Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 17-Oct-2008 16:47 |
Keppel
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keppel Corp
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sigh. still too many small fries buying. c'mon peeps, look at the data. why is everyone rushing to buy when big lots are dumping even at 495, 493. there's news on this baby that's not out yet on the market. shd note too that the actual support once the 520s was breached is the 385-410 level. ie, you have far to fall from this pt if you choose to buy now. they're putting false buys and selling down. won't be surprise to see the 490 by end of day bell. |
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| 17-Oct-2008 15:51 |
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Bailing out Lehman Minibond holders
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huh. i wouldn't call it brains. i call it following the herd. they have no choice. because HK is our greatest competitor. HK had moved to guarantee deposits, so if s'pore doesn't do so, we risk an outflow of wealth from the wealthy to HK banks instead. ie, it's nothing to do with protecting singaporeans. it's to do with protecting foreign money here. DBS paid out in HK because their city councillors stood behind the people. But for singaporeans, just ask your constituency MPs. The usual refrain, is of course, "Let's close ranks and move on." Moral of the story: It's more worthwhile to be a PR or expat in singapore than a local. Heck, even SQ tickets are cheaper for foreigners than singaporeans. |
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| 17-Oct-2008 15:46 |
Keppel
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keppel Corp
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eh. too many small fries rushing into kepcorp now; stay out. large lots aren't done throwing yet, even at 502. the good thing tho is buyer support at 5. be careful if it breaks below this, because the queues below 5 are very thin. fyi only. |
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| 15-Oct-2008 16:30 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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HLJ: no, i meant first resistance at 3.26. if it could have cleared the gap, then 3.65-4.75 was the next resistance. as per earlier post: if it can't do so (ie, if it cannot close beyond 326), it can be taken as a bearish sign. the px movement today proved it alr. ok, i need to sleep. byes, ppl. 
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| 14-Oct-2008 13:20 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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haha. capland has always been a trader's counter, so ppl in this counter shdn't be too surprised by large intraday movements. just for the very shortterm: There was a gap between 306-326 previously, so what capland is/was trying to do, is to recover this gap. if it can't do so (ie, if it cannot close beyond 326), it can be taken as a bearish sign. If it can recover the gap however, the next resistance is 365-375. strictly speaking, the buy signal was generated yest when the low touched 251 and pinged off. short-sellers etc. Both ways. It's final orders. the matching at 1705 hrs is done by the exchange (believe it's automated), the remainder lots from shortists who didn't cover during the day and those large firms that can afford to throw. It's then matched between seller and buyer, so the final px may be very different from the closing bell. it gives you an idea of how much 'underhand' activities is going on in the counter. why capland is pinging up so fast: because a lot of shortists are scrambling to cover. haha.
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| 13-Oct-2008 16:25 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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well, i guess this is a bit after the fact, but the px probably revealed the answers. yes, 2.64 remains the support. so the entry today was at the low of 266 where it pinged off (rem what i said that support levels are only a rough guide, the price-vol action determines the exact buy/sell). a 2nd buy signal generated at 278. so rationally a good run for singtel today is to abt 2.97. psych resistance would be 3. so if 3 is broken you can lk to 305. if not, the close likely 297 or so. (note: all the above is for day trade only). personally i don't quite like this counter. haha. |
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| 10-Oct-2008 17:31 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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"long way to go". hehe, i expect that long way to be a short time. lol. everyday STI falls 100+ points, we easily hit 1800 by next week. just in case ppl are buying upon reading what i wrote: global funds still liquidating; no buying yet. But as investors, what you do need to do: look forward. Right now, when everyone's rushing for the exit, you need to sit down, adn seriously id what can do well in 2010-2012. So that when the time comes to buy (whenever it may be), you aren't caught in a tizzy and are NOT chasing stocks just because of "analysts' recommendations". rationally, it's still the same thing: between unwarranted optimism, and unwarranted pessimism, which are we closer to? The bottom will come when it comes. Meanwhile, there are scalps for the discerning; for longterm investors, you need to judge clearly. and lol. singtel closed at the exact level i called, 277. haha. you'll know market capitualtiobn when the G7 announces a whole host of initiatives, and market still falls. loushare, leong sze han would be a good speaker. those who are invovled, would be good to attend. if you're unhappy, after all, why sit back and grumble? singaporeans need to be more proactive. make yourselves be heard. cheers! |
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| 10-Oct-2008 13:44 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/10/market-capitulation.html --something for people to consider. hullo ace, i don't like singtel personally cos it's one of the counters used to control the STI. so very rapid fluctuations. quick scalp:personally, ithink that the risk/reward not worth at this point (i assume you mean intraday/overnight). ocbc if you can get at 610-612 to run to 640, stop loss 599. 620's now not worth a scalp: they've lidded this counter at 645 with with 502 lots currently. singtel: 277 likely cap for today. if 270 breaks, realistically, say hello to the 230s support zone. fyi only. above is strictly the rapid data only. i seriously don't think a scalp is worth now. caveat applies. longer term, let them find their own support first. |
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| 10-Oct-2008 12:31 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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ha. i put the fault of this fall solely on the americans. if they hadn't overleveraged, they wouldn't be forced to fire-house sale asian assets. and if the dang bailout had passed the first time, you can be sure the mood would be something different today. american stupidity, indeed. a good wake-up call, though. for those who think markets keep chionging up. and how FA is important in such times. because in the next years, what will be left standing, but companies with solid book value? all the ramps on speculative counters (that have absolutely no fundamental value) done by the BBs will likely stay dead til the next bull run. which, by cycles, should be about 7 years away. GDP at 3% is an overestimate, actually. remember i was discussing with a friend a couple of months ago. we had calculated it to be around 2.5%, top-end estimate. |
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| 08-Oct-2008 00:09 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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edit: oh, and sometimes, esp for smaller companies, it's a board struggle: they may be forcing out the other person by shelling their own stock, to the point that the unwanted shareholder has to sell. so always be careful if you're vesting in something which two or more parties are fighting for control in. Men with egos are dangerous creatures. 
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| 08-Oct-2008 00:05 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yups livermore. get the basics right, the rest will come later. am always very wary of those who come in with a small amount, want to take shortcuts, and expect to be able to fly. there are no shortcuts in the market. it's really a longterm commitment to patience, discipline and consistency. separately: saw on another thread about margin calls and sudden tankings. Essentially, especially in bearish conditions: if a stock has faced drastic selldown in the days prior, key shareholders that are leveraged on margin may face margin calls--ie, their margin % falls below the 130% level. When that happens, forced-selling is effected by the brokerages (assuming you can't raise cash/stocks to fill up the margin requirement). ie, they sell your stock to whatever buyer there is. In bearish conditions, the buy queue tends to be thin (reference kepcorp notably, and sembcorp yesterday). When this is coupled with key shareholders having to sell their stock (a large quantity), what you get is the scenario of a vicious cycle: Stock is down. Margin calls ensue. Stock is sold down; large lots are force-sold. Further margin calls (for other players) occur. Stock is sold down further, buyers get scared and disappear. It's all made worse when shortists enter the picture, and when even people who are not on margin panick and sell. Kinda like a death spiral. So a veritable stock meltdown occurs. All this can occur in a single day. That's why you can see your stock suddenly plunging 40+ cents in a few hours, or less. (as kepcorp did). |
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| 07-Oct-2008 23:56 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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hands off on capland. selling is too consistently severe to just be margin call. check in again ard the 220s region. no bottom => no buying. | ||
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| 07-Oct-2008 23:54 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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1st Q? i was thinking sooner. >~< this market's no fun; the risk/reward doesn't make a lot worth playing.
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| 04-Oct-2008 15:55 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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final request from a forumer via PM: capland: supports at 3 now (its psych support), then 270-280, which is technically weak but fundamentally strong; a stronger tech support is 200-220s. kepcorp: ah. i remember back in jan/feb when i had told an ex-colleague to sell it off at 11. Downtrend not ended. broke critical support with friday's fall. Next supports at 650-680 and then at 525-560. of the two, capland is stronger fundamentally. -------- yea juzztrade, cashiertan chose the right route. that's why i'm going to limit my time here too. doesn't make sense; i'm giving up thousands each week just to post here. and that's just the cost from rapids on stocks alone. it ain't even like i'm getting paid to be here. if ppl are learning, well and good. what's worse is when you have those who throw insults and cast aspersions your way. or those who only want tips but are too lazy to learn how to invest properly. Penny-wise, pound-foolish. ppl who only breed negative emotions in you. Bad for a trader. As cashiertan had wisely concluded, don't waste time on forums. will still be keeping my blog tho. It serves as a trading journal for me. anyhow, for the interested: http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/10/learning-to-fish.html cheers, folks. elfie's off to make some serious money.  |
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| 04-Oct-2008 14:42 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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thanks trader88. good post. :) what i was fearing came to pass though. was right in my blog about a change in market sentiment. sian. cos if bailout had been passed the first time around, STI would have bottomed. but now that they didn't--second time is no good, because they've wrecked investors' confidence already--the macro sentiment has changed. 1,800 becomes a distinct possibility, thanks to american stupidity. three things to note: 1) Watch price-volume action. it will tell you when bottoming is. 2) Expect to see differentiation between counters now. as per my blog post yesterday. 3) Rapid scalpers will have plenty of chances to make pocket money. o/w, i'm off SJ for a while. cashiertan took the smart route. i need to focus on trading and not just helping people at my own expense. haha. cheers! |
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| 04-Oct-2008 14:33 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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yea, singaporegal. and hehe. can the longterm ppl here now understand why, each time you guys ask, is it time to buy, i kept saying no, since july? meanwhile, rapid scalps are always available tho. timeframes. it's very impt. |
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| 03-Oct-2008 13:24 |
Golden Agri-Res
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Time Bomb - Avoid
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ccktsp: because there is a difference between the worth of a company--which is given by its own business--and the price of its stock--which is given by market sentiments. 43c is the fundamental value of the company. It may not necessarily be the price which the market 'values' it at. It's for this reason that i prefer technical analysis: TA essentially tracks sentiment; so it gives a more accurate picture of what is going on. Where fundamentals become important is during a period like this: because what will investors pick up in preparation for a recovery? GAr is a growth stock, btw. Growth stocks have common characteristics, chart patterns and FA patterns: i'd encourage you to take a look at its AR, especially, at its borrowings and debt securities, and total liabilities. You will find your answer there, as to why value investors will not put their money here. as for talk about profitable companies coming down in bear markets etcetc: the difference is that a profitable company, even if it goes down, will find resilience at a certain point. whereas others (which were falsely ramped up during the bull years), will be relegated to penny counters. that is the fate of speculatives with little/no inherent value. Don't believe me? Check out this eg of a real counter i posted on my blog last month. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/importance-of-backers.html --update: it is still holding a bottom at abt 50c, despite the STI falling from its 'low' of 3,050 in jan to now. And this, good folks, is hard evidence. Proof positive and undeniable. I can name you at least four other counters which have shown such resilience. in other words: Do not follow the talk; follow the walk. |
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| 02-Oct-2008 23:09 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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when do i think it's a good time..... when the charts say so. specifically: 1) finds a steady bottom whereby px below that is consistently rejected. 2) pings off this support at least twice. 3) pings off and goes higher on increasing buy vol. that's what you gotta look out for. o/w, as a rapid trading counter, capland's good. additionally, nd to be careful because at times, there is fight going on in this counter btwn different BBs. |
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| 02-Oct-2008 23:05 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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yeppers livermore. thanks for sharing too. quite cool having discussions with you, since at times, your viewpoints differ from mine (and you're always backed up with facts), which sends me sometimes to verify my analysis/news again. lol. so it's a good check-countercheck procedure, even if the conclusions in the end differ.
in case n00bs are confused: yes, it is possible that either of us are right/wrong, or that both are right, too: because it also depends on your own money mgmt rules, asset allocation, timeframe, and strategy. Mine and his differ (as accord to our indi styles); and i wouldn't say one is better than the other; it basically all depends on what we're each comfortable with. quantico, thanks for the tips! yea. especially with no 2 and no 3. Don't try to catch a falling knife. For me, i never like to predict bottoms: support lines are basically places where start to sit up (not necessarily take positions). for actual buy/sell, i let the price-volume action say where the real bottom is first. forex running now. cheers! |
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| 02-Oct-2008 13:59 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/business/economy/01leonhardt.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin excellent article and clear explanation of the credit crisis. |
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