Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 05-May-2007 14:39 |
Sakari
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Straits Asia
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k. Pls note i do not know the FA story, so i'm just deducing from the techs, as per eastonbay's request. As follows: manipulated stock. The story is too neat to be otherwise. note c/d and a/d not especially sensitive to this stock: further indication of rapid buying/selling. esp significant since if you track its vol, it shows a wide range from 42 mil (14th dec vol) to only 435k (30th apr). ie, likely BB control of counter. Charts show clear evidence of sudden buying 19th-20th april when stock hit its bottom at 0.965 on the 19th: vol rose suddenly from ~4.98mil to 6.1mil from the 18th to the 19th. Supported by williams sudden increase from -100 to -68 over just these two days. Accumulation consequently and consistently to 3rd may at close of 1.17. This sudden breakout was partially predicted by the bollingers: narrowed from 23rd apr to 30th apr. Now i did not track this stock so i don't know the bu/sd data over the days, but from vol alone, very, very likely there was deliberate depression of the price from 25th apr to 30th apr to force out small fries (close of 1.05 cf 1.01; notably, vol dropped to its lowest ever of 435k on 30th apr--the day before the sudden spike.). 4th may spiked up 5c to close 1.22, but selling occuring: williams dropped from -4 to -26 (3rd-4th may). candlesticks show resistance of this uptrend to continue. bu/sd data supports this conclusion: weed out lots of 100 and above to see BB action: data reads 1741 lots buy up, 1278 sell down. ie, distribution of abt 500 lots by the BBs. retailers mostly buy up, however. Moreover, total vol on 5th may appears to be very high relative to other days (another sign of manipulation). From the other forumers posts below, the timing of the dividend payout and release of news, AND multiple brokerage coverage appears to be too neat and coincidental. Elf works by probability statistics: how likely is all this to be just a coincidence? the spin appear to be too neatly timed. going by BB's mentality tho, i do not believe play on this counter is over. your lag MACD is showing it's at the beginning of another strong uptrend. hehe. (note following just rough nos as guidelines; counter does not respond totally to fibo): First wave was from 0.63 to high of 0.935. which gives this current upside tech target to ~1.24. Dovetails nicely with yest's closing. looking forward, i'd expect a consolidation at abt 1.03-1.10, after which your upside possible is to 1.82. not likely for abt 3 mths at least tho. BBs need to sell off, do some depression, play waiting game, force out the current retailers, accumulate, then release news, coverage etc. your comparative in terms of psych/techs is See hup seng. Orchestrated by merril lynch and a few others. pure BB control, from price, to news, to broker reports. For comparative techs now with straitsA as where it is today, SHS period of abt oct 18 to feb 28th. (ie, feb 28 to may 4 for SHS is where StraitsA can possibly go to looking forward.). Yea, 1.82 might not seem possible, sometimes i don't believe my own techs haha, but put it this way, if on oct 18 at 15c, i told you SHS can hit 80c in 6 mths, would you believe me? eastonbay, could ride it out for fun. hehe. and ehhhh....make me do so much work, on a counter i'm not even holding. niama. ya know how much you have to pay for the above if you were to ask a real analyst to do it. you're so buying me a drink or something someday man....or hmm...wait.... elf needs a new hp....hmmmmm..... haha. note: above all just my opinion. pls make own minds up. and note as well that techs hold true as long as the trend remains true. caveat emptor. good luck! your resident elf 
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| 05-May-2007 13:42 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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hi conga313 and all, the $4 price target is about right by tech count, assuming of course that this current trend continues. for the short term: this current dropping is petering out, but not much signs of uptrend either. So like SPC, likely rangebound for now. Will put an estimate abt btwn 3.52 to 3.7. sell in may and walk away looks true for both blues. note that STE sometimes has huge intraday volatility, so it's not possible to give a smaller range. (eg, 23rd apr, ranged from 3.58-3.7; 17th apr 3.48-3.6). be careful if it cuts below previous low of 3.48 (30th apr low). longterm is still up trend tho. From ~feb 15th onwards has been consistent accumulation upwards. |
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| 05-May-2007 13:35 |
SPC
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SPC
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godpa, the earliest signs of a stopping of downtrend are there, but signals still a bit too feeble to be trusted. Hence likely rangebound for now, i'd put a wide range estimate at btwn 4.70 to 5. Likelier a closer range of 4.74 - 4.86 for this period of time. must convincingly break 5, or at least, 4.92 for a chance of continued uptrend. and geez, da gege etc, you guys are morbid! 
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| 05-May-2007 13:27 |
SingaporeLandGrp
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UIC turning upwards. sporeguy, as per your observation, UIC lags WT; the same way AG lags HB. ie, WT and HB are lead indicators for UIC and AG respectively. esp since all in property sector. They're tandem plays. likely you find the same ppl in both counters; which lends further possibility of cyclical play between these counters. The one unknown factor for UIC which might jack up their price is if they can sell off that UIC building. That'll lead to extraordinary gains for whichever quarter it is sold in. |
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| 05-May-2007 13:22 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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hey jerome, agree with baseerahmed. if you're new to the market; don't get caught up in all the stories of BBs etc. it's likely to make you feel hunted. hehe. just learn to read your charts well, and whether you can or cannot figure out the BBs' psychology, really, it won't much matter since the charts will show the patterns. you just buy when it says buy, sell when it says sell. of course, if you can figure out the motives behind the movement, it's better; but if even if you can't (since we can't be right all the time anyway), as long as you're good in whatever charts you read, that's good enough already. eastonbay and godpa, i'll post respectively on the ste, spc and straitsresource asia threads, so that it's more proper and less confusing (more like less long posts haha) to forumers? thanks! godpa's request first, of course. eastonbay, you can wait. :P |
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| 04-May-2007 18:06 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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lol, no lah kilroy. i'm a small kantang; i'm not holding so much of hh that i need to hard sell it. i wish, man! besides, have always advocated that investors make up their own minds, since i certainly don't believe in blindly following anyone. (not even meee! haha). that's why i always have a disclaimer. but yea, hh is a low vol stock. same as edmi. it's for fundamentals i'm buying it. TA tracking that i use on this counter is very different from the normal indicators. def taking a risk. and eh ppl, as i've been warning on this counter, will be very volatile. so pls ah. make up own minds. kilroy doesn't want to play some for fun? :P keke. |
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| 04-May-2007 17:49 |
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Fellowship of the Shares
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yah. agree with the lallang concept. same thing lah! follow trend! sheesh... hm, jerome, BBs are the ones who set the trend. So what hay bees do is to try our best to follow the trend they set. since by virtue of fund size, they dictate the market movement. they catch us out by simpler means. all your analysts report that read: recommended, BUY, and the psychological tactics, like what's happening with low betas like edmi and ek now: market moves up, these two counters go down: when you look at the vol of ek and edmi, it's actually very small--ie, only retailers selling, BBs are not moving at all. but price is dropping. So what's actually happening? They're waiting out the small fishies, who see market shooting up, and get frustrated and go, "hell! market shooting up, why my counter never move?! sell, go buy xyz other counter!", and when one sells, the rest follows, price drops further, other retailers panic and sell. It's a cycle. But meanwhile, BBs aren't selling at all. and at the dip, that is when they mop up the free float. which is why, for most ppl, after they release a stock, they'll wonder why it went up after that. It's a game of patience. sometimes they'll purposely depress price and make it very volatile to shake out the small fries, too. like edmi, on two of the previous trading days last mth, after price shot up entire day, someone threw down 1 miserable lot at closing bell to depress the price so that it closes down. ok, nuff for now. godpa, yea, lots of money, but what are they parking it in? one of the Templeton fund managers was quoted as saying that, now more than ever, even beating the times of the 1997 crisis, most of his funds are in cash. They've locked in/out already, i think. waiting for correction....not likely soon yet tho. |
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| 04-May-2007 17:32 |
Hiap Hoe
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Looks like on an Uptrend
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hi amateur99, it depends entirely on your risk profile and the amount of funds you want to put in. if you're only putting in a small no: of lots, then yea, as victorian suggested, better to go in and take the div. if you're more middleground/wary by nature and/or going in a large no: of lots, could do by averaging: ie, go in a portion of your funds now, take div, expect slight drop XD, and then go in again. but be prepared tho that you might have to pay abt 1.15 or so for HH if the BBs decide to chiong it CD. fyi, drop XD tends to be by the amt of dividend given. HH's not giving a lot, so i would not expect a drop of more than 5c the day XD. perhaps do your sums well and decide what it is that is best for yourself? good luck!
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| 04-May-2007 13:55 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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yeps zujzuj, keep both for long term. i don't hold smb so not in position to comment, but i hold both edmi and ek. and certainly not intending to sell them in near term. fyi for ek: it is only on its first wave. so just sit in and play all three up waves fully. could do some buying/selling of non-core positions at each consolidation pt, but if not sure/no time to monitor, can just sit in and ride it out. assuming trend remains same of course: but less to worry on these two cf to other stocks on market tho. they're solidly supported by FA, so even if drop, will not be to that much. BBs no reason to unload yet. note how the 3 drops thus far this year, EDMI only went down to 30c (fr its high of 35.5c then); and that was before their results announcement. it's currently trading at abt PE of 2.3x. That's very low relative to the STI. but eh, must check in at least once a day lah. cornered stocks are like bipolar disorder. they'll sit there, stagnate and mope around for days. but when they take it into their heads to turn manically happy, it's speedy gonzales man. hehe. |
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| 04-May-2007 13:45 |
Entertainment
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Fellowship of the Shares
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and yeps jerome, blues = blue chips. undervalued, undiscovered grubby pennies that no one even thinks of = sweet potatoes. prepared a la victorian. haha. and yea, belated, but hmm....we shd take up baseerahmed's suggestion of ikan billis and other names. heehee. so what? ikan billy (singular tense!)/sweet potato = penny? suggestions for mids and blues? heehee. |
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| 04-May-2007 13:39 |
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yeps godpa, been busy at wk. next week will be fully out of office. no time even for own wk pjts, much less own free time. 
aside, just something on the general market, others, pls feel free to add in/correct my perception? 'cos this is just my guess, and i'm unsure. my sense is that this bull run is not BB-driven. As in (for the techies), if you read the bu/sd charts across the blues, mids and pennies, there's no pattern of buying that correlates with the proper BBs, especially foreign funds. What i'm seeing instead is a domestic rush: of private (and shady?) hedge funds, and private investors. plus lots of small time contraists and shortists and day traders. which wld explain why the STI is up, vol is extremely high (2 bil by lunch time already!), yet gainers/losers are almost even, and top actives are mainly pennies. since in a real bull run, gainers should outnumber losers by a lot: recall early jan this year. ie, it's churning that's going on in the market now; and ppl are just rushing for the next vague rumor of takeover etc. which also ties in with how some cos can report better earnings, yet their share price drops (STE), while others are not affected at all. this kind of market, do be cautious. wld appreciate if anyone has a different opinion? |
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| 04-May-2007 13:29 |
EDMI
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EDMI and parent SMB: What's the potential?
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hey zujzuj and other edmi-ers, no worries on this stock la. don't havta second guess it. it's cornered, so any buy/sell will move the stock price by quite a lot. all retail sells on this counter past few days only. nothing to worry abt; BBs no movement at all, so just follow. edmi is a low beta stock, ie, it doesn't follow the STI. like EK, they're cornered and tight float, plus management story. so from psychological perspective of the BBs: the more the STI/market chiongs, the more they'll not move/depress EK and EDMI. so that retailers will get frus (market moving how come my counter never move?!) and sell it. plays right into their hands. same advice. just sit quiet as mousies. patience required with this baby. plus, the consolidation pt is ard 48c, thus far, trend has not changed; techs still hold true. |
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| 03-May-2007 22:20 |
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godpa, re hwa hong: by MACD and candlesticks, appears to be peaking out actually. price showing serious divergence with a/d and c/o, starting from 18th april, with sell cfmed on 25th april (close 89c) by dip 4 days almost consecutive (20-25th apr) for the above indicators. note RSI and williams not entirely sensitive to stock. by fibo, this upside shd be to abt 1.04. likely to hit a lot of resistance and some periods of stagnancy along the way tho, given it's at an all-time high. In uncharted waters. closest resistance to beat is 91.5c. advise wait and see if uptrend continues or trend changes. Don't know the FA story tho; if you do, that might help determine the next direction. good luck! |
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| 03-May-2007 11:45 |
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lol, eastonbay, join the club! elf sick but has still been at work; didn't take MC. so nicely hacking away in my own room and passing to the crowd at lunch. kidding. haha. yea, i shd take vit C man... esp considering i keep odd hrs and dietary habits. haha. zhirong, welcome to the fellowship. :) apologies, i don't do IPOs, not unless i get to sneak in under private/institutional placement. o/w, the one or two lots you get are really not worth the trouble queuing at ATMs...didn't know internet banking can do it tho. tip: rem that most IPOs are quick flips tho. sell within the first or latest 3rd day of debut. even if it's an FA consideration (ie, long term stock), can always afford to buy back later, since almost sure to drop at some point. hehe. yea colorado, taht's why i say, follow the trend. (at the risk of sounding like a broken record). sell in may is rule of thumb advice for blues, really. since that's when divvies are paid out, and foreign mgmers go on hols, so they tend to lock in profits and hold positions before may. Depends entirely on your entry price, funds in reserve and counter you're holding: rule of thumb is a general thing, not specific. j3rom3. yea. just trying to help out lah. no heroes or whatever here. but we've all been through our own mistakes and learning experiences, so if we can share and learn from each other and shorten the experience, why not. it's enough that BBs keep scamming us hay bees already; no need for infighting amongst the hay bees. No wonder always kena eaten up. haha. k gotta go rushed at work these few days tata. and aie, i totally missed chinkiasu's posts (this thread moves very fast! pai seh. hello to you too! back from NY yet?) |
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| 02-May-2007 22:41 |
ST Engineering
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ST Engg
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concur with singaporegal. uptrend in place. signals looking good. macd shows a bit of peaking tho. might be losing some momentum for now. long term still reads up tho. must convincingly break through and sustain above the previous high of 3.7 (resistance level). noticed STE has a habit of breaking its resistance but then hovering around it for a while.... |
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| 02-May-2007 22:36 |
Poh Tiong Choon
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another sweet potatoe dug up.. ha ha
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sigh. my bro and his kantangs. sigh. anw, the techs for those interested. just fyi. elf not vested. appears to be gathering momentum. This wave in process gives upside to abt 25c. Likely in this week/next. Thereaft a consolidation at abt 22c. final upside, all macrotrend remaining constant, is to 31-32c. a manipulated stock. technies advised to use candlesticks, momentum and bu/sd data to see trend accurately. vol too low/inconsistent for a/d and c/o. caveat emptor. |
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| 02-May-2007 22:24 |
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yea singaporegal, elfie's sick too. getting better, but usually before full recovery, will fall sick yet again. *give up* feel yet another sore throat coming on. erk. doesn't help that my colleagues are like you!!! happily sniffing and coughing away in front of me. *sigh* k, nites. |
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| 02-May-2007 22:21 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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hey zhirong_thann, tiandi made the suggestions i was going to make: yea, do look up that article by singaporegal on TA. aside, it's just constant practice all the way--i keep records of all the stocks in my basket, even when i do not buy them. like, once a week, i'll do TA on all of them, then check back the week after to see if i'm accurate. this way, can learn from own mistakes and slowly become better. it's a gradual process tho, so don't expect to become an expert overnight. aside, if you'd like, join us in the fellowship thread (since we're actually getting off topic on OSIM), i've recently posted on BB (big boys) and how they move in the market; perhaps the posts there might be of use to you as well. and yea, taking a loss is always difficult. but we're with you here. :) just remember tho: all decisions always have to be your own. And once you sell, never look back. Rem that for every stock you ran 'wrongly' from, there'll be another you run right from. Focus on overall portfolio, not just one stock. Good luck, and see ya in the fellowship thread! :) |
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| 01-May-2007 21:52 |
Osim Intl
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Release of Q1 result today and AGM 27 apr
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hi zhirong_thann, TA = technical analysis. ie, by reading charts and indicators, we try to predict what a stock does. it's what forumers like singaporegal, ipunter and myself 'specialise' in. FA= fundamental/financial analysis. ie, by reading company reports, PE ratios, NTA values etcetc, where they attempt to give the price value of a stock based on its company value. Forumers like shplayer, victorian, zhuge_liang specialise in this. No one method is superior, really. And you can always use both together. It's just a question of personal style to me. You'll trade via the method that best suits your personality (and of course, brings in best profits hehe). longcheer is a listed stock. they've recently undergone same shakes as osim. Market darling, suddenly a steep free fall, thereafter languishing in the penny area. poor stocks. meh. i like osim. meh. as for cutting out or not, i really can't advise, since your trading personality might be different from mine. Plus, we might not always be right on the stock, either. You need to decide for yourself what loss you can stomach, and what you can live with. If it's me, trading a TA stock, when it drops to abt 8% from my buy price and the techs show change, i'd cut and sell already. If you're not sure, could perhaps consider the half-half method (ie, cut half, keep half). there's another alternative, which is to buy in more when osim drops further. it's very risky tho, since the stock might not go up for a long, long time. be forewarned tho that once XD, osim is likely to drop even further. So decide well yea. essentially it's what you can live with. sole advice i will give: once you decide, do it, don't look back and regret. because we make our decisions on the here and now; hindsight is always perfect. the market's always around. One loss/gain is just that, one battle. THe aim is overall portfolio gain. So yea, calculate for yourself, and decide. good luck! :) |
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| 01-May-2007 21:43 |
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ah, singaporegal, i thought you'd went on your trip already that's why no sound from you. aie, sorry to hear you're sick too. mebbe us sickies should form a club. haha. misery loves company. haha. get well soon!
geez. give the net a break lah. redang hotels should have some internet places... it's a small island tho...not sure. k, nites, all! and thanks godpa for the compliment. just hope ppl find it useful. work tmrw. sigh. |
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