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Is Biosensors a good buy?
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bengster68
Master |
13-Aug-2008 19:31
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Hi Maxximo, LEADERS is the most important event to this company. It will be the most historical moment for this company. LEADERS is far more important than CE Mark. Why? Because a lot of other Tom, Dick or Harry DESs can get their CE Mark but not many can show top class clinical results. Taxus got their CE Mark. Even Conor's Costar got their CE Mark. How the hell did Costar ever get their CE Mark but when it comes to Randomised Control Trial (RCT), the stent just totally cannot make it. LEADERS is a very massive real world trial (with very loose patient criteria) unlike many other RCTs that we see (as per description by Mr Investor last month). The looser the patient criteria, the more challenging the trial becomes. You really get all the sorts of "sick chicken" instead of "mildly sick chickens". It is only thru a massive scale RCT that your DES can be proven and respected. M&A or not solely depends on LEADERS trial. If average performance only (on par with Cypher's performance), no M&A chance. If there is a clear cut performance superiority, very very high M&A chance. Cypher is a much better stent than Taxus (by virtue of using Sirolimus drug which is very potent anti-proliferative/ restentosis drug) so it is considered a "Gold Standard" as compared to Taxus. Any DES can beat Taxus but to beat Cypher, you really need to have a lot of substance. If Biomatrix can beat Cypher, Biomatrix can be considered to be The Best Of The Best. In fact, i would focus more on mid-Oct's TCT2008 whereby 12 months data will be presented, there is an OCT scan on endothlialisation (a very important vessel recovery process which is highly correlated to late-thrombosis problems). Late stenting events like late-thrombosis still a very highly feared problem as 50% of the time it causes death. The ARC definition of late thrombosis means 1 to 12 month after stent implant. This means an extra 3 months data covering late-thrombosis duration. Actually very late thrombosis (beyond 1 year) is also a closely watched data. Plus, in TCT2008, Terumo will be presenting their NOBORI JAPAN data (also Biomatrix against Cypher) so there will be more show to see and more Lau Kwee for JNJ. Biomatrix sales need time to grow. A lot of key countries still not launched yet. Plus, small Asian company with small scale clinical data (STEALTH1, NOBORI 1 phase 1 and 2) so not very recognised yet. Hopefully LEADERS results will change that perception once and for all and set this company into an unstoppable big break. Get the sales rolling in and start capturing market share, winning tenders for supply of DESs in hospital groups, nominated as the preferred DES brand for hospital groups' proceurement, becoming the top selling DES brand in say Japan market (bring in a lot of recognition), etc. Equity market very bad lah. Plus, a lot of punters don't appreciate or know the true value of Proprietary IPs, patents and top class clinical results. Give any medical device MNC US$1B cash to burn and 5 years time, i think most likely they cannot come out with what BIG can achieve on these intangible aspects. Thats why MNCs do M&A. Thats why Abbott totally scrap their in-house Zomaxx DES R&D program (they spent hundreds of millions already on Zomaxx already) and forked out US$4.1B cash to pay for Xience R&D program. I think there is very very huge value in BIG's intangibles that the market is not giving due recognition. To be the number one global DES leader, these intangibles are the all important pre-requisites. For an MNC to have The Best Of The Best DES technology is the main selling point. That is they are challenging each other with "Stent Wars". All the MNCs have financial power, branding, marketing, distribution, connections at regulatory approvals, etc. The only difference is clinical trial results and they will try to out-do each other. Having the Best Of The Best DES will be the main decideing factor who will dominate the DES industry. When people watch Olympics, they focus on how many Gold medals a country won. People don't quite bother about Silver or Bronze medals. Gold medal is a much more prized performance recognition and should fetch a very high premium. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
13-Aug-2008 16:08
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moral of the :idea: story: TRUST NO ONE. Always make up your own mind. Also agree with the forumer who posted earlier: Why is bengster getting the blame everytime biosensors goes down? After all, no one asked people reading the forum to buy/sell on his words alone. And maxximo, a run up from 46c to 68.5c should not in any way be considered a disappointment. (-_-")....what would have been unrealistic would be if the px continued to go up and up and up. No stock moves in a straight line. Besides, it's a classic buy on rumor sell on news phenomenon. That's what all the techies here (not the people who are just randomly shouting for it to go down/with agenda) were saying. |
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Maxximo
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13-Aug-2008 15:55
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Thanks for sharing Bengster68. Understand that the Leaders trial result is coming out on the 1 - 3 Sept ..... Supposingly that the results is good as BIG mgmt believed ... how does this going to help BIG in the short term ... By the way, is there any further trial other than this ...... Is this trial result a key factor for the financial investor/fund house may be waiting to see before they decide whether to BUY into BIG or not ???? Quite dissappointed with the current price even after a good 1st Qtr results ..... this really wears down alot of investors confidence in BIG's future share price movement. Do you mind to share with the forumer here on what is your afterthought after this Q1 results ..... ( i know ... u are & will, always be so optimisstic with BIG)..... Cheers to the fucking dissappointing price movement .........
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Maxximo
Member |
13-Aug-2008 15:39
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Just to share ..... This OCBC fellow holds 1000 shares of BIG .... not too bad lah .. at least he hold something ..... heehee ...... ( there is a declaration on this in the report if you read further down ) .... Dun know got print wrongly or not .... maybe is 1000 lots ... hahaha Cheers .....
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:idea:
Member |
13-Aug-2008 15:00
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I got this email from a CNA friend. Guess who is the BRO mentioned here?! [quote] Be VERY CAUTIOUS with those BROs you though could make you rich... [/quote]
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
13-Aug-2008 13:51
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OCBC report.. http://www.ocbcresearch.com/pdf_reports/company/Biosensors-080813-OIR.pdf |
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bengster68
Master |
13-Aug-2008 12:23
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Hi Maxximo, if JWMS deal don't pull thru, BIG still got 50% anyway. Just that the sales of JWMS cannot be consolidated into BIG Group sales. However, there will still be 50% attributable profit from JWMS. During Q1, JWMS contributed only US$1.5m of attributable profit to BIG which is very surprisingly low to me. The funny thing is although sales of JWMS is increasing, their net profit contribution is decreasing. Net margins are decreasing (could be due to price competition?). I suspect JWMS could also be spending heavily in marketing/selling expenses to capture more China DES market share in the long run. Capturing market share is the most important thing to do now for JWMS. Also, there could be some form of R&D expense since JWMS completed a 2,000 patient CREATE trial which should be a heavy clinical R&D investment. Plus, tax expenses for JWMS could be increasing. 2006 and 2007 is tax free for JWMS, 2008 and 2009 is at half the tax due to rebates. 2010 and beyond is suppose to be taxed at full rate. I beg to differ on the company's view that without the other 50% of JWMS, BIG will continue to make losses for the next few quarters. There will be impact on the BIG's earnings but its not so severe as BIG already has 50%. Is the extra US$2m per quarter very huge impact? I look at the JWMS deal as BIG buying into earnings but it is quite dilutive to shareholdings, esp the second JWMS deal. The key selling point of having the whole of JWMS is better China distribution network for launch of future products. It is very difficult to establish a strong distribution network in China all by yourself. This is the beauty of JWMS. They already have the network and they are already making money selling DES. But JWMS don't have the technology. BIG has the technology and BIG is the Best of The Best in DES technology. From M&A angle, having the whole of JWMS makes BIG an even more attractive target. If in the event the second 50% JWMS deal didn't go thru, BIG may do a licensing cum royalty deal with JWMS since they are using BIG's DES technology and patent without a formal licensing agreement (S-stent BMS, PLA biodegradable polymer, Limus drug). So BIG will take some royalty of EXCEL DES's sales first before the remaining net profit is attributed between WeiGao and BIG at 50:50. BIG may also introduce Biomatrix into China using JWMS as a distributor. I believe there are already other medical device players with very strong distribution network in China very keen to be distributor of Biomatrix in China and talking to BIG already. But obviously JWMS is the prefered choice of BIG but definitely not the one and only choice. Never depend on only one party for business planning purposes. There has to be several other options available. Just my views. |
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Centaur
Veteran |
13-Aug-2008 11:20
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The emphasis is on the one-time non-recurring profit of USD 40mil, after removing this USD 40mil plus the extraordinary items of restructuring costs of USD 4.5mil and tax or around USD 10mil, BIG just barely make it. I think the sales of its stent is slightly below expectations considering the amount they spent on sales and marketing - went up 70%. Assuming operating expenses remains at 20mil for next half, product revenue will need to increase by at least 10% (should not be a problem) before BIG can breakeven for its profit from operations. Of course, poor market sentiments doesn't help especially when STI broke the psychological barrier of 2,800pts. Wrong timing again. Duh.. | ||
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jchongll
Member |
13-Aug-2008 10:24
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its down now.... the market not reacting to the good news.... 
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A02041315
Senior |
13-Aug-2008 10:07
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Best time to buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!BIG!!!!!!!!CHEONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!      Loss money worry,Make money liao also worry??????????????????????????
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allright
Senior |
13-Aug-2008 08:57
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Fr summary of OCBC Investment Research Pte Ltd Biosensors International Group: Dazzling 1Q09 |
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jackjames
Elite |
13-Aug-2008 08:16
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will it break 0.69 today? or those contra players (who punt on good news), doing contra and sell on news today ? either way, Biosensor has gone up more than 30% in just few weeks time... that is so much better compared to other counters, that is a fact .:) |
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
12-Aug-2008 23:44
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What do you make out of the CEO's reply on M&A offers? One analyst asked, "Has anyone approached you with any M&A offers" to which Mr. Kleine replied that he has met and talked with his competitor out in the field but he decline to comment on M&A offers. I was wondering why does he need to even say that he has met and talked with them. He is not obliged to say that at all.. He could have just replied.. "I cannot comment on this issue". But strange that he had to add "he has met and talked with his competitors..!". Why try to lead with some hints then cutoff abruptly. Is he hinting something..? If there was no M&A discussion, he has two options to answer. A simple "No" or "cannot comment". Anyway, for what reason does he need to meet his competitor..? Any comments..? |
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Maxximo
Member |
12-Aug-2008 23:33
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Bengster68, What is your take on the JWMS?? And their alternative plan ...... No doubts that the 1st Qtr results is fantastic and the future is bright (long term) ... but from what the commentary reports for the next 12 months from their reports is still quite worrying especially if you read carefully on the last 2 paragraph on what if JWMS plan don't pull thru ..... below is abstracted from BIG reports on the last item No.10. How come no one ask him on the below comments being made ... sounds like a cover backside remarks ....... _________________________________________________________________________ 10. A commentary at the date of the announcement of the significant trends and competitive conditions of the industry in which the group operates and any known factors or events that may affect the group in the next reporting period and the next 12 months.
While the Company experienced a very high level of profitability this quarter due to the one-time license revision payment from Terumo, the Company’s primary objective for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2009 remains continued product sales growth. In the event that the JWMS transaction is not completed, the Company believes that future quarters for fiscal 2009 will not be profitable, but as product sales continue to grow and the restructuring efforts are completed, profitability levels should improve over the course of the year. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If JWMS dun pull thru .... FY09 will still be in the red man ........ so, you think financial institution still wanna to come in so early ....... Please do correct me if my interpretation is wrong (I hope I'm wrong). JWMS is very important and i kind of dun like the CEO way of using the word "hopeful' that the aquistition will still went thru .... he didn't even gave details on the progress ..... Anyway ..... let see how the price will move tomorrow ...... Cheers. Me vested too and long long time liao ...... Above not an inducement to trade.
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bengster68
Master |
12-Aug-2008 23:21
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Biosensors' net profit more than doubles on-year to US$16.5m By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 12 August 2008 2021 hrs SINGAPORE: Biosensors International Group has reported a net profit of US$16.5 million for its fiscal first quarter – more than double the same period a year ago. Total revenue jumped by 300 per cent to just over US$58 million, boosted by the full recognition of US$40 million received from Terumo Corporation from a previously announced modification of an existing licensing agreement between the two parties. Biosensors said it would use the US$40 million to fund future sales growth and product development. Product revenues alone for the medical device company hit a record US$17.1 million, boosted by sales of its Bio-matrix drug-eluting stent. Biosensors said it plans to pursue the market aggressively in the coming quarters by drawing on its sales infrastructure and distribution network. The company has downsized its US activities of late, and transferred its activities to Asia and Europe. |
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bengster68
Master |
12-Aug-2008 23:00
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I said before this company has already turned around and is already profitable. The US$40m is not about cooking books. The money is already in BIG's bank accounts. When US$40m is already in your bank account and you recognise it in full, its perfectly ok. Licensing and royalties are part of the main business model of BIG. We debated about this US$40m before and yes, i think it should be recognised immediately as long as the money is already in the bag. Terumo didn't pay BIG US$8m per year. Its US$40m cash at one go. So the accounting treatment now is correct. I expect many more such large lump sum tens of millions per deal licensing revenue as this company has many existing licensees, potential new licensees, so many newer generation DES products, divided into so many territories and there can always be licensing extension deals at the request of the licensees due to potential M&A chances. If JNJ ever buy over BIG, licensees will never be able to extend their licensing duration (5 year only) and BIG's DES technology should be good for 10 years. Absolutely no other stent developer come close to BIG's DES technology. | ||
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PensionAlterEgo
Member |
12-Aug-2008 22:23
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Taken from their press release.. Licensing revenue in 1Q FY09 included the full recognition of US$40.0 million received from Terumo Corporation (“Terumo”) as a result of a previously announced modification of an existing licensing agreement between Biosensors and Terumo. In the 22 April 2008 announcement, the Company indicated that the revenue would be recognized over the life of the licensing agreement. Upon further review, the Company determined that recognition of the entire US$40.0 million in 1Q FY09 would be a more appropriate accounting treatment under the principles of the International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). | ||
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Fishcake
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12-Aug-2008 21:55
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i'm supporter of BIG too, but I'm still worry on the financial. 1st qtr is showing a profit of $16.4m is mainly due to the 1-time payment from Terumo (see announcement dd 22 Apr). However, based on that announcement, the $40m was supposed to be recognized over a period of 5-years. So, I'm wondering why it is showing up in full in Q1. Is there any accounting irregularity?
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bengster68
Master |
12-Aug-2008 20:11
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Yap i think got more licensing money to come. From existing Japan market, potential licensing extension deals (licensees are worried in case this company kena takeover). Biomatrix USA territory not licensed out yet. Also, BIG has Bio-flex, Biomatrix-Freedom, Biolimus ABSORB DES (CE market, Japan market, USA market) all not licensed out yet. Licensing is actually a very big part of this company and the amount involved in any one such deal usually involve tens of millions. After licensing, there are royalties as well. I think next FY onwards, we should see very strong royalty revenue due to Nobori's Japan approval.
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bengster68
Master |
12-Aug-2008 20:03
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Reported US$17m profit for Q1. Don't know why there was such a heavy tax charge of US$10m. Personally Im disappointed with Biomatrix sales but this sales figure is in line with market expectations and BIG's earlier forecast. Probably a lot of large countries like France, Korea, Australia, China, etc still yet to launch Biomatrix. I think have to wait a couple of quarters to see sales really picking up. I hope LEADERS results will be stunningly good (like what we see in other smaller scale trials) and bring in more sales for Biomatrix. There were some more "one-off expenses" like paper loss in value of derivatives (I believe its Xtent's option value) and restructuring of USA and Europe operations. This restructuring exercise is suppose to save some operating cost in FY2009 onwards. | ||
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