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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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Livermore
Master |
09-Aug-2008 13:32
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When you see a stock suddenly surge up and then at closing it suddenly close lower or weak, it is usually an indication the uptrend is not sustainable | ||||
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idesa168
Elite |
09-Aug-2008 09:51
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I am happy to short BIG to below 0.60 if Monday opens higher then 0.67. No offense, just trading this counter for kopi$$, not a counter I will hold for long term. i am not negative on BIG, just that the mkt had been battered down quite badly lately that there are abundance of "value" stock in the mkt to choose from. Since BIG had his sahre of run up recently (about 20%), it's about time BIG give back some of his gain. Remember, stock price does ont travel in straight line. | ||||
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bengster68
Master |
09-Aug-2008 02:14
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I did a lot of research on this company Elfinchilde. Nothing about insider info. Many people here are technical traders. Did anyone attend the AGM and listened carefully what was spoken? Did anyone asked people working in DES industry how is the market receiving Biomatrix? Did anyone really go very deep into this company's fundamental analysis or try to comprehend all the medical terms? How about whats going on in DES industry? Does anyone truly understands the importance of top class clinical trial results for biomed industry? What kind of value proprietary IPs and patents holds? Frankly if BIG's stent technology is number 2 or 3 in performance, I would not be interested in buying one single BIG shares. BIG will not stand a chance against MNCs if their technology is number 2 or 3. Because i conclude that BIG indeed has the best DES technology, BIG has a real potential to become a respectable global DES player with a real M&A possibility. It is about time this stock deserve to run up 40% over the past 1 week because about one month ago this stock was irrationally sold to 46cts from 67cts within one week also. It was way oversold. BIG was way way too cheap. The best stent technology company in the world cannot be valued at US$0.35B (incl CE Mark and China JWMS). Someone pointed out in AGM that Abbott bought Xience R&D program (without CE Mark or massive clinical trial results) for US$4.1B cash couple of years ago. Last year, JNJ bought Conor for US$1.4B cash for a stent that cannot work and suffering from multiple patent ligation issues. If we use these 2 recent DES M&A deals as a benchmark, how much could BIG be truly worth in the DES industry M&A valuation? Has anyone really calculated out BIG's royalties from licensees 2 to 3 years down the road? Does anybody knows that BIG still has not awarded Biomatrix USA territory, global territories of Bioflex, Biomatrix-Freedom, Biolimus ABSORB DES? This stock is just grossly misunderstood by investors and way way undervalued. From what i can see, the fundmentals of this company is at its best form since IPO but share price was at its lowest (below 50cts). Isn't it a very strong BUY signal to anyone who understands FA on this stock? The recent continuous strong buying could be due to some institutions who feel the same way as i feel and start mopping up BIG shares in a BIG way. |
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CWQuah
Master |
08-Aug-2008 17:20
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This is one of the TA techniques for me to evaluate (based on bar charting) to see if the rally can sustain anymore. To me, if the bar chart cannot close above a previous high, I take it as a potential sign of impending reversal. Reversal of course may not come to fruition if there are still people getting swept into the buying frenzy. There are of course other things to weigh e.g. anymore BB still inside this stock, impending news, etc, but personally, looking at the TA, I certainly would advise some caution. I've nothing against supporters of the stock, or FA-based investors. I'm just reading its moves as it comes. I shld have qualified the earlier statement - if it closes at or below 66c, better to take profit 1st.
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allright
Senior |
08-Aug-2008 17:07
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jasonrxz
Senior |
08-Aug-2008 16:42
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Wow.... it may really close at .66 from what i see now... but what is the reason being this quote? can highlight on this??
cheers
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 14:13
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You are very right, ramped up 45% in such a short time, I also got shocked, heee.. correction might happen, but I believe this BB is really happy lately.. maybe like you say, only this and only one BB... at least far better than LMA, keep buying back company shares and dead at 0.18.. poor things.. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 14:08
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'tis ok, jj, i know you weren't 'angling' me. 
this thread has been traditionally hot-headed tho. as with its movements: volatile. 
and ehhh, trader88, it's also common to overly praise someone who seems to be on your side. but yea, not just this counter, but a lot of small retailers never know what they're getting into when they play the market. a couple of swift gains seduces them, and it's like gambling. over and over, they think they can make it back, make it big. but what is the reality? 95% of traders don't make it. What more small fries.
let's just stick with the facts lah. level-headedness is infinitely better for longterm survival. for biosensors: this stock is currently overbought. there's been massive play. those who are in, may be good to lock in some and if you dare, ride some more. if you think you have enough, it's good money management to lock in. after all, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. just don't regret any decision after it's done. hindsight is perfect: so no cause for regret, really. we just do the best we can with what info we have at that time. and apologies to those vested for seeming to be a wet blanket on this counter. esp when i'm not vested at all in this.  just that from BUSD, i'm seeing too many gungho retailers yest and today. For a stock that's overbought and ramped 45% already. It's worrying, to say the least. Some reason and prudence is in order. Of course for their sakes i do hope this stock continues up. The trouble with the market is that people only remember the winners but never the losers.
If i may make a further prediction (and hopefully, i'm wrong haha): biosensors is the next Jade. 8c to 55c, thereafter up and down like crazy, 50%-100% movement each time. So for experienced traders you can make a lot on this counter; but you can also lose a lot. Caveat emptor hence applies. You need to know your own risk appetite and how much you can stomach before you take on a counter like this. |
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 13:55
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Good analysis. Let's eyes on Aug 12. My post is not "shooting you", don't worry. I only press down those "gentle"man ...
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
08-Aug-2008 13:37
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elfinchilde, I did notice the amazing changing of hands at 67.5/68.0 cents, very smoothly executed. I guess you are one of the few here that can really understand me. You know, besides your cute emoticons, I also like ALL your posts, so full of logic, wisdom and philosophy. From the bottom of my heart, I really hope BIG's rebound will sustain because it will definitely bring more joys to forumers here. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:54
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hard to say, CWQuah, a final spurt is still possible. can i pls just clarify one thing tho: it's not that i'm talking down this counter or whatever; i don't feel anything for any counter. I did think it prudent to issue a note of caution though, because it's very much human nature to want to chase a rising stock--everyone loves a winner--when strictly speaking (barring insider news), you should never chase a ramped up stock, especially one that has gone up ~45% in less than 10 trading sessions, and is currently at MFI >90, plus williams < 10 (ie, grossly overbought). If you're chasing it now, i'd fully expect that you are privy to some privileged news; alternatively, that you're an experienced trader who can run fast. If you did buy it earlier at 46c, congrats to you of course. :) Essentially, a note of caution is in order not for those who are already in it, but for those, esp newbies, who are thinking of jumping in at this late stage. Concisely put: you have no idea who you're dealing with. So caution is always better. After all, if you're in a foreign country alone for the first time and you do not speak the language, you'd not leave your wallet lying open, would you? cheers. |
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CWQuah
Master |
08-Aug-2008 12:43
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All I can say is, if today it closes at 66c exactly, RUN. | ||||
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:36
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read previous post. even toss either way, because a large part of the ramp up has been done already. will say one thing tho: shortists likely to get caught on it today.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:34
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it's human nature to be arrogant when you're on top. interesting technicals: previous high vol was twice of this current churning. to be expected since a couple of BBs got burnt on it back in mar/april. which leaves only the main operators likely in this. SCL for this counter is ~S$6mil. Yesterday's large lots churning was just about that. Which means very likely, only one or two main House(s) plus a couple of rider traders/runner accounts playing this counter. If the ramp up is real based on real news with regards to their 12th aug meeting (what bengster mentioned about), then stock can still do a final spurt, but there is a case for insider trading. If it is pure speculation, then it would be a buy-on-rumor-sell-on-news phenomenon. even toss either way. caveat applies to all the above.
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:33
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a ha.. you have a blog... full time US equity day trader...
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:28
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so, all the TA experts, mind to tell us what is the trend of BIG in next 2 weeks? |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:12
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ya know, jj, real chartists do not talk down or up a counter. they merely call it as it is. can understand to many how it'd appear to be 'changing your mind' or 'going with the wind', but then, that IS how you trade the market. no affection or whatever for any counter. it's beautiful watching this counter tho, i really applaud the main house leading this. and the miracle is that our incompetent authorities seem to do nothing about it at all. I only hope the small fries getting in at this late stage do not get caught. trader88, i've read your blog, so i guess you do know some of what goes on within the houses. you see the changing of hands at 67.5-68? Beautifully done. hehe. |
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jackjames
Elite |
08-Aug-2008 12:09
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here come a rat .... more rats to come... let's count them.. |
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trader88.sg
Veteran |
08-Aug-2008 11:50
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ha ha ha. so funny. 
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AK_Francis
Supreme |
08-Aug-2008 11:43
Yells: "Happy go lucky, cheers." |
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our persistent nurturing efforts and relentless mentoring around deserve the harvast. N. Day bansai, alikado gosaimas. |
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