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Hi equator2010,
Many thanks for your appreciation, it is my passion and I enjoys sharing my knowledge n hope to exchange pointers with all and learn from each other to better arm oursleves and survive and prosper in this treacherous, merciless killing fields, always mindful to myself to be open-minded n receptive to others views to make myself a better person.
equator2010 ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:36) Posted:
richtan, I, like many others in the forum, appreciate your detailed analyses and constructive comments.
dcang84 ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 21:07) Posted:
Just as I thot. Only hot air. |
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Not necessary, it is not casted in stone, there are myriads of other factors to take into considerations too, eg mkt sentiments, news, announcements, etc.
Assuming all these factors does not come into play, then after ex-div, the price generally will correct slightly to discount the run-up in price after div announcement, but since the div announcement, there wasn't any run-up in price, cororect me if I m wrong.
bennykusman ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:40) Posted:
hi richtan, but usually after CD ends (which is this week if not mistaken), the price will fall right ?
risktaker ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:06) Posted:
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Very high chances it will bounce off with high opening and up all the way. Please do not sell it off as it will climb higher. Reason why i am thinking of selling off Genting and hammer this share is. Midas is a proven successfully business and with lots of potential and growth in it.
On the other hand Genting did not. Casino is all over the world and with economic crisis around some casino is not even making money. There is certain risks involved in this business. Of course we all know that gambling business is almost a 100% winning machine provided they are able to pull crowd. For Pre-opening yes people will go, question is can they substain it "$200 per entry is not going to draw alot of locals" But do they think they can draw international gamblers to SG? On paper everything will sound good and fantastic.
So it will be a short term investment from November Pre-Opening to first 3-6 months of operation. if everything goes according to my calculation Genting will reached its peak around Nov to Feb. Then slowly retreat and will rally again if its report is good.
Anyway Midas midas can you wait for me ? dont cheong so fast lol :) |
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Hahaha.... I stick out my head to vouch for you, I really hope n do believe u are not tat banned guy, my nemesis tat I m glad had disappeared into thin air.
Hope my trust in u is not misplaced.
risktaker ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:08) Posted:
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i am pretty confused . . . what do you mean i am new to this ? yes i am new to this forum..... when did i get banned?
pikachu ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:03) Posted:
Well... up to you to believe me or not. But I'm pretty convinced he is the banned person due to the same pattern of posting and wording of sentences. That kind of habit is very difficult to change.
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Ooops, typo error, should be:
I very much believe and convinced he/she is "not" tat banned person ......
richtan ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:25) Posted:
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Hi pikachu,
I very much believe and convinced he/she is tat banned person as tat person very much like to post simply a few words without facts or substances, make unjustified wild calls, exhorting buy/sell calls, making "GOD-like" statements, thus why I ever ticked him/her off, fearing he/she will misled newbies, triggering a series of unpleasant incidences, resulting in his/her being "banned" n disappeared from this forum, giving some sense of serenity n peace here
pikachu ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:03) Posted:
Well... up to you to believe me or not. But I'm pretty convinced he is the banned person due to the same pattern of posting and wording of sentences. That kind of habit is very difficult to change.
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Hi pikachu,
I very much believe and convinced he/she is tat banned person as tat person very much like to post simply a few words without facts or substances, make unjustified wild calls, exhorting buy/sell calls, making "GOD-like" statements, thus why I ever ticked him/her off, fearing he/she will misled newbies, triggering a series of unpleasant incidences, resulting in his/her being "banned" n disappeared from this forum, giving some sense of serenity n peace here
pikachu ( Date: 19-Aug-2009 00:03) Posted:
Well... up to you to believe me or not. But I'm pretty convinced he is the banned person due to the same pattern of posting and wording of sentences. That kind of habit is very difficult to change.
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:20) Posted:
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Hi pikachu,
My gut feel is risktaker is not tat banned person as so far from my observation, risktaker does add value to this forum with substances n share his/her FA n TA with logical reasoning (imo) but still dyodd n BOSAYOR after reading anybody's analysis or write-ups. |
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JMO, I very much doubt so as today's white up candle is a reversal candle with higher vol and quite similar to 16/6/09 and even much better than it, but still dyodd n BOSAYOR
bennykusman ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 23:49) Posted:
any chance it will drop first ?
risktaker ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 23:44) Posted:
| so maybe in the morning i shall sell off my genting and hammer 500 lots into midas ? |
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Better dyodd, just listen and monitor for yourself whether are they chun, dun follow blindly, they are not GOD, dun wait kena played to holland by all these anal-ist.
smartrader ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 22:44) Posted:
A lady analyst on CNA just now suggested to wait for 20% correction before getting in. Hope it comes true ...then you can stay on sideline for a long time..
if you can let go a long term stock after riding the wave up till now, then I guess you are not strong in your belief in the long term prospect. --- looing at 200-1000% gain for a long term stock (depending on the entry price).
Index up and now has no impact on my portfolio unless i want to time market to make that few points.
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Midas indeed did a bounced up from the 25ema just like the candle on 16/6/09 and even better than it and formed a reversal white candle on higher vol than yesterday
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:44) Posted:
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Midas is now doing a bounce up from the 25ema just like the candle on 16/6/09 and even better than it.
Thus why I always emphasise the reason why I always based on EOD data to avoid intraday fake-out, but of course, it is still anybody's guess as it might close and break below the 25ema, but even if it does, it may still be a fake breakdown, thus why I also always only exit if it hit below my exit point for 2 continuous days.
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 12:11) Posted:
| Why personally I insist based on closing n 2 days continuous, is to avoid fake-outs, eg take a look at 16/6/09 candle, the next day after shaking out those panicky, it shoots up, to get wat I mean |
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Reversal white candle formed today with higher vol than yesterday
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 15:18) Posted:
Vol is fast catching up with yesterday's vol
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:48) Posted:
| No prize for guessing right, since I dun exit, I m a buyer just now, bot at 0.83 but will exit if it hit my stop-loss below 0.835 on closing for 2 continuous days |
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Congrats to u too.
Lets HUAT together
star-trader ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 22:09) Posted:
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RichTan,
I vested on this too at 0.575. Half-engulfing bullish pattern forms today and increase of volume as per say..
rgds, star-trader
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:56) Posted:
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Trade Summary shows more buy-ups:
| WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.5762 |
LAST DONE PRICE : 0.585 |
| SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0085 |
AVG TRADE SIZE : 54.151 |
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Congrats especially to those who followed my chart analysis and dared to buy last Fri when it presents one of the best opportunity
when it bounced off the 15ema with tight stop-loss if it close below the 25ema or 65ema.
AusGroup delivers record earnings of AUD$21.9 million for FY2009
Earnings surged 52% against an increase of over 26% in turnover to AUD$478.2 million
Robust net cash flow of AUD$63.1 million from operations
Strong balance sheet with a net cash position gearing wise
Current order book of AUD$403 million as at 31 July 2009
SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA – 18 August 2009 – AusGroup Limited (“AusGroup” or “the Group”), specialist service provider to the natural resources sector, today announced strong earnings growth for the twelve months ended 30 June 2009 (“FY2009”).
Increased activity levels in the Australian construction segment fuelled the revenue growth for FY2009.
The gross profit jumped over 48% to AUD$71.5 million in FY2009 as the gross profit margin improved from 12.7% in FY2008 to 14.9% in FY2009.
The margin improvement was due to improved project execution and timing of variation approvals of several projects within the Australian engineering segment which were finalized in the last quarter of FY2009. However, increased depreciation charges, as a result of the capital works program of FY2008 and FY2009 and certain lower margin contracts in the Australian services segment have offset the increase in gross profit margins faintly.
Other operating income for FY2009 increased by 86% to AUD$3.6 million due to the sale of properties (14 Tuas Link 1 and 4 Tuas Link 1) in Singapore and due to increased interest income earned during the financial year on the cash balances held.
Overall, total overhead expenses (excluding impairments) increased in line with the increased business activity, but remained stable at about 7.0% – 7.5% of the Group’s revenue.
The Group had impairment expenses of AUD$4.1 million in FY2009 that related to impairment of assets held for sale of AUD$1.3 million and the impairment of goodwill related to Cactus of about AUD$2.7 million.
The net profit margin improved from 3.8% in FY2008 to 4.6% in FY2009. The basic earnings per share for FY2009 were 5.5 Australian cents compared with that of 3.6 Australian cents in FY2008.
There was no material impact on the Group’s profit after tax as a result of the acquisition of Modern Access Services Pty Ltd (“MAS”) as MAS was part of the Group for only one month in FY2009.
Higher profit level and better working capital management helped generate robust net cash flow from operating activities of AUD$63.1 million in FY2009.
The cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet as at 30 June 2009 stood at AUD$25.2 million.
In FY2009, the Group repaid borrowings of AUD$27.6 million and ended the financial year with a net cash position gearing wise.
Shareholders’ equity increased from AUD$88.6 million as at 30 June 2008 to AUD$116.1 million as at 30 June 2009 mainly due to FY2009 profit contributions.
In addition shareholder equity was positively impacted by an increase in the foreign exchange translation reserve as a result of the Singapore dollar strengthening against the Australian dollar and from the issue of additional shares on the acquisition of MAS.
“We are pleased by the Group’s performance in FY2009. The results are encouraging and indicate we are on the right track as we continue to implement
our FIX, BUILD, GROW strategy. We still have a lot of work to do as we seek to improve the consistency of earnings across all parts of our business. This will be a major focus for us over the next 12 months. That said we have a challenging 6 months ahead as the effects of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) impact our revenues and earnings, particularly in the mineral resources sector.
Activity in this sector has been impacted over the last 9 months as a number of resource development projects were delayed, deferred or cancelled.
What is encouraging is that we are now seeing increased tendering activity across the mineral resources sector which in turn will flow on to improved demand for the Group’s services in the second half of 2010FY.
On the oil and gas side of our business we remain quietly confident as we are well positioned to secure opportunities from the strong Western Australian LNG
sector.
We have a strong order book, a healthy balance sheet, a clear and focused strategy and good exposure to the recovering demand in the natural resources
markets. We are well positioned to continue to deliver solid returns to our shareholders”
John Sheridan, CEO and Managing Director, AusGroup Limited
The Group’s order book stood at AUD$403 million as at 31 July 2009.
The Group continues to implement its strategic plan to improve operational performance and the strategy is being progressively implemented.
The Group expects, from time to time, delays in the finalizing of variations around certain types of construction projects which can create a degree of variability in the Group’s results from quarter to quarter. The Group’s accounting policy is to recognize costs as they are incurred, which may not match revenue from variations, as these have to be negotiated (sometimes protracted) with clients.
The Group wishes to inform that the presentation slides for the Group’s full year results briefing are available at the Group’s website, www.ausclad.com.au
--The End--
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Stocks, Metals Gain as German Confidence Indicates Recovery
By Stuart Wallace
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks and U.S. futures advanced and industrial metals climbed as a biggest-than- estimated increase in German investor confidence and earnings from Home Depot Inc. indicated the global economy is recovering.
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations added 0.2 percent at 2:12 p.m. in London, rebounding from its biggest retreat since April. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.3 percent. Aluminum rose 3.3 percent and nickel 2.4 percent on the London Metal Exchange after a two-day drop. The yen fell against every one of the most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg except the Swiss franc.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research index of investor and analyst expectations rose to 56.1 in August from 39.5 in July, exceeding the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a reading of 45. Stocks trimmed some of their earlier gains after a Commerce Department report showed U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell in July.
“There is still much to be optimistic about for the second half of the year,” said Bill O’Neill, the London-based strategist at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management, which has $1.1 trillion in assets. “This ‘two steps forward, one step back’ pattern is typical of phases covering the end of a recession.”
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares added 0.6 percent, recovering from the biggest one-day drop since July 2, as raw-material producers gained with metals. A 43 percent rebound since March 9 has left the regional measure valued at 40.2 times the profits of its companies, near the most expensive since 2003, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Mining Company
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third-biggest mining company, gained 1.9 percent in London, while BHP Billiton Ltd., the largest, added 1.2 percent.
HSBC Holdings Plc rose 1.9 percent. Europe’s biggest bank was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said provisions and losses at HSBC may decline.
Home Depot, the largest home-improvement retailer, rose 2.7 percent in German trading after reporting second-quarter profit that fell less than analysts estimated and increasing its full- year earnings forecast.
Copper for delivery in three months rose 0.3 percent to $6,065 a metric ton on the LME, paring an earlier advance of as much as 3.3 percent. The average U.S. home contains 440 pounds (0.2 ton) of copper, according to the Copper Development Association.
Stocks and commodities tumbled yesterday after foreign direct investment in China fell and Japan’s economy grew less than economists estimated, reigniting concern the rally was overdone.
Economic Confidence
Confidence in the world economy surged to a 22-month high in August on signs the first global recession since World War II is approaching an end, a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents showed last week. The U.S. unemployment rate dropped in July for the first time since April 2008, data from the Labor Department showed this month, while the German and French economies unexpectedly grew last quarter, government figures indicated last week.
Emerging-market stocks rose from a four-week low and bonds snapped a six-day losing streak.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.4 percent to 823.14 after dropping the most in 5 1/2 months yesterday.
Bond rose, pushing the extra yield investors demand to own developing nations’ debt instead of U.S. Treasuries down 3 basis points to a 3.81 percentage points., according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index. The decline snaps six days of increases, the longest streak since November.
Composite Index
China’s Shanghai Composite Index increased 1.4 percent, the most two weeks, and Poland’s WIG20 benchmark added as much as 1.3 percent to a three-day high after the country’s equities were raised to “overweight” from “equal-weight” by Morgan Stanley.
Treasuries declined, sending the yield on the benchmark 10- year note up 2 basis points to 3.49 percent. The 30-year yield increased 1 basis point to 4.34 percent.
The yen dropped most against the South African rand, weakening 1.4 percent, and fell 0.3 percent against the euro, amid revived demand for higher-yielding currencies.
To contact the reporter on this story: Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 18, 2009 09:20 EDT
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German Investor Confidence Rose to Highest Since 2006 (Update2)
By Frances Robinson
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- German investor confidence jumped to its highest level in more than three years in August after government stimulus and rising exports pulled Europe’s largest economy out of recession.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to 56.1 from 39.5 in July. Economists predicted a gain to 45, according to the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. That’s the highest since April 2006. The survey aims to predict economic developments six months in advance.
Germany’s economy expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter, a report showed last week, bringing an end to the worst slump since World War II sooner than forecasters had expected. While rising exports and government programs may keep growth on track, higher unemployment threatens to restrain the recovery.
“The German economy is out of recession, but not out of the woods,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. “In all the enthusiasm about the recent numbers and the near-term outlook, there are still some impediments to a real recovery, the most pressing one being the worsening labor market.”
The euro rose as much as 0.2 percent after the ZEW figures, climbing as high as $1.4154. It traded at $1.4119 at 12.25 p.m. in Frankfurt.
GDP Boost
ZEW’s gauge of the current economic situation rose to minus 77.2 from minus 89.3 in July, an improvement that the Mannheim, Germany-based institute said was helped by last week’s GDP figures. A survey of 19 economists expected a reading of minus 85. The Economy Ministry has said its forecast for a 6 percent economic contraction this year may now be too pessimistic.
“The recent GDP development shows that the previous expectations of the financial-market experts have come true,” said Wolfgang Franz, president of the ZEW. “There is, however, no reason for euphoria. The German economy develops parallel to the world economy and should, hence, recover only gradually.”
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who faces national elections next month, is spending about 85 billion euros ($120 billion) in an effort to rekindle growth, including a 2,500-euro payment for consumers who scrap their old car and buy a new one. New vehicle registrations in Germany rose 22.8 percent in the first five months of the year from the same period in 2008, the statistics office said yesterday.
Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, this month forecast a 5 percent decline in 2009 sales, half the drop it had previously anticipated.
Stock Rally
“In recent weeks there have been positive developments in equity markets, and signs global trade is improving, which helps Germany,” said Joerg Lueschow, an economist at WestLB in Dusseldorf, Germany. The country’s benchmark DAX share index has advanced 43 percent since March 6.
A record 83 percent of Germans predicted Merkel will serve a second four-year term after elections on Sept. 27, according to an Emnid poll published by Bild am Sonntag on Aug. 16. That compares with 9 percent of respondents who opted for Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the newspaper said.
Foreign demand for German goods is picking up as the global economy improves. Japan’s economy emerged from recession in the second quarter as well, expanding an annual 3.7 percent, and German exports jumped 7 percent in June from May, the most in nearly three years.
Global Economy
All 13 of the industry subindexes tracked by ZEW, which range from banking to telecommunications, rose in August, according to today’s report.
“Sentiment is improving in the most export-centric sectors, like electronics, technology and machinery, which is significant as Germany is so export-dependent,” Andreas Rees, said an economist at Unicredit in Munich.
Exports will grow about 4 percent in 2010 after slumping 17 percent in 2009, the DIHK trade association said earlier today, citing a survey of German companies operating in more than 80 countries.
Unemployment Risk
Still, with unemployment at the highest since 2007, there’s a risk the recovery will falter when stimulus programs expire. Germany’s “cash-for-clunkers” subsidy is due to run out at the end of the year, as is a similar program in neighboring France.
The number of people out of work increased 52,000 to 3.46 million on an unadjusted basis, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said July 30.
The stronger euro could also hurt exports as it makes German goods more expensive abroad. Europe’s single currency has gained 13 percent against the dollar since February.
“The economy will weaken again in 2010, as we’re expecting a ‘W’ shaped recession,” Jean-Christophe Caffet, an economist at Natixis in Paris said. “Before things stabilize there will be another correction, although the second dip of the ‘W’ might not be as deep as the first.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Frances Robinson in Frankfurt at frobinson6@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 18, 2009 06:28 EDT
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DOW Futures is up 51 now
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Vol is fast catching up with yesterday's vol
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:48) Posted:
No prize for guessing right, since I dun exit, I m a buyer just now, bot at 0.83 but will exit if it hit my stop-loss below 0.835 on closing for 2 continuous days.
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:44) Posted:
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Midas is now doing a bounce up from the 25ema just like the candle on 16/6/09 and even better than it.
Thus why I always emphasise the reason why I always based on EOD data to avoid intraday fake-out, but of course, it is still anybody's guess as it might close and break below the 25ema, but even if it does, it may still be a fake breakdown, thus why I also always only exit if it hit below my exit point for 2 continuous days. |
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With 2 more hours to go, vol will definitely exceed yesterday's vol, now almost on par aredi
richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:56) Posted:
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Trade Summary shows more buy-ups:
| WEIGHTED AVG PRICE : 0.5762 |
LAST DONE PRICE : 0.585 |
| SPREAD/PRICE RATIO : 0.0085 |
AVG TRADE SIZE : 54.151 |
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richtan ( Date: 18-Aug-2009 14:55) Posted:
| I m a buyer just now, bot at 0.57 but will exit if it hit my stop-loss below 0.565 on closing for 2 continuous days. |
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| Index |
Last |
Change |
% |
High |
Low |
Time |
| STI |
2567.68 |
21.70 |
0.85% |
2570.59 |
2532.72 |
15:05:30 |
| Hangseng |
20405.84 |
268.77 |
1.33% |
20409.19 |
19916.28 |
15:05:32 |
| Nikkei225 |
10284.96 |
16.35 |
0.16% |
10325.06 |
10181.10 |
15:00:43 |
| SSE |
2910.88 |
40.25 |
1.4% |
2920.64 |
2827.11 |
15:00:26 |
| KLCI |
1163.28 |
-5.77 |
-0.49% |
1169.05 |
1156.19 |
15:05:31 |
| SET |
630.30 |
-1.75 |
-0.28% |
633.64 |
625.83 |
12:30:11 |
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