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| 01-May-2007 20:36 |
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BBs (cont): and prior apologies to all for racking up posts. i'm doing it so that it isn't too long to be digested. breaking it down to become bite sized. haha. classes of BBs: As godpa has already observed wisely, there are more than one class of BBs. you should never make the mistake of assuming it's only BBs vs small fries. Roughly, there are your bona fide fund mgmt companies--overseas and local (different, 'cos they pick dif stocks), there are private investors, there are private hedge funds too. the last are a new breed, and they skew the pic by quite a lot because some of them don't have experience; plus their goals etc are different. They're normally the ones you find ramping up penny stocks. True blue fund mgmt companies, esp the overseas one, honestly, they go only for the blues. Most of the times it's BBs versus small fries (abbr: SF from now on). but sometimes, esp with small family owned companies, there's fight for control of the board. so what you'll see is dumping by one BB to force out the other guy, esp if he's on margin. And the other guy will rapidly try to mop up the float, as we call it. Who succeeds depends essentially on who has greater funds. Sometimes it's played on a larger scale in the blues. That's when stock prices undergo huge volatility. and the pic is skewed by the retailers who rush into the frenzied feeding too. and then there are contra-ists and day traders and shortists, too. Singtel in the past few months when market crashed is a key example of a played stock by BBs and everyone and sundry. Simple logic, can your average man on the street afford to buy 500 lots of singtel at one shot? it's obviously BBs and gungho traders at work here. My sole advice is, don't get caught in the crossfire of the BBs. That's why in techs, you sometimes need to be very, very careful in order to weed out the real pic of what is happening. as for day traders (as this is their market now). how you can roughly gauge who's in the market: the average daily vol. few think of using this as an indicator, but to me, it's an excellent indicator of macrotrend. Because the ave daily vol of the market is actually abt 2 bil only. if it's blues in the top gainers/actives, it's the BBs at play. When things sink to 1-1.5 bil, it's a lull period. everyone's staying on the sidelines. Esp the BBs, who tend to have prior news so they exit faster than the rest of us. When the no: ups to 3-4 bil, and it's all pennies in the top actives, day traders, contraists and shortists are at work. This kind of market (as is what is happening past few days: top actives all pennies, but STI down, yet vol is high) is the most tricky to trade in. Can collapse anytime. Blues, then mids, then pennies is the cycle. After the pennies is either an upswing of blues again, or more likely, a collapse. Look at New York 1929, Shanghai and Tokyo in the 1950s/70s, Asia in 1997, 2003. Patterns, bro. Perhaps i am a pessimist, but it's human nature. It's the same reason why the FBI has psychological profiling to catch criminals. Human nature rarely changes. of course, the guiding principle remains the same: we're retail investors. let's not kid ourselves. you can never outfight the BBs. so the only thing you can do, is to follow the trend. after all, to win, ya don't gotta be the shark. just gotta be the little remora fish swimming beneath it. Ride the waves. And keep in mind always that the market is a fluid place. Techs map the trend, so techs stay true as long as the trend stays true. Which is why, never be complacent. always check and recheck your techs as long as you're vested in that counter. think, people! live chicken, not dead tiger! haha. and i hope this has been useful. any disagreements feel free to share. i'm just one opinion ah. not the gospel truth. |
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| 01-May-2007 20:20 |
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on BBs: if you guys haven't realised by now, the market is essentially an artificial construct. what moves a share price is not so much the actual value of a company, but the psychological reaction of people to that value. Eg, yes, SPC is actually "undervalued", in terms of its PE ratio, but its share price is hovering in a fixed band. Moreover, SPC is predominantly an oil refinery company, so by right, if oil prices increase, SPC should go down. It does not do so, however. For the simple reason that when investors see SPC, they think: direct relation wtih oil prices. That is why, when oil prices increase, SPC tends to go up, even though logically, there's no reason for it to. So my central thesis is that the market is an emotive place. What governs it are emotions, not logic. What moves a stock price is momentum. ie, people want it to move a certain way. And the battle field is set up between BBs and small retail investors. Because remember after all that this is game theory at its truest: that investing is a zero sum game. ie, where someone wins, another must lose. In fund companies, we call it the Greater Fool Theory: who's the idiot that you can catch to hold onto the stock at a higher share price. Since it obviously has to be sold to someone. Retailers are always getting tricked. Since for most retailers, they can't be bothered to go through the mountains of data, they're only interested in seeing "Recommended: BUY" and "Target price = xx". And they rush to buy. The trouble is that most retail investors are less of investors, more of gamblers. But common sense: BBs hold the stock, they want to sell it. They are also the ones who issue analyst reports. If that is not conflict of interest, i don't know what is. Plus, that is why i'm a firm technical person. Because you need to track what they do, not what they say. Often times, you'll realise that when BBs issue a "BUY" call, they're selling by the truckloads behind the investors backs. Recent cases in point: SMB, HPL. HPL especially was pure manipulation. The days of the F1 hype, the charts showed BBs selling, small fries buying. Then what happens? news issue that "HPL is not involved in the F1 bid". whereupon HPL price dropped by quite a bit. thing is, when it dropped, what the charts showed was that small fries selling, BBs buying. and sure enough after that, one brokerage house (can't rem which) issued a BUY call on HPL with target price of $10+. what all these show, i'll leave to you all to judge. |
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| 01-May-2007 20:08 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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hey zhirong_thann, i can't load the charts on my comp for some reason, so can't give the williams and RSI readings. last time i checked on friday tho, they're def oversold. pls note though that overbought/oversold are just indications of interest/not in the stock. just because a stock is overbought does not mean it has no potential to rise further. vice versa. osim has been sold down since before its results though. if you follow its charts (i'm doing this from memory, so pls verify), it's been sold down since at least 2 weeks before the release of results already. Probably, BBs sold then. so the remainder selling now is from small players and perhaps some laggard private hedge funds. you can check osim with longcheer. these stocks are undergoing parallel movements. advise caution on this counter tho. FA or TA-wise, it does not look good. |
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| 01-May-2007 19:46 |
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fwah...too many posts, can't keep up....reposting now 'cos first post somehow or other vanished... anyway, thanks to everyone for their well wishes. much appreciated. :) elf is really quite weak physically lah, so i fall sick quite easily. also 'cos i tend to do many things at one time, and it can get tiring. baseerahmed, godpa answered your qns rightly on the BBs. *applause, please* will elaborate further in another post fyi and for other forumers too. yea, my bunnie's certainly no bimbo man....very smart girl! good bunnie! keke. yongjiu/yongyuan. without revealing too much, my kitten's nick plays on his real name. :P and if i may venture a guess...yong jiu does mean longlasting (ie, evergreen), while yong yuan refers to forever. They're synonyms, really, as in same meaning different words. But very nuanced difference in mandarin though. yong yuan is forever, especially used in the context of relationships and reference to eternity. yong jiu refers to something that lasts for a long time (ie, not necessarily for ever). so someone whose spirit is 'forever young' for instance, the phrase is yong yuan qing chun, and not yong jiu qing chun. godpa!!! auughhh...there's no such phrase as yong qing!! *wail* hohokit, glad to know you've sold off your osim. :) need any TA done lemme know k. you might have to find me on the fellowship thread tho, since i don't often go into other threads, unless i'm vested in/interested in that counter. baseerahmed, you're certainly intelligent. so no worries, just discuss your ideas and all here; we're all just learning and helping each other along, after all. no worries if wrong. if you've noticed, i put a disclaimer on all my 'share advisory' posts, too. in effect we're all just individuals. the market is a whole big mechanism. so none of us, no matter how 'expert' can ever claim to be fully right. |
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| 30-Apr-2007 11:57 |
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hohokit, be careful, seeing large sell downs on osim. swingers, consider scalping sapphire now. and i mean now. tide's just changed. buy direct 0.035, don't be greedy, queue sell direct at 0.04 once your buy is confirmed. on basis of 9000 lot buy up at 0.035. you must move before that trade moves. tech upside is abt 0.085 for sapphire act. caveat emptor ah. swing trades move very, very fast. you stand equal chance of losing if you cannot cut out fast enough. only for the high risk takers. |
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| 30-Apr-2007 11:12 |
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huh, godpa, if i'm not aiding you now, then what is it i've been giving you and bunnie via email for the past few months man.....anyhow, like i said, timing matters a lot in the market. btw, jerome, baseerahmed etc. if you're interested in following the trend (ie, to pennies), then could perhaps look at the pennies that victorian is digging up. engkong, and ptcl (go to those threads). now i haven't assessed ptcl's techs yet, but engkong is my pick tho: his FA corroborates with the TA pic i've analysed. and it's falling into the tech range i called. so far, so good. fyi, for those scalping swing trades on sapphire: be careful. small buy ups, large sell downs in the morning. trade of 9000+ lots, 2500, 4000, 1000 sell downs in morning first hrs at 3c. update for those unable to see sgx/poems data: 194 gainers vs 402 losers, 2744 unchanged. STI abt -42pts at 3356, sesdaq at 209.11, +0.51 k, byes. elf is sick yet again. sigh. :( bunnie. wail. :( |
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| 30-Apr-2007 11:02 |
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hm jerome, update the list a bit (pls note tho that i'm not doing pure ta trades--the traditional indicators--for htese few mths; still think upside not worth the risk taken): take out the china stocks (not worth the risk; plus price already factored in year's increase). take out longcheer and jurtech. consider taking out wingtai etc higher costing ones--qn of value per dollar invested. csm has lost sensitivity to indicators as well. maintain still tho that the money left at this end of the bull cycle is in the pennies. that's what i mean, follow the trend. scan through sesdaq. if you follow the papers; STI up 13%, but sesdaq is up 45%. choose your pennies well tho; and don't expect to use a/d, c/o etc on them. and be careful that once pennies crash, they'll take years to recover. so it's all abt risk/reward ratio for yourself, and your own appetite for risk. I'll admit that i'm a rather high risk taker, since my aim at this age is capital growth, not capital preservation. It necessarily means i take greater risks than someone who's say, looking for 10% growth pa. my advice is just that, just another opinion on this forum--do make up your own minds, and never take what i say as the be-all and end-all. i might be absolutely wrong. and rem too that it isn't just a qn of picking the so-called right stocks, but also timing. That's a crucial factor. |
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| 30-Apr-2007 00:49 |
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(cont from previous thread): b) i & ii) you need to find my previous post from sometime in dec for the rough list of stocks. pls note tho that they're not exhaustive. since for me, i prefer to specialise in the 80c to abt $2 range. there are many stocks above that price that are TA-able tho. and yes, crucially, the list always changes. it's what i posted sometime back about always check your stocks to see that they are still responsive to the indicators you use, rem? iii) yep. at that time, when i said TA-able, i meant obedient to the indicators you listed. do be very careful in this current market tho; likely you'll find the stocks moving faster than the indicators; or not as responsive. it is really more volatile than most people think. partly 'cos of this and also 'cos i'm very busy with work, that's why i've swapped for longer term holdings (ie, FA basis, use TA to call entrance/exit). since don't have the time for close monitoring required for momentum. scalped enough pure TA trades for the year alr. hope this helps. apologies if it sounds confusing and nothing's concrete; must realise that just as the market is a dynamic, fluid place, so too, investors have to be equally fluid. Never make the mistake of thinking targets are set in stone. All techs change as the macro trend changes. Rem that. my key pt is the same: follow the trend. that's the best advice i can give. nites, hope it's useful! |
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| 30-Apr-2007 00:41 |
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ok baseerahmed: firstly, you must realise that elf does not do by fixed TA method/indicators. I essentially take via stock first, then decide what method to use. And i take into account the general macro trend as well. Eg, in abt dec to early feb, fabulous for normal TA trades (a/d, c/o etc), since it was stable enough. but market got too irrational/volatile, which is why i swapped to FA+TA on mainly pennies (note, not just any penny, but only solid ones with real FA credentials), and the tech tools change accordingly. Coupled with value plays, like what i noted last week on this thread i think--this is the time for momentum scalping as well, since it's so volatile. again, the tech tools you use for these are different. as for your qns: note that there are no fixed answers to them, since a lot will depend on your trading time frame and goals as well. ai) generally at least 3 days. longer if i'm tracking as a value play/deducing BB movement. ii) no. i don't always watch the bu/sd. again, it entirely depends on what i'm trading the stock for. wld advise watching bu/sd during this volatile mth tho. iii) eh. this entirely depends on what tools you like best/respond best to your stocks. some stocks are insensitive to practically all indicators. alt, that if you're a day trader (for eg), then a/d, c/o etc will mean nothing much to you. iv & v) sorry, i don't use poems charts. i only use SJ charts. poems i use solely for the bu/sd which is day specific. (what charts does poems have??) |
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| 30-Apr-2007 00:33 |
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haha, yes asterisk. i think dorian gray is an absolutely poisonous book too. but such sweet poison, ain't it? love the language there. yup to the aesthetics of it all too. it's the idolism of beauty and perfection. incidentally, mishima committed hara kiri, did you know? and yea, heartbreaking work of staggering genius. like, geez, man. that book reads like an acid trip or something. hey, that means you're free now eh? good. go help my bro victorian dig through sweet potatoes. haha. i'm sleepless. sigh. tmrw still gotta work. wail....baseerahmed, hang on; i'm separating yr qns from asterisk's post so that it's clearer. |
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| 29-Apr-2007 22:28 |
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oh yea, and listen well to godpa. he's certainly someone to respect. ;) and yes, i did read mishima before. but that was some time ago in my teens/early twenties. his books can be a little heavy, dense as they are on imagery and obliqueness. Yep, he has a trilogy, but one of his classics is confessions of a mask. gotta warn ya tho, it's homoerotic undertones. japanese culture. you're livelier by nature tho. go read Picture of Dorian Gray by Oscar Wilde. One of my favourite books. Try Ghostwritten, too. By David Mitchell. Elf tends to prefer the more meditative, sadder books tho. you might not like them. oh, and have you ever read the original fairy tales by hans christian andersen, and not the sanitised disney versions? very beautiful language in them. :) k, gonna go off and zzz. falling sick again. *sigh* good luck for your last paper(s)! |
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| 29-Apr-2007 22:24 |
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asterisk, judging from the rate you hit senior ranking, i do believe you have trouble with your smsing and phone bills too, don't ya? lol. don't worry kid, just keep posting. it's always good to have fun stuff around. and haha, yea, least relevant postings. i haven't done a search on your name yet, but i'm sure you'll hold that record. keep it up. :P and nono, out of the mouth of babes come words of wisdom. just keep hitting; elf is pretty sure she has/can find some use from you. haha. |
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| 29-Apr-2007 10:40 |
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hey, mack the knife! i like that song. hehe. yep shplayer, real family as opposed to this virtual one i've got here. human sharks vs sharks, may i quote mark twain, that "the only difference between a dog and a man is that the dog will not bite the hand that feeds it." k, elf gonna be busy next mth. will be out of country at some pt. stock market: May will be volatile. same patterns. watch out for mid to end may. expecting mini-correction then. perhaps less of a correction, more of a slump. divergence between news and what is actually happening in share prices already. so earliest harbinger of a real correction is out. shdn't be for at least a few mths tho. tech/momentum traders do be careful; news might happen faster than indicators can react. value investors perhaps less worry there; DCA and patience will be your tools here. tata! |
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| 28-Apr-2007 18:34 |
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re island getaway: sure, godpa, but only if his real family goes along, and i get to bring both my pets at the very minimum! so you see, kitten...this time never leave you out, right? now i just gotta resist throwing you into the water...you did say you can swim, right? lol. |
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| 27-Apr-2007 23:48 |
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keke, singaporegal, don't think so much lah. just go there and enjoy. don't pack so much into a day that you forget to live in the moment. remember the rule of the sea tho, 'cos redang is under marine conservation laws: take nothing but memories, leave nothing but footprints. :) to add in to fortunegal's tips: how we normally feed the fishies is to stuff bread into the mouth of an empty mineral water bottle. this way, you can feed them by hand without them biting your fingers (enthusiastic fishes lah). you can get them very close up this way. and geez, do relax about the sharks. they're really just harmless small ones, if you even see any. i dun think likely tho...oh, and look out for dolphins on the horizon. april/may is the season of the dolphins. and haha. don't havta bring bread from home. just take it from the buffet breakfast. :P shplayer is right tho; i personally prefer the places away from the crowd. haven't been on the cruise but stayed at redang itself. lovely, lovely place. would def opt for the private charter option in future. trengganu has lovely waters. redang, perhentian are just off it. fully agree with him on its beauty. aiyah, kitten, don't worry lah. as long as you don't misbehave, elf will take care of you. ok? good boy! *patpat* and your missy elfie is a nature person lah...i grew up by the sea. you can't take me away from the water. :) From Yukio Mishima, "that children of the sea live, forever haunted, by the freedom of wild things." you just love the simplicity of wide, open spaces, the sky and stars above, and the scent of the salt sea. the silence, away from people. given a choice, i'd choose to live on water rather than on land. sigh.. ah well. haha, bunnie, i like the 'halt from trading' and 'delist from the market' thing. haha. hm. what does 'elf-like' mean tho...yea chinkiasu, it was very very good seeing my bunnie. :))) i've only met shplayer, my dear gege victorian (who's probably busy digging up his sweet potatoes now *sheesh*). might be good to see ppl and put a face to the nicks.. perhaps when godpa gets to singapore? mustn't leave him out, definitely. :) and singaporegal. i wanna meet singaporegal. keke. ok. byes. happily alcoholing away now. keke. |
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| 27-Apr-2007 09:47 |
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haha. sorry, people. my bunnie is not for sale. want to buy kitten, can. bunnie, cannot. haha. and kitten, don't you dare hit on bunnie or i'll hit you. bwahhahahaa. :P man, i think he's so regretting getting adopted. haha. godpa, i'd not be the best judge of my own looks, since vanity will always dictate that a woman overestimates her own beauty. cheers! ok, gotta go work now; won't be on today. tata ppl! hohokit, keep watch on osim! :))) |
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| 26-Apr-2007 23:22 |
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whee....all my fav ppl are online. keke. hullo to godpa, singaporegal, my kitten and the kid asterisk! (and to whoever else i might have missed out scanning the tiny fonts in the home pg). singaporegal, don't worry lah. the little reef sharks are harmless. really. if they start swimming in groups and rising to the surface tho, my advice is get out of the water. feeding time. hehe. :P but yea, just relax and enjoy. the sea's a lovely place. do watch out for sea urchins tho. elf got spiked by them before while swimming in cambodia. took forever to remove the spines. no joke, that.  basically, don't step on anything, just float light as a bubble! keke.
anyways, elfie just met up with bunnie today. godpa!!! bunnie is very pretty!!!! ooh...all big eyes, fair skinned, with dark hair that frames her face, slim and petite. Elfie got a pretty little bunnie pet!!! 
hm...now wonder if my kitten's pretty too....hmmm....if not i wanna find another one. nextttt... keke. k, v tired. elf too fragile. need to conserve energy. hey, look at this little guy! 
heehee. nites, all! |
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| 26-Apr-2007 23:09 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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hey hohokit, no prob man. anything for someone as kindhearted as yourself. :) do watch the trends carefully tho. if it continues downtrending, esp if BBs start selling, then might be wiser to cut out. but anyhow, no pt predicting and speculating. just see what is, and act accordingly. :) |
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| 26-Apr-2007 16:40 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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ok, FA-wise i do not know the full story. Although i do believe that osim might do better divesting brookstone. but anyhow, on stocks that are being speculated, it is all the more important for investors to keep cool and think rationally. As follows, the techs on osim: hohokit, this one's for you :) From 28th mar to yesterday, bollies tight, A/D and C/O slight down, indicating likely downward trend. Supported by candlesticks showing resistance of upward trend. Evidenced by large price drop today. ie, the drop today was expected from a technical perspective. for today's data: if you look at actual buy/sell, you'll realise that most of the action is by retailers. especially, shortists in action, particularly in morning trade 0859 to 0916 hrs: two large sells of 430 lots and 140 lots. plus a lot of small sell downs. consequently a mix of retail buy ups and sell downs. as scotty observed: no noticeable BB action: patterns lacking. Likely all retail punters only. 1604 hr lot of 171 bought up. if you follow its previous patterns, likely to hover rangebound for now. cf with hyflux as comparison: consistently above its target price called by BBs. note that analysts have always had trouble calling a target for osim since its products are lifestyle related, and that is very much sentiment driven---not as easy to quantify as say, property, for instance, where there is a fixed value per sq ft of land. still think it's not a counter for FA long term tho; as red1727 observed, there are better options to vest in. as usual, pls make own minds before investing in anything. |
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| 26-Apr-2007 10:08 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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zhirong, short term stock, definitely. as an FA stock, perhaps wiser to wait til the china problem is cleared up and direction is clearer. pls note that short term does not equal shorting tho. you can buy long position for short term. ie, quick punt on upside. likely to be volatile. |
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