Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 17-Apr-2007 16:12 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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eh....bunnie, i wasn't being sensitive lah. but just reread my post and realised that haha, it did come across as me being defensive. that the trouble with online media with no face-to-face interaction. sigh. anyhow, am pretty sure zhuge_liang didn't refer to me (i'm thickskinned aren't i :P), my reply was more a general reply on my own style; i took his post as the chance to elaborate on why i post the way i do. primarily 'cos i'm quite uncomfortable with ppl referring to me as shijie/guru/'you're damn zhun' etc. it breeds a certain mentality where ppl will just follow me just 'cos i express interest in a counter, and i don't want that. 'cos to me, FA, TA, whatever method doesn't matter. the main idea is to find a trading style that suits your personality and goal. WHich is what i've always been saying. That means ppl have to make up their own minds, and not just buy in 'cos someone says buy. That's no dif from gambling. so anyhow, main point is that i don't wnat ppl to just blindly follow me; but the same way i do: take the opinions of everyone here with a pinch of salt, learn from all here, and then make your own investment decisions. so no; wasn't being defensive in response to zhuge liang. but from the charts am seeing an inordinate amount of herd instinct. so took chance to clear air on my style. k gotta go, boss calling. |
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| 17-Apr-2007 09:47 |
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hey...wasn't going to log in today since still sick and at work, but in light of zhuge_liang's post, felt i had to reply to that just in case: I'll normally give the techs only on counters that i'm watching. and if you realise, i never issue an actual buy/sell call, since i believe it's wholly up to each individual to decide, according to their investment goals and personalities. where someone is content with a 10% increase, another person might want 25%. so both these ppl have different goals. their trading styles must be different. That's why i end off all my tech calls with 'caveat emptor', or 'make up your own minds'. 'cos fact is, no matter what the techs read, there's always a possibility that i can be wrong. i've never said i'm a 100% oracle, and i'll never say that. No one can. which is partly why i prefer my posts to be detailed, actually. 'cos if you just say 'this stock is going to go up'. yea, it might, but my qn is, where's the evidence. since to me, it's evidence that's important. o/w, it's just talk up, it's just blind hope. I've never seen the GMG and Best World threads, so i can't comment there. but really, investing is a zero sum game. if ppl are going to follow a buy in just because they read on some forum 'chiong ah!', then, who's to blame but themselves? greed at work. as for negative views. haha. i can tell you why i don't post negative news: because ppl don't like to read them. I did it once, on starcruises. I called a tech sell weeks ago at 41c. Kena blasted which is why i'm never going back in that thread. Fact is, ppl only like to hear good news. anyhow zhuge_liang, you're one of the better forumers in here; i read your posts. so do keep posting and don't let the rest put you off yea. The rest of it, let ppl judge for themselves. An astute investor will know how to do so. Don't gotta fret about anything else. tata. |
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| 16-Apr-2007 22:07 |
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ok, elf had wanted to post the techs on two counters, kim eng (ke) and edmi, since they're beautiful techs on what can only be cornered/accumulated stocks, but in different ways. but apologies, i'm starting to fall sick fast again, so havta cut this short. will do ke. gege, i read in edmi post that you're going to write up a report on edmi/smb? if you'll kindly let me tumpang the techs in for you there? 'cos i'm sure readers will find it interesting; and perhaps for those who are less word-inclined, the techs will give a clearer pic. since i'm not sure as to the final story on edmi, but the techs give me enough story on it already: am pretty sure our conclusions are the same. can? anyhow: ke. try to follow my thought processes: it's the deduction process that makes it interesting. 1) for those of you who have been watching it: if you see via poems (or any server that can let you see buy up/sell down) what you'll notice for ke past few weeks is sell downs. practically the entire day screen will be sell downs, with exceptions of a few small buy ups. the exception is today, when there were some large buy ups. 2) now, normally when a stock shows all sell downs, it's a sign of bearishness, isn't it? cue to firehouse sell, really. 3) but then, look at your lead indicators: A/D and C/O. they show consistent uptrend since abt 15th mar, actually, even earlier if you look at longer trend patterns: 22nd dec at 1.37 was the start of the accumulation for KE. 4) ok, so when pure buy/sell data contradicts A/D and C/O, there's normally one conclusion: the lead indicators are inaccurate. 5) However: match this up with the price trend. (use SJ: 1st chart bar chart, 2nd and 3rd A/D and C/O). what do you see? the lead indicators are accurate. because practically all the peaks and troughs coincide with A/D and C/O peaks and troughs. Verified by RSI and Williams--esp the latter since this is a trending market---the signs are going crazy for buy up, for accumulation. 6) which leaves a conclusion: the buy up/sell down data is inaccurate. 7) but then, you know that buy up/sell down can't possibly be inaccurate. Hence, there is only one possibility then: passive accumulation. i.e., instead of like a normal person, queuing at a fixed price for the no: of lots you want, someone (or likely, some BB) has been accumulating KE on the quiet, not by putting a buy up price, but by mopping up every single sell quote that comes along. Because look at it this way: RSI, Williams, A/D and C/O all read up; but the freaking data reads sell down for days, weeks in fact (i've been tracking this guy). And you know the first four indicators are accurate. so the only conclusion is that something big is happening with KE. Some guy is mopping it up, and from the looks of it, starting to get impatient. hehe. today, we see large buy quotes of 100 lots plus. for those interested, fibo target is 1.85-1.9. Note the FA for KE: NTA of 1.48, div of 9c. So you're essentially supported by a fair value of 1.57. pls note that the above is wholly my deduction/analysis. I might be wholly wrong, since i don't know the FA details, nor whatever insider story there might be. but from the mathematics, the techs, this is the story that is being told. Only one conclusion. KE is being freaking bought up on the sly. Beautiful, ain't it? ;) EDMI. long story short, the 3rd wave upside is to 54c. The 5th is going to be very interesting, because it's breaking the fibo pattern: no retracement. those in the know can calculate the upside hence. hehe. Caution on rushing to buy in tho: note that it's a cornered stock. and you really must decide for yourself if the upside is worth the risk. but sorry, another cornered stock for another time. elf is getting very tired. too physically weak for my own good. meh.  bunniee.....i need a hug. *wail*
singaporegal, i used to have a silky too when i was a child. no more pets tho; my mum really dislikes animals. i had hamsters tho. adorable furballs. :))))) and yea, ipunter is right! when you tame them from birth, they're so perfectly tame and sit in your hand. i still have pictures. meh. i miss my pets. wailllll.....bunnieee.....kittennnn....waillll........ sorry. hehe. when i get sick, i get manja. hehe. or hell, i think i'm just naturally manja. bwah ahahaaa. nights all! :) |
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| 16-Apr-2007 15:58 |
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haha bunnie beat me to it: yea, i was just abt to say don't bully my godpa leh....why does he havta buy drinks for so many ppl?! haha. :P eastonbay, read your post on stland. ok, sake on you. keke. anyone watching edmi? it's taking a breather now, thank goodness. hehe. bunnie must be one happy pet man....keke. does chinkiasu really work for animal planet??? ahhhhhh.....and ahhhh, singaporegal, a silky terrier! i used to have one when i was a child. they're adorable. :)))) ok la. got very interesting tech story to tell with regards to cornered stocks, think basserahmed wld be interested, but at work now so not so nice to. mebbe tonight. cya guys, hang on to your money! 
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| 16-Apr-2007 15:54 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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keke yea gege, we're square. and you copy meeeee!!! elf went in edmi again this morning too. :P very interesting techs on it, i'll tell the story later tonight; fully suspecting something up with this counter but i don't know the FA details, so gotta leave that to vic later. but working now so no time to watch market/tell detailed story. it's abt cornered stocks. baseerahmed, if you're here, watch for elf post tonight. the techs for cornered stocks are really beautiful. cheers for now! :) |
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| 15-Apr-2007 23:21 |
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hey, my kitten's online! *hugs* keke. yea fortunegal, i lost bunnie's long line 'poem' abt who's treating who man... o_0 and after hearing abt your neighbour's dogs....erm. ok, i'll stick to my kitten and bunnie. at the very least, i don't havta clean up after them. :P k all, nites! gege, stop spending so much time on stocks! shoo! :P sweet dreams all, elf's head is hurting. sigh. |
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| 15-Apr-2007 23:17 |
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Loan and Debts....
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hm ok...i think it's a bad habit to borrow money (speaking for the average person and not a down-and-out beggar etc)...unless you're really desperate, or extraordinary circumstances (sudden illness causing large hospital bills etc), it likely means you're not controlling your spending enough. likely using it to fund some gambling habit or whatever. in which case, lenders can be prepared never to get their money back. Agree with vic etc that once you lend money, be prepared never to get it back. and haha, godpa, i like your strategy! :P having said that tho; i did lend $$ to a friend once, to pay off uni fees. Did pay it back eventually, so that's good. but yea, i won't be lending out in future anymore. think money ruins relationships. |
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| 15-Apr-2007 20:41 |
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wah....i'm out of action for just the weekend and so many posts...can't keep up...one by one... firstly, thanks to all for the well wishes. :) elf's been sleeping most of the past 4 days. standard schedule, wake up, take medicine, fall asleep, wake up, take medicine, sleep. repeat cycle. bunnie my dearest, don't worry, i won't ever lelong you away. too precious to. :))) so godpa, don't worry, you don't havta buy her off open market. haha. and kitten, don't be sad... *patpat* elf lelonged you only 'cos you said you wanted company wat....haha. if no one wants you, it's ok... i always got space in my heart for a stray. :) haha. yea. i like doggies...ah singaporegal!! what kind of terrier???? :)))) and yea, j3rom3, my mum doesn't like animals too. sigh. cats respond to me tho. i just have to meow at them and they'll come to me. actually, animals generally respond to me. nature of the elf. hehe. mebbe that's why i have a kitten and a bunnie with the temperament of a kitten. haha. :P and erm. kitten, your 2nd flower is actually a gerbera....i like daisies, but you seldom get them in singapore tho. too fragile. meaning: innocence. they grow all over the Italian countryside and in San Francisco in the spring, it's so beautiful. kitten can bring a rose for elf if we ever happen to meet up. hehe. or a white iris. altho, general advice is, if you're bringing flowers for the ladies, bring them for all. :P watering holes. oh yea, elf drinks like a fish. rather unfortunate for my liver. haha. wine's good. am shifting to sake now tho...if kitten is into wine just lemme know. my family imports our own wines; so you'll get better quality ones for cheaper prices. i can always just tup in a bottle or two for you in when the order comes around. ok, time for dinner. and sleep soon. still on medication. gotta work tomorrow, apologies for the disappointment for those waiting for afternoon detailed posts. haha. |
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| 14-Apr-2007 13:06 |
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hey chinkiasu, glad to see you're fine. so lucky, get to travel everywhere. weh, elf wants to go too. weh. currently still sick. sian. medication puts me to sleep... STE: did tell you guys resistance at 3.5. appears very stubborn tho. things shd heat up closer to XD date. if you can find a better counter tho *hint hint*, consider outing and going into that perhaps? not that STE has no upside, but it's the 2nd rule of selling for me: exit when you find another counter with better potential upside. of course, if you have hte cash, no harm just sitting in. must realise elf has limited resources, so my way of playing has to be dif from all you guys with fat wallets. *sigh* where's giantlow, btw? hope he didn't get burnt too badly...i miss him. esp since he's the founder of this thread. meh. |
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| 14-Apr-2007 12:49 |
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yah. actually i prefer doggies too. cats are really not my thing. (no offence to my kitten hehe). returns for having a kitten....well, whatever the kitten is willing to give, isn't it? or what, you mean he's not attractive enough so he has to come with elfin stock tips attached?! poor kittie...poor, poor kittie....
c'mon ladies, this is all it takes to make a little furball happy.... 
keke. eh, yj, no offence yea.....keke. no takers? so sad. meh. ok...i can give one good tip for kittie.... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 18:26 |
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hullo, just woke up from nap. groggy....medication... yea. not all indicators work for all counters...esp be careful with the pennies. I know i'm holding some, but note that i only pick the pennies with strong fundamentals. o/w, without fundamentals, i wouldn't touch a penny no matter how good its TA is. since being cornered, day traders, momentum, etcetc will affect it a lot. And then there's macro-trends to consider as well. sometimes, macro-trends can just put all TA out of whack, so always gotta keep informed of global news. yup, i do use MACD. depends entirely on counter tho. i go by stock first then i see which indicators it responds to. note i never just rely on one indicator. best of all for me is when they all coincide. it's that thing abt know yr tools but always distrust them. keke. yongjiu is my kitten now. official elfin adoption, without rest of family. haha. 'cos there was some conversation abt him being a leo, but he was so amenable to being bullied (i was sharpening knives to slice him up and he offered his heart as dessert!!!  ), so i told him that he wasn't a lion, but a kitten. and he agreed. keke. so elf has a bunnie and a kitten now. the kitten is a little lonely tho, so we're on the lookout for company for him. any recommendations? *grin* i lelonged him yesterday. haha. see if you can find that post.  i'm sure the kittie's not bad looking. any takers??? on sale!!
bwah ha. and oh man, this emoticon is sick! 
eastonbay....yah...i think i make more money when i'm on mc than when i'm at work. not a good thing.... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 12:54 |
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Dow Jone Transportation Stocks status
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how many days does it have to diverge 20% from for it to be considered a trend reversal? but yea. it's domestic money supporting the rally now. all the better; less volatile. in midst of all this euphoria, always watch for macro forces tho. these will shake the market; to the pt that FA or TA doesn't matter. ok, nites gege. elf sleepy after medication.... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 12:28 |
Gems TV
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Sparkling gemstones
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hm, ipunter, i do get what you mean. 'cos seriously speaking, the stock is on a downtrend, and i'm not gonna hedge about that. it broke its lower bollie two days in a row alr. but thing is, people usually can't bear to cut loss, and i guess, i was thinking more from SYT's perspective...'cos if she couldn't bear to cut loss at 1.6+, then likely, it's going to be even harder for her now. in which case, it's just sit and wait it out, right? and perhaps when it's at its bottom, buy in again to square up, and let go at a lesser loss. it's all individual choice tho. if can bear to, of course i'd say, cut loss. but if not, then it's the option above... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 11:31 |
Nippecraft
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Can Consider
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actually harryp, to correct misconceptions lest newbies take it wrongly and just charge into the market...it's not that FA is 'easier and safer', because quite a lot of work is needed to weed out the wheat from the chaff; and to sort out the said and unsaid in brokers' reports. It's all the fine print. And it's 'easier and safer' only 'cos vic and shplayer have done all these work for us in the forum here. note, making money is good, but if it turns out the other way, pls don't blame them hor... but yep, my two geges are wonderful, aren't they? :) |
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| 13-Apr-2007 11:01 |
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thanks for the encouragement, fairygal. much appreciated. :) hey, hohokit, you're back!!! :)))))) keke. you holding some of the same counters as my geges.... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 10:45 |
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i like the sniper kitten too. hehe. sheesh...bunnie....don't always gotta be dominant ya know...in any case, no worries. kittie whacks bunnie, elfie whacks kittie. fair and square. ahaha. and yah. see bunnie, that's why i tell ya never buy a short uptrend on a long downtrend... us small fries too liable to get caught. gems is in bad shape now tho... all shortists and contra-ists.... qzpm, no prob. :) and wail....everything's falling apart. elf is sick now and kinda sad. everything's falling apart except for the stock market! wail..... |
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| 13-Apr-2007 10:32 |
Gems TV
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Sparkling gemstones
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hm. ok, counter's worse than i thought....SYT, if you're still vested and can't bear to sell it, perhaps park it deep in a drawer and don't look at it til months later. counter being played by shortists and contra ppl now. Cross fire. hold by my volatile range-bound call (on fellowship thread). but range has to be increased 'cos a lot of shortists. don't bother using any techs on it now 'cos it's too volatile and likely to be inaccurate. only for the day trader. |
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| 13-Apr-2007 10:26 |
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damn. i didn't believe it could hit past 12.5. ah well, win some lose some. good luck, gege. :) |
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| 13-Apr-2007 10:24 |
SPC
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SPC
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hold. possible to hit $5 (not today tho). have been seeing large lot buy up yesterday. today's trades all retail only; not interesting yet. wait for 1130 am. |
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| 12-Apr-2007 17:29 |
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aieee....i'm not an auntieeeee......fyi kitten, i'm some years younger than you. haha. no lah, it's not that i don't want you, but if you're my pet, i should take care of you isn't it? so if you're lonely, shouldn't i be a good missy and get you a companion? keke. |
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