Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 13-Nov-2008 18:05 |
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Today mark the turning point for stock?
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ya know, you guys are just scaring yourselves with all the talk of "what ifs" and "i'll only buy if..." and "i'll not buy if...". not good to have preconceptions when trading. cheers! |
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| 13-Nov-2008 18:03 |
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Will STI Go To 1,200 At All???
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STI 800.  this shows a complete non-understanding of not only technicals, but also fundamentals. STI at 800 means all the current stocks on the STI halve their value, and the premium of the blues trade at half NAV or less. You really think value investors won't snap up counters way before? Remember at 1997-1998, what were the value of the companies then? Compare it with now.
DJIA tanked 411 pts last night, but STI is down 28 pts. Follow the trend indeed. Ridiculous waste of time spreading fear. But then, that's what shortists with vested interests do. 
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| 12-Nov-2008 23:47 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yah. was wondering the same thing too....*gasp* my thread is spooked! heavens. 
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| 12-Nov-2008 23:45 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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X deals are married trades. they occur when someone sews up the quotes--ie, buy up or sell down consecutive quotes. eg, if you have 100 lots of sembcorp to sell, and the buy Q (ppl queuing to buy) at that point in time shows: 2.50 ---50 lots 2.49---30 lots 2.48--50 lots. in order to sell your 100 lots at one shot, you need to sell down the queue: 50 lots @ 2.5, 30 @ 2.49, 20 @ 2.48. So your sell px would be the average of all that---ie, 100 lots @ 2.493. That would be reflected in time of sales (or BUSD) as 'X' --100 @ 2.493 (SGX gives to 3 dec place, i think). The alternative is dealer-agreed. eg, two houses can agree to exchange the stock with each other at a certain price--usually offered to institutional players--and that deal is reflected as X as well. so that's why sometimes you'll see funny numbers and X's over the place. it's an indication of ppl sewing up quotes, as market lingo goes. Final end of day closing tends to be large lots, because that's exchange-matched. 1705 hrs, very liable to BB action as they are given those additional minutes. to know what the X deal is, you simply have to see the px before and after the X trade: if it's down, it means the X was a sell. if it's up, it means the X was a buy. hope this helps, cheers! |
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| 12-Nov-2008 14:49 |
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Will STI Go To 1,200 At All???
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ya know, instead of speculating and scaring yourselves ("the sky is falling! the sky is falling!"), why not just follow the trend instead. currently sti is on consolidation mode. range between 1,700 to 2,000, with 1,900 being the resistance thus far. If it does break down, you have resistances at 1,671, then 1,500 (actually it's 1478 or so), and 1,350, before 1,200 can be hit. Now, logically, when can such things happen? Only if major news occurs. ie, news on the scale of the sept 11 terrorist attacks. because the only thing that'll drive asia down is the US. and since 7,900 is a very strong DJIA support (equivalent STI 1,500), it means STI can fall to 1,200 only in the event of major US bad news, that drives the DJIA down to 4,000. IF 7900 can be broken. So while of course, one can't rule out that possibility, one should also note that it is of low probability. rather than worrying, save energy and focus on the charts. lots of money to be made if you look clearly. cheers. |
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| 12-Nov-2008 14:40 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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excerpt from my latest blog entry. will be of interest to any invested in the market currently: longterm players may like to note the general increase in volume. Dark pools are here. Which is also why even though the economic front looks bad, the market moves differently. And this is why technicals rule. tread cautiously. to know more about dark pools: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_pools_of_liquidity http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2007/07/06/Dark-Pools-Grow-Scrutiny-Does-Not |
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| 11-Nov-2008 23:44 |
Pacific Century
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HOPE TIS TIME IS REAL
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flippin' manipulated counter; just look at its charts. http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSSP42276120081104 the news is old. does not quite make sense though: if PCRD is taking PCCW private => PCRD will lose money, since they need to pay for the stake in PCCW. PCCW shareholders aren't willing to sell at even $5 per share, which means PCRD needs to offer a hefty premium to PCCW: ie, further decrease in PCRD's NAV. It's like NOL wanting to buy over the dutch firm. Generally for takeovers, the px of the taken company increases, the px of the taker decreases. Where there's speculation is because of the cash dividend that may be paid out. key word: MAY. ppl shdn't hold too high hopes though: Richard Li failed twice in this bid already. Also, if the deal does go through, once the cash div is paid out--if any--it means PCRD's px will fall by equivalent. all in all, nothing much to shout about. The charts give a red flag. this is a counter that averages about 200 lots per day on average, but will show sudden spikes to 1,000-2,500 lots suddenly. |
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| 11-Nov-2008 16:13 |
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Las Vegas Sands signals it may not survive downtur
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i quote my news source as the Straits Times. Pg A6 of Prime News, today's issue. 
tomasay. inventive, knightrider. 
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| 11-Nov-2008 16:05 |
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Las Vegas Sands signals it may not survive downtur
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agree with smartbear. it's the people's money they're playing with--OUR money. Same with GIC. notice how after they lost money in MS and all, they are just oh-so-quiet? whatever happened to accountability? How much of their so-called profit is in fact income from our CPF and all--steady revenue--rather than investment profits? A$400mil was invested in the ABC childcare centre in aussieland. Temasek bought at about $7.30. Before suspension, the shares were trading at 54c. how much of our money was lost? You go do the maths. As for ML investment: let's face it: temasek was only lucky that BoA bought them out. GIC wasn't so lucky with its stake in MS. And this is just it: why are we paying our scholars so much, that we "peg their salaries to the highest CEO pay package so as to be competitive"---yet CEOs can be fired, but scholars, never? Even CEOs have performance reviews. 1.9mil is the ministerial salary. up from previous years' 1.2mil. I say if we're paying them so much, then we have the full right as citizens to question if we're getting our money's worth. No more such thing as "we have made an honest mistake, let's close ranks and move on." If market practice is to be competitive, then i say, we pay each of them exactly what he/she is worth. Fairly, based on their actual work and results. And not a one-salary-fits-all. Long term investments should be by design, not default. |
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| 11-Nov-2008 15:38 |
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Forex Junction
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just some observations: UJ responds to the pivots, EU to the mid pivots. EU especially adores the fibs. play on 15min candles with observations of channels drawn on 4H, only in direction of channel. |
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| 10-Nov-2008 01:29 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/11/mindsets-and-mentality.html ahead of the trading week, a pause to consider the daises that grow between the pavement cracks. |
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| 10-Nov-2008 01:17 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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it is china that needs to be watched. europe/US can more or less see the direction. the unknown is china, and that will be the one that tips the equation. | ||
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| 10-Nov-2008 01:14 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hullo cashiertan, great to see you here. :) misread your meaning? i may have missed your post, i was responding to richtan/the rest asking abt CD/XD plays.  but yea, personally, i prefer stop loss to DCA.
and agree with the rest of what you said too. personally, i find forex better than stocks currently cos of the risk/reward ratio (tho forex is NOT for everyone pls, can be easy to lose money too if you don't know how to play it rightly). and yah, affected: cos the CBs have been intervening in the money markets. the japanese have a support for UJ at 92. completely concur with not taking positions at times too. no need to trade all the time anyway. 
one minor disagreeement though: TA rarely fails; usually if there's a failure, it tends to be more of human error than TA error. ya know, itchy fingers.
cheers! |
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| 10-Nov-2008 00:30 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yups, will pass on your messages to him. elfie misses him here too! 
he'll be back when he's back though, so meanwhile, let's let him enjoy his happy freedom.
wenwen, ARs = annual reports. for me, i read less of books, more of real life; learning as you go along, literally. TA can't be learnt easily; it's consistent practice. Theory is one thing, application is a whole different thing. Getting used to your stock(s), their patterns. Helps if you do not have fixed ideas in your head. Got to keep fluid above all. Algorithms/fixed set: What do you mean by "fixed set"? for experienced traders, the KISS rule applies---ie, Keep It Simple, Stupid. (not meaning you ah! :P )---but yea. as n00bs, most will wanna do all the new fangled stuff and have a whole lot of indicators, complicated tech tools, etc. The reality is that every single indicator derives from price volume action. So if you can master that, you do not need much else. If you're talking about books, then the only two i'd recommend: The Intelligent Investor, by Benjamin Graham. and Trading in the Zone, by Mark Douglas. I know singaporegal recommends the Martin Pring book, so you may like to check that out too. Generally tho, what i'd say is learn the principles but be more fluid in application. Can't expect to be able to convert book knowledge directly into stock market. esp in a closed market like ours. Also: the most impt thiing in the market is not your TA/FA skills, but yourself. if one doesn't have a good understanding of himself/herself, then, no matter how good your tech skills may be, it's a setup for loss in the long term. cheers! |
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| 10-Nov-2008 00:04 |
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Warrant STi1800PW090303
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to add in to CWQuah's posts: (believe you mean the 1800 bnpepw 090330 warrant?): not necessarily "should have made" even if the STI moves in your expected direction: time decay is one factor, although your warrant is a longer dated warrant, so less of that factor. the main thing to note is that warrant prices are set by the market makers. in this case, your market maker is BNP--ie, Banque Nationale de Paris /Paribas. If you go to sgwarrants and calculate prices of the warrant at certain strikes and dates, what you'll realise is that the warrant early on had factored in the drop already. ie, when you buy it at 40c, it had in effect priced in a dip to approx 1680 already. which is why even if the STI opens down, the warrant may not go up. You need to check always that the warrant px correlates with the STI (more precisely STI futures) current reading. Avoid buying warrants that have priced in market movements. Generally, for newbies, i'd say to avoid warrants altogether. they are complicated instruments which are suitable only for those with good technical skills and/or large capital. as for your current warrant, elfie can't tell you what to do, but i can tell you though, that barring any major news shakeup, the bias is for the STI to be on either consolidation or uptrend mode for this coming week. so do take care. 
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| 08-Nov-2008 00:34 |
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one tier tax per share what is mean ?
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div is paid directly to your account (bank or margin acct if you're on it). You get the div on the 'date payable', assuming you held the stock from CD to XD status. If you sell your stock CD, you do not get dividends; similarly if you buy XD, you don't get div for that period too. our ever-efficient govt deducts it straightaway, so whatever is credited into your acct is sub 18% already. So do NOT declare it on your income tax, or you pay double. (-_-")...Capital gains are not taxable here. Companies usually don't pay the 18% for you. (they can do so due to the loophole that they are allowed to declare tax exempt divvies if they declared dividends from PAT--ie, profit after tax. So the easy way out for companies is to declare the dividend before tax, so that you fork out the 18%.)
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| 07-Nov-2008 00:33 |
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Today mark the turning point for stock?
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elite/member/senior etc are just titles given by the number of posts we've posted. believe you can see if you click on post count. don't pay too much attention to them really. :) the US data you quoted was the ADP non farm. less that the previous was only -26k, what is more important is that the expectation was for losses of 100k, but turned out to be 157k instead. also that the factory orders, non manufacturing PMI and importantly, business sentiment, all took a greater dive than expected. the other pt of note is Euro data. Germany factory orders down a massive 8%, cf to predictions of abt 2%. It confirms recession in the euro zone, since germany and france are the key countries to watch for. |
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| 06-Nov-2008 23:08 |
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one tier tax per share what is mean ?
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edit: forgot to add: in the past it was different: some dividends could be taxed more or less, depending on where it was placed in the company's profits. there was 1st tier, 2nd tier, etc. you also had franked dividends etc. those don't matter anymore though; just take off 18% off whatever's quoted as long as you see 'one tier tax'. special dividends tend to be tax exempt tho. so sometimes you'll see two dividend statements at one time--something like: special dividend SGD 0.03 tax exempt; dividend SGD 0.035 one tier tax. => you take the 1st one whole, and take 18% off the 2nd, add the two together and presto, your dividend yield. 
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| 06-Nov-2008 23:04 |
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one tier tax per share what is mean ?
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hullo, a goat! 
lol. seriously: one tier tax: s'pore from 2002 adopted the one tier tax system for businesses. you can read more in detail from the MOF here if you wish. http://www.mof.gov.sg/taxation/one-tier.html but where it concerns investors: if a company pays out dividends from PAT, it means it's tax exempt. the standard notation is "exempt one tier tax." the alternative is "one tier tax"--ie, take 18% off whatever was declared as dividend. So eg: if the dividend announcement is "SGD 0.03 one tier tax' => you get $30 - 18% = S$24.60 per lot. "SGD 0.03 exempt tax" or "SGX 0.03 exempt one tier tax" => S$30 per lot. of course, if you scroll through the sgx listings, you'll realise most companies prefer to let the investor pay the tax, rather than pay it for you.
hope this helps, cheers! |
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| 06-Nov-2008 22:35 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hi stupidfool, shplayer has retired and is currently enjoying his free days. i keep in touch with him occasionally; he still remains the gold standard in FA for me.
richtan, too little tech info on the counter; insufficient to proceed on. surprisingly low vol for a china play tho. FA-wise, you need to read its prospectus and ask yourself if that is a business model you are really convinced by; if theirs is a product that can stand out from the others in the same field. the tide right now is against china; i do believe that will be the next implosion. china does not need to fail; it just needs to grow at 8% the next year. if you have friends working there/in business there, you'll know that the implosion is happening already; that already businessmen there are cutting back on expenditure and socialising etc. |
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