ShareJunction - Member Posts

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To summarize, Chemical Fibre industry haven't fully recover.

dealer0168 ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 21:25) Posted:

Li Heng of course is better than China Sky. Initial i am thinking that they will be making a good recovery this qtr. But the outcome is not.

N looking deep into it, you will find that they actual recovery may comes only at 4 qtr or next year.

If to vest on long term, now i don't think is a good timing As won't know what will happen in next few mth also. Go for some other better stock first.

Come back fr it later......... since next qtr its result will still be with minimum profit. Maximise yr profit at other counter first.

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Li Heng of course is better than China Sky. Initial i am thinking that they will be making a good recovery this qtr. But the outcome is not.

N looking deep into it, you will find that they actual recovery may comes only at 4 qtr or next year.

If to vest on long term, now i don't think is a good timing As won't know what will happen in next few mth also. Go for some other better stock first.

Come back fr it later......... since next qtr its result will still be with minimum profit. Maximise yr profit at other counter first.

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Depend on yr age also. If u still young, but everytime stay at home just to do trading. N hardly go out socialize with people, not good not good.

Next time u may have problem communicating with people, hahaha.

N trading, i don't think we will be so chun everytime. Better have a job. Cheers.

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Sorry is:

Jiang Tai Gong Diao ~~Yue~~ Yu, Yuan Zhe Shang Gou

dealer0168 ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 14:38) Posted:

Follow the market trend i will say.

Some counter suppose not to shine , but its share price rises too fast due to speculating by people. This type of stock must not go long term to it. The unlucky one paid the price to get at the highest paid share value fr that counter. N will stuck there.

Anyway, there is a chinese phrase fr these people who got stuck there.

Jiang Tai Gong Diao Yue, Yuan Zhe Shang Gou

<Sometime is not they don't know, but bc of greed they just buy blindly n got stuck. Remember in this world no easy money>

Which counter/ type of counter they are, i shall not point out to safeguard the interest of the investor.

Hold only stock with good FA. Rem, only hold those that has not realised its truth value only. Those that has share value that is very high already ....forget abt it.

N leave abt 50% of the cash for short term trading of some stocks. Earn some money.....cheers.

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Follow the market trend i will say.

Some counter suppose not to shine , but its share price rises too fast due to speculating by people. This type of stock must not go long term to it. The unlucky one paid the price to get at the highest paid share value fr that counter. N will stuck there.

Anyway, there is a chinese phrase fr these people who got stuck there.

Jiang Tai Gong Diao Yue, Yuan Zhe Shang Gou

<Sometime is not they don't know, but bc of greed they just buy blindly n got stuck. Remember in this world no easy money>

Which counter/ type of counter they are, i shall not point out to safeguard the interest of the investor.

Hold only stock with good FA. Rem, only hold those that has not realised its truth value only. Those that has share value that is very high already ....forget abt it.

N leave abt 50% of the cash for short term trading of some stocks. Earn some money.....cheers.

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U.S. Stocks Drop for the First Time in Five Weeks on Valuations

By Lynn Thomasson

Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five weeks as an unexpected drop in consumer confidence fueled concern the steepest rally since the 1930s isn’t justified by economic prospects.

Best Buy Co. sank the most in two months, losing 8.3 percent, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said increased competition may hurt profits at the world’s largest electronics retailer. Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. declined at least 4.5 percent after Dick Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Securities, said financial companies’ earnings won’t improve in the second half of the year. J.C. Penney Co. and Sara Lee Corp. slid more than 9 percent as their earnings forecasts trailed estimates.

“What really could cause a pause is investors observing valuations and worrying that stocks could be ahead of themselves,” said Lawrence Creatura, a Rochester, New York- based money manager at Federated Investors Inc., which oversees $407 billion. “The consumer is on his back.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.6 percent to 1,004.09. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 48.67 points, or 0.5 percent, to 9,321.4. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 0.7 percent to 1,985.52. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies lost 1.5 percent to 563.9.

‘Dramatically Overpriced’

U.S. stocks are “dramatically overpriced” because the fallout from the financial crisis will continue to hurt consumer spending, said David Tice, Federated Investors Inc.’s chief portfolio strategist for bear markets. Tice, who spoke in an interview with Bloomberg Television, predicted that the S&P 500 will eventually slump to 400 and said he would add to short positions if the market goes much higher.

The 50 percent rebound in the S&P 500 through Aug. 13 from a 12-year low on March 9 pushed the index’s valuation to 18.7 times the profits of its companies, the highest level since December 2004, according to Bloomberg data. The rally was the fastest since at least 1938, according to Bloomberg data.

Best Buy tumbled 8.3 percent to $36.44. Goldman Sachs downgraded the retailer to “neutral” from “buy,” citing its “aggressive” spending to fuel growth.

A measure of retailers, hotels and restaurants in the S&P 500 dropped 2.6 percent for the steepest decline among the 10 main industries in the index. The group has rallied 20 percent this year.

Forecasts Miss Estimates

J.C. Penney retreated 9.1 percent to $31.29. The third- largest U.S. department-store chain issued a third-quarter forecast that missed analysts’ estimates amid declining sales. Results in the current quarter may range from a loss of 5 cents a share to a profit of 5 cents, the company said. Analysts had projected a 13-cent profit, the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Sara Lee, the maker of frozen cakes and Jimmy Dean sausages, slid 12 percent to $9.45. Weakening revenue from the company’s household and body-care products drove its 2010 earnings prediction below analysts’ estimates.

Confidence among shoppers unexpectedly declined this month amid growing concern over jobs and wages. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 63.2, the lowest since March, from 66 in July. Economists had forecast it would rise to 69, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.

“There’s some cautiousness about the outlook for the rest of this year and next year,” said John Carey, a Boston-based money manager at Pioneer Investments, which oversees $236.5 billion worldwide. “This spring it seemed that consumer confidence was coming back, and now it seems to be falling off again.”

‘Take Some Profits’

Morgan Stanley slumped 4.6 percent to $29.79. Bank of New York Mellon retreated 5.7 percent to $28.57. The rally that more than doubled the KBW Bank Index since March was driven by a change in attitude and not the near-term earnings outlook, Bove said.

“The rational investor would step away from psychology at this point and take some profits,” he wrote in an Aug. 11 research report.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. climbed 5.1 percent, the most since March, to $51.79. The world’s largest retailer reported second- quarter profit that beat analysts’ forecasts after managing inventory to reduce costs. The chain also attracted more customers, helped by price reductions on its Sam’s Choice Black Angus beef patties, baked beans and flat-panel televisions.

Target Corp., Home Depot Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. are among companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to release results next week. The housing and manufacturing slumps that pushed the U.S. into the worst recession since the 1930s probably eased, economists forecast reports next week will show.

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Swiber my favourite counter also. But weird, this year no new contract fr it. Instead its counterpart Mermaid got so many contract.

I think Swiber needs to sack its existing marketing group n get in some new blood. Its existing marketing group not working leh this yr....

dcang84 ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 11:16) Posted:

The point was it can't go lower than a 'SELL' rating. It would DEFINITELY be upgraded.Kekeke... Smiley

dealer0168 ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 11:06) Posted:

Emm too slow too slow. OCBC already come up with the latest review (see below). Emm ignore the old one pal. Cheers.

Swiber Holdings: Regaining margin stability. Upgrade to HOLD.

By Low Pei Han
Fri, 14 Aug 2009, 18:28:23 SGT

Swiber Holdings Ltd (Swiber) reported a 11% YoY fall in revenue to US$110.8m and a 18.7% drop in net attributable profit to US$16.9m for 2Q09. Results were largely in line with expectations as 1H09 revenue and net profit account for 55% of our full-year estimates. Although gross margins were lower compared to 2Q08, we are heartened to find that the group has regained margin stability ever since registering a loss in 4Q08 due to cost overruns. Though margins have stabilized, they are still lower than the historically higher margins that Swiber is used to but the group is exploring ways to enhance cost efficiencies. Swiber secured contracts totaling about US$93m in 2Q09, and its order book stands at US$509m. We have raised our FY09 and FY10 estimates with higher margin and stronger order flow assumptions and our valuation is now based on 8x blended FY09/10F earnings (previously 7x FY09F PER). As such our fair value estimate is raised to S$0.96 and we upgrade our rating to HOLD.

Results largely in line with expectations. Swiber Holdings Ltd (Swiber) reported a 11% YoY fall in revenue to US$110.8m and a 18.7% drop in net attributable profit to US$16.9m for 2Q09. Results were largely in line with expectations as 1H09 revenue and net profit account for 55% of our full-year estimates. Revenue was lower due to completion of projects in Malaysia (four projects were being executed in 2Q09 compared to six projects in 2Q08). Although gross margins were lower at 21.5% in 2Q09 compared to 26% in 2Q08, we are heartened to find that the group has regained margin stability ever since registering a loss in 4Q08 due to cost overruns. Other operating income rose by US$4.5m from US$1.4m in 2Q08 due to gain on disposal of assets arising mainly from the sale of vessels under the sale and leaseback arrangements.

Lower margins due to subcontracting costs. Though margins have stabilized, they are still lower than its historically better margins (Exhibit 1). Gross profit in 2Q09 was affected by fabrication costs which was subcontracted, though the three construction vessels (Swiber Supporter, Concorde and Victorious) which the group took delivery in 1Q09 helped to reduce reliance on third party vessels. Swiber is hence exploring ways to achieve cost efficiencies and an example is its partnership with CUEL which performs offshore vessel fabrication.

Net gearing dropped despite more bank loans. Net gearing fell from 0.94x as at 31 Mar 09 to 0.75x as at 30 Jun 09, aided by net proceeds of US$49.8m from a share placement in June this year. However, we note that short term debt has risen from US$42.5m on 31 Mar 09 to US$66m on 30 Jun 09, and long term debt from US$189.8m to US$210.4m.

Upgrade to HOLD. Swiber secured offshore contracts totaling about US$93m in 2Q09, and its order book is marginally lower at US$509m compared to US$515m as at 31 Mar 09 (Exhibit 2). Moreover we note the delivery plans for two vessels are delayed, probably portending reduced work momentum (Exhibit 3). Despite this, we have raised our FY09 and FY10 estimates with higher margin and order flow assumptions. Our valuation is now based on 8x blended FY09/10F core earnings (previously 7x FY09F PER). As such our fair value estimate is raised to S$0.96 and we upgrade our rating to HOLD.

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Emm too slow too slow. OCBC already come up with the latest review (see below). Emm ignore the old one pal. Cheers.

Swiber Holdings: Regaining margin stability. Upgrade to HOLD.

By Low Pei Han
Fri, 14 Aug 2009, 18:28:23 SGT

Swiber Holdings Ltd (Swiber) reported a 11% YoY fall in revenue to US$110.8m and a 18.7% drop in net attributable profit to US$16.9m for 2Q09. Results were largely in line with expectations as 1H09 revenue and net profit account for 55% of our full-year estimates. Although gross margins were lower compared to 2Q08, we are heartened to find that the group has regained margin stability ever since registering a loss in 4Q08 due to cost overruns. Though margins have stabilized, they are still lower than the historically higher margins that Swiber is used to but the group is exploring ways to enhance cost efficiencies. Swiber secured contracts totaling about US$93m in 2Q09, and its order book stands at US$509m. We have raised our FY09 and FY10 estimates with higher margin and stronger order flow assumptions and our valuation is now based on 8x blended FY09/10F earnings (previously 7x FY09F PER). As such our fair value estimate is raised to S$0.96 and we upgrade our rating to HOLD.

Results largely in line with expectations. Swiber Holdings Ltd (Swiber) reported a 11% YoY fall in revenue to US$110.8m and a 18.7% drop in net attributable profit to US$16.9m for 2Q09. Results were largely in line with expectations as 1H09 revenue and net profit account for 55% of our full-year estimates. Revenue was lower due to completion of projects in Malaysia (four projects were being executed in 2Q09 compared to six projects in 2Q08). Although gross margins were lower at 21.5% in 2Q09 compared to 26% in 2Q08, we are heartened to find that the group has regained margin stability ever since registering a loss in 4Q08 due to cost overruns. Other operating income rose by US$4.5m from US$1.4m in 2Q08 due to gain on disposal of assets arising mainly from the sale of vessels under the sale and leaseback arrangements.

Lower margins due to subcontracting costs. Though margins have stabilized, they are still lower than its historically better margins (Exhibit 1). Gross profit in 2Q09 was affected by fabrication costs which was subcontracted, though the three construction vessels (Swiber Supporter, Concorde and Victorious) which the group took delivery in 1Q09 helped to reduce reliance on third party vessels. Swiber is hence exploring ways to achieve cost efficiencies and an example is its partnership with CUEL which performs offshore vessel fabrication.

Net gearing dropped despite more bank loans. Net gearing fell from 0.94x as at 31 Mar 09 to 0.75x as at 30 Jun 09, aided by net proceeds of US$49.8m from a share placement in June this year. However, we note that short term debt has risen from US$42.5m on 31 Mar 09 to US$66m on 30 Jun 09, and long term debt from US$189.8m to US$210.4m.

Upgrade to HOLD. Swiber secured offshore contracts totaling about US$93m in 2Q09, and its order book is marginally lower at US$509m compared to US$515m as at 31 Mar 09 (Exhibit 2). Moreover we note the delivery plans for two vessels are delayed, probably portending reduced work momentum (Exhibit 3). Despite this, we have raised our FY09 and FY10 estimates with higher margin and order flow assumptions. Our valuation is now based on 8x blended FY09/10F core earnings (previously 7x FY09F PER). As such our fair value estimate is raised to S$0.96 and we upgrade our rating to HOLD.

dcang84 ( Date: 16-Aug-2009 10:53) Posted:

< fair value estimate of S$0.62 and SELL rating under review pending an analysts’ briefing in the afternoon.> Smiley

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Ya u maybe right bro. But i still prefer the asiatic u recommend than this one.

This one , i agreed with Peck Gong that there is a rally time-flame fr this babe.

Will only profit when get in at right pricing.

smartrader ( Date: 15-Aug-2009 18:52) Posted:

Yes, rights shares dilute the share price if company raise funds for no good reasons. Obviously, the funds raised in previous rights (was not vested then) were needed to transform business. Hopefully, the Management get the formula right this time. Right Shares is good for shareholders if the fund is well-utilised to increase shareholders' values in expansion...

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But Equation offer too many rights already leh. From 2006 to 2009, total 3 times.

Too many share, won't the share price become too diluted? Haha this company management seems like to ask for money everytime.

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Equation 2nd qtr results not out yet right?

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Monday maybe a day fr us to go to market to buy "things" again.......loh

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Cheongwee, fr me bc Li Heng is china stock. If it is local stock, i still can play with it. N another thing, is now already mid Aug, don't play play...no time wait fr Li Heng. If u observe, the hold power for China stock seem not strong to investors. Seems to be. I'm reducing my China stock now. But still holding some China stock with good FA (which is well support by China simulas package as well). More confident holding to them, wishing to profit more fr them. Anyway,that time i went into Li Heng due to yi si cheong dong (Go in at 0.26, too expensive liao). A bad mistake that cost me $$$. Anyway cover back from other counter profit....so still ok lah. The price up is good fr those vested at high price, as they got chance to profit n let go their share to the new owner.

cheongwee ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:59) Posted:

i really cannot understand, if there is not play, how u expect stock to move up,,,,and if it didnt move up say another thing.....why the stock cannmot move..

Li Heng is a good stock, it is not like jade or centillion or Rowsley...far from it...

it is 26c and nav 43c...way undervalue..that is...and if take the current report into consideration..it is improving...it is not making a loss...

and you dont see it next month or next year,,,

you see movement next week...i hear something which prompt me to jump back in...

i was out after the report...but bought back some immediately....

i dont want to taunt or laugh at ppl, but like healthway ,they got scare and jump boat....end game..

and they always regret....

equator2010 ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:48) Posted:

I agree with you. I can only imagine speculative play at this point.

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Maybe someone is speculating on this stock. So if want to play Li Heng, u have to monitor closely loh.

When u see sudden drop, than back track.

For me, i cut lost on this n will not come bk for this qtr again at least (until i'm convince on Li Heng capability to up its profit to previous high again).

As i feel it current movement up may not be sustainable. N i did not have time to monitor this type play also.

equator2010 ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:23) Posted:

I practise cut loss too, but on the other hand also wants to avoid cutting loss too much, in fact my "cut loss" of Li Heng based on the facts listed below in my earlier post. The reason why I'm asking my question below is, why when several of the chinese counters are receding, Li Heng is still going up (I know the fundamentals and long-term are good) but in my opinion, in view the coming bear fall, is a rather high price to pay to enter, unless of course BBs are intending to play up this counter.

equator2010 ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 21:36) Posted:

Cheongwee, can you please help me understand why Li Heng is going up again? The results were not impressive and I think this suckers rally bubble's gonna burst soon. Li Heng has been up a lot since a month ago (?) due to speculation. Might get stuck at high price if go in now. Maybe it's something I'm missing.

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Emm FSL, i don't thk they will do a Rickmer. They already did the necessities fr this recession period (by forecasting the reduce of divi to US $15 / lot fr next 2 qtr).

N i like them is bc they are stronger in:

1) new more sustainable business model

2) its diversified vessel mix of containers, tankers and dry bulk carriers.

Rickmer sudden cut in DPU , to be frank is expected.

Issues compounded for Rickmers Maritime (RMT) because of its high leverage and sizeable contracted acquisitions that were committed to during the better days.

N to recap, their concerns include:

1) loan-to-value covenants on existing loans;

2) loan-to-value requirements that affect RMT’s ability to draw down committed loan facilities for the US$207m Hanjin acquisitions due in 2H09

3) a need to repay up to US$154m in loans next year

4) no arranged financing for the US$711.6m in contracted acquisitions due next year

5) the likely redelivery of a vessel in February 2010 that could impact cash flows.

They are unlucky lah......plan wrongly during the good days.

Want to keep still can, its divi drop now.............. but may up back in next year/ or when times are good.

Depend on how individual thinks lah.........

lawcheemeng ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 21:57) Posted:

aiya!!! omg !!! this is really out of every one expectation. most of us knew that the earning increase as they took delivery of new vessel. this is really unexpected.!! price will surely take a tumble on monday. at this rate alot will dump this an move over to FSL. but than again, wat happen if next QTR FSL do the same?? there is a lesson tobe learn for most of us here. nothing is for sure loh. !! is the management prudent in making this decision, in my is veiw it not. for one reason is that , even they do not pay out any D for next 3 qtr the amt retain is still way from the amt require to settle the debt. so not happy investor wat happen?. share price drop loh.!! why not do a share placement like city spring.??? aiya!! "jia luck liao" come monday. ( just my view )

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If not wrong it has the share of Abterra.

lawcheemeng ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 22:05) Posted:

may i know wat have Leroi has to do with abttera??

gh3yboy ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 21:45) Posted:

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20090814/LTN20090814061.PDF

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So that mean the divi is only US $6/ lot. ...........

I thk will be a shock to its investor.

upforever ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 20:01) Posted:

Mainboard-listed shipping trust, Rickmers Maritime, said its distributable income for the second quarter rose 42 per cent to US$19.6 million from a year ago.
But distribution per unit for the quarter dropped 73 per cent to 0.6 US cents as the trust wants to retain cash and strengthen its balance sheet amid the current economic uncertainties. Charter revenue for the three months to June rose 59 per cent to US$37.6 million. Rickmers said its revenue has so far been unaffected by the economic slowdown as its ships are chartered out on long-term fixed-rate charters. But it admits that the downturn in the global economy and the container shipping industry has created challenges on several fronts. These include value-to-loan covenants and the refinancing of a US$130 million facility maturing next April. As such, it has decided to reduce the payout to unit holders for the quarter to remain prudent. Looking ahead, the manager of the shipping trust said the downturn in container shipping is expected to be prolonged. But for the immediate future, Rickmers said its priority is to take delivery of its orderbook and finalise agreements with the lending banks.

matthewsoh ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 18:14) Posted:

anyone got news please post... Me outside haha thankvyou

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Midas recent new contract is alot. Next 2 qtr result will be better as well. My view is above $1 mark is possible n sustainable.

Bintang ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 19:45) Posted:

Hi dealer , this is all pure TA measurement n has no time frame . What is your view ? Thanks .

dealer0168 ( Date: 14-Aug-2009 19:40) Posted:

Bintang, i like yr this news: could get minimum target of $1.28 Smiley

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Just saw its 2nd qtr result, emm profit earning seems ok only.....leh. But got improvement compare to last year one.

Monday see how.....it react.

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Bintang, i like yr this news: could get minimum target of $1.28 Smiley