ShareJunction - Member Posts

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赌城失业率全美最高 (2011-09-03)

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NVPC调查收入较低者捐钱更慷慨
月薪较低的本地居民竟比高薪者更加慷慨捐款做慈善。

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芬兰教育不相信考试
芬兰法律规定，学生在六年级之前，都不能以等级或分数来评断他们。

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新加坡数学奥林匹克赛国大数理中学学生称王
国大数理中学的林捷独占鳌头，在新加坡数学奥林匹克比赛中，击败了 1万多名参赛学生，横扫高中组和公开组冠军。

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如果说 5月全国大选的 60.1%历史新低支持率，敲响了执政的人民行动党的警钟，那新任总统陈庆炎博士在刚过的总统选举所取得的 仅 35.2%支持票，恐怕更印证了警钟的响起并不是一场虚惊。

　　纵使政府没有明说，但明眼人都知道身为前副总理的陈庆炎就是政府属意的总统人选。其他三名候选人陈清木医生、陈如斯和陈钦亮尽管在抗争上尖锐程度有别，但相对于陈庆炎，自然被视为与人民行动党较疏离。所以，在某种程度上，这场竞选一开始，就被坊间看成是一对三，执政党支持度与反对势力的较劲。

　　虽然陈庆炎最后还是以微差胜出，但最终的成绩却凸显出人们不能忽视的一个关键，那就是近三分之二选民投选了非执政党的第一人选。这无疑显示出了人民希望有一个较独立的总统来监督政府。假设陈如斯和陈钦亮这次都没有参选，只以 7269张选票落败的陈清木很可能会收获大部分投给陈如斯和陈钦亮的选票，结局也就此完全不一样。

　　当然，这毕竟只是假设，所可能造就的结果也只能任各方去想象。不过，从 60.1%到 35.2%，人民支持率的 “缩水 ”，除了基于选政府和选总统性质的不同以及对切身影响程度有别外，从另一角度来看，更实实在在地反映出民间对执政党的有所保留；当除去了个人选区的利益考量后，这种反抗情绪的泄洪而出不能不叫执政党认真深思和反思。

　　重返校园后，那天上了一堂课是关于政府与人民的关系，教授就提到政府与人民在某种程度上有如一种委托人（ principal）与代理人（ agent）的关系；人民如同委托人，通过投票选出最能代表他们的代理人，为他们争取最大的利益。不过，这样的关系是建筑在绝对信任的基础上，而一旦委托人失去这份信任，就会导致代理人无法称职地有效运作，最终引发委托人通过选举更换代理人。

　　由此来看，如今的新加坡不正是处于这个 委托人对代理人失去信任的堪忧处境？

过去来自人民的强而有力委托是深信上下一心，政府所做的一切都是在为人民改善生活，也因为拥有这份坚定的信任让政府无后顾之忧地全力发展新加坡，造就了狮城的奇迹。但 46年后的今天，当住屋变得越来越昂贵、外国人和新移民变得越来越多、地铁巴士变得越来越拥挤，竞争变得越来越激烈，许多 疑问 也无可避免地应运而生：

政府所推行的政策是否是在 造福我们 ？

政府相信的理念是否还是我们想要的？

政府与我们是否还在同样的道路上？

　　当这种不确定变得越来越多，猜疑成脱缰野马时，信任不免随之动摇。眼下执政党的最大挑战追根究底就是如何重建人民的信任。尤其当新加坡已经进步到人民的衣食住行基本需要已大致上获得满足，大家开始追求美国心理学家马斯洛（ Maslow）需求层次理论中更高层次、也更分化的精神和心灵富足；要迎合各异的需求，让人民相信这个政府是可以托付的，恐怕是执政党前所未见的难题。

在保持经济增长的当儿，如何确保全国人民共享硕果，无人落后？

在追求高效率之际，如何确保各方的意见和看法都获得征询？

在寻找最有效的做法时，如何也确保它对所有人都公平？

在寻求公平的同时，又如何确保有潜力的人获得最好的发展？

为这些棘手难题寻找两全其美的答案，极需要政府认真及迅速地应对。然而，当失去的信任就如碎了的花瓶，怎么修补都始终有裂痕时，人民 昔日 对执政党的 不言而信 ，执政党是否还挽救得回？

　　面对充斥着不信任的新社会格局，执政党的前路无疑荆棘满途，最怕是人民已拒绝信任一个单色的领导体制。而这将是执政党的信任打桩工程，最先需要克服的障碍。

（作者是本报记者，目前在李光耀公共政策学院修读硕士学位）

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Development charges go up

Hike is highest in the industrial sector

by Linette Lim

04:46 AM Sep 01, 2011

SINGAPORE - The generally healthy property market over the past six months and external developments have led to higher than expected revisions to the rate for development charges (DC).

Yesterday, the Ministry of National Development (MND) - as part of its half-yearly review - released the latest DC rates, with charges for non-landed residential property increased by an average of 12.1 per cent while commercial property charges increased 21.7 per cent on average.

The industrial sector saw the highest revision with rates going up by an average of 30.9 per cent.

The increases in the rate of DC - the tax payable by the developer when a property site is developed into a more valuable project - will take effect from today.

Jones Lang LaSalle head of research (South East Asia) Chua Yang Liang said: " This latest round of DC revision has been higher than market expectations. Although there is sufficient empirical evidence to support the increase, the inflationary pressure that is building up in certain sectors of the property market could be another reason."

He added: " The outflow of funds from the United States into Asia and localised policy shifts that drove investors into other non-residential sectors, are probably enough reasons to warrant the Chief Valuer to pursue a more aggressive or tighter policy stance on DC revision, as a tool to contain the pressure."

Colliers International director (research & advisory) Chia Siew Chuin noted that it was unsurprising that sectors with the higher increase in DC rates were in the fringe and outlying locations.

She added that this was " likely to have been the result of the recent sale" of a non-landed site at Bendemeer Road/Whampoa East under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.

The site was sold at S$774 per sq ft per plot ratio - " a 141.1-per-cent premium above the imputed land cost for the sector" , Ms Chia pointed out.

For the commercial use group, the average increase is 21.7 per cent, almost 10 percentage points above the average recorded in the previous revision in March.

The largest spike is in the Paya Lebar Way/Eunos/Sims Ave area at 31.7 per cent.

The largest increase in the non-landed category was 39 per cent for the Serangoon Road, Whampoa, Bendemeer Road areas.

Analysts noted that higher development charges may put a damper on enbloc transactions as it will raise costs for developers.

International Property Advisor chief executive officer Ku Swee Yong said that the segment of people " most affected right now" would be the owners of apartments and condos that are poised for collective sale " as developers bidding for those sites will have to consider the increase in DC" .

Industrial property DC rates in the Tuas/Pioneer Road/Jurong/Sungei Kadut/Mandai Estate/Woodlands area saw an increase of 55 per cent.

Cushman & Wakefield Singapore vice-chairman Donald Han noted that the industrial market saw rampant land sales activity in the last six months.

Said Mr Han: " At the back of vibrant developers' strata title industrial sales - which saw capital values increasing by 22 per cent for the whole of last year and 16 per cent for first seven months of this year - developers have been busy chasing for development sites, which attributed to the rise in DC rates."

Still, Mr Han said the increase in DC rates has little or no impact on industrial developments on GLS sites.

" GLS will continue to be of interest to developers as industrial projects are immune to shorter leasehold tenure of 30 to 60 years," he added.

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Development charges go up

Hike is highest in the industrial sector

by Linette Lim

04:46 AM Sep 01, 2011

SINGAPORE - The generally healthy property market over the past six months and external developments have led to higher than expected revisions to the rate for development charges (DC).

Yesterday, the Ministry of National Development (MND) - as part of its half-yearly review - released the latest DC rates, with charges for non-landed residential property increased by an average of 12.1 per cent while commercial property charges increased 21.7 per cent on average.

The industrial sector saw the highest revision with rates going up by an average of 30.9 per cent.

The increases in the rate of DC - the tax payable by the developer when a property site is developed into a more valuable project - will take effect from today.

Jones Lang LaSalle head of research (South East Asia) Chua Yang Liang said: " This latest round of DC revision has been higher than market expectations. Although there is sufficient empirical evidence to support the increase, the inflationary pressure that is building up in certain sectors of the property market could be another reason."

He added: " The outflow of funds from the United States into Asia and localised policy shifts that drove investors into other non-residential sectors, are probably enough reasons to warrant the Chief Valuer to pursue a more aggressive or tighter policy stance on DC revision, as a tool to contain the pressure."

Colliers International director (research & advisory) Chia Siew Chuin noted that it was unsurprising that sectors with the higher increase in DC rates were in the fringe and outlying locations.

She added that this was " likely to have been the result of the recent sale" of a non-landed site at Bendemeer Road/Whampoa East under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme.

The site was sold at S$774 per sq ft per plot ratio - " a 141.1-per-cent premium above the imputed land cost for the sector" , Ms Chia pointed out.

For the commercial use group, the average increase is 21.7 per cent, almost 10 percentage points above the average recorded in the previous revision in March.

The largest spike is in the Paya Lebar Way/Eunos/Sims Ave area at 31.7 per cent.

The largest increase in the non-landed category was 39 per cent for the Serangoon Road, Whampoa, Bendemeer Road areas.

Analysts noted that higher development charges may put a damper on enbloc transactions as it will raise costs for developers.

International Property Advisor chief executive officer Ku Swee Yong said that the segment of people " most affected right now" would be the owners of apartments and condos that are poised for collective sale " as developers bidding for those sites will have to consider the increase in DC" .

Industrial property DC rates in the Tuas/Pioneer Road/Jurong/Sungei Kadut/Mandai Estate/Woodlands area saw an increase of 55 per cent.

Cushman & Wakefield Singapore vice-chairman Donald Han noted that the industrial market saw rampant land sales activity in the last six months.

Said Mr Han: " At the back of vibrant developers' strata title industrial sales - which saw capital values increasing by 22 per cent for the whole of last year and 16 per cent for first seven months of this year - developers have been busy chasing for development sites, which attributed to the rise in DC rates."

Still, Mr Han said the increase in DC rates has little or no impact on industrial developments on GLS sites.

" GLS will continue to be of interest to developers as industrial projects are immune to shorter leasehold tenure of 30 to 60 years," he added.

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Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings

The Straits Times
Sep 4, 2011
small change

Investors who buy these four stocks could end up kissing their money goodbye

By Andy Mukherjee

If you have cash stuffed in your mattress or bank account, and if you are itching to put it to work in the markets, let me try to talk you out of it.

For choppy markets to get better, sentiment must first hit rock bottom.

Like it did in the first quarter of 2009.

Conditions are different now.

Analysts are still overly bullish.

They are beginning to turn nervous, but are far from throwing in the towel.

In this column, I'll discuss four stocks as examples. These stocks have fallen between 12 and 16 per cent in the past month, underperforming the Straits Times Index, but analysts are overwhelmingly sanguine about their prospects.

What if the analysts' optimism is misplaced?

A disclaimer before we proceed: I have selected the stocks based on some rules that I'll shortly explain.

I don't have any position in them, nor do I intend to take any.

If these stocks outperform the index over the next six months, well, I'll have egg on my face.

And if I'm proved right in my scepticism, I'll start holding investment seminars (just kidding).

Let's move on.

What the four stocks have in common is this:

Analysts are in love with them.

Their ardour is beginning to cool, but it'll be a while before the consensus opinion on these stocks turns negative. At that point, they'll become interesting again.

Measuring love is simple.

I required consensus estimates for the target price - the analyst community's opinion of a stock's fair value - to be at least 25 per cent higher than the current price.

But how do we know whether analysts are beginning to feel nervous about these companies that they are so enamoured of?

With that in mind, I pared down the list to retain only those stocks on which at least twice as many analysts have cut their full-year earnings forecasts in the past month as have increased them.

I looked at only those Singapore-listed stocks for which 'buy' ratings by analysts, compiled by Bloomberg, comprised at least 60 per cent of all recommendations in the past year.

Further, to exclude illiquid stocks that aren't widely covered by analysts, I whittled down the list to only those that have secured at least 10 'buy' ratings from analysts in the past year.

At the end of this exercise, I was left with four names.

Noble Group

Analysts are still wildly bullish about Noble, which supplies energy, food and mining products where these are needed. The consensus estimate for the stock suggests a 35 per cent upside.

But some cracks in confidence are beginning to emerge. Ms Zuo Li at IIFL Capital cut her earnings growth forecast for Noble by 12 to 20 per cent for the current year and the next two.

Keep an eye on the European money markets. As the 2008 crisis clearly showed, when money markets dry up, trade - and traders - get hit.

Noble shares fell more than 80 per cent between June and October 2008.

Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri, which produces and refines palm oil, is another analysts' darling languishing in the dumps.

With the hiving off of Salim Ivomas Pratama, which was separately listed in May, the company is sitting on 6.1 trillion Indonesian rupiah (S$860 million) in cash, with little clarity from management on future expansion. Meanwhile, the profit accruing to Indofood shareholders grew less than expected in the June quarter, according to a Nomura report.

Still, analysts are hopeful.

The consensus estimate for the stock's target price is about 33 per cent higher than the current price.

Genting Singapore

'Spurned'.

That's how Ms Magdalene Choong at PhillipCapital titled her analysis of the casino operator's 'exceptionally weak' second-quarter earnings.

Chip volumes declined 13 per cent from the previous three months' as high rollers took a breather to nurse the previous quarter's losses. Or they may have gone to Marina Bay Sands to gamble the night away.

According to Ms Choong, who downgraded the stock to 'hold' last month, the outlook for the stock does not look enticing.

'In view of the downwards revision on GDP as well as rising risks from Western economies, we further reduce Genting's valuation,' she wrote.

Overall, though, the analyst community is still gung-ho on Genting.

After as many as 12 downgrades in the past month on the company's full-year earnings potential, the consensus target price is still 28 per cent higher than the market price.

The longer the analyst community stays on the wrong side of the market, the more quickly it can surrender.

DBS

With the United States Federal Reserve promising to keep overnight interest rates at about zero until mid-2013, local-currency interbank rates in Singapore, to which the domestic banks' lending rates are pegged, have collapsed. One key rate - the swap offer rate - has even turned negative.

'This development has dashed whatever hope there was in the market earlier about net interest margin bottoming out and recovering next year,' Kim Eng Securities analyst James Koh wrote in a recent research note, cutting his rating on all three Singapore banks to 'sell'.

The consensus in the analyst community, however, is that DBS Group's fair value is 28 per cent higher than what the stock currently sells for.

If the Singapore economy slips into a technical recession this quarter and loan growth slows markedly, then the lingering optimism on DBS could dissipate. That could be risky for investors.

For now, the cash in your mattress is quite safe where it is.

If you really want to do something with your money, consider stocks with high dividend yields.

andym@sph.com.sg

My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/

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ANALYSTS' DARLINGS

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Don't get seduced by analysts' darlings

The Straits Times
Sep 4, 2011
small change

Investors who buy these four stocks could end up kissing their money goodbye

By Andy Mukherjee

If you have cash stuffed in your mattress or bank account, and if you are itching to put it to work in the markets, let me try to talk you out of it.

For choppy markets to get better, sentiment must first hit rock bottom.

Like it did in the first quarter of 2009.

Conditions are different now.

Analysts are still overly bullish.

They are beginning to turn nervous, but are far from throwing in the towel.

In this column, I'll discuss four stocks as examples. These stocks have fallen between 12 and 16 per cent in the past month, underperforming the Straits Times Index, but analysts are overwhelmingly sanguine about their prospects.

What if the analysts' optimism is misplaced?

A disclaimer before we proceed: I have selected the stocks based on some rules that I'll shortly explain.

I don't have any position in them, nor do I intend to take any.

If these stocks outperform the index over the next six months, well, I'll have egg on my face.

And if I'm proved right in my scepticism, I'll start holding investment seminars (just kidding).

Let's move on.

What the four stocks have in common is this:

Analysts are in love with them.

Their ardour is beginning to cool, but it'll be a while before the consensus opinion on these stocks turns negative. At that point, they'll become interesting again.

Measuring love is simple.

I required consensus estimates for the target price - the analyst community's opinion of a stock's fair value - to be at least 25 per cent higher than the current price.

But how do we know whether analysts are beginning to feel nervous about these companies that they are so enamoured of?

With that in mind, I pared down the list to retain only those stocks on which at least twice as many analysts have cut their full-year earnings forecasts in the past month as have increased them.

I looked at only those Singapore-listed stocks for which 'buy' ratings by analysts, compiled by Bloomberg, comprised at least 60 per cent of all recommendations in the past year.

Further, to exclude illiquid stocks that aren't widely covered by analysts, I whittled down the list to only those that have secured at least 10 'buy' ratings from analysts in the past year.

At the end of this exercise, I was left with four names.

Noble Group

Analysts are still wildly bullish about Noble, which supplies energy, food and mining products where these are needed. The consensus estimate for the stock suggests a 35 per cent upside.

But some cracks in confidence are beginning to emerge. Ms Zuo Li at IIFL Capital cut her earnings growth forecast for Noble by 12 to 20 per cent for the current year and the next two.

Keep an eye on the European money markets. As the 2008 crisis clearly showed, when money markets dry up, trade - and traders - get hit.

Noble shares fell more than 80 per cent between June and October 2008.

Indofood Agri Resources

Indofood Agri, which produces and refines palm oil, is another analysts' darling languishing in the dumps.

With the hiving off of Salim Ivomas Pratama, which was separately listed in May, the company is sitting on 6.1 trillion Indonesian rupiah (S$860 million) in cash, with little clarity from management on future expansion. Meanwhile, the profit accruing to Indofood shareholders grew less than expected in the June quarter, according to a Nomura report.

Still, analysts are hopeful.

The consensus estimate for the stock's target price is about 33 per cent higher than the current price.

Genting Singapore

'Spurned'.

That's how Ms Magdalene Choong at PhillipCapital titled her analysis of the casino operator's 'exceptionally weak' second-quarter earnings.

Chip volumes declined 13 per cent from the previous three months' as high rollers took a breather to nurse the previous quarter's losses. Or they may have gone to Marina Bay Sands to gamble the night away.

According to Ms Choong, who downgraded the stock to 'hold' last month, the outlook for the stock does not look enticing.

'In view of the downwards revision on GDP as well as rising risks from Western economies, we further reduce Genting's valuation,' she wrote.

Overall, though, the analyst community is still gung-ho on Genting.

After as many as 12 downgrades in the past month on the company's full-year earnings potential, the consensus target price is still 28 per cent higher than the market price.

The longer the analyst community stays on the wrong side of the market, the more quickly it can surrender.

DBS

With the United States Federal Reserve promising to keep overnight interest rates at about zero until mid-2013, local-currency interbank rates in Singapore, to which the domestic banks' lending rates are pegged, have collapsed. One key rate - the swap offer rate - has even turned negative.

'This development has dashed whatever hope there was in the market earlier about net interest margin bottoming out and recovering next year,' Kim Eng Securities analyst James Koh wrote in a recent research note, cutting his rating on all three Singapore banks to 'sell'.

The consensus in the analyst community, however, is that DBS Group's fair value is 28 per cent higher than what the stock currently sells for.

If the Singapore economy slips into a technical recession this quarter and loan growth slows markedly, then the lingering optimism on DBS could dissipate. That could be risky for investors.

For now, the cash in your mattress is quite safe where it is.

If you really want to do something with your money, consider stocks with high dividend yields.

andym@sph.com.sg

My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/

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02nd September 2011

Top Story: Earnings Review – Stumbling growth and global risk aversion

Strategy Update

¨ 2Q results continued to surprise on the downside despite our recent downward revision in earnings to take into account a slower-than-expected global economic recovery. Of the 115 companies that we cover, 62 of the results (53.1% of the total) were within our expectations, 38 below projections (33.0% of the total) and 15 above forecasts (13.1% of the total).

Sector Call

Banks: 2QCY11 report card – Another quarter of record profits but growth slowing Neutral

Sector Update

¨ Generally, there were no major earnings surprises in the recent 2QCY11 reporting season.

Telecom: Mega school internet project Overweight

Sector Update

¨ Six companies (Maxis, Celcom, YTL Comms, Jaring, Multimedia Synergy Corp and a joint TM-Time dotCom bid) have been reportedly shortlisted for the RM1.5bn 5-year contract to provide Internet access and a virtual learning module (VLM) platform for the 9,924 schools in the country.

For more details, please login to your RHBInvest Account now…..

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Watch Out for U.S. Payrolls Tonight

The monthly change in U.S. non-farm payrolls report (NFP) is a closely watched indicator in determining the progress of the job recovery. According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts are expecting a gain of around 68,000 in August employment, compared to a 117,000 gain in July.

U.S. markets reacted negatively last night as analysts downgraded forecasts for tonight’s number. However, of late, the markets have at times been reacting in the opposite direction to economic surprises. A negative surprise on macro data could potentially spark a rally in equities as investors speculate that the Fed may “work harder” in boosting the economy.

ADP employment and jobless claims
So far, the job figures were generally in line with expectations. On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment report showed that private sector added 91,000 jobs in August. Yesterday, reports showed that weekly initial jobless claims had a slight decrease from the previous week, but remain above the 400,000 mark.

Obama and his BIG plan
U.S. President, Mr. Obama, promised to unveil his job creation proposal next Thursday, 8th September. While many debated on the effectiveness of his previous plans, next week's proposal will be highly scrutinised as Obama seeks for re-election in 2012.

HSI on winning streak
The Hang Seng Index rose for the 4th day yesterday, gaining 5.1% over the period. Yesterday's gain was partly helped by a report showing that China's official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded slightly to 50.9 in August.

Code	Name	Type	Expiry	Exercise Price
OV3W	HSI20800MBeCW110929@	Call	29-Sep-11	20800
OV0W	HSI20600MBePW110929@	Put	29-Sep-11	20600
O1YW	HSI19600MBeCW111028@	Call	28-Oct-11	19600
O2CW	HSI19400MBePW111028@	Put	28-Oct-11	19400

** For a full list of Macquarie warrants over HSI, you may wish to do a search at http://www.warrants.com.sg/en/warrants/search_e.cgi

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F X

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CIMB Promotion

Contracts For Difference
CIMB CFD offers you 3 great offers not to be missed.

From now till 31st October 2011, all new CFD clients will enjoy lower online commission rate of 0.20% plus a 10% rebate on gross commission.

Check out CFD website https://sgcfd.cimb.com or contact your Trading Representative for more information on this promotion. Terms and conditions apply click here to find out more.

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Technically:

Genting Singapore (GENS SP S$1.65 SELL) -

Downside risk higher than potential reward.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ SP S$1.12 SELL) - Candle with a long upper shadow.

Gallant Venture (GALV SP S$0.315 SELL) - MACD and RSI hit its new 1.5 year low recently.

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7. Singapore
> GDP per capita: $56,521.731

Singapore is the sole Southeast Asian nation with a solid triple-A rating.

Despite a reliance on foreign trade exports, investors consider Singapore the safest place today for Asia. Its population is tiny at 4.74 million and its revised GDP is $291.9 billion. Singapore did not avoid the recession, but it also proved to bounce back the most.

Public debt is artificially high at 102.4% of GDP but that is a government tie of the Central Provident Fund.

Imagine this for austerity measures:

Singapore has actually not borrowed to finance any government deficits since the 1980s.

S& P and Moody’s have no issues with the AAA rating and outlook, nor should investors.

The only obvious risks are military action, climate change, or an unknown geological event.

Barring those, Singapore has as solid of a triple-A status as they come.

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At Risk of Losing AAA Rating:

1. Austria
> GDP per capita: $39,634.128

We were surprised to see Austria has a triple-A rating with a stable outlook.

Its business ties to the lands of the PIIGS and to Eastern Europe hurt its balance sheet.

The country has a low population above 8.2 million and its 2010 GDP was roughly $332 billion per adjusted figures.

The 2010 public debt ratio was 70.4% of GDP. Our take is that the ties to Germany may give it perhaps an artificial triple-A rating. The EIU said, even before the latest waves of weakening in trading partner nations, that Austria needs to continue restructuring, emphasizing knowledge-based sectors, move to greater labor flexibility, and grow labor participation to offset unemployment and aging trends and low fertility rates. Our own internal risk assessment is more critical than S& P and Moody’s and we just do no count Austria as a true triple-A in the European austerity path and with the the PIIGS nations facing so many woes, whether the European Union bails them out or not.

2. Finland
> GDP per capita: $34,585.453

Finland is a worrisome triple-A nation. It has a large landmass and a small population of about 5.25 million. It has a GDP of roughly $186 billion, a higher unemployment rate today, and a deep reliance on trade. Its precious technology sector is suffering with Nokia’s decline and the CIA Factbook noted that general government finances will remain in deficit during the next few years. Being rich in timber today does not weigh as much as being reliant entirely on imports of energy, raw materials, and many components for manufacturing. While 2010 debt to GDP was only 45.4%, it is easy to argue that this could skyrocket higher in hard times. Aging population trends, taxation risks, and that pesky Nokia problem all act in unison to keep us from considering Finland as a true triple-A nation.

3. France
> GDP per capita: $34,077.040

France is one of the world’s strongest nations and is the runner-up for Big Brother status in the euro. The population is now about 65.3 million and GDP was ranked as No.10 in the world at $2.145 trillion. France actually withstood the recession better than many other nations. But the CIA data showed that budget deficit rose from 3.4% of GDP in 2008 to 7.8% of GDP in 2010 with its public debt going from 68% of GDP to 84% over the same period. With France being a key guarantor in the EU and the woes of the PIIGS nations, France could easily find itself at-risk of losing its the triple-A rating. Its banks also own substantial U.S. debt. We still view the debt rating risks more harshly than the ratings agencies on a longer-term basis. Pension reform, tax reform, demographics, immigration, a high degree of exposure to bailouts, all combine with a very stubborn labor force to put France potentially under the same risk that the U.S. faces in the years ahead.

4. United Kingdom
> GDP per capita: $34,919.511

The United Kingdom has kept its triple-A rating since ratings were initiated. The third largest economy in Europe after Germany and France has a population of about 62.7 million and its revised GDP figure was $2.17 billion. England is in a funk even if the ratings are not under immediate fire. The Brits face property woes and S& P did actually give the nation a ‘negative outlook’ before reverting back to ‘stable’ in 2010. That puts our top allies at risk all over again if collateral damage comes from the U.S. Our banking systems have many overlaps. One risk is that while it has coal, natural gas, and oil resources, reserves are declining and it is now a net importer of energy.

The U.K.’s revised public debt to GDP was left at 76.5%. The financial meltdown and property crash was brutal in England, perhaps even more so than in the U.S. Taxation issues are ongoing, along with risks of bank nationalization, unavoidable austerity measures, rising debt, deficit spending, and urban immigration remain — all present large challenges in the intermediate-term and in the long-term. What has helped to save England is that it stayed out of the euro, so it can print pound sterling if needed. Still, the U.K. has nearly all of the same risks as the U.S. has for its triple-A status, which puts it at real risk.

5. United States
> GDP per capita: $47,283.633

The United States has so far managed to technically escape the triple-A downgrade hangman. For now. This is the trickiest of all triple-A rating analysis, and it is relatively easy to argue that the triple-A rating here is actually a manipulated rating. For a ratings agency to downgrade the U.S., some will claim that there is no such thing as a triple-A rating. Both political parties have deep responsibility in having helped to torpedo the financial standing of the nation. Fitch and Moody’s have both keyed in negatively about the long-term triple-A prospects, and S& P wants even more budget cuts ahead.

The world’s biggest economy has a population of 313 million and revised GDP figure of $14.66 trillion. Moody’s warned back in December 2010 that the nation faced credit negative forces. The warnings have only grown. Public debt was not as high in 2010 at only 58.9% of GDP per the CIA data. But that was then. High deficits, declining tax revenues, and current entitlement demands will drive this far higher. It was immediately after the debt ceiling was lifted that Fitch opined that this only one step that the process has not ended and that the rising debt profile to over 100% of GDP (after 2012) is a “not consistent with the United States retaining its AAA sovereign rating.”

The pains of healthcare and social security reform the argument that the recession never really ended and is coming back a worsening employment situation unrealistic entitlement expectations of the public continued property value declines still high deficit spending military spending obligations a crumbing infrastructure a refusal to increase tax revenues of any form whatsoever a historically short debt-maturity schedule with artificially low rates and a few dozen more issues all jeopardize the U.S.’s highly cherished triple-A ratings status. The U.S. is under review by ratings agencies, and the economy is literally softening under our feet.

This is said with sadness, but the ratings agencies have already begun the U.S. downgrade process. The rest of the process is only up to whether or not Washington and the public can reach down and accept the notion that less is more in the end. The coming changes required will mean that Warren Buffett’s predictions of a greater future have no merit.

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After you have reviewed the nations with triple-A ratings, the reality is much more sobering than it was even six months ago. The United States has been a large part of the ratings woes, but Europe shares in much of the blame. The post-austerity world is going to create new winners as well as some losers. The global business climate is challenging, at best.

This article was written by a concerned American who tried to leave political views at the door. The ratings agencies did no favors before the recession took hold and they are doing no favors today. Still, a look in the mirror and action by all economic participants from the very bottom to the highest level is still needed. A triple-A rating just does not have the same meaning that it used to. If you think that S& P and Moody’s won’t downgrade the U.S. and other nations, think again. Egan Jones has already formally downgraded the U.S. from a triple-A rating.

JON C. OGG

Read more: The Last AAA Countries (And Those At Risk) - 24/7 Wall St.http://247wallst.com/2011/08/04/the-worlds-remaining-aaa-countries-and-those-that-are-at-risk-of-being-downgraded/#ixzz1U450CDcY

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Safe AAA:

1. Australia
> GDP per capita: $39,699.358

Australia was a solid AAA earlier this year and nothing has changed. Sure, it faces pressure from floods earlier this year, but the country is rich in natural resources that have to be used to build the world whenever the economy rises again. The low population of 21.5 million, an $882.4 billion GDP in 2010 projections, vast resource reserves, lower labor costs, and a low unemployment rate all act as a shield of global woes. Its public debt for 2010 was only projected to be 22.4% of GDP. The AAA rating is stable at S& P, and at Moody’s it’s Aaa with a stable outlook.

2. Canada
> GDP per capita: $39,057.444

Canada has a solid triple-A rating, and its deep trading ties to the U.S. does not jeopardize it, even if the U.S. has a troubled triple-A with a negative outlook. Canada has vast natural resources and its citizens mostly avoided the real estate and debt bubble that hurt the U.S. The population is under 34 million, its GDP is about $1.33 trillion, and public debt at the end of 2010 was a mere 34% or projected GDP. Neither Moody’s nor S& P have any issues with the triple-A ratings and stable outlook, and our take is that Canada is perhaps the safest triple-A rating of all nations in the Western Hemisphere.

3. Denmark
> GDP per capita: $36,449.554

Denmark has a relatively strong economy and claims a well educated population. The nation has a large dependence on foreign trade for goods and services and a small population of just over 5.5 million. Revised GDP data was put at $201.7 billion. What helped Denmark so much is that it had a surplus in its balance of payments before the government started spending to drive the economy. Its high property prices are a concern, as is a slowing trade environment. S& P has a solid AAA with a stable outlook and Moody’s has a Aaa with a stable outlook. The country has kept the Danish Kroner rather than officially joining the euro. Low birth rates, an aging population, taxation, immigration trends, and climate change are all risks for the small country longer-term by our count. However, Denmark has a sub-5% unemployment rate and a 2010 debt to GDP of only 46.6%. Denmark’s triple-A status remains firm here unless its services sector gets hit too hard with land prices all over again.

4. Germany
> GDP per capita: $36,033.284

Germany is still what we call “King of the Euro” with what is now just an undervalued Deutsche mark. With a population of 81.4 million and having the No.5 global economy, it cannot avoid leading the eurozone bailouts. GDP was $2.94 trillion in 2010 and its unemployment rate is healthy for a European nation. It also has a highly skilled labor force. The growing pains of absorbing East Germany are behind it and the ratings agencies bring no quarrel with its triple-A rating. Budget deficits, subsidies, tax cuts, aging population trends, immigration and the obvious leadership in eurozone bailouts do pose a risk. Still, public debt is tolerable at 78.8% of 2010 GDP. While any continued spending would pose longer-term risks, our take is that Germany will keep a triple-A rating longer than most nations.

5. Holland
> GDP per capita: $40,764.548

Holland, or The Netherlands, is in better shape than many eurozone countries. Its population is nearly 16.8 million and GDP is roughly $676.9 billion. A solid labor force, a surplus to its current account, and strong global industry all make it appear better than many eurorzone sister nations. High-tech exports, financial firms dominance, and its trade are all lags if and when the next recession takes hold. Budget deficits were high at 4.6% of 2009 targets and 5.6% of GDP in 2010 per earlier CIA data this year. Public debt is now projected at 64.6% of GDP and the ratings agencies have no current issues with the Dutch. Our take is that the triple-A rating has no severe risk as long as those dikes holding back the sea continue to work just fine.

6. Norway
> GDP per capita: $52,012.506

Norway has one of the best ratings going for it and the Economist Intelligence Unit gave it the only true AAA in earlier reports. The nation is rich in resources with a low population of almost 4.7 million people. GDP is highly dependent on the price of oil and was about $255.3 billion, and unemployment remains very low. Public debt was 47.7% of GDP. Norway is just about self-sufficient even if the climate of ‘welfare capitalism’ exists with close to 50% of exports being in oil. It also has the world’s second largest sovereign wealth fund valued at more than $500 billion. S& P and Moody’s have no issue with the triple-A ratings, and we view Norway as being just fine unless oil and fish suddenly go out of style.

7. Singapore
> GDP per capita: $56,521.731

Singapore is the sole Southeast Asian nation with a solid triple-A rating. Despite a reliance on foreign trade exports, investors consider Singapore the safest place today for Asia. Its population is tiny at 4.74 million and its revised GDP is $291.9 billion. Singapore did not avoid the recession, but it also proved to bounce back the most. Public debt is artificially high at 102.4% of GDP but that is a government tie of the Central Provident Fund. Imagine this for austerity measures: Singapore has actually not borrowed to finance any government deficits since the 1980s. S& P and Moody’s have no issues with the AAA rating and outlook, nor should investors. The only obvious risks are military action, climate change, or an unknown geological event. Barring those, Singapore has as solid of a triple-A status as they come.

8. Sweden
> GDP per capita: $38,031.484

Sweden is the largest of Scandinavian nations with nearly 9.1 million people. GDP was $354.7 billion per revised 2010 CIA data. Public debt in 2010 was 40.8% of GDP, shockingly low for Europe and Scandinavia. The nation was also not wrecked by World War II due to its neutral-nation status. Still, the country does rely heavily on exports it was not immune from the recession and it has reformed some financial policies while recovering. Immigration and population trends have been an issue, but the ratings agencies actually have no issue with its triple-A status. For that matter, we can’t criticize the triple-A rating at this point.

9. Switzerland
> GDP per capita: $41,663.047

Switzerland has only grown in standing since the woes of Europe and the world have grown in 2011. The solid triple-A status appears to be immune to the happenings around its border nations. The world’s banking center has actually had to warn that it might intervene if its currency strengthens too much more because it cannot export if other currencies keep falling. The mountain nation has a population of just over 7.6 million and 2010 revised GDP of about $324.5 billion. Unemployment is shockingly low public debt is still at 38.2% per revised 2010 data its taxation is rather low its healthcare system is a blended mechanism there are barriers to getting citizenship and a sensible retirement model all combine to offer no real threats at all to the triple-A rating here. The world can drive itself to hell, and Switzerland dominates.

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The markets have been roiled recently by the debt ceiling debate, the potential debt downgrade of the U.S., and the likely new recession that will come from the austerity measures.

For now, the U.S.’s triple-A rating appears to be secure, but only temporarily. When we last covered the full list of nations that still have triple-A ratings from key credit rating agencies our point was simple: there are some strong triple-A nations and some weak triple-A nations. As of today, there are many more weak triple-A ratings than there were just six months ago.

Moody’s has already affirmed the U.S. government’s Aaa rating, but with a negative outlook.

Fitch also affirmed its AAA rating for the U.S., but warned that the rising debt profile to over 100% of GDP (after 2012) is not consistent with retaining the crucial AAA sovereign rating.

As a result of the weakening economy, and following the ratings agency actions, 24/7 Wall St. has decided to reassess the entire global triple-A landscape. Our previous take was that some nations already seemed to be far less deserving of the triple-A rating category than others. The key assumption here is that the U.S. is no longer a true triple-A- rated nation. This implies that other nations with similar conditions are also at risk of losing their triple-A rating, and that there are really far fewer than 17 true nations in the triple-A club now. Our review includes updated figures from Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s along with revised statistics from the CIA World Factbook. We’ve sourced also from the Economist Intelligence Unit, Fitch, Egan Jones, and elsewhere.

S& P still has a triple-A rating on Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Other triple-A nations like Guernsey, Isle of Man, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg we left out due to their small size and dependence upon other nations. Moody’s ratings were also used to make sure that the discrepancies are not overlooked.

The writing is on the wall.

The U.S. can still count itself as a triple-A nation, but not indefinitely and not even for too much longer. Even the newly agreed debt-ceiling deal will not keep a downgrade from coming at some point in the intermediate-term if the hints from the ratings agencies are serious. Keep in mind that Japan lost its AAA rating in the late 1990s. It was further downgraded earlier this year. It was as recently as 2009 that S& P cut Ireland’s AAA rating. Italy and Spain were both AAA rated in the 1990s, but Spain was actually raised back to AAA before losing it again in 2009.

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Overweight on Singapore Banks as a Defensive Call

The Monetary Authority Singapore released the July month-end data yesterday. Loan growth in Singapore beat last month's all time high as corporate loans continue to move full steam ahead while mortgages slowed consecutively for the fifth month.

Overweight the Singapore banks as a defensive call
Macquarie Equities Research (MER) remains positive on Singapore banks from a regional perspective since January, as the banks’ balance sheet strength, yield, and SGD appreciation make them attractive in volatile markets. From a bottom up perspective, MER believes the banks offer reasonable value at current levels.

Top pick is UOB
UOB is the top pick, given MER’s positive view on its bank-centric business model and conservative management style. This is a defensive call. According to MER, investors who are more bullish on the world should opt for OCBC, which also has significant exposure to insurance, asset management, and private banking. MER retain Neutral rating on DBS due to their exposure to Singapore and Hong Kong which makes them a geared play on Fed tightening, but the Fed has pledged to hold rates low until 2013.

Code	Name	Type	Expiry	Exercise Price
OW5W	DBS MB eCW111201@	Call	01-Dec-11	13.70
OY4W	DBS MB ePW120106@	Put	06-Jan-12	13.80
OV6W	UOB MB eCW111205@	Call	05-Dec-11	18.60
OJ8W	OCBC Bk MBeCW120104@	Call	04-Jan-12	9.40

pharoah88 ( Date: 30-Aug-2011 21:18) Posted:

AUGUST 2011

Singapore banks

Credit Ratings

AA-