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Latest Posts By niuyear - Supreme      About niuyear
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11-Sep-2009 15:53 Genting Sing   /   GenSp starts to move up again       Go to Message
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Jonathant,

Yeah, i dont dare to bother broker becos :

1) they might laugh at our silly questions;

2) i always think i am small fry and they probably wont bother

so, we can only find our own way to solve our problems.

I find SGX quite polite when i ask some 'silly' questions, though, they sometimes engage but, they do call back after office hour. 

 



jonathant      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 15:43) Posted:

hi niuyear...tq. I was once a newbie too 2 & half years ago, clueless, ask remisier they don't tell you much....i learn some & i share some

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11-Sep-2009 15:42 DBS   /   DBS       Go to Message
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DBS slowly creeping up. When will the target $14plus be met?  New CEO Mr Piyush Gupta got any clue?  LOL
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11-Sep-2009 15:36 Genting Sing   /   GenSp starts to move up again       Go to Message
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Its kind of you to bother to inform newbies about right issue etc.  Appreciate that. :)

jonathant      ( Date: 11-Sep-2009 14:14) Posted:

...for the newbies, ...my 2cents worth….At this stage, some are worried why price moves against expectation, especially after the good vibes then the rights announcement, then the mixed/-ve news & whatnot…

Closing price on 9Sep $1.19, rights offer price $0.80, 1rights for 5.

Theoritical XR Price, Formula 5 x 1.19 + 0.80 divide by 6 (1+5) --> 1.125, round up 1.13

Expected to see price hovering around this as most people use this as a guide to trade

Genting expected to trade X Rights on 18Sep09, Friday, 9am

The XRights price may change according to close price on 17Sep

Assumming close price is 1.13, --> XR price on 18Sep will be 1.075, round up 1.08

Assumming close price is 1.21 (latest high), --> XR price on 18Sep will be 1.14

Example, Your current holding: 10000 unit

Your entitlement, Rights Shares (10000/5) :   2000 unit

If you don't subscribe (some think too troublesome) but still wanna hold current shares for long term

Sell your rights shares between 28Sep-6Oct, assuming it open at 0.1, your immediate realised cap gain/profit, 0.1 x 200 rights shares $200

Moving forward, factors that will affect the price movement include but not limited to:

(a) Rights shares expected issue dt 20Oct, tradeable 21Oct, meaning there'll be more shares in the mkt by 21Oct, estimate additional 1930million shares (if the rights shares are fully subscribed), these add shares cost price is $0.80, expect profit taking

(b) Bonds converted & ESOS exercised, & their rights shares subscribed, expect profit taking

And, any plus side will be based on:

Any further news announcement such as gaming licence, acquisition.

Local, regional & global market sentiment

If you are long term investor, just ignore everything, set your own TP, simply.


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11-Sep-2009 15:28 Others   /   Market News that affect STI       Go to Message
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Though we all looking to China to save the world, but, can it really save the world on its own? or ,  be enough to drag the rest of the world into a recovery?   Size matters -

The U.S. has a $14 trillion economy; China's is $4.4 trillion. The U.S. accounted for nearly 21% of total global GDP last year; China just 6.4%. Chinese consumption, in other words, is growing — but is still insufficient to lift the world's advanced economies out of recession. Consumer spending drives less than 40% of China's GDP; in the U.S. before the bust, the consumer accounted for almost 70%. With American shoppers now on the sidelines — the U.S. savings rate has soared from zero to nearly 7% in the past nine months as consumers have closed their wallets — the world desperately needs someone to step into that void.

 

 
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10-Sep-2009 15:37 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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If the below is not happening, then, my biggest worry is terrorists attack followed by air-borne disease that not only causing human livies, but, the world economy .

Tomorrow 11 sept and i guess US people are mourning for their loved ones who lost their lives to terrorists' attack.  How will DOW perform this week?



niuyear      ( Date: 10-Sep-2009 15:29) Posted:



a bit of superstitious talk -

Heard from a 'feng shui' talk that there is 1 more financail institution might fail this year, and now already Sept, still no sign of it as yet.....  If this is real, then, STI 1200 etc is not impossible.

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10-Sep-2009 15:29 Others   /   Prepare for risk of double-dip recession       Go to Message
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a bit of superstitious talk -

Heard from a 'feng shui' talk that there is 1 more financail institution might fail this year, and now already Sept, still no sign of it as yet.....  If this is real, then, STI 1200 etc is not impossible.
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10-Sep-2009 09:20 Others   /   DOW       Go to Message
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Aiyoh,  dont want lar, what if hungry ghosts peep thru the banana leaf and thought got banana inside and eat tat 'banana', then how.  kekeke!
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10-Sep-2009 09:05 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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"After selling, prices go higher" - I suppose they are playing sentiment game and wanna us to keep buying higher and keep selling higher.  Now quite scared  to 'buy again and hold' unless very sure that particular stock's price is still undervalued.  

cheerfully      ( Date: 09-Sep-2009 22:44) Posted:

Hmm.. seems a lot of us are in the same situation as star-trader. After selling,  the price go higher. Didn't sell than and it goes lower. But I always remind myself what Cheong Wee said. We didn't lost any money.. we only make less profit.. so be happy that there is profit

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04-Sep-2009 15:57 DBS   /   DBS       Go to Message
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You might have forgotten how 'sub-prime' crisis started in western countries and sprad to asia...and Lehmen brothers saga....All are so call 'foreigners with talents'....

keepnosecrets      ( Date: 04-Sep-2009 15:45) Posted:

Singaporeans are never exposed to the wilder environment of business.  They are a cultured and nuctured specie, and it is difficult to say whether a specie such as ours is good or bad for big business.  I am a Singaporean too and sad to say this. Our talents have gone overseas, so we exchange them with oversea talents and I see nothing wrong with that. 

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04-Sep-2009 15:37 DBS   /   DBS       Go to Message
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I agree with you whole-heartedly.  POSB more friendly environment.  Though POSB clients can do transaction at DBS bank, but, i was told , they usually wont go to DBS becos the bank environment like quite unfriendly and those older folks who dont speak english, feel  uneasy to step in.....  

If DBS is gearing towards global banks like Citigroup, then, just leave POSB alone.  I want to see a truly home-grown bank that will serve anyone, from  young toddlers who just want to save from as little as 10 cents by having a stamp book as a passport til his young adulthood to our senior citizens whom dont speak english......let them walk into the national bank and feel welcomed and proud.  No amount is too little to save!

 



Sporeguy      ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 20:07) Posted:

I don't know why DBS keep on getting Citi's pple. Too me, Citi has done badly which also reflects that their personnel are not that great. DBS has always been over-aggressive, that is why they stone-walled in Indonesia, losses in Thailand, etc. Better to stand on firm ground and earn less than taken for a ride in many hostile countries. They need DBS when they are down, once they are up they create a lot of unresonably reasons to oust DBS. Without POSB, I think DBS were down in the drain in 1997. I'm not invested in DBS, neither will I in the future unless DBS becomes a friendly bank like POSB or OCBC. In fact, I hope that POSB to be separated from DBS. POSB is more down to earth. Because it is now under DBS, it has grown a bit aggressive which I think is not good for ordinary citizens.

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04-Sep-2009 15:22 DBS   /   DBS       Go to Message
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Yeah, hope he doesnt 'run' after 1 year like Temasek ex-CEO....LOL.  I am not racist, but, i am hoping to see someone whom we could relate to as 'singaporean' whom probably has gone overseas to  study, armed with  foreign exposure in the same industry and return to serve this multiracial country with heart and soul .........

DBS has just been named - THE BEST ASIAN BANK by FinancialAsia. -  Keep it up!



AK_Francis      ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 17:49) Posted:

Ha ha, hope he dun chow halfway.

Nonetheless, be it Ang Mo, Yellow or Black one, as far as can bring wealth to d bank n making d stock px up n going, it is a good Mo.



niuyear      ( Date: 01-Sep-2009 16:47) Posted:

Another 'Ang Mo' to be CEO?   Disappointing announcement.


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03-Sep-2009 16:06 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Are wall street brokers work like Singapore brokers as well?  Those Ang mo in below pictures like crowding the whole trading floor and shouting and yelling and runing around......Is singapore stock exchange also like this huh?   Stock up they cry, stock down they cry.  LOL
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03-Sep-2009 14:36 Armstrong   /   whats the target price?       Go to Message
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Sometime, MFT say 'buy' but price will drop next day or next few days.......if price go up good, but, drop, then curse them.  LOL



niuyear      ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 14:21) Posted:



Kim Eng Analyst report tp $0.34

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03-Sep-2009 14:21 Armstrong   /   whats the target price?       Go to Message
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Kim Eng Analyst report tp $0.34
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03-Sep-2009 14:17 Others   /   SGX new rule ????       Go to Message
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It would be nice if brokerage house could pay interest to those 'stocks' that are 'bought' and also 'sold' by using the same brokerage house. 
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03-Sep-2009 11:12 Sakari   /   Straits Asia       Go to Message
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CW,  do 'tinkle' us when is time to play this stock again. Tku.

cheongwee      ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 11:10) Posted:



any one still holding here, after so much profit and u still greedy for more..

i told u this one long ago, when i sold...put your money to work hard for you eslewhere,,,

before this rally really end...

it will be play, but i dont know when...i hear i tell days before hand...pls dyodd.

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03-Sep-2009 11:10 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Hahaha, if you could have predicted 'your post' earlier, and post them say in March or April 2009,  sure a lot of people will buy  all undervalued stocks with 'big' money and sell into rally in Aug/sept.   Thank you for your sharing.



jeremyow      ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 00:00) Posted:

Most stocks are already fully valued at fair value. There is no more incentive for bargain buys now. Last year October to this year April was the best time period to capture undervalued stocks from good companies. So, those investors who have bought into undervalued shares of good companies in their portfolio over that period, and now have sold off may not get such bargain prices revisiting them again in future. As mentioned by many, that period was a rare period of significant stock price retreat ever since world war two. So, those investors who did not invest at such low bargain prices (due to fear) or have already sold off their shares recently for a one-time gain, may not be able to buy back at such low valuations a long time into the future. 

Investors may have got their fair share of good profits from recent rally if they have sold off their shares. However, this is the only much they can get. It is always the patient long term investors who will eventually reap the greater rewards by compounding their returns from their undervalued shares. Just observe good companies around (e.g. Wilmar International, Singapore banks, Keppel Corp, Great Eastern Holdings). The early investors who still have shares bought at low levels in such companies are already sitting on good compounding returns ever since they bought into shares of these companies which have increased over many folds in capital gains and dividends payout. This compounding effect is even more pronounced if the investor has huge amounts of shares already bought at low levels. It is the later investors who bought in at higher levels that may not get as good compounding returns compared to those that bought in earlier at lower levels.

Good companies can grow and compound one's returns significantly over a period of time. If such good companies have chance to be traded at undervalued levels again, it is unmistakeably a rare opportunity not to be missed for buying their shares. That was October last year to April this year. Now, it is extremely difficult to get such bargains again. So, there are not many worthy businesses of investing value at undervalued prices now. However, if prices are also not extremely overvalued based on current market valuation, one may still invest though at less attractive prices now than before.

Will March lows be revisited again? No one has the answer. However, if the stock train stops miraculously again at March lows, make sure one don't miss the train again (due to fear overshadowing rational decision making).



niuyear      ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 17:05) Posted:

Kindly share which stocks are right now still 'undervalue' since March's rally


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02-Sep-2009 17:05 Straits Times Index   /   STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors       Go to Message
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Kindly share which stocks are right now still 'undervalue' since March's rally.

jeremyow      ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 16:18) Posted:



Short term wise, the stock market is a betting machine (with everchanging sentiments and prices). Long term wise, the stock market is a weighing machine (with rising stock prices supported by economic fundamentals). There is no need for rocket science to forecast the stock market, just common sense. One can easily see the economic fundamentals globaly has started to improve. Though, global economy is still not out of the woods yet, there is already clear signs of improvement compared to one year before. So, economy is already recovering, but very very slowly and no one knows when the economy will be totally recovered to a healthy level. Usually, it is on hindsight that one will know that the economy has fully recovered. By then, the stock prices will be already overvalued since stock market always recover few months ahead of the actual economic recovery. 

Many investors and institutions are not stupid. They react very fast to every fresh news and indicators released. Look at the recent rally from March lows and one can see the effects of any piece of good news (though not very impressive economic news and indicators indicating recovery) that have institutional buyers and retail investors rushing back into equities to push up the prices (such that one may think we are already in a bull run with significant price surge). It was as if massive funds from institutions and retail investors were already in "alert mode" just waiting for any piece of stimulating good news, so that funds can immediately rush in at the first moment to capture the recent rally. The buying and selling sentiments are dependent on incoming news and indicators. These news and indicators though not to be ignored totally, still form competing noises competing for the buying and selling momentum.

Does one base his buying and selling decisions just on the short term fluctuations of the stock market or the long term market valuations? Is there really going to be a correction? If so, how much will the stock market correct to? If someone has the answer, he can be rightly given the prestigious title of "Mr Market Fortune Teller". It is easy to lose the big picture if one gets caught up with daily or weekly fluctuations in stock market prices. There is nothing wrong with wanting to sell to lock in past paper profits and prevent one's profits from downsizing in a temporary price dip. One always give the arguement that should prices go up after one sells, one can always buy back higher. What matters is that one always profit and never lose. However, what makes one so sure that the next stock or same stock one buys at higher price is going even higher. An impatient investor that always "hit and run" from stocks will tend to do so because he wants to see profits fast. Yes. High can go higher. Just make sure one is not the last to catch the bomb being pass from one investor to the next willing buyer at even higher prices (a display of "greater fool theory").

Another fearful reaction is to exit at the first sign of impending drop in prices. If one has bought a lot of shares too high, he should be rightly fearful since it means a potential significant loss for him. However, if one has bought lots of shares at low stock valuations, what is the big deal with a temporary dip in prices if he has a long term investing horizon? He will be gladly waiting for lower prices to present yet another buying opportunity. For the former "hit and run" type investors, though he thinks he is in control and knows when to buy and sell, it is also ironical that he may not be in total control since he is tossed around by the swings and moods of the stock market to determine his actions. 

Many may know the basic rule of buying low and selling high. However, not many may understand this rule of buying low and selling high applies with respect to the valuations of the market and individual stock, and not with respect to short term fluctuations between minor low and minor high which do not necessarily reflect undervalued or overvalued prices. Should one sell at current market valuation? The answer depends on whether the market is going to head higher than current valuations in future. If this is an overvalued market now and stock market indices will not go any higher for the next decade, by all means sell all is better now. If market is to head higher in future (gradually), rethink carefully whether one is selling low and will be buying higher in future? No matter what the arguements one has, the market is always right in showing itself whether it is currently undervalued, fully valued or grossly overvalued already. 

<Investing is just simply paying less to get better returns. Buy undervalued excellent businesses and reap compounded returns. Sell only when the business is grossly overvalued or when it is not worth investing in the business anymore because it has deteroriated permanently or there is a better business than current one to invest in.>

<Focus on businesses and let the stock market fluctuations and valuations present the right prices to buy or sell.> <Minor swings will be forgotten soon as the stock market continues to head higher in future.>  <Just make sure one is not left behind out of the bigger general rising trend, being outsmarted by his own smartness always on the "hit and run".>

<My two cents worth.> <Please dyodd too. Thanks.>

   

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01-Sep-2009 17:04 China Sports   /   China Sport       Go to Message
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If we still remember the call from this person 'newtothis'  to buy at $0.145 and

target price more than $0.20.   Looks like his call was right?  Now this stock has surged passed $0.20...
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01-Sep-2009 16:47 DBS   /   DBS       Go to Message
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Another 'Ang Mo' to be CEO?   Disappointing announcement.
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