Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 26-Dec-2006 00:18 |
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haha...iPunter and rogue_trader, i see i was right when i said you two are risk takers and not opposed to shorting counters. haha. hats off to you two man! :) oh ok i don't havta do cfd then. i currently trade by proxy (buy via someone else) so it's pretty much scriptless and all for me. just transfer money can already. haha. thanks for the info you two, i'll definitely keep it in mind! and eh?? blur liao...who or what's ivy? |
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| 25-Dec-2006 22:38 |
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heya...my internet access is sooo screwy. argh. i take it you mean contracts for differences? don't have an online trading acct currently; got a real, live (flesh and blood! haha) broker only. i act don't do any kind of margin trading; back up all my trades with solid cash; thus far 'specialise' in trading long only. partly 'cos of work reasons. not much time to monitor. next year start new job too. open to the option tho. i need some clarification: cfd is just like normal trading, just that you don't actually pay up until you sell (long), or buy (shortsell)? haha, what do ya rec on it? |
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| 25-Dec-2006 20:02 |
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heya.. iPunter...appears this elf ain't too good at the tarot, no? ;) no worries, anyhow. :) on a more serious note, was going to trade aggressively next year actually (ie, more short-term, and on TA). so any guidance you can provide there would be much appreciated. :) |
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| 25-Dec-2006 14:50 |
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iPunter....haha, you sound merrily boozy. haha. :) Livermore, no prob. Been rereading the posts. Seems to me as though you've made a few wrong calls on a few counters and are casting about for fresh leads now. i'm softhearted. heh heh. so... ..i've done both institutional and retail fund mgmt before, for the latter we're required to profile our clients based on their risk appetite and suggest appropriate investment strats for them. Now i've never met you face-to-face, but if i were to profile you (correct me if i'm wrong): you're a more traditional investor in that you prefer solid fundamentals as opposed to TA alone (ala our cool cat singaporegal), you are uncomfortable with short-term trades (in-and-outs make you nervy) and while you like the occasional punts, you get very worried at losses. i.e., you're actually unsuitable for high risk/reward counters (like iPunter and rouge trader...why do i get the feeling you two are not opposed to shorting counters and blithely punting on 'hot tips'... :P). so if i may be so bold, what i'd suggest for you is actually high div, defensive stocks, recession-proof stocks, and growth stocks. Split your portfolio amongst these. Do it by DCA. (it's the portfolio we call 'capital preservation with chance for steady growth'). True it's less 'sexy', but I trust you'll find investing more profitable and less sleepless nights this way. :) |
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| 24-Dec-2006 22:18 |
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heya, nah, i'm no guru. Like everyone else here, i'm just a learner. And singaporegal, i'll tell ya straight out that your TA skills beat mine hands down. :) I only hope that all the masters and elites here don't think i'm too longwinded/showoff. esp since i'm prob one of the younger ones in this forum. >~< but yea, currently doing such long posts in the hope that fellow retail investors can learn (just as i'm doing from you guys and girls); am really quite tired of seeing small fries being taken for rides all the time. So yea, FA or TA, really, let's all pick up the skills for whatever _individual_ strategy that works for us, and make up our own, informed minds. that's the only way to beat the market in the long run. that's my wish for everyone at sharejunction. hope this elf has been of help. :) merry xmas one and all! |
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| 24-Dec-2006 17:40 |
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hey... i don't have the latest actual analysts' report on singtel, so if anyone could kindly provide it? i don't want to make an FA call based on price target alone. offhand though... Ah, singtel, institutions' darling. Have tracked this baby since it IPOed, it's one of those i mean when i say it's a high dividend play. You don't actually buy this for the gain in share price; it's a defensive stock you hold for divvies. cos Temasek holds like 62% of it. haha. The strategy you'd do with this fella is DCA (dollar cost averaging): meaning you park some money into it every once in a while whatever its price, and build up holdings in it over the years. That's for the long term investor. From memory it does look overpriced now tho. Think it traditionally trades between $2.24 and $3.40; narrower band of $2.24 -$2.80. and if i read its TA rightly, it'll prob drop next week. vol, A/D and chaikin show a dip. Appears to me that institutions have sold. If i may stick my neck, out for the short-term investor, i'd call a sell on it now. 3.22 is a good price. :) giantlow: SPC. yep, TA and global trends show a long, slow decline, unfortunately. Still, lemonade can be made from lemons. When SPC drops below $4, wait for it to bottom out, and scoop up more then to average out loss/gain. Long term (5 yrs plus?) you cannot lose on this stock since oil supply is finite, and alternative sources of fuel are still in their infancy and unpopular with gas guzzlers like China and the US. btw, if a co buys back its shares it may not always be a good thing. sometimes they're just trying to shore it up so that price doesn't drop too low (and investors panic and flee). Alternatively it indicates a management struggle for control of the board. In SPC's case, in light of global events, i'd say it's the former. |
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| 24-Dec-2006 15:56 |
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Hi all,
IPunter and singaporegal: no worries, as responsible investors, we?re the ones who make up our own minds. No blame whatsoever if we heed your buy call and it goes the other way. J (touch wood though!)
Livermore: reading the analyst report on CHT now. Note that the following is entirely my opinion, and you?ll find that I differ from brokers. I might be wholly wrong too. It?s just my personal take combining FA, TA and world trends. Apologies for being longwinded yet again. Argh. Firstup, remember what I said abt PE ratios being entirely artificial: that is true.
Brokers FA call: Rec buy with target of 93c. Reasons: consistent year on year profits despite rising oil costs. Current PE ratio of 5.7x, comparable with its closest rival Luxking at 5.3x, while its market cap is 6x larger than Lux. Small caps stocks trade at PE of 6-8x, so price of 93c was derived using a fair value of 7x.
All this sounds like a buy, no? Now my take:
World trends: I?d personally avoid oil related stocks next year. It?s gonna be very volatile ?cos of Iraq and other factors. OPEC has cut oil production. Saudi Arabia has openly threatened to flood the oil market to support the sunnis should the US make a wrong move. On the other hand, all you need is a bomb in an Iraq field, and Halliburton and co lose their contract (oil, up!). All in all it?s permutations on a bullet, and I don?t trust information from a gun.
My FA call: If you read closely, shareholders return on equity is actually forecasted to DECREASE (22.7 to 21.2 mil). While its PE ratio is already increasing. What this means to me is that 93c is overly optimistic. Even if I were to stick within their traditional PE ratio, but choose a more conservative (and realistic) 6x, it means fair value for the stock is actually 79c.
TA: report published on 24/11. Ramped up vols on stock from 15th onward, hitting a high on the 27th with 79c touched. Chaikin, A/D and RSI all high (you won?t use williams since it?s not a trending market). Thereafter, dramatically low vols, so discard the rising chaikin and A/D readingsà these actually dropped after the 27th for a while. Now I don?t have access currently to the buy/sell vols on those days, but if anyone has it it?s evidence: my guess is that big boys SOLD by the 27th, small timers picked it up. It?s not gonna hit 93c by FA or TA.
Conclusion: classic case of small timers taken for a ride by the big boys. When FA and TA coincide, I?d pay heed. If you?re not vested, don?t go in. And again my disclaimer: this is entirely my opinion, and I?m no expert. All I try to do as a retail investor is to use institutional FA knowledge (against institutions haha), TA and world trends. Hope this helps. J |
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| 23-Dec-2006 21:41 |
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heya, nick...haha, it's just elfin child with an additional e at the end. and haha, actually when i joined sharejunction i had no intention of posting at all--having seen the kind of mudslinging that passes for 'debate' on local forums *eek*. but the people here seemed real nice and mature, which was why i decided to join in. kudos to you all. :) and hey you two, with regards to the age old debate of TA vs FA, i'm a realist. Just take what works. Eyes on the charts and follow the data. See what _is_, not what you want. Lots of ways to play the market, as long as it's profitable, do what works for you and let's agree to disagree! :) LabMar: if you looked at its TA long term, you would not have in-and-outed as its trend was consistently up all the way. Never short your winners. That was one of the best advice my former director gave me. btw, realised i should clarify: when i say brokers, i don't mean the bitty ones you and i call. I mean the big funds. Think Templeton with US$1bil in a single fund, think Soros shorting the ringgit. It's a scale few of us can conceive of--it's what i've seen firsthand. To give an idea of scale: DBS is the biggest local bank here; but to these big sharks, DBS is not even a blip on the international banking scene. It's just a singapore stock they'd play as a toy. which is why, always be careful. |
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| 23-Dec-2006 20:37 |
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hi Livermore, i agree with you actually. I'll be the first to say i'm not a TA purist. Of the TA stocks listed, the ones i'd watch more are the ones with sound fundamentals--it's added guarantee. Some of my best buys in the past were based on FA, not TA. And i held for years. like sgx at < $2, osim <$1 before share split. Basically, TA's not the be-all and end-all. I use what works. It's division of portfolio too. You buy according to your risk appetite. Pure TA people need nerves of steel. (which i don't have. haha) Set aside some for short term playing, hold some good fundamentals for long term; this way you'll beat the market in the long run. Another option you can consider: high dividend stocks. Park money into these stocks when they're low, and just do it by DCA (dollar cost averaging): over the years, you'll build up profit of ~5% per annum. bottomline, don't listen to people too much (including me). you play the market according to what you feel most comfortable with. :) like what you're doing with ferrochina now is right from a longterm perspective. :) |
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| 23-Dec-2006 19:59 |
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heya iPunter, no prob, apologies to all for the long post really. I don't want to come across as an expert, since as the trading mantra goes, 'past performance is not guarantee of future results.' Plus, arrogance has got to be one's greatest enemy when trading. I'm just a small fry. :) My one tip: listen to singaporegal. Man, if i were a guy i'd def go after her!! what are you boys all waiting for?! :P heehee. and i prob shouldn't reveal too much (or the brokers will come after me >.<), but small timers need to realise this: price targets and resistance levels etc are artificially set by EPS ratio and NAV as indicators--EPS ratio however is just an arbitrary derivation based on the industry the stock is in. Meaning that just 'cos brokers recommend that innovalue's (for eg) target is 1.51 and it's 'undervalued' doesn't mean it'll hit that. Esp since brokers tend to up their rec prices, and sell _before_ that. Also, when they sell, it's not just one broker. they phonecall their friends and do it en masse. I've seen them do it and it's scary. that's why most small timers tend to lose. They call it the 'greater fool theory'---"who's left holding the baby in the end? nyah nyah" (yes, it's an actual quote pasted up on a fund co's wall.) in other words, resistance levels and support levels are psychological barriers. Markets move on sentiment, not real profit/loss of a company. Price targets are artificial. So the only way you can track emotion and profit on stocks: TA. Beautiful, really, mathematics. :) |
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| 23-Dec-2006 19:08 |
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heya tanglinboy, took me a day to compile. lest that sounds too fast...am new to this site but not exactly new to investing; did an internship in fund mgmt when i was 18 (that opened my eyes big time), been investing since 21; so some of the stocks i've been tracking for years. oh yea, the thai somersault was unbelievable. haha. they seriously damaged their credibility man. yep prop stocks. watch allgreen, ascendas and macqinf next week. do be careful not to put all eggs into one basket tho; have seen firsthand how the big boys play; we can't fight against them, we can only ride the trends. cheers to all! |
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| 23-Dec-2006 17:26 |
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hm, TA on ASLmar shows downtrend, but i wouldn't really trust TA on it since vol is too low to be significant. Not sure what the FA is on this counter though; if that's good might be worth. any info? :) actually my instinct is to wait for dip next week (boozy traders make for low markets :P), buy some good counters, and out fast in the jan rally when brokers start coming in again to sweep up their prop and bank stocks. |
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| 23-Dec-2006 17:01 |
Allgreen
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Allgreen
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hi, XA = ex-all, i.e., everything (rights, divvies, stock splits etc) given out. XD = ex-dividend, i.e., divvy money (only) paid out on book closure. |
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| 23-Dec-2006 16:52 |
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Hi, on holiday now so had the time. haha. Everyone, pls feel free to add or take away from the TA list below. let's all profit! :) Would like opinions/critiques too. Initial criteria for selection: -stock price between 80c and $3. below that too volatile and liable for manipulation; above too ex: if your budget is high, those above $3 and acceptable: sembcorp, st engg, semb marine, singtel, SPC. The big banks, creative and venture. -ave daily vol of 1 mil for past year. No flatliners with sudden spikes ala Tat Hong; those cause heart attacks man. (plus from inside info, we know ppl were manipulating that particular counter) -at least 1 year of data. which leaves out this year's IPOs--just to be on safe side. Some 'bridesmaids-in-waiting' eligible next year--The 7 of them here IPOed from May onward: allco, banyan, CDLHtrust, chinamilk, luzhou, jiutian, sino-env. -stock has to be reliable on at least one indicator. If you are able to run backtests to see how effective an indicator is on a stock, that's good. e.g., offhand, SPC is apparently best predicted with the 9 day EMA. There are growth stocks that defy all indicators; steer clear of those if you're TAing: e.g., OSIM. Backtests show no indicators are sufficiently accurate for this stock. Closest is the RSI. (these are the counters you rely on FA for; and need to be held long term) -no US$ denominated stocks. US$ expected to fall next year; senseless taking double risk. end result: List of TA stocks: *drumroll!* Allgreen, Ascendasreit, ascott, biosensors, capitacomm, capitamall, celestial, chartered, chinasky, comfortdelgro, cosco, ferrochina, ho bee, hyflux, jurtech, labroymar, longcheer, macqinfra, mapletree, MMPreit, noble, olam, singpost, smrt, starhub, suntecreit, STX PO, UIC, wilmar, wingtai. note that most are on downtrend now/soon. at least, from the half i managed to TA on with my erratic internet access. >~< FA big pic: property and related (construction etc), banking. So ferrochina if you're holding longterm, really, no worries there. :) merry xmas everyone! |
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| 23-Dec-2006 00:14 |
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concur with singaporegal. watching a basket of abt 30+ stocks now (the ones that can be TA-ed); if you look at overall pic, most are showing signs of imminent downtrend, if not already. red flags are up. pls do be careful next week esp. ferrochina is downtrending. |
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| 22-Dec-2006 13:48 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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haha yes....in any case, big players have all but closed their books for the year; it's time for us small fries to take a break too. If you're vested stay vested, if you're not, don't go in now. Lots of other counters anyway, no fear on losing an opportunity. :) And on another note, singaporegal has got to be one of the best TA people I've seen around. Hats off to her! \(^o^)/ |
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| 19-Dec-2006 15:55 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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Stock's not downtrending, it's stablising; 'fallow' period before a breakout. Xmas time, fund managers are going on holiday soon, so expect entire market to take a breather for this week and next as people take their profits. Slight dip expected as Chaikin's a little down; but overall trend still positive. RSI steadily rising. It's a chance for accumulation, wait and see. Similar to Wing Tai. Both stocks worth considering. |
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| 18-Dec-2006 13:50 |
Celestial
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worth going in
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Based on TA, stock appears to be on downtrend. Crossed its sell signal about beginning of this month. Bands tightening; implies a trend change soon, be careful. Surprising, considering it's one of the brokers' choice recommendations. |
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| 14-Dec-2006 14:11 |
Hyflux
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Hyflux breaks into Indian Market
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Hi, no hurry to buy in this counter; still on downtrend. It moves in a pretty predictable band. Generally speaking (for those without time to monitor), could aim for <2.10 as buy target and sell at ~2.40; hold period of abt 4 mths. For TA people, MA crossover at 2 and 10 days, and MACD (standard 9 day EMA) gives you the best buy/sell signal for this counter; it'll shorten your trading period to a month or less. Chaikin and Ac/Di can be used as supportive tools too. Watch out for big funds playing this counter though; don't get caught. Happy trading! |
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