Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 14-May-2007 23:33 |
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thanks chinkiasu. jerome and asterisk and i are having a corny talk on fellowship now, join us there? and haha yea, cheering myself up now. haha. and yea, i think warrants are a means to control the main share px. glad you made back tho! :)))) where giantlow tho....i miss that guy. :( haha, godpa's buyback was hardly an admittance of mistake, ya know... from a tech perspective, he was right. plus, the time that SPC was stagnating, in and out of another counter fast, lock in more profits. Then back to SPC. pure technical trade in between the FA one. why do you always get to travel! meh. |
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| 14-May-2007 23:29 |
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is no one interested in getting me a yorkie? meh, so sad. or muah ha. can work a deal. we make triple the cost of a yorkie. ie, you keep 2/3 cash, i'll keep the yorkie. hahahahhaaaaa!!!! oh man. does this count as soliciting? is SJ admin gonna kick me out? okok, better behave. *giggle* sorry keejang!! *contrite look* asterisk! *serious, calculative look* if i rem rightly, your float is 20k right? even if assume i teach you to double your money in this year, 5% is only 1k wat. not worth leh. c'mon kid. make me an offer i can't refuse! oh man, i love negotiation. muah ha. |
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| 14-May-2007 23:24 |
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yahyah, asterisk. or to put it purely in metaphorical terms, accord to your 3 pts too: 1) find kantang 2) ensure kantang is a kantang manis 3) goreng the little guy til he's a kantang panas. mauhahhaaaa....oh man. will the malay speakers pls excuse my horrendous abuse of the language here. *giggle* as for price manipulation. I believe it's considered criminal only if you release false information? eg, when you release that co is doing well and call a buy, when you know they faked their accounting. but erm. i dun wanna get myself legally tied up. basically, this is the age of information. Everyone will tell you that knowledge is power. I'll tell you that: power is nothing without proper application. like music, you know? the right degree at the right time. asterisk: not unless you can bark too? bwah ha. oh man, this is getting damn corny. |
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| 14-May-2007 23:15 |
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yups. bought osim a nong nong time ago *haha* at 0.975, then it did that share split thing (can't rem if it was 1 for 5 or what). Sold off last year. and no, on FA, i wouldn't buy osim. not unless mister ron sim (hullo ronnie!!! bwah hahaaa like i know the guy) divests brookstone. china imitation problem tricky to settle; but brookstone is the bigger problem perhaps. TA-wise. keke. wait and see. aiyah. 1437 counters in the sgx, can't be nothing to buy wat. advise not to look at ENTIRE sgx tho. you'll run risk then of chasing after too many and getting distracted so ending up with nothing. focus on a few, or on a few indicators. basically, find one method that suits you and works, and stick to it. hell, if reading tea leaves work, take it. i'm the ultimate pragmatist here. hahaaa. |
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| 14-May-2007 23:08 |
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hyper now. can't sleep. was damn pissed abt work but dun wanna brood abt it. so online now lor. eh, my work has nothing to do wtih TA at all. it does have to do somewhat with human psychology tho. muahahahhahaa. i picked up my TA myself; learnt some from the forummers here (act, learnt quite a bit): like from singaporegal, ipunter, sporeguy (eehhhh....teach me your wave theory leh!!!), etcetc. I take what i can from who i can. in that sense i'm a bit of a thief. Or the victorian word for it: fingersmith. I'm a sharesmith! muahahahaa. sorry, just talking nonsense. stresssss....sgih. cannot be stress. must be happy! argh. dowan tu di. unless you can give me a tea cup baby doll yorkshire terrier? keke. |
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| 14-May-2007 22:59 |
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aie...livermore, don't mix up leh... TA doesn't always equate rapid trading. Some TA ppl can hold onto their stocks for a long, long time. It all depends on what you want, and what you read. eg, i held osim for 3 years, doubled it, and then sold off. Sometimes it's TA to call entrance and exit on an FA stock. same thing as now, i picked hh and ek on FA basis. TA to call the entrance and exit. am fully prepared to hold ek for the next 2, 3 years if i still see the FA (and TA) potential in it. since haha, at the end of the day, if a company's FA is solid, but no one sees it, its price will never move what. but yea. long term, holding works better. that's why, never play contra. not worth. ehh...asterisk, can't just heck FA leh. Sometimes, it lets you deduce the reason behind the TA trend you're watching. But anw, it all depends on personality. i'm very practical; i take what works. This market is a momentum market; so if i had spare cash, i'd do swing trades. But long term (ie, looking ahead), there has to be a correction sometime. So i'm parked into undervalued counters for the next 3 mths, wait for market to pick up my counters. so zhirong thann, there's your answer. Props and cons are lagging now 'cos they've been fully valued by the market alr. So yea, their 1Q results are good; stellar even. but fact is, most of it has been factored into the share price by the market already. So aiyah. let's not quibble FA or TA. really. if it makes money, who cares? and i'm sure rogue will agree wiht me hahahaa! |
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| 14-May-2007 22:49 |
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wah, zhirong thann (can i abbreviate your name? zhirong, or thann?): china yb can't read leh. no charts given on SJ. but based on today's busd data, appears to be insti sell, retail buy. but some large lots bought still tho. ie, likely down/rangebound for next few sessions. I dun have enough data and didn't track counter's previous busd data, so won't predict more than what today's tech says. some punting going on. sinomem. hehe. wld have prob tried to enter 1.17 on 9th may, sell off tmrw. starting to show resistance of uptrend. keke. and here, may i issue a warning on gems tv. pls do consider it carefully. i know each investor makes his/her own choices, and i'm no one to tell others what to do. But pls. this counter is setting off alarm bells in my head. just look at the vols alone. Def something fishy going on. has been one long downward trend since abt 27th mar (by williams). This is its third big drop since 10 april, and it doesn't seem to have ended yet. Note that it has went below IPO price, as well as broken lowest of 1.17 on 30 Jan. Note also the USD exchange rate will work against you. we're currently abt 1.5 to 1. USD is expected to drop to abt 1.46-8 by year end. strictly for gamblers and high risk takers. o/w, really, not worth. FA-wise, you wouldn't touch this counter with a ten foot pole (only in my beginner's FA view ah): its basis of business is too fragile; too seasonal dependent. like brookstone. Plus, squeezing margins and tough competition. like the water purification industry; hyflux, united envirotech etc. not good, not good... |
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| 14-May-2007 21:28 |
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oic livermore. well, glad you've found a mtd that works for you. :) ASL was not on my charting radar, but looking back at it now; i'd have called a buy earliest on 23rd mar at close of 93c, and sold 25th apr at close of 1.25. a/d, c/o and rsi not particularly sensitive to it. Wld have called the trade based on price momentum, williams and candlesticks. esp candlesticks for the sell since it shows momentum upward is not sustainable. thanks for all your advice tho. will def be looking into the idea of margin. prob not at the moment since fully vested *haha* but always good to learn more! see ya all; need to have an early night. |
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| 14-May-2007 21:10 |
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oie! who's the fella who gave singaporegal a bad rating just for asking me what shares i'm holding? like sheesh. even if it's a bad qn, it's up to me to decide what! niama.... anw, singaporegal, elf holding onto two counters now only. have just divested edmi. Concentrated into engkong, and hiap hoe. Not just 'cos of vic and FA. If you read the techs, it's an interesting game going on. (note a/d and c/o doesn't work for them). both stocks cornered. ek's float is 210mil. HH is abt there too. Very strong FA backing; both undervalued by the market. hh more speculative tho. So am weighted more into ek; which is essentially how edmi was in january. Double or quits for the year. wish me luck! whatcha holding then? :) |
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| 14-May-2007 20:02 |
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haha, rogue, EECCKLKK: i wish, man, i wish. like i told my godpa and bunnie, the only damn thing working out for me is the stock market. 
and ehhhh, you guys profit but i don't, what's the benefit to me?! haha. whatcha vested in now, btw? or how's yr TA coming along? ya want any counter read lemme know; elfie will try to help ya. cheers!! 
livermore: how do you read that the shares are breaking/broke out of consolidation phase? |
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| 14-May-2007 17:17 |
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you go, nickyng! 
heya chinkiasu, nice to see ya back. and haha, my godpa's more intelligent than that lah. he bought back spc on friday already. his own decision man. besides he has elf and bunnie as goddaughters, even if don't gain, not likely to lose a lot in investing. haha. we all got lots to learn from him. cheers! elfie very stressed at work. need to kaobeh. pls excuse me: kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb kb!!! wail.......godpa! bunnieeee! *misery* sighhhhhh. *deflated elf* and oops, sorry to the SPC-ers. hehe. perhaps we shd move to fellowship thread? |
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| 14-May-2007 13:51 |
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lol. jerome, ya gotta excuse this victorian bro of mine. he can be quite one-track minded. anw: NTA = net tangible asset; ie, the actual net worth/value of the company, as opposed to its share price. Sometimes known as its book value (?). So since its px now is 23c, it effectively means you're paying 2c extra for a worth of 21c. a lot of other stocks are way overvalued by this 'book to price' ratio measurement. and yah, assuming he didn't change his parameters; RSI and STS shd be 14 and 28 resp. lol. |
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| 14-May-2007 13:07 |
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haha, don't gotta pee in yr pants, nickyng; it remains only a qn of when you're willing to let it go. elf will be out afternoon so can't watch the fun. will check in again later. haha. fyi, majority of ppl started shorting from 4.96. good luck kid, and most of all, have fun!
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| 14-May-2007 13:04 |
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hey jerome, concur with ipunter. be very, very careful with margin. you need to know how much you're putting up, and how much the costs and leverage are, what price your margin call lies, and if you have sufficient reserve funds in event of a margin call. this is a bull market; so practically every counter you buy will be green; but in leaner times, it will perhaps not be as easy. and hahahah! yes, i can hear your sigh with regards to the email addy too. :P |
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| 14-May-2007 12:56 |
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crazy volumes. being both shorted and swung. note 2,000 lots sell down ~11:42. insti sold since the last time i posted here mid apr. act, like knightrider said; get out. risk is perhaps not worth the what, 5-10c upside that you might get. extreme caution for this one. |
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| 14-May-2007 11:32 |
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keke, oh yea, go nickyng. going by data, ~4.96 wld be good. 
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| 12-May-2007 21:37 |
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hullo ipunter, thanks for the compliment. :) altho i do believe many already know what i'm saying, just that perhaps they don't bother articulating the methods, that's all. godpa! wail. i can't help it if i'm slow! you gotta admit it's quite confusing, what with the class A shares, class B, different limits, margin call = when loan more than share price, forced selling when below dunno-wat limit! meh. mehhh. 
kaoz. niama. don't believe i can't figure it out. gonna bring margin info and a momentum book on my trip. Mebbe an FA book too. hmph. and lol. I agree with livermore actually. Investments can be quite simple: choose the method that suits your personality. You don't havta know so much, and you can still be successful. Just that elf like stories; i like to peek behind the curtain. I'm one of those kids that if i see a puppet show, i'd want to pull the puppet off the guy's hand so i can see how he does it. keke. So all the BB stories are what goes on behind the scene, really. You don't havta know all of that, and you can still trade successfully. It's more the processes, what goes behind, that i'm sharing. Since for me, what i find fascinating is not the end result (win or lose), but the machinations of the game. I don't just want to win it; i want to know how and why i won it, and how the other guy lost. haha. |
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| 12-May-2007 12:31 |
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BB story for the weekend, which the SPC thread reminded me of. btw, henceforth, small BBs are gonna be bBBs/sBBs, and big BBs will be BBBs. Definition of small: private investors, small hedge funds--those who don't trade in the usual BB pattern. Big BBs are essentially your foreign fund mgmt companies, and those like Temasek, Keppel, etcetc. If i just type BB, it includes all categories. can? Makes discussion clearer. Anyhow. Someone posted on SPC that his relatives couldn't depress the price of SPC for more than a day (can't rem who but haha, godpa and bunnie, be good and give him a break k...): why i tell you guys to watch busd data, and not just the lots traded but the time of the trade: How a BB is able to control the price, talking about buying action first: For those interested in becoming a bBB: Unlike your average retailer, you will not just queue to buy your desired no: of lots at one price, since people will undercut you by paying that 0.5c, or 2c, or 5c higher, dep on the value of your counter. Esp if you're buying a block of say, 100 lots on a $5 counter. So if you're looking to accumulate a counter, then what a BB does is actually to watch and see first, they do not queue. Rather, at the right price, when the number of sell quotes reaches the number of lots you want to buy, enter and sweep up the sell quotes directly. Sometimes that's not enough, you'll need to take some of the quotes above as well. This way, buying is neatly and cleanly done. Since there is no buy queue quote, you're also not noticed by the market until you have struck. For selling, aka, deliberate depression of price: Do not presume a BB just whacks and dumps all their lots at one time. That's so inelegant, not to mention inefficient. Rather: Wait til the buy quotes are under the number of lots you have. Then sell enough to match all the buy quotes, and sell down the next quote(s) under it as well. This in effect is how the deliberate depression of prices are achieved. Esp if it's a short time span you want to act in to shock the market into panic selling. And yea, you can see from the above egs why time of trade is important: 'cos when you sweep the quotes at a certain price, and take the next ones after, it all happens within a couple of min. So for hay bees, that is how you can use busd techs to track the BB action. Aside, for control of a counter: i'd expect you have to be at least in the top 20 shareholder list. Or roughly, if you look at annual reports of a lot of companies, you should hold at least 0.2% of the total shares issued by the company. It's mathematical: below that, you're not likely to have enough to swing the price. So for SPC, for instance, if you should wish to depress its price: issued share capital of SPC as at Dec 2006 financial report is 515 mil. There are options available for a further 9000+ lots. As well, they have restricted share scheme, rights, retirement benefits etcetc. We ignore all that and ballpark the figure and just say 515mil. 0.2% of that is 1.03mil shares. At price of 4.8, means you need a conservative working capital of S$4.9mil to swing its price. Also, take note that when a BB swings a price, they don't touch core holdings either. So that $4.9mil is just for playing. Cool, huh? i totally love this game!
ok, will update kantang techs another time. need to go have breakfast. byes! |
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| 12-May-2007 11:58 |
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haha, godpa, if your sense of timing was really that bad as you claimed, you wouldn't have survived so long on both the STI and ASX! And on margin, too. Elf def has a lot to learn from you and the rest here. And argh! gege, what are you still doing on SJ??? Go to sleep! for goodness' sake. sheesh. i'll update the kantang techs for you. Go! shoo! tsk. |
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| 11-May-2007 18:07 |
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k, update for my godpa, eastonbay and chinkiasu: techs from SJ not updated yet, but til yesterday, it's impasse. maintain still needs to break consistently above 4.86 for upside to continue. today's upsurge was likely due to the goldman sachs report of 6.10 target price. even then, it's not out of the ordinary for SPC's daily trading range. overall busd data for today, large lots (inclusive of those ard same time) traded: 1328 sell down, 1646 buy up. Note that data is skewed: if you track the time of selling; you'll realise a lot of the selling went on in the morning, with no pattern consistent of BBs and/or rich private investors: esp note the heavy selling between 9:01:32 to 9:34:56. Large lots sold there account for 35% of the total sell down for the day. Hence more likely shortists at work. retail buying throughout the day as per expected due to broker's bullish report. consistent large lot buy up throughout the day. keppel or someone else likely adding to their holdings. Hence overall pic for today reads: retail buy, shortists at work, institutional buy. |
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