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what stocks to buy now
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iPunter
Supreme |
24-Dec-2006 17:55
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Thank you very much, elfinchilde... J I must say we've not seen such good quality comments in this forum in a long while... and which comes with so much value-added content as your accumulate experience and insightful views. Thanks again for being so nice as grace this forum with your presence.Much appreciated. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Dec-2006 17:40
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hey... i don't have the latest actual analysts' report on singtel, so if anyone could kindly provide it? i don't want to make an FA call based on price target alone. offhand though... Ah, singtel, institutions' darling. Have tracked this baby since it IPOed, it's one of those i mean when i say it's a high dividend play. You don't actually buy this for the gain in share price; it's a defensive stock you hold for divvies. cos Temasek holds like 62% of it. haha. The strategy you'd do with this fella is DCA (dollar cost averaging): meaning you park some money into it every once in a while whatever its price, and build up holdings in it over the years. That's for the long term investor. From memory it does look overpriced now tho. Think it traditionally trades between $2.24 and $3.40; narrower band of $2.24 -$2.80. and if i read its TA rightly, it'll prob drop next week. vol, A/D and chaikin show a dip. Appears to me that institutions have sold. If i may stick my neck, out for the short-term investor, i'd call a sell on it now. 3.22 is a good price. :) giantlow: SPC. yep, TA and global trends show a long, slow decline, unfortunately. Still, lemonade can be made from lemons. When SPC drops below $4, wait for it to bottom out, and scoop up more then to average out loss/gain. Long term (5 yrs plus?) you cannot lose on this stock since oil supply is finite, and alternative sources of fuel are still in their infancy and unpopular with gas guzzlers like China and the US. btw, if a co buys back its shares it may not always be a good thing. sometimes they're just trying to shore it up so that price doesn't drop too low (and investors panic and flee). Alternatively it indicates a management struggle for control of the board. In SPC's case, in light of global events, i'd say it's the former. |
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giantlow
Master |
24-Dec-2006 16:40
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Ooh dear, elfinchilde. Looks like my SPC kenna stuck leow. I thought they buying back shares so its a good thing. argh... |
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iPunter
Supreme |
24-Dec-2006 16:19
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Good piece, elfinchilde... J Appreciate if you could kindly do a brief mention about SingTel. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
24-Dec-2006 15:56
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Hi all,
IPunter and singaporegal: no worries, as responsible investors, we?re the ones who make up our own minds. No blame whatsoever if we heed your buy call and it goes the other way. J (touch wood though!)
Livermore: reading the analyst report on CHT now. Note that the following is entirely my opinion, and you?ll find that I differ from brokers. I might be wholly wrong too. It?s just my personal take combining FA, TA and world trends. Apologies for being longwinded yet again. Argh. Firstup, remember what I said abt PE ratios being entirely artificial: that is true.
Brokers FA call: Rec buy with target of 93c. Reasons: consistent year on year profits despite rising oil costs. Current PE ratio of 5.7x, comparable with its closest rival Luxking at 5.3x, while its market cap is 6x larger than Lux. Small caps stocks trade at PE of 6-8x, so price of 93c was derived using a fair value of 7x.
All this sounds like a buy, no? Now my take:
World trends: I?d personally avoid oil related stocks next year. It?s gonna be very volatile ?cos of Iraq and other factors. OPEC has cut oil production. Saudi Arabia has openly threatened to flood the oil market to support the sunnis should the US make a wrong move. On the other hand, all you need is a bomb in an Iraq field, and Halliburton and co lose their contract (oil, up!). All in all it?s permutations on a bullet, and I don?t trust information from a gun.
My FA call: If you read closely, shareholders return on equity is actually forecasted to DECREASE (22.7 to 21.2 mil). While its PE ratio is already increasing. What this means to me is that 93c is overly optimistic. Even if I were to stick within their traditional PE ratio, but choose a more conservative (and realistic) 6x, it means fair value for the stock is actually 79c.
TA: report published on 24/11. Ramped up vols on stock from 15th onward, hitting a high on the 27th with 79c touched. Chaikin, A/D and RSI all high (you won?t use williams since it?s not a trending market). Thereafter, dramatically low vols, so discard the rising chaikin and A/D readingsà these actually dropped after the 27th for a while. Now I don?t have access currently to the buy/sell vols on those days, but if anyone has it it?s evidence: my guess is that big boys SOLD by the 27th, small timers picked it up. It?s not gonna hit 93c by FA or TA.
Conclusion: classic case of small timers taken for a ride by the big boys. When FA and TA coincide, I?d pay heed. If you?re not vested, don?t go in. And again my disclaimer: this is entirely my opinion, and I?m no expert. All I try to do as a retail investor is to use institutional FA knowledge (against institutions haha), TA and world trends. Hope this helps. J |
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Livermore
Master |
24-Dec-2006 01:57
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Hi Elfinchilde, Hey this stock CHT is horrible in terms of volume. Any comments on FA point of view? |
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iPunter
Supreme |
24-Dec-2006 00:33
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Singaporegal... hehe.. Indeed you have become the defacto 'oracle' for those new and not-so-new market enthusiasts who seek some credible guidance in their 'journey into the unknown'. It is understandable how this can make one feel uncomfortable or even somewhat stressed since trading is not a sure-win activity. And this is where the real stress can be, namely when others take our word to be a great 'tip' to a good deal and bank on it to make money for them. |
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JamesP
Member |
24-Dec-2006 00:07
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Hi All, just registered myself a couple of days ago. Happen to find this website while doing some stiok research. I must say I am impress with the knowledge some of the forumers have. I'm not an expert in this area but very open to learning. Personally I have been in the market for the past 5 years..paid abit of school fees too : ) Hope to learn more and hopefully I'll be able to contribute too. |
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jayish
Member |
23-Dec-2006 23:53
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Hi, just would like to express my gratitude to all of the forumers here, as i have learned alot from you ppl since the day i step into stock trading. THANKS! |
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singaporegal
Supreme |
23-Dec-2006 22:51
Yells: "Female TA nut" |
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Hi Elfinchilde, Gee girl...... don't give me so much credit leh... very stressful. :) Thanks anyway! I just found a trading technique that works for me, that's all. Anyone can follow a few rules. Yah, I have been to some of the other "investing" forums in Singapore. It really puts me off when the people just verbally abuse one another or just plain talk rubbish. |
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Livermore
Master |
23-Dec-2006 22:03
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Hey IPunter and Elfinchilde, Thanks for your posts. I am always learning, This website allows all of us to share so people who just start trading don't make the mistakes others make. It is better to learn from other's mistakes. I have not had the time yet to type out what the option guru trader Clarence has to say on growth stocks. The article was featured in the business times some time ago. Give me some time. |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Dec-2006 21:41
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heya, nick...haha, it's just elfin child with an additional e at the end. and haha, actually when i joined sharejunction i had no intention of posting at all--having seen the kind of mudslinging that passes for 'debate' on local forums *eek*. but the people here seemed real nice and mature, which was why i decided to join in. kudos to you all. :) and hey you two, with regards to the age old debate of TA vs FA, i'm a realist. Just take what works. Eyes on the charts and follow the data. See what _is_, not what you want. Lots of ways to play the market, as long as it's profitable, do what works for you and let's agree to disagree! :) LabMar: if you looked at its TA long term, you would not have in-and-outed as its trend was consistently up all the way. Never short your winners. That was one of the best advice my former director gave me. btw, realised i should clarify: when i say brokers, i don't mean the bitty ones you and i call. I mean the big funds. Think Templeton with US$1bil in a single fund, think Soros shorting the ringgit. It's a scale few of us can conceive of--it's what i've seen firsthand. To give an idea of scale: DBS is the biggest local bank here; but to these big sharks, DBS is not even a blip on the international banking scene. It's just a singapore stock they'd play as a toy. which is why, always be careful. |
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Dec-2006 21:27
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Livermore... What you said is very true... spectacular gains are extremely elating and satisfying when one is riding the trend. And the best TA traders are those who ride the trend as a habitual part of their trading technique. |
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Livermore
Master |
23-Dec-2006 21:09
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Hi IPunter, Actually I think use a bit of TA to enter at the right time and then if you believe in the long term prospects in the stock, don't keep "going in and going out" and eventually lose out spectacular gains. To me it is not much point but still have to minotor. Just sharing from experience |
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Livermore
Master |
23-Dec-2006 21:02
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Hi Elfinchilde, Wow your nick very "cheam". I actually wrote it down first before typing this post. Yeah, you have some ideas similar to mine. Use TA to "lock in" some profits. As for those with long term prospects, just go to "sleep and dream" and "wake up" once a while to see "everything" is ok. Actually I am writing this from lessons learnt in the past when I did not not have the patience to hold on some stocks and lost out on spectacular gains. It real heartache when I see their prices now......... |
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Dec-2006 20:55
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Elfinchilde... Thank you for your posting... It's really nice of you to share your thoughts with us... and I think we all should be honoured to have someone like you who is so humble as to grace this forum. With your valuable insights of the market and your firsthand broad knowledge of what make the damn beast tick, I am certain many many will benefit from your continued presence if they hear you. Livermore... It is a fact that many people end up being long-term investors precisely because they don't use TA. In other words, these are the ones who are still holding their stocks for extended periods because they are losing money on these stocks. But with long enough waiting (quite likely in terms of months, possibly even years), they will eventually break even or make much money. On the other hand, those who consciously use TA to trade the market are realists who have decided to take advantage of the phenomenon of trends to :- 1) make the most money in the shortest time 2) save wasted time 3) Add dynamism and pleasure to the investment process |
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Dec-2006 20:37
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hi Livermore, i agree with you actually. I'll be the first to say i'm not a TA purist. Of the TA stocks listed, the ones i'd watch more are the ones with sound fundamentals--it's added guarantee. Some of my best buys in the past were based on FA, not TA. And i held for years. like sgx at < $2, osim <$1 before share split. Basically, TA's not the be-all and end-all. I use what works. It's division of portfolio too. You buy according to your risk appetite. Pure TA people need nerves of steel. (which i don't have. haha) Set aside some for short term playing, hold some good fundamentals for long term; this way you'll beat the market in the long run. Another option you can consider: high dividend stocks. Park money into these stocks when they're low, and just do it by DCA (dollar cost averaging): over the years, you'll build up profit of ~5% per annum. bottomline, don't listen to people too much (including me). you play the market according to what you feel most comfortable with. :) like what you're doing with ferrochina now is right from a longterm perspective. :) |
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Livermore
Master |
23-Dec-2006 20:17
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Don't ge me wrong here with this post. I am not against TA. I agree with technical analyst David Bension when he said this during an interview with Business Times recently : He said, "To ascertain a very long term trend, you need to know what the fundamentals are. Technical analysis allows you to identify the precise turning points - that this price at that time is a good place to buy or temporarily sell. It is not a question of technical versus fundamentals. They each contribute to the investment and trading decision." I am just thinking when Labroy moved from 58c all the way to now about $1.80 and if you strictly used TA, wouldn't you have "gone in, gone out" many many times?
Maybe use TA to "lock in" some profits for some shares and then "park" some money for long term might be one way.
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elfinchilde
Elite |
23-Dec-2006 19:59
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heya iPunter, no prob, apologies to all for the long post really. I don't want to come across as an expert, since as the trading mantra goes, 'past performance is not guarantee of future results.' Plus, arrogance has got to be one's greatest enemy when trading. I'm just a small fry. :) My one tip: listen to singaporegal. Man, if i were a guy i'd def go after her!! what are you boys all waiting for?! :P heehee. and i prob shouldn't reveal too much (or the brokers will come after me >.<), but small timers need to realise this: price targets and resistance levels etc are artificially set by EPS ratio and NAV as indicators--EPS ratio however is just an arbitrary derivation based on the industry the stock is in. Meaning that just 'cos brokers recommend that innovalue's (for eg) target is 1.51 and it's 'undervalued' doesn't mean it'll hit that. Esp since brokers tend to up their rec prices, and sell _before_ that. Also, when they sell, it's not just one broker. they phonecall their friends and do it en masse. I've seen them do it and it's scary. that's why most small timers tend to lose. They call it the 'greater fool theory'---"who's left holding the baby in the end? nyah nyah" (yes, it's an actual quote pasted up on a fund co's wall.) in other words, resistance levels and support levels are psychological barriers. Markets move on sentiment, not real profit/loss of a company. Price targets are artificial. So the only way you can track emotion and profit on stocks: TA. Beautiful, really, mathematics. :) |
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iPunter
Supreme |
23-Dec-2006 19:24
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Oops sorry elfinchilde, I didn't read your previous posts before asking you that... how silly of me to ask you something like that!!! Of course you do charting... for someone who was involved in funds management (wow.. you did rub shoulders and play marbles with those big boys, huh... wow!). Thank you for being here... :) |
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