Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 28-Feb-2009 13:41 |
Others
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Citigroup is back on right footing,5-10yr recovery
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sigh. the trouble is that you gotta buy low, and not buy a dead duck. anyhow, not that citizens have a say in the running of the country anyway, we're not elite enough. whahah. :P see how it plays out lor. no choice also. all i know is, be prepared for CPF retirement age to be raised, higher limits, and more taxes in future. the money's got to come from somewhere afterall. |
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| 28-Feb-2009 13:29 |
Others
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Citigroup is back on right footing,5-10yr recovery
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/02/there-are-fools-and-then-there-are.html I do not, personally, in any way, see how the conversion into common stock is a good thing. It'd have been infinitely preferable to me for GIC to write off the entire investment as a bad one, and start doing REAL investing. Into our s'pore companies. Instead of being taken for a sucker ride by the Americans, as with Merrill/Temasek in the past. |
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| 02-Feb-2009 14:41 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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nicky's right abt the stagflation prospect. ie, counters likely in horizontal trading band for the next 3-6 mths. everything on DJIA now: cos it's at 8000 and weakening. So no impetus for movement in local markets. capland is cos of its annoying rights issue--just blogged. can't stand the wishy-washiness. Whoever released the "rumor" had definite insights; since it was a very specific one that included the price, no: of lots, etc. And note that capland did not deny it either; they only said they were considering. UBS and JPM the main shortists for days already. Current NAV 3.81. Feb 10, we'll know the new NAV. Watch out for free cash flow figures. Going by their previous data, they don't actually need to raise cash; so my thinking is that they're planning some projects for the future. Perhaps to do with the Islamic fund thing; that seems to be the new expansion area. Wait to see figures first. o/w, it's zzzz til feb 10. don't waste time watching the screen. |
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| 28-Jan-2009 19:27 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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...no need to think so much. if capland can regain former px before feb 10, sell. if rights issue comes up, consider accordingly. meanwhile, suspend all judgment and watch. cheers! edit: and as a forumer mailed me, yea, i do find the rights issue price a bit odd too. |
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| 23-Jan-2009 19:21 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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hi freeme. :) CFD: same as margin accounts. when the announcement is made (damn it, was out whole day so i didn't know the formal announcement not out yet >~<, if i'd known i wouldn't have posted! ), your brokerage house should call you and ask you if you wish to suscribe for the rights or not. If you wish to suscribe: make sure you have sufficient cash in the account so that you don't kena margin call. if you don't wish to suscribe: same procedure. Wait for the letter to be sent to you; sell on open market at open. Pls cfm with your broker the no: of rights you have before you do anything though. If your broker doesn't call you, send an email or call your broker to clarify (since most are web-based accounts i think.), and give instructions there--to suscribe or not. My own preference is email: this way there's written record kept in case of any dispute. CYA principle applies. 
In the meantime, make sure there's sufficient balance in your margin to support 2.2 in a worst case scenario. The idiotic foreigners are really selling down this baby. From my broker, the support is pegged at the 52 week low of 2.28. hope this helps, cheers! PS: caveat applies as usual pls. |
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| 23-Jan-2009 18:18 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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happy CNY!
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| 23-Jan-2009 18:13 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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Haha. How come action happens when i'm not around to watch the screen. :P whoever who asked abt the sudden intraday surge from 237-243: a local house got killed on that. o/w, it was UBS shorting quite a big deal. A lot of small fish and local props joined in. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/capland-saga-continued.html rights calculations as attached. It's not a bad thing actually. I see it as a CNY angpow. hehe. ehhh, nickyng, be nice lehhhh..... Go short something else! lol. happy new year, all! :) |
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| 22-Jan-2009 17:13 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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whahah! good one, DnApeh! I fully agree. fyi n00bies to SJ: singaporegal is our very own SGH indicator: Singapore Gal Holiday indicator. everytime she goes on holiday, markets will take a nosedive.
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| 22-Jan-2009 17:10 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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hey, trader88! long time no see! 
yuppers, i'm on holiday as far as possible. i try to spend at least a month out of the country every year. 
yah. JPM. i was watching it, and cussing at them and admiring them all at the same time. 
max, the actual tech resistance is 326. 290-3 is a psych level for capland. right now, i'm only concerned that the BBs may know something we don't, that's why they're sinking it. It really doesn't make sense that most counters are beginning to go up, and even more, its counterpart citydev is up and this baby is not. 
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| 22-Jan-2009 16:54 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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edit: and with today's rollercoaster experience, i trust folks see the logic of a 2 strike policy for capland now.
btw, will be away for CNY, so no updates then. happy trading everyone! |
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| 22-Jan-2009 16:52 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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Amazing movement: i gave the BB name in my blog. They're one of the best in the biz, the other being GS. They operate this way usually: very sudden, very fast. Very cowboy. lol. Unlike others, who'll prep the ground for days, slow tanking, etcetc. Newbies/those interested, i really recommend you cut and paste today's BUSD movement and learn their pattern. Will likely be very useful in the future. Plus, so that you don't get psychologically scared into dumping when it's likely only a once-off operation for that day. (distinct from dumping because of fundamental/longterm reasons). Had warned on the 21st that they were likely to try and shake out the weak hands. "Likely to burn both shorts and contra longs; the BBs are squeezing the range": this is how they do it. max, i'm not sure if the sub 250s will appear again. But if it does, it'll be in the next 4-5 trading sessions. If it doesn't appear, you can reasonably assume that capland is on its way up. MFI, williams, everything way oversold already.
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| 22-Jan-2009 16:35 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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for those wondering wtf happened to capland just now. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/capland.html yah, tech support is ard 242-250s. |
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| 16-Jan-2009 11:31 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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...and i also think i talk too much. >~< k, capland isn't exactly doing anything out of its trend, so the next post i'll do here will be the sell call. meanwhile, the levels and strat quoted are still there for all to see. feel free to run when you want to tho; since as always, it's buy/sell at your own discretion and caveat applies. cheers! |
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| 16-Jan-2009 11:24 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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eh. yea. in case folks get starry-eyed about TA being the be-all and end-all. it's not so. TA is not about "I can predict the market!!!!" and "I am king!!!" *woot woot*. True techies are about probability. ie, we acknowledge that we can never be 100% accurate. But what can we do to shift the 50% odds into our favour? which trades are worthwhile taking? Each techie uses his/her own tools to analyse the market trends. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. Contrary to popular opinion, the aim is not big instant windfalls; the aim is consistent income over the years that allows one to survive lean and fat years. that's why most traders are low profile; not high profile. You want to take silently from the market and leave just as silently; and not blast about your successes everywhere. ...which is also why i'd never reveal a trade whilst it's running, or id local BBs while they are playing. The last thing you want is to draw undue attention. it's also up to each person to decide their own risk/reward appetite. where some may be satisfied with small gains; others may want big leaps. nothing's either right or wrong; just personality, and if you can live with your choices. TA is just the tool you use to get what you want.
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| 16-Jan-2009 11:15 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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is that your blog, j3rom3? and yuppers, that's DCA done the wrong way, sorry to say so. same reason why in my blog i stressed that it's emotional mgmt. in any case, gotta remember that 290-3 is not a tech support for capland, but a psych support. the 'real' tech supports (ie, stronger; tho stocks do bounce off psych supports) were always the 240-50, and 268-75 range. oink: this is less to do with actual trading, more with risk and money management (RM and MM resp)--which frankly, is more important than learning even TA. With proper RM/MM, even if your tech skills aren't the tops, you lessen your chances of loss. why i had said to shift buy px by 5%: look at the support ranges for capland, and its daily ave range. keep in mind its average daily range is usually 12-15c. a ramp can be defined as 20-25c in a day. as in my blog, the aim of DCA is to shift the buy px below the trading range, in case the stock has fallen below a new resistance (former support). ie, it is not always 5% that you need to shift the buy px by. to illustrate: mathematics as such: (i assume 2 lots for simplicity, 1 lot = 1 strike. pls shift figures accordingly if you're buying more) if you had bought at 3, keep reserve 2nd lot: to shift buy px by 5% => 3 x 0.95 = 2.85. => for two lots, total cost = 2.85 x 2 = 5.7. 1st buy @ 3 => 2nd buy strike @ 5.7 - 3 = 2.7 buy px for 2nd strike. which is exactly in the range of the tech support for capland. Sounds good. BUT, your ave buy px is 2.85, which capland can easily cover in one day back to 3 (refer the daily ave range for capland). Also, bouncing off 275 => the tech target is 326 at least. ie, risk-reward may not quite be worth it. In money mgmt rules, you do not put all into one basket, and you don't send good money after bad. (for the px of it, you may as well fork out a bit more and buy two lots of smm at <1.65 instead. haha.) Also: we should note that 3 isn't quite a tech support, ie the first buy at 3 is actually a mistake. so the real DCA, if one had bought at 3, is at the 2nd tech support, in order not to mess up money mgmt and risk mgmt rules: ie, 240-250s. ie, counting in the 'mistake buy' --> if we presume forward that capland does drop further (tho i don't think so): assume 250 as buy px. Hence ave buy px = (2.50 + 3)/2 = 2.75. This brings the ave buy px of capland to its tech support, in the eventuality that 2.75 now becomes a resistance instead of a support (since the px dropped to 240s-250s). So that in a 'worst case', you run at no loss. In a best case, you run with profit. This then is the DCA worth doing. ie, don't just count potential profit: not so simplistic as two lots @ 285 -->326 = more profit than one lot @ 3-->326. ; you need to count the risk you must take in order to make that profit. bottomline is, if you can't shift the ave buy px below a new resistance, or if the stock doesn't drop below the support, it really doesn't quite make sense to do a DCA. you may as well put the money into another counter to make more profit. |
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| 15-Jan-2009 18:56 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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hi oinkoink, yups, the levels called are still valid: levels = technical supports and resistances. They hold no matter what. However, what determines a buy/sell is the price volume action around that line. So the two support zones for capland was abt 268-275; below that is abt 242-250. which is why i had advocated two strikes for those who are/were interested in playing. since this counter has a history of rapid movement and gaps, so you can't quite tell which level the BBs will play it to. ie, for those who had bought earlier about 290 or whatever, you should NOT activate your second strike yet. As per my blog post today: DCA only if you can shift your buy px by more than 5%. if not, it may not quite be worthwhile, since with capland's history, it can easily take out the 290 within a day. http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/calls-part-2.html hope this helps, cheers! and as usual, caveat applies. pls exercise own judgment and discretion. |
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| 15-Jan-2009 17:06 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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and i trust that with today's action, folks can see the logic of why capland has to be played with a DCA policy. for the curious/befuddled, what went on behind the scenes since my last post on 12th: The foreigners tanking this counter are chiefly: UBS and Citigroup. They were actually more or less done with it by tues. But then, things changed in the US midway (namely: sale of Smith Barney, and results being brought forward to this friday instead of next week due to the markets reacting badly to this-I don't need to name the BB): which is why the additional, rather panicked, tanking, in order to raise cash to gloss the books by tomorrow. There's also at least one local prop in today's data; not a big one, but the House he belongs to is probably the biggest here. Won't name the company, but there you have it, the machinations behind the game. Same old, same old. Keep your cool, folks. It's really nothing new. |
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| 14-Jan-2009 12:10 |
COSCO SHP SG
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COSCO charting
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jerome, nopes actually. methinks, rather than obsessing over who's doing what, it's more important to know which way it's going. ie, who's winning. to do that, you just have to net off the large lots transacted. (of course, it's a different story as to what constitutes "large lots"---it's different for dif counters even in the same px range.) knowing the identities is just the icing on the cake. and in some cases, it may be misleading, since there are different traders within one house, and not all are as 'powerful'. hope this helps! of course tho, living and breathing it makes it infinitely easier. from a screen snapshot, you can more or less tell who's winning already, without having to do the calculations. |
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| 14-Jan-2009 12:00 |
COSCO SHP SG
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COSCO charting
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edit, an easier way would be to ask your broker; if they have other clients who traded it, or if they have friends in the props, they'll be able to know. novena, no problemo. happy trading! :) |
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| 14-Jan-2009 11:58 |
COSCO SHP SG
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COSCO charting
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from busd. tester lots aren't worth while: you may not get the BB as your counterparty after all. |
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