Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 17-Aug-2008 22:50 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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haha, jj, can't just talk about property as guarantee. nothing's ever guaranteed. timing matters a lot. she just happened to buy and sell at the right time: go ask any of those who are stuck trying to flip their en-bloc props now. haha. most of the rich invest by leaving it to other people. very few manage their own funds. and the fact is, they have so much money that even if they just put into a cash deposit, the interest would be enough for daily living already. it's a different class altogether; completely unrealistic for other folks to follow. wealth is made by business and investing and property. or in singapore, by being part of the ruling government. 
you don't get wealthy by being an employee. |
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| 17-Aug-2008 22:43 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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thanks for the comments, mckean and stupidfool. i don't think anyone would allow that first winnings thing tho: for the sole reason that once people win, they'd want to keep it all for themselves! 
and ipunter, with all due respect, i'd appreciate it if you would NOT peddle your genie tutorials in my thread, thank you.
stupidfool, it all depends. 95% of traders lose*, we have to be realistic about that. Actually if you ask me, a large part of it is personality driven. Never go against the trend is what's oft quoted; the other thing they don't say: never go against your own personality. Most people aren't cut out for rapid trading. Personally, cos i'm interested in psychology; I use Jungian theory to read a person, and thereby, their strengths and weaknesses, and from there (if we're talking about the markets), the trading profile. Am very interested in psychology, actually. the MBTI is what's used by PSC to sieve out their top scholars (and it's what we teach them in top schools, too; which is why elite school students will always have an edge over neighbourhood ones. hehe); and what MNCs use to hire their employees. The reasoning is that people are hired by ability, but fired for 'fit'. So personality testing allows a testing of the 'fit' even before a person enters the workplace. The MBTI is based on Carl Jung's theory of cognitive functions. Imminently useful. Have used it before to help kids find themselves, suitable careers and all that.  Can be applied to trading/investing profiles.
*leaving aside those traders who are trading via insider tips/as part of cartels. those, frankly, you can't put it down to skill; it's just pure money and connections. wouldn't take an idiot to make money if you have such 'backing'. |
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| 17-Aug-2008 16:17 |
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Wine investment
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ooh, alcohol!! 
normally you have to buy in cases, and it's stored in a warehouse. if you have a proper cellar/wine fridge, you can opt to keep it yourself too. i think the best thing about wine investment is that, if the px goes down, you can literally liquidate your investment. 
for champs, go for the DPs (DP 2002 is apparently very good); if you like aussie reds, take the penfolds grange range or if you can get your hands on it, the grant burge's holy trinity. 
i think i'd make a bad wine investor, primarily because most of my investment will be going this way: 
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| 17-Aug-2008 16:06 |
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Oil Price
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hi, i meant to say the US markets/USD will rally for november. After the election, global markets are likely to be down. look at all the bad news coming out of europe and asia/japan. Key data to watch this week are the Euro zone numbers for Zew and PMI. US PPI and building permits on tues, bernanke speaks on fri: this is likely to send the USD up, hence DJIA up. I have no clue between now and then, though. there has to be a slight down somewhere for them. Note: i don't believe the STI will follow the DJIA up, however. I think the STI has a greater chance of hitting 2,680 than 3,000 in the coming weeks. Global money is basically net out of Asia, out of long commods, into Dollar, short commods.--> a major supporting of the US for its economy. Any rise of the STi is going to be hit back by stale bulls rushing to get out; which means we'll likely ping up and down in a narrow range til all the stale bulls are out. What will spur the DJIA to 12,500 is if oil breaches 110 and stays there (ie, gold is going down below the 782.5 support.) Oil may rise after the beijing olympics though: for the main reason that China stopped half its factories for the ollies, and so, their consumption is likely to pick up post-olly. haha. It's as clear as mud. Either go long term (slow and DCA) or intraday. |
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| 17-Aug-2008 15:19 |
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Oil Price
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Note that the major player for oil is Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs, after calling for oil at 170-200 in their reports, instead reversed their calls and went short on oil from its peak of US$147. They shorted oil from 140s-130s. They've majorly bought the dollar instead, after issuing sell calls for it publicly. Which is why, follow their walk, not their talk. So what do the charts say: support for euro/USD is at 1.4417, currently 1.4680. Oil is at 113. So i'd peg the support for oil at 105. Whatever it is, the picture is down for oil and consequently, gold, til end nov at least. Because the market never goes down in the year of a US election. So personally, i'm expecting DJIA 12,500, oil 105. The DJIA can be propped up using forex and commodities; since it's a race to the bottom for the global currencies and markets now. At abt the time of the US election is their rally. The question is gold. The other question is, between now and then, what? |
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| 17-Aug-2008 15:10 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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i've actually been gathering feedback. so would like to hear actually: what's the benefits of those courses, and what are they lacking in? if we can derive a common consensus, then we can create a course unique to SJ, unique to the participants' needs. Frankly, i think 2.5-3k is too much to pay for a one/two day course that only teaches generalities but not the finer details needed to survive. esp in this market. |
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| 15-Aug-2008 22:12 |
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Singapore got chance for medal at Table Tennis!
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haha, anytime s'pore wins something, this will inevitably come up. but let's put it this way: we're all immigrants here. just a matter of which generation. and secondly, those singaporeans who've been here for generations: if your kid told you, "daddy/mummy, i want to be in the olympics." What will you tell him? "GO AND STUDY, DON'T DREAM NONSENSE!" And this, is why we need to import foreign talent. They have the hunger, drive and determination we lack. So the shame isn't on the women paddlers: if anyone watched them play, they deserve their finals placing all the way. The shame is on a country that doesn't dare to dream big, that curtails its children from dreaming differently, but will instead import people who dare to dream. And snipe at those who achieve a dream. Meanwhile, can we put aside that tedious cynicism and celebrate it for what it is worth: a medal hardfought and won.  Go, Table Tennis Team!!!
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| 15-Aug-2008 16:37 |
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Singapore got chance for medal at Table Tennis!
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ahhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!! we won we won we won!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! go s'pore!!! 
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| 15-Aug-2008 16:17 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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general note on current market: STI at crucial pt of 2,800. note that as this is a pivot point (btwn 2,600 and 3,000), it means it is capable of movement in either direction. A lot of people automatically assume that once a counter/index hits a "support", it means it will rebound. This is not necessarily true. If you look at the crash of the Euro versus the USD in the past 2 weeks, you can see that a pivot point is exactly that: even chance of moving in either direction. Which direction is more likely, will be determined by other signals. Until then, a reaching of a pivot level is not a signal to buy nor sell: it's only a signal to watch. You buy/sell only on the first turn after the pivot. That may be an up or a down. Meanwhile, it's back to table tennis.
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| 15-Aug-2008 14:25 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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it's just very odd. the buys are outweighing the sells every single day since mon, but the px is being driven down. either they're shocking it down to accumulate, or someone's unwinding positions. in light of macros tho, the bet is still on gold. (esp if they start issuing reports that gold is headed down. )
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| 15-Aug-2008 14:17 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hey, singaporegal's here! 
yuppers, good article, ed88ks. 
so to summarise it: 1) Always have a plan, and a contingency plan 2) Never go against the market 3) never go against your own personality. And yea, not having a position is also a position. Gotta remember, be a live chicken, not a dead tiger!
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| 15-Aug-2008 10:50 |
GLD USD
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Gold going up this year?
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update on the counter: relax and go slow. cos 78.5 may trigger some automated sells. tech support is 65 if we were to be realistic. one thing doesn't make sense though: px has been dropping but all the way, it's large buys this week. new entrant to this counter: ML. (usual players Citi and MS). So there's three foreigners (mainly) controlling this counter now. If you look at market depth, the block consecutive lots of 2k-7k lots on both buy and sell queues belong to the BBs (my guess is automated). that's how they control the px of gold. 18-22k lots on both buy and sell queues on average each day. ie, they use ~USD$3mil to control this counter every day. quirky tip/fun fact of the day: Citi and MS (actually, ML too) are very pantang. If you queue at a px ending with an 8, you're likely to get it. eg, 78.38, 81.08 etcetc. The one px they can't resist is 88.88.
fyi only. |
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| 15-Aug-2008 10:33 |
COSCO SHP SG
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CoscoCorp
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wldn't recommend a buy for cosco unless it can clear 2.44 (the close of its previous fall). o/w, the risk of 217 is still more likely than an equivalent rise. |
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| 14-Aug-2008 00:24 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yuppers to trader88, CWQuah and livermore. And livermore, i believe you may have mistaken my words: i didn't say i believed that SPC = crude, what i said was that was what the market believes.
it's the point i'm trying to make: in business sense, we know we're right: all the points you guys raised are the correct ones. plus, few retail investors know that SPC's biz is actually far more complicated, if you've read their AR. it's divided into different segments. upstream for one may actually mean downstream for the other; that is how they hedge their position. But knowing business sense of a company, and seeing it applied in practice with its stock price, are two different things.
Look at market movement. Correlate the two graphs of SPC and crude. What do you see? As long as in people's mind, the simplistic equation is crude = SPC, then, that's exactly how the stock will move. btw, this thread isn't just for me. If other veterans and market experts would like to share, or post differing opinions, please do so. It's best for learning this way.
The only thing i ask is that we avoid all the name calling, onesupmanship and such-like that goes on in some other threads, please.
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| 13-Aug-2008 16:15 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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my thought is guessing. doesn't quite matter though, because what is commonly believed is what will turn sentiment. 
like SPC. by right it's a major refinery. ie, they buy crude oil to refine it, and then sell it. So by right, oil px up, SPC down; oil px down, SPC up. But in local investors' minds, SPC = Crude Oil play. Hence, Oil up => SPC up, Oil down => SPC down. there's market "logic" for you.
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| 13-Aug-2008 16:08 |
Biosensors
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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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moral of the :idea: story: TRUST NO ONE. Always make up your own mind. Also agree with the forumer who posted earlier: Why is bengster getting the blame everytime biosensors goes down? After all, no one asked people reading the forum to buy/sell on his words alone. And maxximo, a run up from 46c to 68.5c should not in any way be considered a disappointment. (-_-")....what would have been unrealistic would be if the px continued to go up and up and up. No stock moves in a straight line. Besides, it's a classic buy on rumor sell on news phenomenon. That's what all the techies here (not the people who are just randomly shouting for it to go down/with agenda) were saying. |
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| 13-Aug-2008 15:16 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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edit: forgot timeline. I give the CPOs til monday latest to end their current uptrend. Contra T+3 logic. Classic trap. |
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| 13-Aug-2008 15:15 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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practical application lesson for today. same issue of tandem counters/sectorial plays. Probability of a rampup being a real rebound, or a trap: One way of telling. Crude oil affects the CPO plays, theirs is a proportionate relationship. ie, px of crude oil (or SPC--which is another story) goes up, CPO plays should go up. Crude down, CPO down. But what do we have currently? Crude down, CPO plays up. (CPO plays here: Wilmar, Indoagri, GAr, Firstres). As well as news/analysts release that CPO is going to go up.
Think logically. Does it make sense? CPOs go up because price of crude is rising, hence, people switch to alternative fuel. but if crude price is down, why will people look for alternatives? Esp when oil has fallen from 147 per barrel to now, abt 113. So the logical conclusion: because they are breaking their normal relationship, it is a false rally in the CPOs. Ie, if you're in the CPOs, it should be a fast scalp, nothing more. And this is a forward prediction. So lets see if right or wrong.
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| 13-Aug-2008 14:59 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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careful of the rise in the CPOs. |
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| 13-Aug-2008 11:18 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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thanks all for the many comments. :) will try to respond to all, apologies if i leave some out. Baseer. creating the charts and uploading them takes me more time than making a buy/sell decision. :P Nostradamus is right: sectorial plays are governed by macros. So id all the stocks in one sector, pay attention to the macro factor (eg, px of crude oil). This is essentially what i call tandem plays. Usually, there'll be a market leader, that'll move first. I call this stock the weather vane or lead indicator. When it moves, it's a signal that the other counters are likely to move. Watch out for laggards that don't conform tho, even if they're in the same sector. Also, for tandem plays that may not seem so obvious at the start. Eg, SIA Engg. 70% of its biz is from SIA. So if crude oil goes up, what is SIA Engg's movement? ten4one: agreed. Which is why my focus has always been on application. Theory alone is pointless. However, one does need to know some facts first tho. As Mark Twain said, "Get the facts right first. Distort them later."
ipunter: low vol falls are usually consequent leakage of the initial fall on high vol. I can't think of a single stock that has fallen ONLY on low vol, and never rebounded. Perhaps you may like to share an example? :) yuppers, agreed on the other point: never fall in love with a stock. Which is linked to the other idea: differentiate between a stock and its company. Just because you 'love' the company, doesn't mean its stock price will reward you. Similarly, just because a company is doing well/badly, doesn't mean its stock price is proportionate. waverly: Essentially, if you see large lots moving one way, don't try to pre-empt the bottom and go in the other way. Let them finish selling first. Eg, cosco at 2.97 was "cheap". But blatantly, sell lots overweighed buys. Again at 2.78, again at 2.43. If you'd went in cos you think it's "cheap" (even when from BUSD you can see it's major sell for the large lots traded), that's going against the BBs. or put it in dollar value: you have, say, 100,000. A single BB has 1.5mil. Who's going to win? It pays to know our place as small fries, and to play as small fries, and not BBs. Question 2 has to remain sealed on open forums. 
3) BUSD patterns: buy up sell down patterns. The in depth data per day which shows no: of lots bought/sold at each exact px and min. You need this raw data to track BB patterns. From this, if you're good enough, you can even id which house is playing what counter. Altho, if you ask me, less impt to know the identity of the BB, more impt to know which way the counter is going. Sometimes, too much info can kill decision making. 4) Avoid going against the BB. Use counterparty only ifyou're kay-poh enough to want to know more. hehe. The tags are different, basically.
Note: the most impt of everything is the tactics of the BB, because they are what forms the technicals. BBs don't need or care to know about FA or TA, because well, they set the TA! But as small fries, that's why TA is all the more impt for survival.
Finally, i know what and how the BBs operate, but i will not, however, 'sell' them out. Not the locals, at least. The foreigners, i say they're fair game.
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