Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 30-Sep-2008 11:03 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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singtel: not yet. support 305/304 but heavy selling Qs; lidding 310. DBS: not yet. watch 16.11. buy queues thin. UOB: 16.66 lidding. 1634, 1620, 1610 forms the support. technically appears stronger than DBS. OCBC: anytime is a buy actually. sub 6.9, see if can get lower. consistent buyer support. 685, 683, 680 strong support. note: all levels are just for today; i haven't read the ARs of DBS/UOB, so you are on your own for these ones. have said before tho that of all the banks, i actually prefer OCBC; as they've accounted/made provisions for 100% of their CDO obligations already. And NPL (non performing loans) account for just 1.4% of their loan folio. expect afternoon selling when europe opens tho, the kneejerk selldown. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 10:40 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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may i add that what buy calls i'm having is strictly for longterm (think 3-5 years) and on fundamentals only. also, in strikes. caveat applies as usual. update for the list: no go yet for sembcorp, sembmar, SPC as well. trillions in sovereign debt, but they can afford to spend a couple of billions every month in Iraq. No one created that debt but themselves. and c'mon lah, 700bil is cheap compared to the carnage that has happened, and will follow in the months to come. credit freezes up, decent businesses can't get loans, mortgages go unpaid, more unemployement, etcetc. (this is for the US). The bailout, like i wrote in my blog, isn't about correcting fiscal damage: the broader agenda is the damage it causes to US image globally. ie, the bailout is a bailout of foreign confidence in the US. that is something you cannot put a price on. They've bombed big time. and why? because all the republicans were scared to vote yes, since McCain had stated a no. Notice how the chief culprit for this mess, Greenspan, has remained silent throughout. lol. In any case, may also be good: once and for all, send the world into a deep recession, and from there, we can recover. edit: is there any others that i should be updating? |
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| 30-Sep-2008 10:33 |
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DOW
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"So much for democracy. I wonder how many of the house representatives voted against the bill just to appear sympathetic to the masses. " The answer to that, CWQuah, is 133 republicans and 95 democrats. 
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/09/29/194552.aspx Einstein was right. "Only two things are certain in life, death and stupidity; and i'm not sure about the former." 
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| 30-Sep-2008 10:18 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Fed will very likely cut rates by 50 basis points now. latest news just out. idiots. lol. political wayang at its best: because McCain had stormed in saying he didn't want it; so 133 republicans voted against it. They really want to win the election. don't want to pass 700bil, DJIA pays 1 trillion, and we can expect a tripling from Asia and Europe.
well, best chance to buy. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 10:02 |
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J.B passed away
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there goes a good man. 
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| 30-Sep-2008 09:47 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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eyes sharp for bargains today, peeps. eyes sharp for bargains. so many, don't know what to buy. am hurriedly going through ARs and charts now. lol. update the list: as of right now: not yet for capland, no touching china plays (sure to tank when HSI opens), if STE doesn't dip further it's a buy. UIC is lkg very attractive but i'd like lower (NAV 179), SGX KIV, commods no go. OCBC not yet. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 03:52 |
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Great Depression Part II ?
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yah. the history of idiocy. The cost to the US currently is 1 trillion (DJIA lost 700 points so far). Asia and Europe will definitely add to that tomorrow. Global markets are going to freeze, and the US has forever lost whatever shreds of credibility it has in the face of the world. No wonder why China ordered to keep USD reserves to a minimum. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 03:49 |
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DOW
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the DJIA is down 700 points. 1 trillion in value has been wiped out. 1 trillion, versus a bailout of 700bil. That's not including Asia and Europe's losses tomorrow. You can be sure the figure's going to triple. Man, i knew the americans were bad at mathematics, but i never expected them to be this bad. and with one stroke of idiocy, the world markets are wiped out. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 02:34 |
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DOW
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well, realistically speaking, the STI supports are 2,340, 2,190 and 1,730. hold your horses for tomorrow, people. talk about political grandstanding. damn republicans. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 01:56 |
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DOW
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i don't believe it, the bailout didn't go through. damn republicans voted no. bailout rejected with 2007 vs 206 votes. DJIA crashed 600 pts upon the news. This is insane. Global markets are going to tank tomorrow. So much for the "greatest power in the world." |
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| 29-Sep-2008 22:32 |
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Will STI break 1800?
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i wonder if our dear SGX would be interested in mister louis leecs and his "bb from gg" and "angmoh remisers". The following being from SGX's rules and regulations to the public: "If you have information concerning an instance of market misconduct, including information on insider trading or market manipulation, you can inform SGX by writing to: Market Surveillance & Enforcement Department, Risk Management & Regulation Group, Singapore Exchange Limited, 2 Shenton Way #19-00 SGX Centre 1, Singapore 068804 " |
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| 29-Sep-2008 22:25 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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that's just shortists covering back lah.
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| 29-Sep-2008 16:09 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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they're killing yl as expected. ref my post on 25th saying "which also means we can expect concerted effort to push down yl's px tmrw and mon". note there's no support for yl below 89 as from depth data now. |
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| 29-Sep-2008 15:19 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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dow futures are negative because the bailout being agreed upon is not the carte blanche plan Paulson wanted, but a tiered bailout, which is actually not as helpful to the market. separately, have you guys ever wondered what or who the bailout is for? here's something interesting to consider on a slow day. 1) All the banks that were collapsing were holding the so-called 'toxic mortgages' which cannot be sold. they're konwn as level 3 assets in the US: ie, it's up to the seller to price what they think they're worth. 2) Their current worth is 22c to the dollar. However, the Fed is asking to price them at market level or above. (ie, at or above $1). So the question is, who the hell would want to buy it? 3) Who did all the banks sell their toxic mortgages to? The Fed. The Fed has spent billions bailing out these banks, in effect by giving a "cash for trash" return. Like the bailout for AIG: what they did was to buy over the toxic, illiquid mortgages at prices above what people were willing to pay. Same for freddie, fannie, and the investment banks. 4) If it says anything: The Fed had 800bil on its balance sheet. It has spent more than 600bil bailing out various banks, capital injections etcetc. 230bil of that was spent in the last 2 months alone. ie, the Fed itself probably has less than 200bil reserves. Not enough to bail out another bank (that's why Lehman had to go), perhaps enough only for a few more capital injections. In other words, the institution going insolvent is the Fed itself. And this is why the bailout has to be passed, and fast. Nov 15th is the deadline for mark to market of Level 3 assets. Because banks can go insolvent, mortgage firms can go insolvent, but the national reserve cannot fall. Lest you guys think i'm spreading rumors: http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/09/26/extraordinary-times/. also, the following article: ----------------- By Avery Goodman @ Seeking Alpha I happened to come across several articles written by New York Post business writer, John Crudelle and a number of others. They believe fervently in an organization known as the “PPT”, or “Plunge Protection Team”, which was allegedly created by Presidential order, in 1987, after the 22% one day market crash that year. Mr. Crudelle, along with some private economists, and Congressman Ron Paul, apparently, all believe in this conspiracy. These folks are not fools, so it is worth giving serious consideration to whether or not it really exists. The official name is the “President’s Commission on Working Capital Markets”, but PPT believers allege that it has devolved into a conspiracy between the biggest banks in the nation (primary dealers of the Fed), the Chairman of the SEC, Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman to control markets. Allegedly, the PPT’s original mission was to infrequently intervene, only in emergency situations, when the falling markets might get out of control, by using cash injections, delivered by the Federal Reserve, through its various money delivery “windows”, such as the repo loan window, and, now, the secretive dealer discount window, term auction securities window, etc. According to PPT theorists, the organization is now dedicated to using the Fed balance sheet to produce trading profits for its private players, by manipulating markets up and down, and doing the “pump & dump” while using taxpayer funds to pay the costs of the program. I don’t know if PPT really exists, but, if it does, it certainly explains a lot. When you look at the history of money given out at the so-called “repo” window, and the amount of free cash that is floating at any one time, there does seem to be a distinct relationship to the rising and falling of the stock market. After reading some of the articles, I began thinking about the $700 billion bailout. I took the time to recalculate the Federal Reserve balance sheets, and suddenly realized that it has accepted almost exactly $700 billion worth of toxic mortgage paper, in return for ostensible loans that many of the big banks cannot possibly repay. It just so happens that that is the sum of money they want to extract from Congress. You can’t help but see that the so-called “loans”, given by the Fed to the banks, have changed the composition of its balance sheet dramatically. The Fed’s assets went from nearly 100% liquid Treasury bills, to mostly illiquid “cash for trash” mortgage bonds. The illiquidity of the mortgage bonds would mean that the Fed could no longer raise sufficient funds to adequately support the PPT conspiracy, if, in fact, that is what it wants to do. I call the illiquid securities “cash for trash” because the Fed has given treasury bills or cash in exchange for these distressed mortgage backed securities. They are supposed to hold the bonds for a very short time, but, in fact, most of the cash for trash loans have been endlessly renewed, month after month. Assuming, however, that Congress passes the bailout bill, the U.S. Treasury will have authority to buy these same bonds permanently, removing a headache for the Fed, and freeing up its balance sheet to continue funding for the market manipulation that PPT theorists allege. Let’s indulge ourselves, for a moment, and assume that PPT does exist. If so, the $700 billion bailout is not only for insolvent banks. They already have gotten rid of these toxic assets by placing them with the Fed, and obtaining endlessly renewable Fed loans in return. It appears to be a bailout of the Federal Reserve, itself. The Fed, of course, according to PPT theory, acts as the PPT’s private slush fund. Money is taken out to pump up stock prices, and then taken back in so that prices will fall. The PPT players profit on the movements of the market, induced by this activity. If all of this is true, maybe, Bernanke and Paulson don't want to admit the embarrassing facts? How could they go to Congress and say, “I’m sorry, but we need more money at the Fed. Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) aren’t able to manipulate markets as effectively as they would like. So, please, could you help us?” According to PPT theory, the Fed has been used as a slush fund to support stock manipulation for over 21 years now. The U.S. Treasury was forced to try to partially recapitalize the nearly insolvent Federal Reserve by selling $100 billion in new Treasury Bills, last week. The giveaways, to primary dealers and others, have taxed the Fed to the breaking point. Whatever the truth or falsity of PPT theory may be, one thing is clear. Mismanagement of the nation's central bank, in the form of giving out loans that cannot be repaid, is so severe that the central bank itself is now virtually insolvent. Some of the banks who borrowed tens of billions of dollars are now bankrupt (Lehman Brothers), and will never repay. Fed will be stuck with that cash for trash. Most other banks are too shaky and close to bankruptcy to ever repay. Instead of foreclosing, as a bank would do to an individual, the Fed has responded by endlessly renewing the loans. The loans have become gifts, and the Fed has run out of money, because it has also become nearly insolvent. And, let’s not forget, if PPT theory is true, without heavy use of public funds, the PPT players cannot generate large private profits. The Federal Reserve has been paying very close to par value for these distressed assets, even though a lot of the assets are only worth $0.22 on the dollar, or even less, in the private market. It has only taken a very small “haircut” to accept them. That is, no doubt, why Ben Bernanke slipped up and admitted he wants the U.S. Treasury to pay much more than fair market value. Otherwise, either the banks or the Federal Reserve will be forced to write down big losses when the mortgage paper is transferred onto the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury. So, is the $700 billion being disguised as a bailout for banks, when it is really for bailing out the Federal Reserve? Is it a way of avoiding the embarrassment of walking into Congress and admitting the truth of the need for Congress to authorize issuance of new Treasury bills to recapitalize the nation’s central bank? Will the stock market drop sharply if the Fed “slush fund” is not recapitalized? Will recapitalization of the Federal Reserve allow it to create a series of false rallies to allow people-in-the-know to dump equities into a temporarily rising stock market? I don’t know the answer to these questions. But, the arguments made by people who believe in the so-called “PPT” are interesting. If true, it would serve to explain a lot of the irrational market action we all observed over the past years. One thing I do know. Dow Jones’ Marketwatch reported that China has announced new regulations that order Chinese banks to temporarily not lend money to American financial institutions, because of the danger of default. If the story is correct, given that China has so many dollars, previously continued to accumulate more and more, and has always required private banks to hold large dollar reserves, this may mark the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar. |
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| 29-Sep-2008 13:34 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/capitaland.html yah, trader88, concur. warned on my bloggie on the 25th that capland would fall further already. px decline doesn't come as a surprise, but as a matter of fact. |
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| 28-Sep-2008 23:49 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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hehe. nice timing, baseer. :) especially with the "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is." just updated my blog, in light of the relationship managers article in the straits times today. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/relationship-managers.html kinda freaked out because they were giving buy calls for commods funds. >~< . it's two pretty long posts though. i've basically given the main reason why RMs don't know much about what they are recommending in one post. and in another, why right now, for me, i really would not choose to buy a commods fund. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/case-against-commodities-now.html do take a look if you folks have time, if you are curious to know how i combine FA and TA for a market read. may be helpful to the n00bs. 
alternatively, if you're considering buying a commods fund right now, pls. Just listen to an alternative elfin view before you make up your mind. No harm done having more perspective. It won't take you 10 min.
of course, do make up your own minds after reading. i'm not saying i'm definitely right. 
cheers! |
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| 26-Sep-2008 23:25 |
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Will STI break 1800?
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Citibank. May i present one of their analysts' call on Cosco, and the actual px movement before/after. You guys make your own conclusions. 11th april 08: Citi cuts cosco rating to sell, target px 2.7. the 7 trading days prior: Cosco tanked from high of 3.71 to 2.93 on april 11. notably, the largest drop occured on 9-10th april, a gap down from an open on the 9th from 3.55 to close 2.93 on the 10th. 12 and 13 april was the weekend. 14th april, the uptrend begins. from lowest of 2.79 to high of 3.63 on Apr 25th. and ah, get this: the precise day they called sell, the technical indicators (candlesticks, williams and stochs) show buy. 15th april close of 298 was a clear buy signal. Numbers do not lie. They reflect what was, what is. Like i say, follow the walk, not the talk. |
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| 26-Sep-2008 16:37 |
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How to edit our posting when we made the mistakes
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can't do so, as far as i know. that's how i end up with multiple posts going "edit: ....". heh. the alt is to ask admin of SJ to remove your post. but that'd probably fill up their mailbox a lot. no harm just reposting it properly in the right thread/with edits and note to ignore the post below. cheers! :) |
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| 26-Sep-2008 16:28 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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aiyah. actually, such things are very common. they're basically all done by prop traders. when they make it good, the company will not complain; but when they make huge losses, the first to go are these guys. btw, no way to edit here; i know, i have many posts i'd like to edit too. >~< anyhow, back to capland. next support in the 308-328 region. |
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| 26-Sep-2008 14:07 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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eh. I think you're talking about WaMu (washington mutual)? JPM Chase took it over for 1.9billion. This one shouldn't be a factor in market movement, since its collapse was whispered about (along with MS) for the past week or so already; kinda a given that it would fall. news article as attached: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24405622-643,00.html actually, what has collapsed has collapsed, what needed to be taken over/converted has been done so (GS and MS); the only thing affecting markets now is the bailout really. It's currently stalled in the White House. All the drama mamas wanting to make their protests known, when everyone knows they don't have a choice but to pass it. What can we say, it's election season. They can't be seen as patsys for the eating.
anyhow, see if 2,340 will hold now for the STI. ignore any shadows on the candles since they are whipsaws of panic reactions either way. |
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