lowest price(take ref for yr low, ie SingTel now, yr H 4.14 n L 1.94),

when u feel d market sentiment alrdy suitable to do shopping loh.

Nonetheless, keep in touch in SJ, time is right again when u hear most sifus

clapping their hands.

Above are AK view only. CA applies.

 

waverly      ( Date: 20-Nov-2008 10:32) Posted: Hi all,(ak, i punter, elfin, quah and all the seniors ) which do u consider the true blue liner blue chips ? i am considering sembcorp, sph, smrt as blue liners,do u all have any views ? thanks elfinchilde      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 17:48) Posted: month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners. don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch.

 

Hi all,(ak, i punter, elfin, quah and all the seniors )

which do u consider the true blue liner blue chips ?

i am considering sembcorp, sph, smrt as blue liners,do u all have any views ?

thanks

elfinchilde      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 17:48) Posted: month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners. don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch.

 

yuppers. btw, thanks to you and the rest on answering about ARs etc. (and yup, i see quarterly reports too).

FA is impt--because it controls newsflow, which is what affects sentiment. So when ppl wish to pick up winners for the next run, the first indications will be on FA. (tho i personally prefer technicals). this is for those who play longer term (>6tmhs/1 yr etc).

yah, in hols. can't wait for mid dec. will be going away for a month or longer. hehe.

cheers!

AK_Francis      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 23:29) Posted: Elf, tend to agreed with u. This is the norm, even with bull run. But for those who much wish to get some bargain, just stay alert loh, while other forumers are in hol. He he. elfinchilde      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 17:48) Posted: month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners. don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch.

 

And another thing worth mentioning is the mass faith in so-called 'fundamentals'....

Many have recently lost big fortunes  soley because they have great faith and conviction in their stocks' 'fundamentals'. They will argue fiercely and vehemently to the end that their stocks have got superb fundamentals which they have studied through and through and in depth.

The reality is actually that the market is the market...
Its behaviour has nothing to do with stock fundamentals.
It is a unique yet economic beast, regardless of how strong our faith in 'fundamentals' are (read 'have been' ) ...

The fortunes lost because of this belief is probably the most valuable lesson (ie. has great value) any stock market player can ask for but won't want to believe...

 

The stock market is not 'crashing' everyday...

Actually, it is in a big downtrend, since many many moths ago...

In fact, short-term crashes are the best opportunities to buy in, since it is caused by fear and panic.

But downtrends are a different story...

There was no panic. It is a gradual process of falling and falling. In an orderly (if indeed there's such a term for it) downtrend, there are many bottom-fishing optimistic bulls who are still not afraid of the stock market. They buy in, or average down, proudly thinking they have bought cheaply, only to be disappointed at a much later stage of the market's progress....
 

 

Elf, tend to agreed with u. This is the norm, even with bull run.

But for those who much wish to get some bargain, just stay alert loh,

while other forumers are in hol. He he.

elfinchilde      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 17:48) Posted: month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners. don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch.

 

Even if market keep crashing every day, stocks cannot be 0c unless company go "bust". Just like Golden Agri, drop 1c, 0.5c even though market keep crashing. For some penny stocks, you can actually start to "surround " it with minmal lots.

If you use margin and even if you are in borrowing of let's say just $10k and you expect market to recover in 2 years time, your gains after 2 years far outweigh the interest incurred for 2 years. Work it out with your calculator.

But when market keep crashing, some attendtion should be focussed on the former blue chips. They present a much better buy.  

 

month end fund redemptions, plus dec hols for the foreigners.

don't need to bother watching market alr. can close books for the year. except to consistently pick the blues at their lowest pts. o/w, don't bother playing; not worth the time taken to watch.

 

That serious, pse prewarn us if market is closed to Disaster.

AK at current  moment dun hv the feel leh?

But there may be time bomb which will trigger it.

When, sorry just can't tell or guess.

 

For those into TA, is it right to deduce that we are in the 4th wave of a fibo?

 

Actually, i am ok on AR (used to read it up for ST, SPH, etc.) but after reading your post, i begin to confuse a little too. There's also the question of right issue, share buy back scheme, new share issue to employee, stock option, director holdings deem/direct etc....etc..

Thus, i conclude that investment itself is no simple task(look like it is), its not just buy, hold & sell, this is like a whole university faculty for those keen to study/explore.

ojcurious      ( Date: 19-Nov-2008 08:01) Posted: Thanks everyone... I've only started to read AR...with zero finance/accounting background... it has been a huge challenge to understand all those numbers and statements (finanical notes)... When I first started, I nearly pulled all my hair out. But it has slowly gotten better now... though I'm still very much confused with terms like credit facilities (anyone can explain what's that really???)... and company not only can raise cash by issuing shares... there's still the normal shares and perference shares... then there's the converitible bonds, senior notes, etc... so it's rather confusing. Which bring me to the question of... how can I tell if the company is finanical ok, when its running on bank loans, had issued bonds, senior notes, etc to raise funds for its acquisition and daily operation... eg Noble and Olam... So how to tell the company is really healthy, and those loans, bonds/notes are just normal way of doing business for the company. Waverly - Yes.

 

ojcurious :

take a look at this for some ideas sgdividends.blogspot.com/

 

Thanks everyone... I've only started to read AR...with zero finance/accounting background... it has been a huge challenge to understand all those numbers and statements (finanical notes)... When I first started, I nearly pulled all my hair out. But it has slowly gotten better now... though I'm still very much confused with terms like credit facilities (anyone can explain what's that really???)... and company not only can raise cash by issuing shares... there's still the normal shares and perference shares... then there's the converitible bonds, senior notes, etc... so it's rather confusing. Which bring me to the question of... how can I tell if the company is finanical ok, when its running on bank loans, had issued bonds, senior notes, etc to raise funds for its acquisition and daily operation... eg Noble and Olam... So how to tell the company is really healthy, and those loans, bonds/notes are just normal way of doing business for the company. Waverly - Yes.

 

Yes, fully agreed. Periodic influencial matters count.

SupremeA      ( Date: 17-Nov-2008 10:04) Posted: when reading QR must be very aware of seasonality of biz. must know which period to compare it to AK_Francis      ( Date: 17-Nov-2008 09:48) Posted: AK opines that reading QR is much viable than AR, as AR is one yr one time whereas QR is 4 mths' transparency. In Apr, Jul, Oct  n Jan, including each coy FY, though not all coy in the same yr end. Likewise, if u hold a coy stock, dun wait for the AGM cum report, read their QR as well. AK view only loh.

 

Heard of businessman invest make million or billion, heard of remisiers make millions, heard of fund managers make millions, hardly hear any analysts making a million.

It is because conficit of interest they cannot buy what they are analysing so cannot make money. Then stocks go up or down based on their report do not matter cause they make no profit/loss from it. So i think their motive is to paint a very beautiful picture or very ugly picture so that many many people will have a interest to read it. (Ability to influence the share price will be more important to them, so that companies will want pay and keep them to generate interest in the counter)

 

when reading QR must be very aware of seasonality of biz. must know which period to compare it to

AK_Francis      ( Date: 17-Nov-2008 09:48) Posted: AK opines that reading QR is much viable than AR, as AR is one yr one time whereas QR is 4 mths' transparency. In Apr, Jul, Oct  n Jan, including each coy FY, though not all coy in the same yr end. Likewise, if u hold a coy stock, dun wait for the AGM cum report, read their QR as well. AK view only loh.

 

what is tabulated financial spreadsheet? do u mean those by analysts which shows financial statement over 5 years ?

ojcurious      ( Date: 17-Nov-2008 08:23) Posted: Thank you everyone for your reply. I guess the AR would be useful to gauge how the company is doing, plan to do, etc... whether is there any 'fake' accounting, well, sadly i don't have any crystal ball to foresee which company would be the unreliable one. I do find most analyst's report too optimistic, too bullish... it's like "buy", "buy", "buy"...so kinda difficult to trust...as well as many other reasons to take their reports with just a pinch of salt.... well.. we all can see what happened to Ferrochina.... I was looking at the tabulated finanical factsheet from Poems as it was readily available... and since it was all tabulated together (including last few years' results) - convenient mah. But was surprised to find the different figures when compared to the AR. So really surprised and puzzled. Eg GoldenAgri.... AR is negative cashflow... so no idea how come become positive in the poems finanical factsheet...same for thomson reuter I think... cos another forumer posted the similar factsheet...so I guess I should be careful about using these finanical factsheet as well... cheerios...

 

AK opines that reading QR is much viable than AR, as AR is one yr one time whereas QR is

4 mths' transparency. In Apr, Jul, Oct  n Jan, including each coy FY, though not all coy in the same yr end. Likewise, if u hold a coy stock, dun wait for the AGM cum report, read their QR as well.

AK view only loh.

 

Thank you everyone for your reply.

I guess the AR would be useful to gauge how the company is doing, plan to do, etc... whether is there any 'fake' accounting, well, sadly i don't have any crystal ball to foresee which company would be the unreliable one.

I do find most analyst's report too optimistic, too bullish... it's like "buy", "buy", "buy"...so kinda difficult to trust...as well as many other reasons to take their reports with just a pinch of salt.... well.. we all can see what happened to Ferrochina....

I was looking at the tabulated finanical factsheet from Poems as it was readily available... and since it was all tabulated together (including last few years' results) - convenient mah. But was surprised to find the different figures when compared to the AR. So really surprised and puzzled. Eg GoldenAgri.... AR is negative cashflow... so no idea how come become positive in the poems finanical factsheet...same for thomson reuter I think... cos another forumer posted the similar factsheet...so I guess I should be careful about using these finanical factsheet as well...

cheerios...

 

 

even ARs cannot be fully trusted. Lots of accounting shenanigans to move earnings around and to make numbers pretty. 

elfinchilde      ( Date: 15-Nov-2008 18:48) Posted: i only read ARs (annual reports) for FA. i don't trust analysts reports: ARs are what give you the full figures and theoretically, the full disclosure. whereas analysts' reports will give you their interpretation of it: so trusting an analyst's report is like 2nd degree interpretation from the fact. Have never seen the numbers from poems/etc, so am not sure? Sometimes it may be old numbers, is my guess. Alternatively, the analysts may have deducted off main sums etc to show 'actual holdings'. best example of trusting only ARs and not tabulated financials/analysts reports: Ferrochina. Their Aug AR actually gave the debt figure already--which astute investors should have realised would drive the company into negative equity immediately. hope this helps. ojcurious      ( Date: 14-Nov-2008 09:05) Posted: Hi Elfin, Is it possible to give me some insights? I'm trying to pick up some FA skill but is really confused by the different numbers I get from the tabulated finanicals (eg from Poems/shareinvestors) and the company's actual finanical reports. Eg, in the company's finanical report, cashflow is negative but in the tabulated finanicals from others, it's positive... so, is some of the figures "re-calculated" or something like that? I have no accounting background and such... so when I try to compare the figures... I get really confused with the different numbers posted... Any other experts out there care to advise me on this? Many thanks in advance....