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wongmx6
Veteran |
21-Aug-2009 11:06
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Hi Sharejunky, When was the date for this article begin posted by Reuters.
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ShareJunky
Member |
21-Aug-2009 08:17
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REUTERS
Large U.S. bank collapse ahead, says ex-IMF economist
Tue Aug 19, 2008 5:59pm EDT
By Jan Dahinten
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The worst of the global financial crisis is yet to come and a large U.S. bank will fail in the next few months as the world's biggest economy hits further troubles, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.
"The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say 'the worst is to come'," he told a financial conference.
"We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," said Rogoff, who is an economics professor at Harvard University and was the International Monetary Fund's chief economist from 2001 to 2004.
"We have to see more consolidation in the financial sector before this is over," he said, when asked for early signs of an end to the crisis.
"Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said -- these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present form in a few years."
Rogoff's comments come as investors dumped shares of the largest U.S. home funding companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday after a newspaper report said government officials may have no choice but to effectively nationalize the U.S. housing finance titans.
A government move to recapitalize the two companies by injecting funds could wipe out existing common stock holders, the weekend Barron's story said. Preferred shareholders and even holders of the two government-sponsored entities' $19 billion of subordinated debt would also suffer losses.
Rogoff said multi-billion dollar investments by sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East in western financial firms may not necessarily result in large profits because they had not taken into account the broader market conditions that the industry faces.
"There was this view early on in the crisis that sovereign wealth funds could save everybody. Investment banks did something stupid, they lost money in the sub-prime, they're great buys, sovereign wealth funds come in and make a lot of money by buying them.
"That view neglects the point that the financial system has become very bloated in size and needed to shrink," Rogoff told the conference in Singapore, whose wealth funds GIC and Temasek have invested billions in Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
In response to the sharp U.S. housing retrenchment and turmoil in credit markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a cumulative 3.25 percentage points to 2 percent since mid-September.
Rogoff said the U.S. Federal Reserve was wrong to cut interest rates as "dramatically" as it did.
"Cutting interest rates is going to lead to a lot of inflation in the next few years in the United States."
(Editing by Neil Chatterjee)
© Thomson Reuters 2008. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.
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Blastoff
Elite |
21-Aug-2009 08:00
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Stocks stage advanceInvestors welcome signs of optimism in the day's economic news, with bank and tech issues leading the way.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, with financial and technology shares spearheading the advance as a report showing surprise growth in the manufacturing sector and gains in overseas markets propelled Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 71 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 11 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 20 points, or 1%. A worse-than-expected jobless claims report unnerved investors in the early going, but the surprise rise in manufacturing reversed any losses, giving the market support for the rest of the session. Financial shares were buoyant, with the KBW Bank (BKX) index gaining 2.9%. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were among the stocks boosting the index. AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) rallied 21% after the insurer's new CEO said he expects the company to pay back the billions in loans it has taken to stay afloat. Stocks managed to advance Wednesday, in the middle of a choppy week on Wall Street. After topping out at fresh 2009 highs last week, investors have struggled to push stocks higher this week. Between the March 9 lows and last week, the S&P 500 rallied 50%. But bets that the economy is stabilizing have been undercut lately by worries about the jobs market and its impact on the already hard-hit consumer. "A lot of what we've seen over the last five or six weeks has been the result of investor anxiety about not having jumped in ahead of the upturn," said Tom Hepner, vice president and financial advisor for Ruggie Wealth Management. "But I think the market, on an S&P 500 earnings basis, is ahead of itself." He said that absent a big rise in revenue growth in the second half of the year --which doesn't seem to be brewing -- the market is wildly overvalued relative to corporate profit forecasts. Stocks are likely to "crab sideways" over the next few weeks, before suffering a setback in the fall, he said. Friday brings reports on July existing home sales and July state-by-state employment. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Kansas City Fed's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., starting at 10 a.m. ET. His talk is expected to be about the past year in crisis for the financial markets. Economy: The day brought a mix of economic news, including reports on manufacturing and the labor market. The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing, climbed to plus 4.2 in August from negative 7.5 in July. Economists expected it to improve to negative 2. Any reading that is positive implies expansion in the sector. Also on the upside, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 0.6% in July after rising a revised 0.8% in June. LEI was expected to have risen 0.7%. But the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose last week versus forecasts for a drop. The Department of Labor reported 576,000 new claims last week from a revised 561,000 in the previous week. Forecasts were for claims to drop to 550,000, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists. A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association said 13% of Americans are either late on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, a record-high number. World markets: Asian markets rebounded Thursday, reassuring investors after a plunge in China's main market Wednesday. The Chinese market has lost about 20% over the last two weeks, raising worries about China's economy. China is a big buyer of American and European products. European markets rallied. Oil: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 89 cents to settle at $72.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising nearly 5% Wednesday. Bonds: Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.42% from 3.45% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery fell $2.10 to settle at $942.70 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen. Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 1.05 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five on 2 billion shares. |
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dealer0168
Elite |
19-Aug-2009 11:20
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No strength, back to square
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dealer0168
Elite |
19-Aug-2009 10:37
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Recovery on the way..........
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dealer0168
Elite |
19-Aug-2009 09:29
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If Hang Seng Index up later, STI will follow also. Hope it up..... Cheers. |
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el7888
Veteran |
19-Aug-2009 09:25
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Global economic recovery has started, says IMF chief economist
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ronleech
Master |
19-Aug-2009 08:11
Yells: "Believe in yourself. Ride with the waves......" |
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Quite true!!! I noticed, when they ask you to sell, the counter likely will go up further. On the other hand, when they asked you to buy, becareful.
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Blastoff
Elite |
19-Aug-2009 07:07
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Stocks bounce on consumer hopesWall Street rises after two down sessions thanks to Home Depot and Target earnings, but concerns about consumer spending remain.After the close, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported lower quarterly sales and earnings that topped analysts estimates. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 82 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 10 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 25 points, or 1.3%. Stocks slipped for two straight sessions, with the major gauges each losing over 3% on worries that a struggling consumer could pressure an already fragile recovery. But Tuesday brought some better news from the retail sector and investors used it as an opportunity to move back into the market, albeit on light trading volume. "There's going to be a lot of volatility day-to-day as we try to figure out how much economic growth we're going to have," said Robert McGee, portfolio manager at CS McKee. A weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment report Friday and Lowe's disappointing profit report Monday sparked the selling, which followed a roughly five-month advance. But Tuesday brought better profit news from Dow component Home Depot and discount retailer Target, helping to mitigate some consumer worries. On the downside, the morning's housing market report missed growth forecasts but investors sought out some good news when it came to single-home construction. The S&P 500 is 46% higher since bottoming March 9. Year-to-date, it's just up 9.6% as of Tuesday's close. "I think the rally is a little ahead of what the economy and fundamentals are indicating," McGee said. "We're probably near the highs of the year and could see some give back through the fall." Wednesday brings no market-moving quarterly results or economic news. The weekly oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is due in the mid-morning. Retail: Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 66 cents per share, versus 77 cents a year ago, as the recession cut into its business. But results were better than expected and the home improvement retailer boosted its full-year earnings outlook. Shares of the Dow component gained 3% Tuesday. Target (TGT, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 79 cents per share versus 82 cents a year earlier, topping expectations, due to cost cutting and reduced inventories. But revenue and same-store sales slipped, as consumers remained cautious. Shares gained 7.6%. Economy: Housing starts and building permits both slipped in July, according to a Commerce Department report released Tuesday. The report surprised Wall Street economists who were looking for an improvement. Housing starts fell to a 581,000 annualized rate in July from a revised 587,000 in June. Economists thought starts would rise to 599,000, according to a Briefing.com survey. Building permits, which indicate builder confidence, fell to a 560,000 annualized rate in July from a revised 570,000 annualized rate in June. Economists thought it would rise to a 576,000 annualized rate. On the upside, the report showed that single-family housing construction rose 1.7% in July, advancing for the fifth straight month and at the fastest pace since October. A separate report showed that inflation at the wholesale level remains in check. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.9% in July after rising 1.8% in June. Economists thought it would fall to 0.3%. The core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.1% in July versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. General Motors: The automaker is boosting production in the second half of the year and bringing 1,350 of its North American employees back to work as a result of increased demand from the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Separately, GM (GM, Fortune 500) said it made a deal to sell its money-losing Saab to Swedish luxury sports car maker Koenigsegg. Other stock movers: Huron Consulting Group (HURN) rallied 37.6% in unusually active Nasdaq trading after the business consultant reported higher quarterly revenue and earnings that topped estimates. American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) rallied 117% in unusually active New York Stock Exchange trading after saying it will get up to $210 million in help from former parent GM. The auto parts manufacturer is trying to restructure its debt outside of bankruptcy court. Market breadth was positive and trading volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by almost four to one on volume of 991 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners three to one on volume of 1.77 billion shares. Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.51% from 3.47% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Other markets: In global trading, European and Asian markets climbed. U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.44 to settle at $69.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $939.20 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 23:06
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no doubt , sti is over 80% and dow 50%..but if there are liquidity...then this market can go bonker..(Greenspan call it irrational exurberence) did i spell the word wrongly? ppl always say and i also always think a correction was on the card since july...also but somehow it correction is a day or two affair and then it is up again... so, what can i do?..just make more $$$ also lah...simple..hahahaha..go with the flow..why worry this and that...now i am lighter with just 4 stock .can run faster... but i hope this it is...the beginning of the new bull market, ...sti 5000...dow 20000... it is not a dream...we will be there... |
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smartrader
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 23:05
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actually, i laughed as she merely regurgitated what were previously reported in the news.. some slow counters have not even move 20% up... I remembers selling down singtel at 3.74 last year.. | |||||||||||||
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richtan
Supreme |
18-Aug-2009 22:58
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Better dyodd, just listen and monitor for yourself whether are they chun, dun follow blindly, they are not GOD, dun wait kena played to holland by all these anal-ist.
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smartrader
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 22:44
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A lady analyst on CNA just now suggested to wait for 20% correction before getting in. Hope it comes true ...then you can stay on sideline for a long time.. if you can let go a long term stock after riding the wave up till now, then I guess you are not strong in your belief in the long term prospect. --- looing at 200-1000% gain for a long term stock (depending on the entry price). Index up and now has no impact on my portfolio unless i want to time market to make that few points. |
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cheongwee
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 22:17
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you are right, better be safe....yesterday is nothing.compare to what we see in 2007 and 2008.. we may see something worse than this...hope not...
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tanzq83
Member |
18-Aug-2009 21:56
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Seems that the market will be undergoing volatile corrections in the short-mid term (of 7days-5weeks), DJI likely to correct around 5~8% to around 8500~8850pts region in short-term before heading towards the 9500pts mark. As volatile as it may be, it is important to be discipline and buy and hold within your limits. China will be likely to head for a correction to around 2650pts region in the next 3-4weeks (mid-term). Something interesting to see from China will be how the investors will react to the IPOs during the coming September ~ the turnout for today's IPO-Everbright securities had not fulfilled the expectations (many expects its close to be higher than >30% of its IPO price). Should interest wanes off, SSE will likely be testing the 2400~2570pts (50% fibonaci retrenchment from peak 3480pts on August 4) and this will probably trigger another round of selling from the global markets. On the current technical analysis, momentum and MACD is now indicating bearish trends vs RSI and Stochastic (both indicating underbrought) for SSE ~ this may signal a minor rebound in short-term before another correction during september. Buy and hold at your own risk. Be safe, folks.
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aleoleo
Master |
18-Aug-2009 21:20
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* Home Depot Q2 profit tops expectation, outlook raised * Housing starts, permits fall unexpectedly in July * Target profit tops consensus, boosting shares * Futures up: Dow 25 pts, S&P 500 2.3 pts, Nasdaq 6.75 pts * For up-to-the-minute market news click [STXNEWS/US] (Updates with housing data) By Edward Krudy NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes pointed to a flat to slightly higher open on Tuesday after a surprise drop in housing starts offset better-than-expected results from retailers Home Depot Inc (HD.N) and Target Corp (TGT.N) . New U.S. housing starts and permits unexpectedly fell in July, pulled down by steeper declines in multifamily units, a government report showed on Tuesday. For details, see[ID:nN17348766] But better-than-expected quarterly results for the two important retailers were enough to keep futures afloat. Shares in Home Depot, the largest U.S. home improvement chain, rose 3.4 percent to $26.95 in premarket trades as it beat estimates and raised its outlook, while shares in the No.2 U.S. retailer, Target, rose 5.3 percent to $43.40 as its profit came in better than Wall Street's consensus forecast. [ID:nBNG461582] and [ID:nN14300199] "I believe equities are in correction and will remain that way," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto. "The market will focus on retail sales and consumer company earnings rather than economic data." S&P 500 futures SPc1 rose 2.3 points, and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures DJc1 rose 25 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures NDc1 added 6.75 points. |
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smartrader
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 21:20
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heard so many people regretting selling their shares yesterday and rebounded today...some said they hold it for how many months etc... it is easy to sell but it is difficult to buy... | |||||||||||||
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ShareJunky
Member |
18-Aug-2009 21:01
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WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction of new U.S. homes dipped slightly last month, missing expectations, in a sign that the building industry's recovery from the housing bust is likely to be bumpy and gradual. The Commerce Department says construction of new homes and apartments fell 1 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 units, from an upwardly revised rate of 587,000 in June. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected a pace of 600,000 units. While construction of single-family homes rose 1 percent, multifamily properties slid by more than 13 percent. Applications for building permits, an indicator of future activity, fell 1.8 percent to an annual rate of 560,000 units. Economists expected an annual rate of 580,000 units. |
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Blastoff
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 20:24
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Stocks ready to reboundInvestors await housing and inflation reports a day after selloff on consumer concerns.NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised for early gains Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to reports on the housing market and inflation. At 7:04 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average, Nasdaq 100 and Standard & Poor's 500 futures were higher. Futures measure current index values against their perceived future performance and offer an indication of how markets may open when trading begins. Wall Street kicked off the week on a rough note Monday, with the major gauges losing about 2%. Stocks fell on concerns that the global economy would take longer to recover than previously anticipated. The roughly five-month rally, fueled by signs that the economy is stabilizing, slowed down last week and hit a roadblock on Friday after a worse-than-expected consumer sentiment report. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Avalon Partners, said the biggest market-mover on Tuesday will be the government report on housing starts. "Housing is what sunk the economy, housing is what sunk the consumer, housing is the root of the problem," said Cardillo. "Any signs of stabilization that we finally hit bottom serves as a lift to the consumer." Economy: Investors will get the latest reading on the housing sector at 8:30 a.m. ET, with a reading on housing starts and building permits. For July, an annual rate of 598,000 was expected for housing starts, according to a consensus of economist opinion from Briefing.com, compared to 582,000 the prior month. For building permits, an annual rate of 576,000 was forecast for July, compared to 570,000 the prior month. Also due out is a report on prices at the wholesale level. The Price Producer Index was expected to fall 0.3% in July, according to the Briefing.com consensus, compared to a gain of 1.8% in June. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was expected to edge up 0.1%, compared to a gain of 0.5% the prior month. Earnings: Home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) reported fiscal second-quarter net earnings of $1.1 billion, or 66 cents per diluted share, down from $1.2 billion or 71 cents per diluted share in the year-ago quarter. Chief executive Frank Blake said, in a press release, that consumers were pressured by "concerns about the housing market, rising unemployment and softness in the overall economy." Nonetheless, Home Depot's earnings beat the 59 cents per share that was expected by Wall Street, according to a consensus of analyst opinion from Thomson Reuters. On Monday, rival Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) reported a 19% drop in quarterly profit and said it was trimming its store expansion in North America. Retailers Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and TJX (TJX, Fortune 500) also are due to post results. Companies: GM reached a deal to sell its money-losing Saab unit to Swedish luxury sports car maker Koenigsegg. World markets: Stocks around the world were in recovery mode, although gains were modest. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei edged higher. Major markets in Europe gained slightly in morning trading. Money and oil: The dollar slipped versus major international currencies, including the euro, the yen and the British pound. The price of oil jumped $1.03 per barrel to $67.78. |
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Blastoff
Elite |
18-Aug-2009 08:16
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Stocks tumble on consumer fearsWall Street retreats as worries about the economy cause investors to bail out, after lifting stocks by 50% in five months.The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or 2%, after having lost as much as 204 points earlier. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 24 points, or 2.4%. Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at 3-week lows. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 55 points, or 2.8%, ending at a one-month low. A roughly five-month rally hit a roadblock last week after a worse-than-expected consumer sentiment report Friday. Signs that the economy is stabilizing -- combined with extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus -- have more or less lifted stocks since March, with the S&P 500 gaining 50%. In the last month alone, the S&P 500 gained 15%. After such a run, a pullback was predictable, but it's unlikely to signal a bigger retreat, said Stephen Goldman, market strategist at Weeden & Co. "You have a market that's seen most sectors and stocks rise in tandem and and so we should see a pretty orderly pullback," Goldman said. "We're still only down 2% or 3% from the highs." As of last Thursday, the Dow was at a nine-month high and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were at 10-month highs. Goldman said he sees a continued advance through the fall. But he said the difference is that from now on, it's going to be a lot more choppy, with investors having already anticipated a lot of the economic improvement. The CBOE Volatility (VIX) index, also known as the Vix, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, spiked 15%, signaling a bigger stock pullback could be brewing. "People are worried we've run too far, too fast and that we still have a long way to go in terms of the economy," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "There are concerns about a double-dip recession." Consumer issues: Meanwhile, concerns about consumers could limit the pace of the economic recovery. While the housing and manufacturing sectors have started to stabilize, a weak labor market and higher oil and gas prices have kept consumers on the sidelines. With consumer spending fueling roughly two-thirds of economic growth, participation is necessary for a bigger economic recovery to take hold. Underscoring the weakness in consumer spending, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) on Monday reported a worse-than-expected drop in second-quarter profit. Lowe's also issued a second-half outlook that is short of analysts' estimates. Shares plunged 10.3% and dragged on other retailers. Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) and other retailers are due to report results later in the week. Stock declines Monday were broad-based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks sliding, led by IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500). Overseas markets slip: U.S. investors also reacted to a plunge in global stock markets. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index plunged 3.1% after a report showed the economy emerged from recession in the second quarter, but analysts said that the outlook was choppy. China's main index slumped almost 6% on worries about a stock market bubble. In Europe, major markets all fell around 2%. Manufacturing: The hard-hit sector continues to show signs of improvement. On Monday, the Empire State Manufacturing survey, a measure of activity in the New York area, rose to 12.1 in August versus a reading of negative 0.6 in July, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any reading that is positive shows expansion in the sector. The week brings a slew of economic news. On Tuesday, the government reports on July housing starts and building permits, and July producer prices, a measure of wholesale inflation. Later in the week, reports are due on leading economic indicators, jobless claims, state-by-state unemployment and existing home sales. Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.56% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Other markets: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 76 cents to settle at $66.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $12.90 to settle at $935.80 an ounce. In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the Japanese yen. Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by eight to one on volume of 1.22 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by nearly five to one on volume of 1.94 billion shares. |
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