Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 08-Aug-2008 16:26 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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edit: oh, and for the record, you do not cut capland. at least, not at this stage. way oversold and rebound likely. if you have guts, wait for bottom, go in deep and DCA it out. cos if you follow this baby, when it rebounds, it rebounds sharp and fast. be psychologically prepared for further drop to 411 possible tho (worst case scenario is a sub 4.). actually, i consider capland to be a speculative/trading counter and not a fundamental counter. it's v good for rapid trades. unlike say, STE. today may be induced by margin calls. buy support thin so when margin calls come in, the counter will dive quite a bit. easy for BB to shoot this counter down cos you only need about S$5mil or less, going by current buy Qs.. ie, 3-4 baby props can bring down this counter, don't even need a real big BB. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 16:19 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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having a big heart doesn't pay, idesa. 
i'll 'fess up that i was one of those who took the opp of the previous rebound tho. played it 511 to 530 (missed the 543 cos i was sleeping.  )
sigh. humulas, sir, you seem to be holding a lot of counters.... i'm not the kind of person who whitewashes things, so 'll be frank: generally, i'd advise a cut on all dying speculatives, and use the funds to wait to shore up the better counters instead. don't think of it as loss, think of it as capital preservation and a diversion of funds, if you will. sometimes, need to cut off the rotting parts so that the tree can grow again. 
gotta be realistic and not expect profit though. you'd probably be lucky to escape with slight loss or even square. choice of counters will be what makes/breaks your decision. not all pennies are bad, not all blues are good. So if we were to divide them up (you have to look at your own folio) 1) for some counters, they're likely deader than dodos. those need to be cut. 2) some speculative counters that are too far down, you may want to try a DCA instead, average down and try later to run at slight loss or maybe even profit. 3) good counters, just hold, average them down when opportunity arises. -entire strategy will likely take 18-24 mths to bear (+) fruit. you will require funds, though. Which (1) should provide. hondastream, nothing much negative really; just general bad climate, plus its results weren't that good, prognosis isn't good, etcetc. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 14:30 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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issuing caution note on capland: it's currently resting near exactly its Apr-Sept 06 support of ~5. next support is 4.11-4.2, so if it breaks this support, be prepared for quite a steep fall. alt is a ping up tech rebound from here. bias seems more likely for down tho; not fully oversold yet. plus large lots threw today from 503 (100-400 lots each throw). fyi only. not vested. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 14:08 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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'tis ok, jj, i know you weren't 'angling' me. 
this thread has been traditionally hot-headed tho. as with its movements: volatile.
and ehhh, trader88, it's also common to overly praise someone who seems to be on your side. but yea, not just this counter, but a lot of small retailers never know what they're getting into when they play the market. a couple of swift gains seduces them, and it's like gambling. over and over, they think they can make it back, make it big. but what is the reality? 95% of traders don't make it. What more small fries.
let's just stick with the facts lah. level-headedness is infinitely better for longterm survival. for biosensors: this stock is currently overbought. there's been massive play. those who are in, may be good to lock in some and if you dare, ride some more. if you think you have enough, it's good money management to lock in. after all, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. just don't regret any decision after it's done. hindsight is perfect: so no cause for regret, really. we just do the best we can with what info we have at that time. and apologies to those vested for seeming to be a wet blanket on this counter. esp when i'm not vested at all in this.  just that from BUSD, i'm seeing too many gungho retailers yest and today. For a stock that's overbought and ramped 45% already. It's worrying, to say the least. Some reason and prudence is in order. Of course for their sakes i do hope this stock continues up. The trouble with the market is that people only remember the winners but never the losers.
If i may make a further prediction (and hopefully, i'm wrong haha): biosensors is the next Jade. 8c to 55c, thereafter up and down like crazy, 50%-100% movement each time. So for experienced traders you can make a lot on this counter; but you can also lose a lot. Caveat emptor hence applies. You need to know your own risk appetite and how much you can stomach before you take on a counter like this. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 13:36 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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haha, if there's one thing i learnt, it's that trust and altruism doesn't pay in s'pore. o/w, look! i found my favourite pixar video!  i love this one!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfZ_d...eature=related |
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| 08-Aug-2008 13:09 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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(just reposting from the capland thread) it's very difficult for people who know to share on open forums, since you could very well be marked by them. already, ppl like me, trader88 etc are taking a big risk when we post out. which is why generalities are only possible but not actual specific evidence: even tho i fully believe many here can give it if required. tactics of the BB. if there's one thing you need to know in order to beat the market, it is this. combined with technicals and discipline, you need nothing else, really. but their tactics is also the most closely guarded secret of the trade. eg, straight-off, i can tell you what you need to know to survive this counter and profit. but what's the cost to me? we still need to survive.
------- and thanks baseer for the inputs. much appreciated. :) i did consider those points too, which is why i'm hesitating. for one thing, if you ask me, theory is just that, theory. lots of courses can teach it; in fact, you can get it for free on the net. but in the end, it's practice that will determine a winner. and trading live is very different from just knowing the theory. That requires hands-on practice, plus consistent reinforcement. so how? 
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| 08-Aug-2008 13:06 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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hopini, very difficult for people who know to share on open forums, since you could very well be marked by them. already, ppl like me, trader88 etc are taking a big risk when we post out. which is why generalities are only possible but not actual specific evidence: even tho i fully believe many here can give it if required. tactics of the BB. if there's one thing you need to know in order to beat the market, it is this. combined with technicals and discipline, you need nothing else, really. but their tactics is also the most closely guarded secret of the trade. eg, straight-off, i can tell you what you need to know to survive this counter and profit. but what's the cost to me? we still need to survive.
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:59 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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well, our kids go for private tuition, isn't it? wonder if private tuition for stocks is possible. haha. since this way, if it's a weekly or once every two week lesson, ppl can absorb better (i can't imagine having to sit through 4-6 hrs of market info at one shot >~< ), plus there's constant reinforcement/reminder. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:54 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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hard to say, CWQuah, a final spurt is still possible. can i pls just clarify one thing tho: it's not that i'm talking down this counter or whatever; i don't feel anything for any counter. I did think it prudent to issue a note of caution though, because it's very much human nature to want to chase a rising stock--everyone loves a winner--when strictly speaking (barring insider news), you should never chase a ramped up stock, especially one that has gone up ~45% in less than 10 trading sessions, and is currently at MFI >90, plus williams < 10 (ie, grossly overbought). If you're chasing it now, i'd fully expect that you are privy to some privileged news; alternatively, that you're an experienced trader who can run fast. If you did buy it earlier at 46c, congrats to you of course. :) Essentially, a note of caution is in order not for those who are already in it, but for those, esp newbies, who are thinking of jumping in at this late stage. Concisely put: you have no idea who you're dealing with. So caution is always better. After all, if you're in a foreign country alone for the first time and you do not speak the language, you'd not leave your wallet lying open, would you? cheers. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:36 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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read previous post. even toss either way, because a large part of the ramp up has been done already. will say one thing tho: shortists likely to get caught on it today.
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:34 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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it's human nature to be arrogant when you're on top. interesting technicals: previous high vol was twice of this current churning. to be expected since a couple of BBs got burnt on it back in mar/april. which leaves only the main operators likely in this. SCL for this counter is ~S$6mil. Yesterday's large lots churning was just about that. Which means very likely, only one or two main House(s) plus a couple of rider traders/runner accounts playing this counter. If the ramp up is real based on real news with regards to their 12th aug meeting (what bengster mentioned about), then stock can still do a final spurt, but there is a case for insider trading. If it is pure speculation, then it would be a buy-on-rumor-sell-on-news phenomenon. even toss either way. caveat applies to all the above.
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:16 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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zzz......is anyone else in forex, apart from the regular forex junction thread folks? only biosensors still being played. o/w, even BB got tired after yesterday. Some nursing wounds, others counting profit. haha. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 12:12 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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ya know, jj, real chartists do not talk down or up a counter. they merely call it as it is. can understand to many how it'd appear to be 'changing your mind' or 'going with the wind', but then, that IS how you trade the market. no affection or whatever for any counter. it's beautiful watching this counter tho, i really applaud the main house leading this. and the miracle is that our incompetent authorities seem to do nothing about it at all. I only hope the small fries getting in at this late stage do not get caught. trader88, i've read your blog, so i guess you do know some of what goes on within the houses. you see the changing of hands at 67.5-68? Beautifully done. hehe. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 21:25 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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the truth, however, is that they can. never underestimate the power of money.
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| 07-Aug-2008 21:03 |
Others
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DOW
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unemployment claims 455k cf to forecast of 420k. Pending home sales out at 10 pm, forecast -1%. if the figure is less, can expect djia to drop majorly tonight. sian. don't bother watching market tmrw already. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 16:58 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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yea, salute the operators behind man. haha. and yea, more upside in the very (x3) short term. they should be about to hit their counter limits. very, very well played. i'll never want to go against them. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 16:47 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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haha, cwquah, the boys in this counter very powerful, eh? anyone wants to bet that they'll kena SGX query again today, to which the reply will be "we know of no material reason...." blah blah blah? 
i don't know which is 'worse'. that a counter can be so blatantly ramped up, or that our authorities are powerless to do anything about it. money talks, indeed. ah well. another day, another dollar. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 16:29 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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haha, yes, trader88. tho sometimes, these kind of thing can catch people unaware, esp if they think cosco is a stable counter (ie, stock selection wrong). shd have a tech rebound sometime soon tho. it's massively oversold. wld frankly advise to cut on the rebound if any. too risky. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 16:07 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hm ok. am beginning to think that retailers are in worser shape than i thought. (no offence to any, yea...) not sure how many of you know about personality profiling (which hence determines your investing/trading style), stock selection and money management. A bit too much to go into at one shot (yes, synnexo, i'm taking your advice :P )--- but for now: if you are keen on a counter, unless you're an experienced trader, for goodness' sakes, pls do NOT just enter all at one shot, even for a fast scalp. It may be wiser to enter only half your funds, then if it goes up, lock it in fast. But if it goes down, you still have capital to average down. Above all: if it drops to 10% of your average px between the two buys, stop loss. Cut the counter and don't look back. Don't wait til your counter is down 25 or 50% before you stop loss. That becomes a DCA point, not a sell point. Also: never sell on a down day when your counter is 100% oversold. At that point, you may as well wait for a tech rebound. This is basic money management for a trader. Just sharing. |
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| 07-Aug-2008 15:49 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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yah. in short: follow the walk, not the talk. | ||
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