Latest Posts By elfinchilde
- Elite
About elfinchilde
|
|
| 14-Jan-2009 11:45 |
COSCO SHP SG
/
COSCO charting
 Go to Message
|
||||
 x 0
 x 0
|
and reveal their identities? generally, it's impolite to reveal who's doing what while it's running. After it's done though, probably no problem. pls understand, i still want to live. and
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 14-Jan-2009 11:42 |
SingaporeLandGrp
/
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
augh! and i haven't bought it yet!! *bangs head on wall* lol. g'luck to those vested! :)))) |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 14-Jan-2009 11:39 |
COSCO SHP SG
/
COSCO charting
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
edit: just in case: i should add that i agree that if you're talking longterm, then yuppers, there's no buy for cosco unless it can cross at least 105 convincingly. preferably 1.2, since that's the major resistance. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 14-Jan-2009 11:30 |
COSCO SHP SG
/
COSCO charting
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
from today's data: one house selling, at least two houses buying. i lay probability bets for a long, cosco. buy sub 85, tp 965 by pre-CNY. max 105. caveat applies, not vested. just being mischevious. 
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 16:59 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
oops, my bad. 
on DBS: it's a pantang kantang BB playing it. so i won't be surprised if they decide to end it at 808 for today. 
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 15:04 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
livermore: ah yea. if one was lucky enough to buy at 1475, then just hold. the only problem is that with human nature, most would not buy at 1475. ticklish, ordinarily i'd prefer folks to learn to do their own TA. this is to lessen the chances of myself getting blamed for others' bad trades. :P but DBS for now, since its calculations are rather involved: ack. FA-wise, not a buy on any count. TA-wise, need to be careful: because the rights issue dilute the px by 1/3. ie, you need to skew your graphical count by 1/3. Their issue px is surprisingly high though. At 5.42, means "fair px" for DBS is calculated at ~8.13. Supports: If we do a technical count of 887 (oct 28 '08) as lowest low px for DBS CR, means XR, DBS worst-case scenario should be ~7.72. Tech support was 9 CR, so XR the support is 7.8. ..which also means that it may not be worth punting on the R500 issue. 2.7 is too high a premium. foreigners still tanking the counter. i see more than one big name in it. suspect the recent run up was to do a 'pump and dump', as local slang has it. some more rumors surrounding it. market depth queues are thin; below 810, 800 is the major support. frankly, i'd rather avoid it. when in doubt, rather not enter. Foreign names should be buying it if they believe in it; not dumping it. caveat applies. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 09:53 |
CapitaLand
/
CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0
|
"There should be a buy signal generated within this week; and the sell next week or week after. " My ideal buy wld be about 275 actually. but large lots appear to be entering now. one needs to prep two strikes: 1st around now, 2nd to reserve for 240-250, just in case. I'm waiting for Hang Seng open to see 1st. then 1st target 326, then 370. if it breaks 326 intraday (rather than close of day), it'll hit higher. Even at 326, it presents an attractive 10% premium at current prices. vol is impt. count the vol. ~132mil starting from today. caveat applies to all the above pls. Remember this is a very precise forward call. the elf accepts no responsibility for your loss or gain. pls make own buy/sell decision, and trade within your own comfort. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 09:44 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
thanks AK. hope you've had a good capricorn effect. :) let's look forward to Obama and CNY effect. 
to summarise capland's PVA analysis: 1) Capland generates on average only two proper trade signals a month. 2) Better entry for capland is on a DCA, called on S/R lines. 3) Exit for capland can be called quite accurately on williams 14. Best exit is the morning after a ramp up. 4) capland's ramps are either one or two day ramp up. (Hence one does NOT buy capland on the day after a ramp up). 5) Profile of traders in capland: fast movers, time needed to watch the counter while market is moving. No going for 2 hr meeting if you're playing this counter pls. 6) vol to control capland this time around is about 132mil. Added info not in my blog: foreigners in this counter. ML adores capland, amongst others. And this did NOT come from me. 
7) Buy signal for capland likely to be generated this week (my guess is today). Sell signal will be next week/week after. 326 first stop point, real target is 370. Note: watch the rights issue rumors. Happy trading. Caveat applies pls. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 09:37 |
CapitaLand
/
CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/pva-study-anatomy-of-capitaland.html here. for the interested, a detailed tech study of capland. TA is a very useful tool; once understood, it gives you not only the stock characteristics, but also the method of playing it, and the entry and exit strategies. Beware, it's a long read. There should be a buy signal generated within this week; and the sell next week or week after. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 09:34 |
Others
/
Home Trading
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
betting, trading, speculating, investing. call it as you like it. I don't quite care the terminology as long as it makes money. heehee. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 12-Jan-2009 09:33 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
"The problem that could happen is that you sell and the stock continues to go up. Then you try to buy back, it falls. You could totally mess up your positions. Maybe for some after they sold, and it continues to go up, and then they hope for it to come down to the price where they sold the stock at but it never happens. Then years later they find the stock is way up in the sky. Market is so volatile that sometimes it is very hard to be precise." The other problem with closing one's eyes is that the stock falls. Eg, if you had bought stocks a year ago at DJIA 14,000. or STI 3,800. Or if you had invested in the NIK for the past 20 years. You'd be down, not up. Also the question: why the obsession with that single stock after you sold it? There are so many others. Messing up one's positions only happens if you did not plan beforehand. It is true though, that for those without technical skills, it's far better to just sit in and consciously DCA longterm in good blue chips, rather than trying to ride in and out. Overtrading dilutes profit. And TA and trading is not for everyone. An interesting and involved read for those who want to know more about TA. I've given a detailed study of capitaland. Beware, it's a long read. Ordinarily though, a techie would make a buy/sell call in 5 min flat, because what i've written out are the analytical processes, which should be in your head and near intuitive. ...and if your eyes glaze over and you can't finish the article, and get impatient and go "Just tell me buy or sell!", then perhaps you're not quite cut out to be a trader. :P http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/pva-study-anatomy-of-capitaland.html |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 11-Jan-2009 15:29 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/to-be-full-time-trader.html 'ere we go. beware it's a long post, but it consolidates my recent separate posts in SJ on becoming a full time trader. for those interested in this potential occupation only. most important thing is: It's NOT as easy as it sounds/looks. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 11-Jan-2009 14:29 |
Others
/
Home Trading
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
edit: for those curious about figures, the hard calculations (just mine): in order to start out: MINIMUM requirements, such that there is a small margin of safety: 50k free cash as capital. a basket of about 10-20 stocks that you watch: this is your trading list. you should trade only 2-4 times, max 5x a month. Do NOT trade more than this, because it either means you're getting impulsive and buying everything in sight, or that you're making wrong judgment calls. Also: the more entries/exits you make, the higher the chances for error (buyer's remorse, etc) for which you can expect to flip about 4-5k on average a month, if you're good. a more realistic figure for beginners would probably be about 2-3k a month. remember: you do not need to get it all; you only need to get enough. So risk accordingly. And actually, rather than trying to milk a lot out of your funds and getting stressed, the first aim of a trader is consistency. ie, how much can you comfortably make a month, without overreaching yourself? Since from there, it is a simple scale-up operation. ie, don't aim to make "tons of money". Aim to make consistent money at the beginning. And the hardest thing to do, ironically, is the easiest. Once you've hit your monthly target, to shut off the screen and not trade anymore. hope this helps anyone who's interested. above is just my personal view, so caveat applies as per usual. :) |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 11-Jan-2009 14:20 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0
|
they are what are known as bear market rallies. which may be from 3% to 20% (from the history of the DJIA and NIK). So do not be fooled by them. As long as counters do not breakout and do a successful retest, it should be taken always that they are still in regular consolidation mode (ie, up and down within a given range--very wide for some counters.). given the global economic front, i'm not surprised if they dingdong up and down for the next 3-6 months. what can be note though is that markets historically recover 6 mths before the economy recovers. so those planning for longterm, if you expect end of recession in early 2010, then that gives the timeline of when your funds should be in by. cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 11-Jan-2009 14:16 |
Others
/
Home Trading
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
yes, i'm trading full time currently. if you wish to be a fulltime trader: you need: funds, experience in the market, and discipline. Technical or FA skills would be good, and i don't just mean basic TA skills like williams down = buy, williams up = sell. you need to know the intricacies of each stock like the back of your hand; the players in it; how does the stock usually move. keep in mind though, that i've been trading part time for more than 7 years before finally doing this. experience is necessary; also, as i posted elsewhere: a certain very rational cold-bloodedness. you don't fall in love with a stock, and you need to move exactly as your indicators tell you to do, even if it means going against popular opinion: which also means your technical/reading skills have to be excellent before you can trust your own reading. scotty is right too: forget about making tons of money, especially at the start. if you risk for that right at the start, chances are that you'll be part of the 95% who goes bust. also: be prepared to blow a few accounts before you finally get it right. what i advocate: start out parttime first; really practice, then when your trading can pull in equal to your salary, quit your job, part time work, full time trade. this way, you have an income stream still. whatever it is, NEVER quit your job and go fulltime trading with no experience or funds in hand. that's a sure-fire recipe for disaster. dreams and reality are two different things. or as they say, "The market is a very expensive place to find yourself." cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 11-Jan-2009 14:09 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
don't quite agree, livermore....many successful small trades do add up: it depends on how many lots you buy. 2c profit, if your stock is a 20c stock, that's 10%. if one trades in 100s of lots at one time, it's 2k money each time. ie, the no of lots, and the % profit matters in determining if it's a 'small profit' or a large one. of course, if it's only 2c on a $2 stock, that's kinda silly to be chasing that. but, always waiting for the big one, you may miss everything else along the way. agree however that it only takes one big loss to wipe it all out: which is why risk management/stop loss is very important. most newbies get caught because they fail to stop loss. also: most people overtrade. that's why in the long run, most do better just sitting in longterm, rather than going in and out of the market. since the more entries/exits one makes, the greater the likelihood of error, as impulse becomes stronger the longer you face the market without making a move. that is human nature. it is what needs to be conquered to be successful. bottomline is that it's not easy being a trader. you need discipline above all else; not to trade everyday, and to go in only like a SWAT operation, really. Disciplined, timed strikes, with entry and exit strategies, contingencies all planned out. my estimate for the STI is ~1750 this time around. there's a support abt 1760 or so, with 1800 forming a psych support. cosco being tanked by a big player (foreign name), so folks in it, pls watch out. fyi only; usual caveat applies. not vested in it. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 08-Jan-2009 14:06 |
Others
/
Your Biggest Loss so far and its % of Invested Amt
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0
|
hi equator, apologies first for my belated reply (am on hols still): but on stop losses and 'is it normal for beginner traders' etc: yes, most novice traders usually bust their accounts. it's what we call tuition fees to the market. been there done that myself long ago.
consider it positively though: a learning experience, since the adage of 'once bitten twice shy' holds true. the thing is this: if you truly wish to become a trader, then to make up your mind and discipline yourself, such that you lower the risk of exposing yourself to such losses again (25% of invested capital). a lot of people give up after losses, however, and will avoid the market or become very negative, doubting people who can succeed in it. that is merely negative image projection on their part. the fact is that there are successful traders out there. but there are very few. because what is required to be a full time trader (which is what i'm currently doing) are the qualities of extreme rationality--to the point of cold-bloodedness, if i may say so--and coolness under pressure. Discipline is a must. Never fall in love with a stock, never hesitate to cut loss. Also: always move on. Remember: hindsight is perfect. No sense kicking yourself for something you "missed", because that is knowledge with hindsight, not foresight. important tho to learn theh trends, so that when they repeat, you know what's more likely to happen. Openness of mind helps too: we gotta realise that each individual is different, so you'll have to, in time, create a strategy that works for yourself. strategy-wise, there are many. some play short term, some play longterm. it's entirely up to you to find out. you need to become so familiar with the counters in your hand that you literally live and breathe them, and know what every tick is likely to mean. Note: key word is likely, not definitely. Because NO ONE can ever know 100% sure what the market is going to do. For myself, as a techie, it's all about probability. we simply try to be more than 50% accurate. the rest of it is about money management and risk managemnet. if i may say so: i suspect you may not have approportioned your funds rightly? and calculated risk-reward rightly. such that even with a stop loss in place, the loss was 25%? because with stop losses rightly applied, as a trader (contrary to longterm investor), you should ideally not be taking such huge losses on overall capital. may be good to sit down, and calmly assess yourself: what are your strengths in trading, what are your flaws? and then to derive rules that help you yourself. they can be simple things, eg, not trading between 0900-0915 on the day after a DJIA rally (if you are of an impulsive nature, for instance). or to stick only with certain types of stocks. to continue or to give up trading: what does your heart say? only you will know the right decision. be aware however, that it is not easy to be a successful trader. the 'failure rate' is 95%. hope this helps, cheers! |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 08-Jan-2009 13:48 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
heya, thanks for the comments, ticklish8. :) SupremeA: vol high cos funds have been buying Asia for past two/three weeks. it's good though, to finally see the breach of 2 bil again. my expectation is back to regular mode (consolidation mode) tho, since the breakout is on overbought levels and most of the counters stochs were turning/have turned. so let's just see how it goes. note to all: capland: rumors of rights issue, hence the earlier ramp and dive. onesharer: got here dec 15 (or was it earlier...hmm...). didn't rub shoulders with Obama, but saw his cruise boat (and he had a helicopter on deck too! o_0 ). still here and absolutely loving it.
cheers! btw: one more tip for the newbies: this capricorn effect is what is known as a bear market rally. bear market rallies can be from 3% to as much as 20% (track the history of the NIK, you'll see what i mean), so really, considering the global economic data coming out, it isn't quite 'recovery-->rally'. From the US side, the analysts are expecting feb to retouch the lows. am quite certain though that spore market has bottomed. but to note that bottoming and recovery are two different things. ie, stocks can play around a range for 6 months or more. and these ranges may be wide. so don't get caught buying at the highs, as per blog warning. |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 07-Jan-2009 06:57 |
Others
/
things every retail investor/trader should know
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/and-new-year-begins.html greetings, peeps, from the sunny isles of Hawaii. I trust most have had a good Capricorn effect. cheers and back to hols! :D |
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
| 04-Dec-2008 16:58 |
Straits Times Index
/
STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
Go to Message
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0
|
heya, just a general note to all: those using wave, elliot and fibonacci should take note that the initial parameters for use include having a 1) large enough sample size, 2) such that movement is approaching random. mathematically, it's about a large enough sample size such that behaviour is mathematically natural. ours is a closed market--very easy to control it up or down, relative for the BBs. ie, the STI does not fulfil the initial parameter requirements for use of tools like fibo etc, since ours isn't a natural number movement. esp at this period of time: the total vol is only 1 bil usually. cf to previous bull run, where regular vol was 4bil and even higher. which is why tech use has to be different. so cashiertan, my guess is that likely your feel for the other two markets is better, because their sample size is large enough such that overall movement approaches random: ie, TA like fib is more accurate for these markets. above is just my 2 cents ultra-geek opinion. lol. they'll bail out the auto makers, one way or another. it's just wayang now.
|
||||
| Good Post Bad Post | |||||
you want me to get killed ah? 
, i'm not a bro! | First < Newer 21-40 of 2759 Older> Last |