Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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About elfinchilde
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| 09-Feb-2007 23:59 |
Chartered
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Re-rating of Chartered
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concur with singaporegal...crazy stock man. not worth the risk. for me at least. haha. |
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| 09-Feb-2007 23:58 |
Longcheer
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China 3G licence
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various reasons for drop perhaps...primarily, stock dropped 'cos issued profit warning.. but it isn't just about the 5% drop in profit. brokerage houses issue reports based on full year targets. Longcheer is facing stiffer competition and decreased profit margins--so even tho they're selling more, they're earning less relative to previous years: 42% increase in sales, but only 22% rise in income. And competition getting tougher. Moreover, 40% rise in expenditure. Cash earnings approx S$24 mil compared to previous year S$129.4 mil. ie,dropped by some 80%. a further idea of loss of profitability can be seen from their divvy yield. previous year div of 1.04c, special div of 3.12c. This year only 1.6c, no special div. So the untold story from these figures: rough estimation is a 60% decrease in profitability looking ahead. that's why your BBs are selling. in addition to nervy market sentiment. |
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| 09-Feb-2007 23:41 |
Osim Intl
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OSIM
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yea, no end in sight. poor ron sim. :((( there goes osim....so sad... |
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| 09-Feb-2007 23:37 |
SPC
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SPC
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keke, idesa, i fully agree with you about the everyone, let's HUAT AH! sentiment. hehe. i'll always consider myself a novice since anyone who claims to be an expert on the market is likely a person who underestimates the market. :) besides, considering my age, i can only be a novice at best. and yes, you're right: in a bull market, 80% success rate is nothing much, plus, i'll never exclude the possibility that i'm just lucky either. haha. :P and yeah, just going in on any old stock just because a few charts read buy is a bad idea. that's why TA people have very strict rules about the stocks they play. 'cos the stocks must fit in certain parameters. For me, after weeding out the entire SGX mainboard (yes, the entire 1367 stocks), there's only abt 50 that are TA-able. keke, godpa and livermore, sorry, elf can't play margin...not that it's a bad thing, but I'll just die of panic man....too nervy for that. >~< and hehe, idesa, i sold out all my TA stocks precisely 'cos i think market's down trending. that why only holding an FA baby now. :) depends lah. i'm not fussy. i'll play whichever way the wind blows. make money can already. ;) |
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| 09-Feb-2007 22:03 |
SPC
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SPC
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hullo idesa168, yep agree with you about not challenging the BBs. what we try to do is to follow the trend. :) i play both by TA and FA, so from an FA point i fully agree with you, about shutting out noise from market, not playing warrants etc--these are things i practice myself. and yea, like you i'm against warrants too. 'cos to me they're gambles on a gamble, and i won't take double jeopardy. and keke, yeah i know what you mean about being lucky. Luck does play a part in the market, definitely, but also skill: that's where TA comes in. (speaking now from a TA standpoint) and yes, it definitely requires you to watch the market a lot more (and not twitch at every single move), but like i said, it's all dependent on personality. some would not be able to take the 30 year wait, while others would love it. To me, as long as a person knows his/her mind and goals, and can achieve it, any method's fine. :) ehhhh.... depending on your salary means you'll be working all your life! which is fine if you love your job i guess... but probably just a goal difference for me here: my aim is financial independence. ie, what capital i make from the market is enough for living comfortably on, with or without a job. and yes, if this gives hope to others out there, it is possible. To date, I'm only holding one FA counter now (sold out all TA stocks already 'cos i find market too shaky). But for the TA and TA+FA counters, my tally for mid-dec to feb stands at 10 trades, 8 profit. 2 brokerage loss. That's what i mean by 15% return per annum IS possible, including losses. i mean, i make more than my monthly salary on the market each month. and i don't believe i'm the only one here who can do this, esp since i'm only a novice! and no, i don't glue myself to the monitor every day. only abt 15 min lunch time and call for report after. wouldn't say i spend more than an hr a day on stock monitoring. In the future tho, i'll definitely be trading the way you say. Pure FA and hold long term basis. Only blue chips for the long term. :) |
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| 09-Feb-2007 21:46 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hullo godpa. st engg uptrend likely to continue; mon should see price increase. accumulation appears strong; some cents down today prob 'cos profit taking. SPC's trends are mixed. lead indicators read up but lag reading down. in any case, you're holding onto the motherstock so that's fine. likely to wait til before divvy before you see a spike. barring any major world event, my call would be to sell before dividend or straight after. it's being held up solely by divvy for now (ie, for FA short term abt 4-6 mth). pet, mind mailing geojam so he can forward me your email? then we can sanba or something together. heehee. :P shopping! wanna go?? :) fairygal, james bond is only in the movies...the reality's a lot less cooler. but yea, it is very interesting work, altho very tiring too. living in hallways of smoke and mirrors doesn't do much to make you trust people. but oh, i think i may have forgotten to give you a leaf badge? you must forgive me, i'm so tired on weekdays! here, *leaf badge!* :)))) and erm, budget day's likely to be mixed news... general qn: is all contra period T+3? i get T+5 leh. *blur* in any case i don't exactly use it...contra to me just means i have cash equivalent in the bank ready to back it up in case don't sell out by then. and giantlow, why did you contra SMB, of all stocks? it's an FA counter leh, not TA....ie, hold longer time... |
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| 09-Feb-2007 21:33 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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victorian, ri/rj or whatever, doesn't matter. we all have a part to play in whatever we do. :) oh yea. baby's chugging along nicely. it's the only counter i'm vested in now. :) tech-wise, strong momentum up. likely to continue adding 0.5-1c every day, with some stagnant days in between, from now til results announcement in end feb. we just sit back and watch now, fellow edmi-ers. :) |
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| 09-Feb-2007 21:20 |
SPC
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SPC
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hm...idesa168, the holding for 30 years view only works if: 1) You can actually pick an SPH at $1 (which really, how many can?) 2) You can sell at the high 30 years later, and not get burnt in a crash. Like 1987, 1997, 2003. Perhaps it's less about punting but more about focused investing. to take your example: i can start with 10,000, make 15% return per annum (which is very achievable really), and by compounded returns, that sum will be worth 662K in 30 years. of course, a lot depends on personality and individual knowledge: quite a lot will be happy parking in that 10K for 30 years and just letting it grow. and the thing is, nothing wrong with either method as long as the goal is achieved. completely agree with your point that we should only play with money we can afford to lose! if it's gonna cause sleepless nights, then really...might not be worth it. :) as a thought: is it possible that your BBs are manipulating motherstock 'cos they hold the warrants too? so they'll have vested interests to NOT let SPC move beyond 3.5, esp if they bought the warrants opposing giantlow's type. just a thought. |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:56 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey lewsh, apologies, only saw your post now in midst of the rest. i don't use chartnexus, but could you possibly be looking at candlesticks patterns? would anyone else like to comment? :) |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:52 |
Ho Bee Land
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Riding High On The Sentosa Wave
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yea singaporegal, that's what i try to comfort myself with... hehe. but yes, realistically, unless you're flipping watching the monitor the whole day, or are that lucky, it is impossible to! |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:51 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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wah...godpa....heartache for you man... as a guide, look at the actual price and buy/sell vols on the 12th, and 13th itself to decide whether to sell or not. Like those buy up/sell down charts kilroy etc have been posting on SPC (where do they get them from?! i manually calculate mine! niama....): that's your best indication of hold or sell. yea...personally, for me, the only real profit is profit in hand, not paper profit. keke, no lah, nothing much to mail ya in private about, but ok, will be a good goddaughter and mail you. :) but pls dun reveal my real name etc on forum ah.... |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:37 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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keke, singaporegal, you could say we forced ourselves on him. keke. :P i believe i told him to adopt us 'cos "i'm cute!" :P i'm sure he'd be estatic if he could adopt you, but everyone else will probably wail. haha. i would too! :) oh and update, bunbun's my pet bunnie too! :))))) wheee..... btw godpa, if you should like any private words away from the public forum, do let me know yea, i'll email you in private then. but hehe sorry won't post my email out in public. i'm a caged nightingale. 'cos of work. :( |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:32 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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godpa, st engg FYE is 13th feb. tomorrow til then likely to go up. by calculations it can hit 3.70-3.74, but only ard the 16th of this mth. the divvie yield, if i rem rightly, shplayer or someone else calculated at 14.6c. if you're holding for divvie longterm, it's good. but personally, if i bought at 2.81, i'll look to out soon. capital gains greater than divvy, so leverage on investor sentiment for divvy, and lock in capital gain instead. need to be careful budget day 15th 'cos sentiment will shift that day. whether you hold or sell before/after that depends on what you expect sentiment to be upon govt's announcement. trend now says buy--'cos ramp up on expected good FYE results. likely to drop aft that on profit taking/bad budget day, in which case buy back on a dip. st engg trades cyclical, bull market i'd target entry at sub $3, bear market at $2.40. that's my call. now yours. :) and pls remember that this silly goddaughter of yours has a habit of running too early from shares. erk. |
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| 08-Feb-2007 21:09 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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eh pai seh...wines come in red, white, dessert, champagne. (this just offhand ah, so will miss out some) if you're in aussieland, then grapes for white wines normally = chardonnay, riesling, semillon, sauvignon blanc. there are others, like pinot grigo, pinot blanc too. my favourite, gerwurtztraminer (only from alsace region in france tho!) standard red grapes = cabernet sauvignon, merlot, shiraz. Pinot noir. rarer ones include the syrah, camernere (ancient varietals of the shiraz), grenache, shadrach and mesarch. if you're in aussieland, the top end is the Penfolds range. Wendourrie too (spelling might be wrong!). worth as investment. hehe. then you have exotic blends like the Holy Trinity etc. |
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| 08-Feb-2007 20:54 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey godpa, eh?? what's there to be offended at? you did read me right what. :) if it's the tone, pardon me... I tend to get very intense when i'm at work (be it proper day job or investing), so yea, i might be flighty at times but i'm very serious when it comes down to the crunch. normally when i post in weekday afternoons, it's stolen time from lunch break, so i like to focus only on the investing (which afterall, is the reason why i'm in SJ). the bimbo prattle you see normally only on weekends, cos no trading work then. hehe. hm yea, the leeuwin's estate art series is lovely. the bottle alone is pretty. hehe. the chardonnay, and in particular the riesling is one of my preferred whites. their late harvest semillion-sauv blanc blend is good too. :) |
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| 08-Feb-2007 20:44 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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yes victorian Sir, elves are ephemeral but they're very patient when it comes to waiting for things they desire. :) btw, were you from VJC/VS? |
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| 08-Feb-2007 13:32 |
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hey victorian, accurate call on the rotational plays. blue chips down, mid caps have risen since mon--i missed NOL and noble but managed to catch cdl h at least--right now it's blues down, mids are mixed already. Is it just me, or are the rounds getting faster? and: general sentiment amongst institutions is that budget day will be good. would like your opinion on it? giantlow, separately, spc is down as part of general market blues down. You need to look at macro views for changes because these will affect TA; it helps you move faster than TA as well. range bound was controlled by institutions. it's perhaps no win for the short term small guys there... |
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| 08-Feb-2007 13:24 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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ok nicely done. close 33c today...please. haha. |
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| 08-Feb-2007 13:23 |
SPC
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SPC
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hey giantlow, i know it's difficult, but do pull back a little and look at it rationally yea? Emotions help nothing in the market. Cool down... Thoughts are with you. :) decide what you want to do, and whatever it is, hold no regrets. As in life itself. Hang in there! :) don't suppose a rose would cheer you up? here... @)---)---- i know elves are silly and flighty and hyper, and this won't help you much, but hey. :) |
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| 08-Feb-2007 13:19 |
Sembcorp Ind
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FA and TA
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heya sporeguy, as investors, sometimes it's pure instinct alone, so don't always need terms to explain. good call on it, as proven already. respect to you man. :) rotational play; blue chips down; midcaps turn to be played/in play now. very fast market. |
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