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In recent days, the shipping industry an important economic indicators BDI Baltic Dry Index continued to soar since the beginning of this year, or over 130%, the shipping industry to pick up a certain extent, indicates that signs of economic rebound, the BDI rose also lead to " see the shipping industry bottom " sound. However, some experts pointed out that the BDI Overall, only stage rise, enterprises also remain cautious. On the other hand, ships, port industry also did not show significant signs of recovery, there are shipyards said that now the shipbuilding industry have been busy, " transformation" , shipyards are manufactured offshore boats swarmed the next 3 to 5 years is the industry washing licensing phase.

Shipping industry: BDI rose over 60% for nearly a month does not mean that " revived"

Since September BDI index has surged 43.63 percent, nearly a month or up to 62.46%. BDI index rose, the industry generally concerned about whether this ushered in the shipping industry inflection point. But brokers noted that in the past six years, every freight rebound, there will be " shipping stocks bottomed out" point of view, but the freight index and stock prices as a deflated ball, despite a number of record breaking rally but ultimately lows.

A shipping company insiders, ever rising tariffs, some previously archived transportation tariffs will accelerate into the market to suppress short-term index trend does not explain what the current overhang of excess capacity in the market, the key will have to see the demand for the fourth quarter. " Now the most important thing is to ensure profitable shipping companies, and is the continuous development, so take are flexible business strategy, cost control stripping loss assets."

In this regard, the shipping expert Chen Yi said that this year the domestic steel prices continue to rise, " golden nine silver ten" is the domestic steel market, the traditional replenishment time, the timing of this year rose earlier, the situation is more rapid, but overall just phased increases.

In fact, BDI index speculation overseas funds have gradually become profitable way, Haitong Securities analyst BDI gold incense that short term financial attributes may have been beyond its maritime property, BDI Baltic miners rally also benefited from long-term transport Price FFA on profits. Zheng Wu Guoxin Securities analyst, said: " We have not been raised in recent years any shipping stocks rating, obviously this is not the typical style of the seller." For investors, often wait until tariffs rose only cause for concern, but because of lack of valuation benchmark, buying and selling of the time difficult to grasp.

Guoxin Securities Statistics data show that the tariffs from the past decade shows that 90% capacity utilization is the shipping sector performance and stock price elasticity threshold. The dry bulk shipping market vessel capacity utilization rate is only about 83% capacity utilization ship oil transport market is only about 82%, Cargo carriage market in Europe and America routes annual average rate of only about 85%.

Shipping industry: orders although warmer but concentrated in large enterprises

Yesterday, the reporter interviewed a number of shipbuilding business people, the industry is expected to pick up still too early to talk about now, and now the industry is still very cautious, enterprises are in rush orders grab food to eat, some small private shipyards due to financial, orders and other issues on the verge collapse. A large shipyard, told reporters that the shipping industry is expected to return to normal levels in 2015, while the shipbuilding industry will be more later.

Guangdong, a major shipyard said that recently some foreign customers to negotiate orders , but mainly concentrated in special vessels ship, the construction of the company's current booked next year, but most are marine vessels. " At present, very few orders dry bulk carriers, shipping companies have excess capacity can not easily make a lot of orders, we currently have twenty-three dry bulk carriers, do not do after delivery."

Some analysts pointed out that the dry bulk orders less, partly because of excess capacity in the market, dry bulk carriers constructed low threshold, some domestic shipyard is the high energy consumption, high operating costs of dry bulk carriers.

Data show that the new access orders will continue to maintain upward trend this year, a substantial increase in the ship owner clients in the context of a ~ August new orders accumulated 72.73 million DWT, an increase of 89%. SW analysis pointed out that the gradual decline in the delivery of new vessels and the slow recovery in demand will drive the ship utilization improved, thus boosting freight index and new orders to maintain upward trend.

The person said, although the industry's orders began to pick up, but the shipping price is still low, orders are concentrated to the industry's leading enterprises, small and medium shipyards is still very difficult, some of the leading enterprises rely on subsidies to the shipbuilding industry and other fixed-order business.

Shipyard build offshore boats swarming

Currently, shipbuilding enterprises also have a dry bulk vessel from the traditional to high-value-added specialty boat market. Yesterday, COSCO's a company official said, is now restructuring the shipbuilding industry, whether private or state-owned shipyards are manufactured offshore vessels swarmed ship, industry capacity in the future may face overcapacity situation. While the global offshore oil and gas development offshore engineering equipment continued to be active so that steady growth in demand in the first half, the global marine equipment orders totaled $ 33 billion, representing an increase of 22.2% over the same period last year. This year, Chinese enterprises new contracts amounted to $ 8 billion, second only to South Korea's $ 14 billion enterprise.

Data show that from January to July of domestic shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size export delivery value of 163.4 billion yuan to complete, down 10.2%. But in other sub-sectors have declined delivery value of the occasion, marine equipment manufacturing industry is " thriving" , from January to July rose 43.8%.

A broker pointed out that, subject to the delivery orders ship price reduction and the reduction of the shipyard next 2 to 3 years is still in the bottom of the range, which rises in restricted stock. A new round of marine support measures will effectively control the production capacity, increase recycling and order to focus on the core shipyard.

Port industry: Throughput up by 10.7%

Second half of the traditional " transport season" on port production has played a certain role in boosting. Ministry of Communications recently released data show that from January to August of above-scale port cargo throughput increased by 10.7% compared to last year, foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 9.8 percent this year, total container throughput up 8.2 percent from the last few months the situation , port throughput growth and stability.

Analysis: BDI index rebounded trade situation improved

It is understood that multi-port cargo throughput hit a new high last month, has pointed out that the port staff, from the port of arrival and records can be seen, in August, a total of 134 ships and mega ship out of Lianyungang Port, which is the second this year in January Lianyungang Port large ships entering and leaving Hong Kong 132 trips after the latest record. In addition, the company's revenue growth was essentially listed port throughput growth and consistent. But the situation first-half results, ports corporate profits stabilize, no increase in interest income situation under control.

But Shanghai international shipping center analysis also pointed out that in the second quarter when the global port steady trend still continues, but the range is limited, not as the expected level, due to the current weak economic environment is not yet undergone any substantial changes in the global port industry or the road to recovery become more lengthy.

It is understood, BDI index in addition to the primary commodity market price movements of the vane, to some extent, also the world's leading economic indicator. Since the end of June, BDI index slow recovery from the side also shows the international trade situation in the continuous improvement of the recovery in commodity prices also rose.

Since August, the economic data have been released, more and more signals of economic recovery, including the U.S. economic recovery, the European Economic obvious signs of bottoming out, Chinese economic data. BDI continued to soar since September 1600 break point, which also makes the market more optimistic about the future economic situation.

It is worth noting that the BDI rose persistent difficult to judge, but in the 2000 index is still below the breakeven point, on the other hand, the traditional peak season affect transportation, port throughput in 1 to August to maintain a rapid growth, But the situation is still untold container port development improved.