Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 12-Aug-2008 16:30 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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actually, cwquah, i wouldn't buy this counter at any price now. heh. a pity, for such a company with stellar results. what killed this counter was not the BBs, but the management themselves. extremely inept handling of publicity--plus, directors who do regular trading AND insider trading--so what resulted was a massive loss of public confidence, hence the downtrend. Even if cosco does recover, you're not likely to see 3.2 again. It wasn't the BBs--who just took the opportunity--if management had played it rightly, this counter should have shot way up based on their results instead of down. Which is why i always say, gotta differentiate between a company and its stock. Very different things. anyhow, watch if 2.3 holds today. Friday will be crucial for this baby. |
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| 12-Aug-2008 16:24 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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hehe, good for you, jj! 
and bengster's right, actually. you can check counterparty by asking your broker. also, just because it was MS or ML the last time, doesn't mean BNP can't play this time as well. BNP is not a regular name on our market, so if they are buying, i'd say bengster is more likely to be right that they are buying for a client rather than house traders. and really, give bengster a break. Just because he invests on fundamentals, doesn't mean he's wrong. Moreover, he's already said he's in for the longterm. And his call for this counter has been consistent whether it goes up or down. Forums are precisely for different opinions to be aired. No one asks people to just buy on his words, or sell on another person's words. Every investor has to be responsible for themselves. Besides, what's the point of everyone agrees? Someone has to win, someone has to lose. It's all part of the market. So cool it, folks! :) |
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| 12-Aug-2008 14:32 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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fyi update only: appears that they're trying to support cosco at 235. but there also appears to be an automated system (alt a 'live' BB) selling at the same px. it's tug of war now. So be careful if today closes below 230. caveat applies. not vested. |
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| 12-Aug-2008 14:21 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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eh well, i care about the bad post ratings.  not so much the compliment/whatever, but that if you get a bad rating when all you've done is posted proper information, really, it says more about the giver of the rating than about the post. no point shooting the messenger, isn't it. 
irl, it's akin to shoving each other at lifts, or trying to potong queues. therefore, we should all stand against such bad behaviour. 
and yes, STI looks less bearish. prob cos SSE recovered. actually, i'd rather the STI just die once and for all, and then a real recovery can begin. Rather than this ding-donging about the pivot, trading in tight ranges, and going nowhere ultimately. sian. and i just missed my forex trade cos i was away from screen for lunch! 50 pips! 
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| 12-Aug-2008 13:19 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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heck the negative reviews, CWQuah. One never makes money by following the crowd. Besides, you're simply saying what the charts say. Which is what a good, impartial techie will do. zhong1 yan2 ni4 er3. and haha, yuppers, ozone. history always repeats itself; human nature never changes. which is why, all the more important to learn the patterns of the past, so that you can recognise them now and in the future, and apply them. The first aim of investing is not to profit, really. It's to avoid loss. |
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| 12-Aug-2008 13:16 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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yuppers, cwquah. market expects is different from the movement though. as in, most people expect the EU pair to go up, UJ to go down. going by trends tho, it's EU down to 14600 and UJ up to who-knows-where. The irony is that, for all the currencies, it's the US that has more or less factored in all the bad news already, while the Euro hasn't. So ironically, the safest currency is the USD now. Historically, the DJIA has never been down in an election year. ie, you can see central banks fingerprints all over forex, gold and equities. 
so yea, which is why gold will be down for now. the question that then remains: a temporary down, or a permanent down? it's a qn i was discussing with a friend earlier. STI/Asia doesn't look strong; money is flowing out of the commods. So where's money going? DJIA!
what then for gold? there's been buyups these two days on the SPDR GLD; one was a 1,000 lot buyup. That's about S$100k on one trade. which is counter the major trend. Considering gold here is controlled by Citi and MS, something's cooking somewhere. i'm just KIVing til friday to make a decision. hehe. |
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| 12-Aug-2008 12:23 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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short notes for the day: a lot of people pay attention to price, but they neglect to watch volume. Volume, more than price, is the one thing you should not neglect. 1) When a stock rises a lot on low volume (comparative to its daily vol and/or the vol of its drop), that's a warning signal that the rally is unsustainable. so if you're in, it should be a fast scalp and not a longterm hold. 2) Likewise, if a stock drops on low vol, it's a signal that it's only a temporary drop. ie, buy and not cut the counter. This is especially so if you count only the large lots traded. So why cosco needs to be watched out for: on back of yesterday's rise of the STI, and a friday's chiong in the DJIA, the counter went down instead. Related to that is the issue of tandem counters. ie, counters that are related. You must know if your counter is allied to another. Eg, Sembmar holds cosco, so when cosco goes down, sembmar will likewise go down. Bad sentiments tend to affect an entire sector, especially so if one holds stock of the other. The difference: Cosco is down on genuine bad news. Sembmar is down because of cosco. Hence if you held both, what would you do? Sell cosco, buy sembmar on a dip. Which worked out: The day of the cosco plunge, sembmar dipped to 368. it's a signal for a trading buy rather than a stop loss, since you know it's only temporary. And yuppers, sembmar went back to 3.8 within a couple of days. It'll likely move higher, too. Back to the 402 level. So that's how you id a fast scalp. and/or a shoring up opportunity if you happened to be holding it earlier (recognising the "buy on dip" philosophy, in an actual example). |
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| 12-Aug-2008 12:12 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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cool it, people. disgraceful behaviour to be shouting up or down a counter. let the market walk the talk. |
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| 12-Aug-2008 12:10 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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yuppers. don't buy all at one shot. support is at 78.5. just wait for it to bottom out. anomaly on the charts: abandoned baby formed with today's action. note: the current rise of the USD is atypical. versus the Euro, it rose 500 pips in 3 days from 7th to 10th aug without a retracement, and a further 200 pips from yest to day. (the EU traders were howling.  )
in S$ comparison: last wed, the USD-S$ was 1.38. By friday, it was 1.4. Yest, it was 1.4112. So if you factor in the exchg rate, the "dip" is actually much less steep than it appears. just wait til friday to see what next to do lah. |
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| 11-Aug-2008 20:27 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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good article, cwquah. shows the massive amount of manipulation that occurs in markets.  (or ok, we'll just call it the flow of big money. hehe.)
these are the kind of things that happen all over the world, really. s'porean investors especially need to watch out, ours is a much smaller market, and also because we don't exactly have recourse if a counter you bought dropped 50% in one week. We don't ban shorting here; neither do we have a case if a stock collapses. our authorities really can't (or won't) protect the little people (apart from sending useless queries, and giving measly fines of 5k-15k to offending BBs. Imagine. 5k. To people who can throw 100 lots of cosco at one shot. what a joke.  ). Hence, the little people need to learn to arm and protect themselves in the market. 
and the second thing we learn about the bear sterns incident, which is what i've always been saying: that there's a very big difference between a company, and its stock. Perception is what rules the latter. |
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| 11-Aug-2008 14:50 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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nah, jchongll, i don't think there's such a thing as not being bright enough. what i'm trying to pass on is not easy to understand; especially for retailers, who are outside of the inner circle and not privy to BB minds. So it does take a lot of time. Plus need to change mindset about what trading/investing is all about. So it isn't a once-off or fast process. Gotta think longterm and be determined to stick to it.
i do know my warnings are very blink-and-you'll-miss-it, and am rather sorry for that. but they have to be so out of necessity, so it's really a no-choice scenario. 
actually, if you suddenly find me "appearing" a lot in a counter, it's a warning signal usually.
and i'll give a sixth warning for cosco now: from BUSD and queue track, it appears that lots are being stacked up for a fall again. 235 and 216 are critical levels. 216 is the nov 06 support, if that breaks, say hello to 165. I believe 235 will be easily taken out sometime this week. |
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| 11-Aug-2008 13:21 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hm. and one more thing: i don't like telling people what to do, since then, as investors, they'd be liable to just abdicate responsibility to you. That'd be a crippled mind. The aim is that each investor learns to become independent. They must make their own buy/sell calls. which is why i'm more keen that each small fry learns technicals themselves (or FA, or macros, or psychology); so that they can survive on their own. Independence is key. So past patterns is very important in understanding the future, in learning about probabilities; the characteristics of a counter, how it moves; the patterns. From these you are expected to derive the tactics of the BBs yourselves; because that is something that cannot be discussed in the open. Already, few courses here teach using actual examples, much less offer cautions/recommendations. Of course, if you're the kinda person who just goes "Ahhhh, don't talk crap! just tell me buy or sell!" then hehe, apologies, the elfin lessons aren't for you.
I do know my 'cautions' on various counters may be very subtle, a blink-and-you-miss-it, but then, this is an open forum with 16,000 members, and countless other unknown members of the public reading. I can't be overt. As it is, methinks i'm too overt already. Attention is not a good thing if you want to survive in the game. 
i also think i'm nuts to want to try educating small fries instead of standing on the side of the BBs.
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| 11-Aug-2008 13:11 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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erm, if you've read the cosco thread, i gave multiple warnings on it already (just backtrack and check my posts): technical cautions on cosco was given by me on: 5th Aug 1206 hr and 5th Aug 1133 hr @ px of 2.74. 4th Aug 1529 hr @ px of 2.97 (a key warning that it wouldn't kill people to wait at least one day if they wanted to buy cosco.) and much earlier, the warnings that the rebounds were merely technical, that once the BBs issue buy calls, that means it is time to sell. respectively on 20 jun 1940 hr @ px of 334. 19 jun 1140 hr @ px of 337. That's five different warnings given in the space of 7 weeks, for one counter, which i'm not even vested in. (-_-").... How much more obvious am i suppose to get? Surely you can't expect me to be putting BUY! and SELL! calls. That'd definitely attract BB attention to move the counter the other way. Besides, the entire aim is to teach people HOW to invest, and not to give tips like some coffeeshop auntie. That only breeds a lazy mentality. cheers. |
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| 11-Aug-2008 12:18 |
Others
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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small lesson for the day: how to calculate if it's a cut, or worth risking a DCA, assuming you didn't stop loss at an early stage. (ie, remedial action). Coscocorp being the example, since it recently nosedived. If you look at the three year, weekly charts for cosco: derive the supports as per i've shown on the STE thread before. 1) 215 is the next support, below of which is 165. Meanwhile, for cosco to have an actual attempt at survival, it has to break 2.7, preferably 2.8. So that it can regain to 3++ glory. 2) Using today's market depth data, determine the pivots as well. 3) Using rough calculations of the lots involved in the Q: To dive the counter to 215--ie, the point beyond which we can consider it to be beyond redemption--will require just about $2.5mil (2350 as the pivot pt), while to raise the counter so that it has potential of 'rebirth', would require at least $12mil (pivot = 2500). ----------- hence by technicals, cosco warrants a cut rather than a DCA. personally, by instinct and precedence, i think they may have played this counter dead. |
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| 09-Aug-2008 16:44 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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nah, you don't expect to be repaid. you do, however, expect not to be abused, used or exploited. and worser, treated like a fool after that. the natural state of human nature is selfishness, not kindness. kindness is learnt behaviour. it is something you can see on the face of a person; and it is beautiful, precisely because it is not human.
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| 09-Aug-2008 16:41 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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hm. i'll say this tho: if there's one person under whom the company can go far, it's Lu. he's very young to have come so far. |
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| 09-Aug-2008 16:33 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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o8*&($@&#)............ typed a whole long reply but it kena erased. argh. in brief: bengster, i wasn't meaning you when i said insider info. you've been posting here and in a consistent call for far too long for it to be insider; plus, you are too detailed on clinical trials and all that, which if you did have inside info, you'd not bother to do so. so full respects to you for that.
my original background is in the biomedical field, with key specialisation in pioneering medical diagnostics; so i know about patents, trials and all that. leaving aside TA, esp since i know which cartel is running this counter; focusing on FA and macros: their product does show a lot of promise, but between successful clinical trial to practical sales--how many hospitals will use it? what are they pricing it at? how will patients take to it?---there's a whole lot of unknowns. plus, who's to say another new company won't come up with the next new thing? This is a highly competitive field. until it is proven, it is merely hope. M&A of Abott and Conor took place in 06-07. Those were the boom years for M&As, esp biomeds (due to their size), when the world was, as the phrase went, "awash in liquidity." For biosensors to have an M&A in a bad global climate, their product has to be justifiably good. The takeover company must also be a coy that has a lot of cash. Most US pharmas are in a loss state/reduced growth forecast due to the bad US climate. If an M&A does occur tho, which i should hope, for the sakes of the investors here, then takeover premium is a standard 25% of last five trading days, which pegs biosensors at about 75c. not a bad profit for those who bought at 46c. (assuming 12 aug is when they'll announce it) Just some of the points to watch out for. The fact that does it for me at the end of the day: BBs do not give shit about fundamentals; it is merely a tool for them to play up or down the market. So what fundamental investors risk in this small market is that a counter runs up, they hold and hold and hold, while BBs ramp and dump, leaving them holding onto it. Who cries then? There is a very big difference between a company and the stock of the company. So yea. All due respect to you bengster; you're one of the most thorough investors i've seen in a long time, which is a very good thing. Pls note that i'm not for or against this counter.
for me, personally, i'm much more cold-hearted and rational than that: At the end of the day, there is no such thing as a good stock or a bad stock for me: there is only one in which you make money, and one in which you make loss. Which is it, is what determines an investor's success. The rest is sound and fury. And this is how the market works, to me. cheers! |
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| 08-Aug-2008 17:21 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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STI: 2807.54. down 27.17 pts for today. Toto....Toto.....
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| 08-Aug-2008 17:10 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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hmm...actually, i don't think gold will keep going down for long. it's oversold already. one reason why the px looks lower is because the USD has strengthened to about S$1.38. Previously it was about S$1.35 just last month. in other words, this current ~US85 is worth about US$87.5 previously. ie, it's actually still on its support and not broken below. that's why i gave the earlier point to note your exchg rate at pt of buy and sell. so two factors to pay attention to, for this counter: actual px, and exchg rate. |
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| 08-Aug-2008 16:30 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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just fyi: 1st buy for gold was actually about 85.5-86.5, because that's the pivot. ie, gold may rebound up from there, or it may dip further. 2nd buy should preferably be for sub 84. wait for the bottoming turn up to trigger. impt: pls note your exchange rate at pt of buy and sell. the USD is strengthening, so even if gold appears to dip, you may be on profit. |
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do the two points really matter, CWQuah?
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