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Yangzijiang hope can hold at $1.10 and higher next resistance $1.20

危中有机，转型当避 ?人云亦云 ?

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Agreement for Constructon of New Platforms Signed in Porto Alegre, Brazil

Posted on Sep 18th, 2013

The agreement for the construction of platforms P-75 and P-77 was signed on Monday (Sept. 16), at PalÃ¡cio Piratini, in Porto Alegre, with the RIG Consortium, which is formed by Queiroz GalvÃ£o, Camargo Correa, and IESA. The ceremony was attended by the President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, and our CEO, GraÃ§a Foster.

The President remarked that ten years ago nobody believed that Brazil could have a naval hub. â??Rio Grande do Sul now has a naval hub that shows the ability and strength of a policy that decided it was indeed possible to produce in Brazil,â?? said Rousseff, highlighting the importance of the growth of the Brazilian oil and gas industry supplier chain.

In her address, GraÃ§a said that in 2013 we will conclude eight platforms that will help us achieve the goal of doubling production by 2020. â??We have 90% contracted in order to be able, in 2020, to double what we produce today, in other words, to reach 4.2 million barrels,â?? she said. She also praised the Brazilian shipbuilding industry: â??The learning curve is spectacular. We are very near becoming one of the greatest centers of excellence in the world again.â??

FPSOs P-75 and P-77

FPSOs (platforms that produce, store and offload oil) P-75 and P-77, with production capacities of 150,000 barrels per day each, will be deployed in Transfer of Rights blocks, in the Santos Basin pre-salt layer, along with two other similar units, the P-74 and P-76. The RIG Consortium will be in charge of building the modules of and integrating both platforms. The work will be done at the HonÃ³rio Bicalho shipyard, in Rio Grande.

The vessels intended to have their hulls converted to the P-75 and P-77 are at the Cosco Shipyard, in China, undergoing hull preparation services, and are expected to arrive in Rio de Janeiro (RJ) in the second half of 2014, where the conversion works will be performed at the InhaÃºma Shipyard. Upon the completion of this step, the hulls will go to Rio Grande. The P-75 is slated to arrive in Rio Grande in the second half of 2015, while the P-77 in the first half of 2016. The works are expected to create approximately 4,400 direct and indirect jobs at the peak of activities. The contractual domestic cocontent is foreseen to be 65% to 71%.

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Some pppl may switch to buy Sembcorp Industries .Keppel Corp . Sembcorp Marine

they all gov company higher divided and safe stocks they call bule chip .

Keppel Shipyard Ltd (Keppel Shipyard) has secured two Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) conversion contracts from repeat customers worth a combined value of S$190 million (approx. USD 150.8 million). These contracts are from SBM Offshore N.V. (SBM Offshore) and M3nergy Offshore Limited (M3nergy Offshore

Oil & Gas Services

Chinese shipbuilders may continue to see downgrades. For Chinese
shipbuilders, we continue to see risks in declining shipbuilding margins as newer
orders with lower margins are executed. Shipyards without operating leverage and
sufficient orderbooks to fill their capacity will see steep erosion in their margins. In our
view, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ SP, BUY, TP: SGD1.31) is the strongest
Chinese yard given its robust balance sheet and strong project execution. However,
its share price is likely to be weighed down by the weak sector outlook.

Figure 27: Yangzijiangï¿½??s consensus FY13 EPS Figure 28: Cosco Corpï¿½??s consensus FY13 EPS

checks this web link below from osk dmg post is good
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Sep16-Sep20_2013/0918_OSK_OilGas.pdf

OSK DMG Recommendation Buy : Sembcorp Industriesï¿½?? .Keppel Corp . Sembcorp Marine

We upgrade Keppel Corp (KEP) from Neutral to BUY with a higher SOPbased
TP of SGD12.24. Easing competition from Chinese yards due to
tighter credit, cuts in shipyard capacity and full orders at the Dalian
yard will boost KEPï¿½??s pricing power. We also believe its new FLNG,
Arctic jackup and drillship products have significant order potential and
its stock may rerate once orders are confirmed.
ï¿½?ï¿½ SGD14.2bn-strong net orderbook. Keppelï¿½??s operations and
maintenance (O& M) division has secured SGD4.1bn worth of new orders
YTD, primarily driven by orders for 10 jackup rigs. Its net orderbook of
SGD14.2bn provides strong visibility for the next two years. That said,
this orderbook value already makes up 80%/54% of our O& M revenue
estimates for FY14/15F.
ï¿½?ï¿½

We upgrade Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)SMM from Neutral to BUY with a higher TP of SGD5.60.
Although a laggard, with its share price returning -4.4% YTD vs the
STIï¿½??s -1.9%, we see upside, fuelled by stronger-than-expected order
wins and easing competition - as commercial ship orders recover and
China tightens shipyard credit - as well as stronger earnings going into
FY14. Our new TP values SMM at a 18.6x FY14F P/E.
ï¿½?ï¿½ Helix places USD346m order for semisub well intervention rig. The
latest order from Helix lifted Sembcorp Marine (SMM)ï¿½??s YTD order wins
to SGD3.93bn. We estimate its net orderbook at SGD14.8bn, with
deliveries extending up to 2019. This is the second well intervention rig
Helix is ordering from SMM. The DP3 semi-submersible (semisub), to be
named Q7000, is based on a design jointly developed by SMM and
Helix. It is scheduled for delivery in mid-2016.

We revise Sembcorp Industriesï¿½?? (SCI) TP to SGD5.90 from SGD5.85, on
a higher TP for SMM, but incorporate a 10% holding company discount
on its shares, same as with Keppel Corp (KEP). Maintain BUY, as we
like: i) the solid earnings from its utilities business, and ii) the upside
from potential M& A in the utilities space. At our TP, the stock is valued
at a 12.4x FY14F P/E.
ï¿½?ï¿½ New capacity in the pipeline. SCI is expanding its utilities business,
with several major projects in the pipeline, including: i) a 400MW
cogeneration plant on Jurong Island that will be ready in mid-2014, ii)
multi-utilities facilities scheduled to be ready in 4Q13, iii) a 49% stake in
a 1,320MW power plant in India to be commissioned in 2H14, and iv) a
USD200m expansion of a desalination plant in Fujairah (in the United
Arab Emirates) that is expected to be completed in 1H15.
ï¿½?ï¿½

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Some pppl may switch to buy Sembcorp Industries .Keppel Corp . Sembcorp Marine

they all gov company higher divided and safe stocks they call bule chip .

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Keppel Secures Two FPSO Conversion Contracts

OSK DMG Recommendation to Buy TP:$12.51 < == >

Posted on Sep 18th, 2013 with tags

Keppel Secures Two FPSO Conversion Contracts Worth USD190 Mil

Keppel Shipyard Ltd (Keppel Shipyard) has secured two Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) conversion contracts from repeat customers worth a combined value of S$190 million (approx. USD 150.8 million). These contracts are from SBM Offshore N.V. (SBM Offshore) and M3nergy Offshore Limited (M3nergy Offshore).

Mr Michael Chia, Managing Director (Marine & Technology), Keppel Offshore & Marine (Keppel O& M), said, â??The award of these contracts from our repeat customers affirms their confidence in us. These contracts from experienced FPSO fleet owners and operators SBM Offshore and M3nergy bear testament to our commitment to quality conversion and upgrading services.

â??Over the years, Keppel Shipyard has worked closely with customers worldwide to bring to the market a range of offshore production solutions. We will continue to ensure the success of our latest FPSO projects to value-add to the global offshore production market.â??

Keppel Shipyardâ??s new conversion project for SBM Offshore is for the FPSO that will host the Stones ultra deepwater development by Shell in the Gulf of Mexico. Once installed, the vessel will be the deepest production facility in the world, as well as the deepest FPSO with a disconnectable buoy (Buoyant Turret Mooring or BTM).

The yardâ??s work scope for the Stones project includes refurbishment and life extension works upgrading of living quarters fabrication and installation of the internal disconnectable buoy BTM system and topside module supports as well as the installation and integration of topside modules.

The FPSO design has a processing facility capacity of 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 15 mmscfd of gas treatment and export. The converted FPSO will be able to store 800,000 barrels of crude oil and its total topsides weight will reach 7,000 tonnes.

Including the Stones FPSO, Keppel Shipyard has undertaken 20 major projects for SBM Offshore since 2000.

Meanwhile, Keppel Shipyardâ??s second contract is from M3nergy Offshore to convert an FPSO for the Bukit Tua Field.

For this project, Keppel Shipyard will undertake refurbishment and life extension works fabrication and installation of new structures, piping systems, spread-mooring system upgrading of the living quarters as well as the installation and integration of the topsides process modules.

Scheduled for completion in the second quarter of 2014, the FPSO has been chartered by PC Ketapang II Ltd for its operations in the Bukit Tua field, which is 35 kilometres north of Madura Island, offshore Indonesia.

The FPSO conversion contract for the Bukit Tua field in Ketapang Block, Indonesia, was awarded to the consortium PT Trasamudra Usaha Sejahtera â?? M3nergy Offshore Ltd. M3nergy Offshore is a subsidiary of M3nergy Berhad.

The FPSO will have a production capacity of up to 25,000 barrels per day of liquids and a storage capacity of up to 630,000 barrels.

The above contracts are not expected to have any material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

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Oil & Gas Services

Chinese shipbuilders may continue to see downgrades. For Chinese
shipbuilders, we continue to see risks in declining shipbuilding margins as newer
orders with lower margins are executed. Shipyards without operating leverage and
sufficient orderbooks to fill their capacity will see steep erosion in their margins. In our
view, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ SP, BUY, TP: SGD1.31) is the strongest
Chinese yard given its robust balance sheet and strong project execution. However,
its share price is likely to be weighed down by the weak sector outlook.

Figure 27: Yangzijiangâ??s consensus FY13 EPS Figure 28: Cosco Corpâ??s consensus FY13 EPS
http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Sep16-Sep20_2013/0918_OSK_OilGas.pdf

OSK DMG Recommendation Buy : Sembcorp Industriesâ?? .Keppel Corp . Sembcorp Marine

We upgrade Keppel Corp (KEP) from Neutral to BUY with a higher SOPbased
TP of SGD12.24. Easing competition from Chinese yards due to
tighter credit, cuts in shipyard capacity and full orders at the Dalian
yard will boost KEPâ??s pricing power. We also believe its new FLNG,
Arctic jackup and drillship products have significant order potential and
its stock may rerate once orders are confirmed.
ï?¨ SGD14.2bn-strong net orderbook. Keppelâ??s operations and
maintenance (O& M) division has secured SGD4.1bn worth of new orders
YTD, primarily driven by orders for 10 jackup rigs. Its net orderbook of
SGD14.2bn provides strong visibility for the next two years. That said,
this orderbook value already makes up 80%/54% of our O& M revenue
estimates for FY14/15F.
ï?¨

We upgrade Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)SMM from Neutral to BUY with a higher TP of SGD5.60.
Although a laggard, with its share price returning -4.4% YTD vs the
STIâ??s -1.9%, we see upside, fuelled by stronger-than-expected order
wins and easing competition - as commercial ship orders recover and
China tightens shipyard credit - as well as stronger earnings going into
FY14. Our new TP values SMM at a 18.6x FY14F P/E.
ï?¨ Helix places USD346m order for semisub well intervention rig. The
latest order from Helix lifted Sembcorp Marine (SMM)â??s YTD order wins
to SGD3.93bn. We estimate its net orderbook at SGD14.8bn, with
deliveries extending up to 2019. This is the second well intervention rig
Helix is ordering from SMM. The DP3 semi-submersible (semisub), to be
named Q7000, is based on a design jointly developed by SMM and
Helix. It is scheduled for delivery in mid-2016.

We revise Sembcorp Industriesâ?? (SCI) TP to SGD5.90 from SGD5.85, on
a higher TP for SMM, but incorporate a 10% holding company discount
on its shares, same as with Keppel Corp (KEP). Maintain BUY, as we
like: i) the solid earnings from its utilities business, and ii) the upside
from potential M& A in the utilities space. At our TP, the stock is valued
at a 12.4x FY14F P/E.
ï?¨ New capacity in the pipeline. SCI is expanding its utilities business,
with several major projects in the pipeline, including: i) a 400MW
cogeneration plant on Jurong Island that will be ready in mid-2014, ii)
multi-utilities facilities scheduled to be ready in 4Q13, iii) a 49% stake in
a 1,320MW power plant in India to be commissioned in 2H14, and iv) a
USD200m expansion of a desalination plant in Fujairah (in the United
Arab Emirates) that is expected to be completed in 1H15.
ï?¨

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Fed play the curtain currency usher storm fear

soucre :Sina Finance 2013年 09月 18日

Abstract: The highly anticipated Fed's monetary policy decisions will be released Thursday morning Beijing time, investors in the foreign exchange market may lead to " reign of terror" in heavy trading cautiously before the event. Whether the Fed will be made at this meeting on the scale of debt reduction options, if it is decided to reduce the size of the debt purchase, how will, in addition, Bernanke will suppress the outside of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates earlier expectations, answers to these questions will announced soon and give a significant impact currency markets.

FX168 The U.S. local time on Wednesday (September 18) Later the Fed (FED) will end the highly anticipated meeting on interest rates, the market is expected to announce a slight reduction of perhaps $ 85 billion a month of purchase debt scale.

The current problem is that the reduction of quantitative easing (QE) and the way how the scale. Mainstream market expectations the Federal Reserve will reduce the share of U.S. $ 10-15 billion debt scale, most of which is used to reduce debt purchase, a small part for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase.

Some analysts pointed out that the QE policy will reduce the dollar positive, but investors should not assume that the U.S. dollar after the Fed issued a statement will automatically rise, strategically speaking, the Fed is most likely to seek to depress the waves, want to limit the rise in bond yields, the stock market fell and the dollar rose.

Since September 6 release of disappointing U.S. employment report, the market potential for the Fed cuts is expected to have reduced. The dollar index Sanya weeks early waited at four weeks lows, technical analyst pointed out that if the dollar index fell below the August 20th low of 80.75, then the test will open around June low of 80.50 on the road.

Overall, as investors reluctant Fed policy meeting to create a new position before the results were out, watching the market thicker atmosphere.

U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will announce interest rate decision 02:00 GMT Thursday and issued a policy statement, followed by 02:30 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke) will preside media Jane. FX168 interest Night, broadcast live.

　　 What the Fed will cut the monthly purchase debt scale how much?

Monthly market expectations the Federal Reserve will purchase $ 10 billion reduction in the scale of debt, and promised to keep interest rates near zero at least until the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% or less. Some analysts believe that the Fed may lower the threshold to 6.0%.

Traders said the market may be considered to reduce the delay moderate stance, or prompted investors to sell dollars. Conversely, if the reduction in the intensity exceeded expectations, may be regarded as a tough stance, boosting demand for dollars.

BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas) strategists said that their basic assumption is that the Fed will not announce the reduction of stimulus measures, but may do so later this year.

Strategists said in a report: " If they do choose to purchase debt reduction announced, we expect cuts are $ 10 billion, and will not be particularly emphasized June press conference was mentioned in the end mid-2014 purchase of debt."

The following is the current resolution of the investment bank, the Federal Reserve is expected to:

Agency

View

Goldman Sachs

Expected to reduce the size of the debt purchase 100 million U.S. dollars, may all be for the U.S. Treasury to reduce the maximum amount may reach 150 one hundred million U.S. dollars

Credit Suisse

Expected to reduce 200 billion in assets purchased, MBS and Treasuries of similar size reduction

UBS

Is expected to reduce the scale of 100-150 billion dollars, most of U.S. Treasury bonds, on MBS less impact

Deutsche Bank

Estimated MBS cut 50 billion dollars, debt reduction of 100 billion U.S. dollars, a total of 150 one hundred million U.S. dollars

BofA Merrill Lynch

Expected to defer QE3 reduced to 12 months

Morgan Stanley

Expected to cut 100-150 billion in asset purchases amount, in the next nine months, the amount of time will be reduced to zero net purchases

BNP Paribas

9 months is not expected to reduce the stimulus measures announced, if it is the choice announced purchase of debt reduction is expected reductions are 100 one hundred million U.S. dollars

Citigroup

Expected to downsize in 100 million to $ 150 one hundred million U.S. dollars

BK AssetManagement Kathy Lien, chief currency strategist, said recently that if the later days of the end of the Fed's monetary policy to reduce the monthly regular meeting announced purchase debt scale, then they will also be trying to calm down after the declaration related decisions impact on the market .

Lien in the media, writes: " to stabilize the financial markets is an important task for the central bank, Ben Bernanke team is very clear that if no reasonable guide market expectations, then there will be fluctuations in the financial markets, and thus threaten the economic recovery in FOMC meeting before the end of 24 hours, the U.S. 10-year yields at about 2.85%, 3% of the level of borrowing costs is not end of the world, but the Fed still want to be able to slow yield rose to that level, rather than a sudden rise in the way Thus, if the Fed as we expected to make a decision to reduce debt purchase and expect weakening market response, then they need to purchase debt coming out of the process to make a clear communication that exit is not equivalent to tighten, if the economic situation were to deteriorate, then the Fed Or will resume bond purchases. "

The article points out, the withdrawal of quantitative easing positive factor for the dollar, but investors can be difficult to determine whether the dollar rose after the session automatically. From a strategic perspective, the Fed will probably weaken the policy impact on the market, hoping bond yields modest rally, while the stock market will not fall. The Fed is expected to guide rational methods are: 1) the reduction of the amount of debt purchase amount can be reduced to 50-100 million, rather than the market expected U.S. $ 15-20 billion 2) reduction in the amount of U.S. debt purchases, but maintain the mortgage-backed securities ( MBS) purchases to support the U.S. housing market 3) lower GDP and inflation expectations (when the 2016 U.S. economic forecast report will be released) 4) by expressing " Exit does not mean crunch" was intended to consolidate the policy of forward-looking guidance 5) undertake economic downturn will regain purchase debt action

Lien said: " Considering the exit action may constitute a long-term impact on U.S. bond yields, we think the Fed will do everything possible to avoid market ups and downs. Weakening 'opt out' decision may lead to a weaker dollar, which is welcomed by the Fed be able to play a role in supporting economic growth situation. Another situation is less likely to occur, the Fed exit delay action until December purchase of debt, if the Fed to do, what I think the dollar will soon be massive sell-off. "

　　 Prospects guidelines also crucial for the U.S. dollar

Analysts pointed out that investors will focus more on the Fed's monetary policy decisions, in addition to reducing the scale of the debt purchase, investors will also focus on Fed interest rate guidelines for the future.

At this meeting, the Fed will announce to the United States in 2016 on the prospects for economic growth, unemployment and inflation initially expected, equally important is the Fed's short-term interest rate target. And the market is close to the Fed's interest rate guidelines for 2016, this is the first time the Fed made this prediction. The Fed was likely to indicate beginning in 2015 raised the benchmark federal funds rate.

Mizuho Securities (Mizuho Securities) senior market analyst Sho Aoyama said: " In addition to reducing the size of stimulus, the more important this time the Fed's interest rate forecast for 2016, which will allow the market to understand the pace of future rate hikes. "

Analysts said the rate hike expectations is key, because it will affect the short-term U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the attractiveness of dollar income. If the fast pace of rate hikes, will keep the dollar more attractive, because the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and many other central banks to tighten policy is still very far away from.

Citigroup Inc. (Citigroup), emerging markets strategist Dirk Willer, managing director, said: " The current market share on Wednesday to reduce the scale of debt is estimated at a very modest $ 10 billion, with the wording on inflation is very gentle and proactive guidance, which will cause some short-term risk. "

Citigroup Global Head of International Economics Nathan Sheets are expected to downsize in the $ 10 billion to $ 15 billion between, he expects the Fed will shift from policy action to promote forward-looking guidance.

Sheets said: " dovish Bernanke comments will be published and I think he said the Fed would buy bonds will slow down the speed, but he also shows that this is not a one-way street, that is, if the economic slowdown, they also increase purchase of debt. "

Given former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers (Larry Summers) announced its withdrawal from the Fed chairmanship race, traders bet the Fed will present a much longer period to maintain an accommodative monetary policy.

Summers decided to quit, so the Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen) most promising win. Investors believe Summers relatively tough, analysts said that if Timingyelun Bernanke took over as Fed chairman, then the Fed may continue to slowly tighten policy prudent. Bernanke's second term expires in January next year.

According to CME Group's Fed Watch, traders now believe that in December 2014 for the first time 55% chance to raise interest rates, in January 2015 the probability is 68%. The agency based on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) trading in federal funds futures prices to generate these probabilities. The dealer had on Friday that the Fed in October 2014 a greater chance of the first hike.

Fed watchers, has a " Fed News Service," said Jon Hilsenrath recently said that the Fed is difficult to judge whether the subsequent monetary policy should still be included in the forward-looking guidance to maintain the economic recovery road policy strategy content.

JonHilsenrath pointed out in his article this week's meeting, how to interpret the interest rate policy in the plan, the Fed officials are facing some communication challenges. According to Hilsenrath say, this challenge is that the Fed forecast the economy is back to health in the process at the same time, you should plan how to determine the low interest rate policy.

ForexLive Adam Buttom Fed watchers said recently, " The Fed's problem is that if you want to forward-looking guidance is valid, reliable and effective premise is to guide the content and if the Fed is now looking to change policy guidance content, then it means that this guidance at any time to change. "

Adam Buttom added, " If the Fed will raise interest rates this month, the threshold is raised to not less than 2.5% inflation rate and the unemployment rate back below 7%, then to the next meeting they can also lower the threshold for market, the Fed's credibility will thus frustrated, and forward-looking guidance will fail. "

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Local shipping industry began to pick up industry inflection point is approaching

At 12:06 on September 18, 2013 Author: Tong Dream ( 0 ) +1 I have something to say

DryShips Inc latest real-time quotes Company News Company Research Inst financial information transport industry clients

Text / Sina Finance columnist Tong Dream

China August macroeconomic data recently released in stages, in which PMI, PPI, import and export data, industrial output value and the total retail sales of social and many other indicators show that China's economy may have been through the most difficult period, the overall start gradually stabilizes. As the world's major consumer of commodities, China's economy to pick up on the global shipping industry has a decisive influence.

Measure the extent of the global shipping industry boom of the BDI (Baltic Dry cargo freight index) rose sharply recently, the index hit a 20 month high (Figure 1), only in September rose as high as 43%. Especially iron ore ship-based Capesize Index (BCI) rose the most, up 51.6 percent.

(Figure a) Baltic Dry cargo freight index chart

In addition, the new boat price index since last November has been hovering at around 126 points, indicating that the new ship prices have bottomed boat price stabilized (Figure 2). Ship prices will rebound shipbuilding industry has gained resonance, the world's largest shipping companies, South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries has announced that this year will be fully raised prices of new ships.

There are indications that, along with China and the European economy stabilized, the global shipping industry has bottomed out, the local market began to pick up. Shipping companies most difficult period is over, the entire industry will gradually bottom out. However, due to the current situation of excess transport capacity has not been significantly improved, industry recovery still need some time.

(Figure II) New ship worldwide Jiagezoushitu

Pooled analysis of industry earnings

Currently traded in the U.S. market share, including shipping DRYS , DSX, EGLE, GND, NM, SB, SBLK and VLCCF, etc. These companies have all announced 13Q2 earnings completed. Table 3 below summarizes some of the key financial indicators.

(Figure three) major shipping stocks 13Q2 summary financial indicators

Measure of profitability of the industry from the most critical indicators of TCE, almost all enterprises daily time charter equivalent well below year-ago levels, the net voyage revenue (voyage revenue) generally fell, indicating the shipping business conditions turn for the better yet.

Excluding one-off income and expenses, earnings per share of differentiation, some companies such as better cost control and SBLK SB recorded positive profit, EGLE and VLCCF profit up getting better. This indicator shows the major aviation enterprises by reducing the scale of operations, reduce costs of new vessels, controlling operating costs measures are yielding results, the loss rate gradually narrow, industry operating conditions stabilize. The good news is that the recent main ship hull Capesize and Panamax rental offer has soared well above the breakeven line, indicating aviation enterprises in the next quarter results may be significantly improved.

　　 A typical company's share price trend analysis

Capital markets are always one step ahead of the real economy. Despite the overall state of the shipping industry has not improved significantly, but some of the company's share price has recently soared out of the bottom area.

To which the market value of the largest enterprises DRYS as an example: The company's share price reached a record high in 2007 was $ 131, the subsequent financial crisis stock prices plummeted. Even SP500 from the second half of 2009 began a steady rise, the current has exceeded a record high, however, DRYS just follow the market price to $ 11.49, after a brief rally is still way down, until November 2012 hit a record low of $ 1.46. In recent months the stock price climbing steadily, last Friday (2013/9/13) closed at $ 2.9, lower price point rebounded doubled.

From the stock weekly charts of view (Figure IV), DRYS currently trying to break through the bottom area of long, short and medium-term moving average has been intertwined with upturned head to the current share price has exceeded 110 weeks line, but is still subject to 200 weeks line suppression. Expected stock price volatility climbed over time, the long-term average will gradually be repaired go flat and Alice head upward. From the weekly chart of view, any day can be regarded as short-term adjustment line of long-term investors buying opportunity.

(Figure IV) DRYS shares weekly charts

From DRYS's daily chart view (Figure V): Since the beginning of the year to become more active stock turnover, trading volume continued to enlarge. Share price broke through $ 2.3 and $ 2.6 in the vicinity of the resistance rapid ascent, the short, medium and long-term average has been formed long array, and began to spread upward. Line before rushing to Sunday this week price highs near $ 3.8 after the downward adjustment, as long as the previous high point support is not broken, remained to support short-term bullish.

(Figure V) DRYS shares daily charts

Limited to the length of the article, the same plate in the other movers paper will not enumerate. But you need to draw the reader's attention is the strongest pre-trend stocks NM and SB now up to the long-term pressure near the short-term needs consolidation. DSX, GNK, SBLK and VLCCF medium-term bottom has confirmed the formation. EGLE faced repression before the high point, if we can break through the $ 5.9 before the high will confirm the upward trend established. GNK currently venting the highest proportion, close to 30%, if the industry business conditions improved once confirmed, short covering may prompt the stock soared.

　　 Equity Investment Strategy

Macroeconomic data and industry analysis have shown that the global shipping industry is slowly turning the corner. Foresight of long-term capital market investors have begun layout. Due to the scale of individual investors and investment funds short window of time constraints, you can adopt a more flexible investment strategy.

For the investment cycle in years meter long-term investors can take advantage of the price of the machine slowly absorb callback industry leading stocks. For the medium and short-term investors , can prioritize lighter debt burden within the industry, has been getting better results for small and medium capitalization companies, the operation can be temporarily avoided going to face significant pressure on long-term equity position. In addition, investors can also consider shareholding spread investment risk through diversification.

　　 Investment Risk Warning

Highly correlated with macroeconomic shipping industry, industry performance tend to lag behind actual economic cycle. Global macroeconomic impact of any change in the share price performance in the industry. Therefore, the stock is more suitable for the shipping industry anti-risk ability of long-term investors. The above information is only as the exchange of investment does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should make their own assessment of their own risk tolerance and investment behavior.

More real-time stock market review, visit Sina (81.46, 1.46, 1.82%) microblogging: @ skipper Wall Street Journals

(The author describes: Dream Mr. Tong is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), career U.S. investors, Beacon Asset Management LLP fund managers.)

This paper the author Sina Finance exclusive license to use, please do not reprint. The speech does not mean that this site perspective.

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Thirty thousand U.S. dollars mark still trading

Monday Capesize freight rates continue to rise, more than a week ago, nearly 20%

Freight revenue has exceeded $ 30,000 per day mark, or even hit a few years before the arrival of the high.

Expect the upward trend means that the market for the strengthening of the people are concerned, they will be delighted to find that the same vessel in the same period in 2012 tariffs of only $ 5,900 / day.

The bets are still two people may be more willing to see, Panamax sector tariffs currently only $ 10,600. This means that, if it is a foregone Strongbow capesize rally the crossbow, is a small boat will catch up.

Capesize:

Australia to China route activity is not high, but in Dampier (Dampier) to Qingdao route, Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) is Zosco Hong kong wheel (built in 2010) to pay tariffs of up to $ 11.95 per ton, which Concerned about the recent trend of so many shipowners rejoice.

In addition, Richmark $ 12.27 per ton from Cargill (Cargill) lease a used Western Australia to Qingdao route.

In Saldanha Bay (Saldanha Bay) to Qingdao route, Anglo American to $ 12.27 per ton leased Navios Joy Wheel (built in 2013).

Cargill (Cargill) was 179,800 tons bit Besiktas wheel (built in 2011) to pay $ 27,000 for daily rent for from Dunkerque (Dunkirk) starting trans-Pacific routes.

Panamax:

Augustea to 12 month lease a Chinese ship - 75,700 tons bit Vivian wheel (built in 2002), on rent for $ 11,650.

75,400 tons bit Navios North Star wheel (built in 2005) to $ 12,000 per day leased for six to nine months.

PCL to $ 15,000 of 93,400 tons daily rent sign bit MBA Rosaria wheel (built in 2011), for China and India to Australia routes.

Cargill (Cargill) signed a 82,300 tons bit Coal Hunter wheel (built in 2006) for the SW Pass to Singapore and Japan routes, rental of $ 16,500 / day plus $ 650,000 in additional subsidies.

Louis Dreyfus new date for the North Pacific routes to rent 76,600 tons Tim bit Perani wheel (built in 2008), on rent for $ 11,250.

Handymax:

Western Bulk routes to Morocco to India leased 57,300 tons bit Butinah wheel (built in 2011), rent of $ 15,000 per day.

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知己知彼，百战不殆；

不知彼而知己，一胜一负；不知彼，

不知己，每战必殆。

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New Yangzi Shipbuilding for two 82,000 t bulk carrier orders

2013-09-18 08:37:41 Source: International Ship Web

Recently, the New Yangzi Shipbuilding ( Location Reviews News Job ) from Norway Torvald Klaveness Group received two 82,000 t-class Ka Musa type bulk carrier ( ship yard sale ) orders, new ship is expected to be delivered in 2015. Boat price does not publish, industry estimates of $ 27 million per vessel.
It is reported that the owner in July this year in New Yangzi Shipbuilding has ordered two 2500TEU container ship ( ship yard sale ).
Klaveness said earlier that the current newbuilding prices bottomed out in the case, custom-made dump bulk carriers, bulk carriers to take this opportunity to expand the fleet.

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This train going to move.

look like some fund is buy in today

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Headlands ship freight 3 month shot up four times the shipping industry hope of economic

Source: CBIW 2013-09-17 17:05:15

Amplified by Chinese demand for iron ore, the international shipping market, Capesize since mid-June this year, unilateral rise in rents wave higher than the wave. As of September 9, the four routes on the capesize average rent exceeded $ 25,000, compared with more than 5000 U.S. dollars in early June, shot up by more than four times, a record since last January 3 to 21 months new high.

In the capesize market led, driven by global shipping freight index (BDI) easily crossed one thousand point mark, soared to 1,478 points, compared with an increase of 85% in early June, the highest level in nearly two years. But other ship rose a lesser extent, in which rent is $ 8,836 Panama, only the relatively early in June rose 10%, while the Handysize market rents basically in origin, recovery is not obvious, a drag on the overall level of bulk freight.

China imported iron ore to make large-scale demand for Capesize blowout, once again the achievements of the international dry bulk shipping market. This year, the domestic steel prices continued to rise, steel prices in the country in July first time in years, " turn around" , capacity gradually released, ore demand.

According to the " Xinhua - China iron ore price index" shows that by the end of June, China iron ore port stocks (coastal 25 Hong Kong) was 75.28 million tons, while in July China's iron ore imports 73.14 million tons, representing an increase of 10.84 million in June ton, August and imported 69.01 million tons, an increase of 10.5%.

Although imports of super-normal, but the inventory is not increased but decreased. As of the end of August, the number of port stocks 74.75 million tons, compared with the end of June also decreased by 53 million tons. All these show that the recent steel enterprises demand for imported ore tremendous energy, moving from the first half of tepid, gradually becoming strong.

At present, the international iron ore offer has risen to $ 137 / ton relatively high, three international mining seize opportunities, will ship strong market enthusiasm for football boat, causing tension Capesize demand, with domestic sales of steel market, " Golden September and Silver October," the arrival Capesize expected to continue strong.

Chinese iron ore demand related to the sustainability of the shipping market in the future trend. From the recent price, mid-August steel prices have started to touch the top down, while iron and steel factory operating rate rises, stocks will rise, the price decline pressure behavior.

National Bureau's latest statistics show that China's crude steel production in August, 66.28 million tons, an increase of 12.8% monthly average daily production of 2,138,100 tons of crude steel, growth of 1.24%, ending March downward. January-August, China's total crude steel production of 521 million tons, an increase of 7.8%. 480 million tons of pig iron production in the country over the same period, an increase of 6.6%.

At the same time, environmental issues in North China's iron and steel enterprises for production release pressures. Recently, in response to Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas this winter weather heavy pollution, the State Council has indicated will increase accountability efforts, ineffective work, performance of their duties as a result of the absence of heavy pollution weather last three days, and will be the main leaders and leaders in charge accountable according to law. Once the policy is strictly implemented, iron and steel enterprise production release will be inhibited, ore demand may cool down, so the probability of a larger outlook tariff adjustment.

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BDI指数回升贸易形势改善 ,船厂蜂拥造海工船 ,

BDI近一个月涨超 60% 不代表 ?咸鱼翻生 ?

(this infor broker will no tell you)

Special orders scheduled to ship next year

Source: Guangzhou Daily 2013-09-18 10:59:54

In recent days, the shipping industry an important economic indicators BDI Baltic Dry Index continued to soar since the beginning of this year, or over 130%, the shipping industry to pick up a certain extent, indicates that signs of economic rebound, the BDI rose also lead to " see the shipping industry bottom " sound. However, some experts pointed out that the BDI Overall, only stage rise, enterprises also remain cautious. On the other hand, ships, port industry also did not show significant signs of recovery, there are shipyards said that now the shipbuilding industry have been busy, " transformation" , shipyards are manufactured offshore boats swarmed the next 3 to 5 years is the industry washing licensing phase.

Shipping industry: BDI rose over 60% for nearly a month does not mean that " revived"

Since September BDI index has surged 43.63 percent, nearly a month or up to 62.46%. BDI index rose, the industry generally concerned about whether this ushered in the shipping industry inflection point. But brokers noted that in the past six years, every freight rebound, there will be " shipping stocks bottomed out" point of view, but the freight index and stock prices as a deflated ball, despite a number of record breaking rally but ultimately lows.

A shipping company insiders, ever rising tariffs, some previously archived transportation tariffs will accelerate into the market to suppress short-term index trend does not explain what the current overhang of excess capacity in the market, the key will have to see the demand for the fourth quarter. " Now the most important thing is to ensure profitable shipping companies, and is the continuous development, so take are flexible business strategy, cost control stripping loss assets."

In this regard, the shipping expert Chen Yi said that this year the domestic steel prices continue to rise, " golden nine silver ten" is the domestic steel market, the traditional replenishment time, the timing of this year rose earlier, the situation is more rapid, but overall just phased increases.

In fact, BDI index speculation overseas funds have gradually become profitable way, Haitong Securities analyst BDI gold incense that short term financial attributes may have been beyond its maritime property, BDI Baltic miners rally also benefited from long-term transport Price FFA on profits. Zheng Wu Guoxin Securities analyst, said: " We have not been raised in recent years any shipping stocks rating, obviously this is not the typical style of the seller." For investors, often wait until tariffs rose only cause for concern, but because of lack of valuation benchmark, buying and selling of the time difficult to grasp.

Guoxin Securities Statistics data show that the tariffs from the past decade shows that 90% capacity utilization is the shipping sector performance and stock price elasticity threshold. The dry bulk shipping market vessel capacity utilization rate is only about 83% capacity utilization ship oil transport market is only about 82%, Cargo carriage market in Europe and America routes annual average rate of only about 85%.

Shipping industry: orders although warmer but concentrated in large enterprises

Yesterday, the reporter interviewed a number of shipbuilding business people, the industry is expected to pick up still too early to talk about now, and now the industry is still very cautious, enterprises are in rush orders grab food to eat, some small private shipyards due to financial, orders and other issues on the verge collapse. A large shipyard, told reporters that the shipping industry is expected to return to normal levels in 2015, while the shipbuilding industry will be more later.

Guangdong, a major shipyard said that recently some foreign customers to negotiate orders , but mainly concentrated in special vessels ship, the construction of the company's current booked next year, but most are marine vessels. " At present, very few orders dry bulk carriers, shipping companies have excess capacity can not easily make a lot of orders, we currently have twenty-three dry bulk carriers, do not do after delivery."

Some analysts pointed out that the dry bulk orders less, partly because of excess capacity in the market, dry bulk carriers constructed low threshold, some domestic shipyard is the high energy consumption, high operating costs of dry bulk carriers.

Data show that the new access orders will continue to maintain upward trend this year, a substantial increase in the ship owner clients in the context of a ~ August new orders accumulated 72.73 million DWT, an increase of 89%. SW analysis pointed out that the gradual decline in the delivery of new vessels and the slow recovery in demand will drive the ship utilization improved, thus boosting freight index and new orders to maintain upward trend.

The person said, although the industry's orders began to pick up, but the shipping price is still low, orders are concentrated to the industry's leading enterprises, small and medium shipyards is still very difficult, some of the leading enterprises rely on subsidies to the shipbuilding industry and other fixed-order business.

Shipyard build offshore boats swarming

Currently, shipbuilding enterprises also have a dry bulk vessel from the traditional to high-value-added specialty boat market. Yesterday, COSCO's a company official said, is now restructuring the shipbuilding industry, whether private or state-owned shipyards are manufactured offshore vessels swarmed ship, industry capacity in the future may face overcapacity situation. While the global offshore oil and gas development offshore engineering equipment continued to be active so that steady growth in demand in the first half, the global marine equipment orders totaled $ 33 billion, representing an increase of 22.2% over the same period last year. This year, Chinese enterprises new contracts amounted to $ 8 billion, second only to South Korea's $ 14 billion enterprise.

Data show that from January to July of domestic shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size export delivery value of 163.4 billion yuan to complete, down 10.2%. But in other sub-sectors have declined delivery value of the occasion, marine equipment manufacturing industry is " thriving" , from January to July rose 43.8%.

A broker pointed out that, subject to the delivery orders ship price reduction and the reduction of the shipyard next 2 to 3 years is still in the bottom of the range, which rises in restricted stock. A new round of marine support measures will effectively control the production capacity, increase recycling and order to focus on the core shipyard.

Port industry: Throughput up by 10.7%

Second half of the traditional " transport season" on port production has played a certain role in boosting. Ministry of Communications recently released data show that from January to August of above-scale port cargo throughput increased by 10.7% compared to last year, foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 9.8 percent this year, total container throughput up 8.2 percent from the last few months the situation , port throughput growth and stability.

Analysis: BDI index rebounded trade situation improved

It is understood that multi-port cargo throughput hit a new high last month, has pointed out that the port staff, from the port of arrival and records can be seen, in August, a total of 134 ships and mega ship out of Lianyungang Port, which is the second this year in January Lianyungang Port large ships entering and leaving Hong Kong 132 trips after the latest record. In addition, the company's revenue growth was essentially listed port throughput growth and consistent. But the situation first-half results, ports corporate profits stabilize, no increase in interest income situation under control.

But Shanghai international shipping center analysis also pointed out that in the second quarter when the global port steady trend still continues, but the range is limited, not as the expected level, due to the current weak economic environment is not yet undergone any substantial changes in the global port industry or the road to recovery become more lengthy.

It is understood, BDI index in addition to the primary commodity market price movements of the vane, to some extent, also the world's leading economic indicator. Since the end of June, BDI index slow recovery from the side also shows the international trade situation in the continuous improvement of the recovery in commodity prices also rose.

Since August, the economic data have been released, more and more signals of economic recovery, including the U.S. economic recovery, the European Economic obvious signs of bottoming out, Chinese economic data. BDI continued to soar since September 1600 break point, which also makes the market more optimistic about the future economic situation.

It is worth noting that the BDI rose persistent difficult to judge, but in the 2000 index is still below the breakeven point, on the other hand, the traditional peak season affect transportation, port throughput in 1 to August to maintain a rapid growth, But the situation is still untold container port development improved.