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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
equator2010
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16-Jan-2009 16:32     
 
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ticklish8      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 16:19) Posted:

Fyi... MTI will revise Singapore GDP figure next week.  just come back from Istana

oinkoink1999      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 14:13) Posted:

haha..u din..yr post is very informational..hope the next post on yr sell call is above the price that i bought....keeping my fingers cross ...Smiley
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ticklish8
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16-Jan-2009 16:19     
 
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oinkoink1999      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 14:13) Posted:

haha..u din..yr post is very informational..hope the next post on yr sell call is above the price that i bought....keeping my fingers cross ...Smiley

elfinchilde      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 11:31) Posted:



...and i also think i talk too much. >~<

k, capland isn't exactly doing anything out of its trend, so the next post i'll do here will be the sell call. meanwhile, the levels and strat quoted are still there for all to see.

feel free to run when you want to tho; since as always, it's buy/sell at your own discretion and caveat applies.

cheers!


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oinkoink1999
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16-Jan-2009 14:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		haha..u din..yr post is very informational..hope the next post on yr sell call is above the price that i bought....keeping my fingers cross ...Smiley

elfinchilde      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 11:31) Posted:



...and i also think i talk too much. >~<

k, capland isn't exactly doing anything out of its trend, so the next post i'll do here will be the sell call. meanwhile, the levels and strat quoted are still there for all to see.

feel free to run when you want to tho; since as always, it's buy/sell at your own discretion and caveat applies.

cheers!

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oinkoink1999
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16-Jan-2009 14:10     
 
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Hi elfinchide,

                   really appreciate your post with those detail examples..u also talk abt RM & MM which is very true..everyday I'm learning something from you guys here...really appreciate it. Keep those post coming, I would hope to hear from you again..Smiley 

Cheers,

oinkoink



elfinchilde      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 11:15) Posted:



is that your blog, j3rom3? and yuppers, that's DCA done the wrong way, sorry to say so. same reason why in my blog i stressed that it's emotional mgmt.

in any case, gotta remember that 290-3 is not a tech support for capland, but a psych support. the 'real' tech supports (ie, stronger; tho stocks do bounce off psych supports) were always the 240-50, and 268-75 range.

oink: this is less to do with actual trading, more with risk and money management (RM and MM resp)--which frankly, is more important than learning even TA. With proper RM/MM, even if your tech skills aren't the tops, you lessen your chances of loss.

why i had said to shift buy px by 5%: look at the support ranges for capland, and its daily ave range. keep in mind its average daily range is usually 12-15c. a ramp can be defined as 20-25c in a day. as in my blog, the aim of DCA is to shift the buy px below the trading range, in case the stock has fallen below a new resistance (former support).

ie, it is not always 5% that you need to shift the buy px by.

to illustrate: mathematics as such: (i assume 2 lots for simplicity, 1 lot = 1 strike. pls shift figures accordingly if you're buying more)

if you had bought at 3, keep reserve 2nd lot: to shift buy px by 5% =>

3 x 0.95 = 2.85.

=> for two lots, total cost = 2.85 x 2 = 5.7.

1st buy @ 3 => 2nd buy strike @ 5.7 - 3 = 2.7 buy px for 2nd strike.

which is exactly in the range of the tech support for capland. Sounds good.

BUT, your ave buy px is 2.85, which capland can easily cover in one day back to 3 (refer the daily ave range for capland). Also, bouncing off 275 => the tech target is 326 at least. ie, risk-reward may not quite be worth it. In money mgmt rules, you do not put all into one basket, and you don't send good money after bad. (for the px of it, you may as well fork out a bit more and buy two lots of smm at <1.65 instead. haha.)

Also: we should note that 3 isn't quite a tech support, ie the first buy at 3 is actually a mistake.

so the real DCA, if one had bought at 3, is at the 2nd tech support, in order not to mess up money mgmt and risk mgmt rules: ie, 240-250s.

ie, counting in the 'mistake buy' --> if we presume forward that capland does drop further (tho i don't think so):

assume 250 as buy px. Hence ave buy px = (2.50 + 3)/2 = 2.75.  

This brings the ave buy px of capland to its tech support, in the eventuality that 2.75 now becomes a resistance instead of a support (since the px dropped to 240s-250s). So that in a 'worst case', you run at no loss. In a best case, you run with profit.

This then is the DCA worth doing.

ie, don't just count potential profit: not so simplistic as two lots @ 285 -->326 = more profit than one lot @ 3-->326. ; you need to count the risk you must take in order to make that profit.

bottomline is, if you can't shift the ave buy px below a new resistance, or if the stock doesn't drop below the support, it really doesn't quite make sense to do a DCA. you may as well put the money into another counter to make more profit.

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elfinchilde
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16-Jan-2009 11:31     
 
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...and i also think i talk too much. >~<

k, capland isn't exactly doing anything out of its trend, so the next post i'll do here will be the sell call. meanwhile, the levels and strat quoted are still there for all to see.

feel free to run when you want to tho; since as always, it's buy/sell at your own discretion and caveat applies.

cheers!
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elfinchilde
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16-Jan-2009 11:24     
 
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eh. yea.

in case folks get starry-eyed about TA being the be-all and end-all.

it's not so. TA is not about "I can predict the market!!!!" and "I am king!!!" *woot woot*. True techies are about probability. ie, we acknowledge that we can never be 100% accurate. But what can we do to shift the 50% odds into our favour?

which trades are worthwhile taking?

Each techie uses his/her own tools to analyse the market trends. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. Contrary to popular opinion, the aim is not big instant windfalls; the aim is consistent income over the years that allows one to survive lean and fat years. that's why most traders are low profile; not high profile. You want to take silently from the market and leave just as silently; and not blast about your successes everywhere. ...which is also why i'd never reveal a trade whilst it's running, or id local BBs while they are playing. The last thing you want is to draw undue attention.

it's also up to each person to decide their own risk/reward appetite. where some may be satisfied with small gains; others may want big leaps. nothing's either right or wrong; just personality, and if you can live with your choices. TA is just the tool you use to get what you want.



j3r0m3      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 08:34) Posted:



Oinkoink, DCA = Dollar Cost Averaging.

Technical Analysis is more about the "weight of evidence" that points to a certain direction rather than a sure thing. So you will have to actually see what indicators work for you and what does not.

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elfinchilde
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16-Jan-2009 11:15     
 
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is that your blog, j3rom3? and yuppers, that's DCA done the wrong way, sorry to say so. same reason why in my blog i stressed that it's emotional mgmt.

in any case, gotta remember that 290-3 is not a tech support for capland, but a psych support. the 'real' tech supports (ie, stronger; tho stocks do bounce off psych supports) were always the 240-50, and 268-75 range.

oink: this is less to do with actual trading, more with risk and money management (RM and MM resp)--which frankly, is more important than learning even TA. With proper RM/MM, even if your tech skills aren't the tops, you lessen your chances of loss.

why i had said to shift buy px by 5%: look at the support ranges for capland, and its daily ave range. keep in mind its average daily range is usually 12-15c. a ramp can be defined as 20-25c in a day. as in my blog, the aim of DCA is to shift the buy px below the trading range, in case the stock has fallen below a new resistance (former support).

ie, it is not always 5% that you need to shift the buy px by.

to illustrate: mathematics as such: (i assume 2 lots for simplicity, 1 lot = 1 strike. pls shift figures accordingly if you're buying more)

if you had bought at 3, keep reserve 2nd lot: to shift buy px by 5% =>

3 x 0.95 = 2.85.

=> for two lots, total cost = 2.85 x 2 = 5.7.

1st buy @ 3 => 2nd buy strike @ 5.7 - 3 = 2.7 buy px for 2nd strike.

which is exactly in the range of the tech support for capland. Sounds good.

BUT, your ave buy px is 2.85, which capland can easily cover in one day back to 3 (refer the daily ave range for capland). Also, bouncing off 275 => the tech target is 326 at least. ie, risk-reward may not quite be worth it. In money mgmt rules, you do not put all into one basket, and you don't send good money after bad. (for the px of it, you may as well fork out a bit more and buy two lots of smm at <1.65 instead. haha.)

Also: we should note that 3 isn't quite a tech support, ie the first buy at 3 is actually a mistake.

so the real DCA, if one had bought at 3, is at the 2nd tech support, in order not to mess up money mgmt and risk mgmt rules: ie, 240-250s.

ie, counting in the 'mistake buy' --> if we presume forward that capland does drop further (tho i don't think so):

assume 250 as buy px. Hence ave buy px = (2.50 + 3)/2 = 2.75.  

This brings the ave buy px of capland to its tech support, in the eventuality that 2.75 now becomes a resistance instead of a support (since the px dropped to 240s-250s). So that in a 'worst case', you run at no loss. In a best case, you run with profit.

This then is the DCA worth doing.

ie, don't just count potential profit: not so simplistic as two lots @ 285 -->326 = more profit than one lot @ 3-->326. ; you need to count the risk you must take in order to make that profit.

bottomline is, if you can't shift the ave buy px below a new resistance, or if the stock doesn't drop below the support, it really doesn't quite make sense to do a DCA. you may as well put the money into another counter to make more profit.
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j3r0m3
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16-Jan-2009 09:31     
 
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A case of DCA done the wrong way.

http://singaporetrader.wordpress.com/2009/01/14/capitaland/



elfinchilde      ( Date: 15-Jan-2009 18:56) Posted:



hi oinkoink,

yups, the levels called are still valid:

levels = technical supports and resistances. They hold no matter what.

However, what determines a buy/sell is the price volume action around that line.

So the two support zones for capland was abt 268-275; below that is abt 242-250. which is why i had advocated two strikes for those who are/were interested in playing. since this counter has a history of rapid movement and gaps, so you can't quite tell which level the BBs will play it to.

ie, for those who had bought earlier about 290 or whatever, you should NOT activate your second strike yet. As per my blog post today: DCA only if you can shift your buy px by more than 5%. if not, it may not quite be worthwhile, since with capland's history, it can easily take out the 290 within a day.

http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/calls-part-2.html

 

hope this helps, cheers!

 

and as usual, caveat applies. pls exercise own judgment and discretion.

 
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j3r0m3
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16-Jan-2009 08:34     
 
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Oinkoink, DCA = Dollar Cost Averaging.

Technical Analysis is more about the "weight of evidence" that points to a certain direction rather than a sure thing. So you will have to actually see what indicators work for you and what does not.
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oinkoink1999
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16-Jan-2009 08:24     
 
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hi hahalol,

                 your id very funny leh..Smiley oh yes I read your blog...got picture but not much words..hmm..so your TA shows that the rebound is likely to happen today or somewhere next week? Am I right? paiseh paiseh..still a newbie though :P

Cheer,

oinkoink



hahalol      ( Date: 16-Jan-2009 00:48) Posted:



technical analysis on capland

click http://hahalolhahalol.blogspot.com/ to view chart ...SmileySmiley
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hahalol
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16-Jan-2009 00:48     
 
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technical analysis on capland

click http://hahalolhahalol.blogspot.com/ to view chart ...SmileySmiley
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oinkoink1999
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15-Jan-2009 23:01     
 
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Hi jipuo1 & elfinchilde,

                                  thanks for the reply. I should have read your blog before buying the stocks. I bought at around 3 flat so was thinking should I do cost averaging if the price really hit the 2nd support zone of 2.40 - 2.50. When you mentioned 5% do you mean that if I go in at 2nd support line, my average price goes to 3.00*0.95 = 2.85 then is considered a good buy?

Sorry guys, I'm still a newbie in trading.Smiley BTW, Whats DCA..paiseh paiseh...still coping with the terms you guys using. 

Cheers,

 oinkoink 



elfinchilde      ( Date: 15-Jan-2009 18:56) Posted:



hi oinkoink,

yups, the levels called are still valid:

levels = technical supports and resistances. They hold no matter what.

However, what determines a buy/sell is the price volume action around that line.

So the two support zones for capland was abt 268-275; below that is abt 242-250. which is why i had advocated two strikes for those who are/were interested in playing. since this counter has a history of rapid movement and gaps, so you can't quite tell which level the BBs will play it to.

ie, for those who had bought earlier about 290 or whatever, you should NOT activate your second strike yet. As per my blog post today: DCA only if you can shift your buy px by more than 5%. if not, it may not quite be worthwhile, since with capland's history, it can easily take out the 290 within a day.

http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/calls-part-2.html

 

hope this helps, cheers!

 

and as usual, caveat applies. pls exercise own judgment and discretion.

 
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jipuo1
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15-Jan-2009 20:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Stay invested for this counter.  BBs eyeing it.  They can come in at a time sooner than you think.
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elfinchilde
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15-Jan-2009 18:56     
 
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hi oinkoink,

yups, the levels called are still valid:

levels = technical supports and resistances. They hold no matter what.

However, what determines a buy/sell is the price volume action around that line.

So the two support zones for capland was abt 268-275; below that is abt 242-250. which is why i had advocated two strikes for those who are/were interested in playing. since this counter has a history of rapid movement and gaps, so you can't quite tell which level the BBs will play it to.

ie, for those who had bought earlier about 290 or whatever, you should NOT activate your second strike yet. As per my blog post today: DCA only if you can shift your buy px by more than 5%. if not, it may not quite be worthwhile, since with capland's history, it can easily take out the 290 within a day.

http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/calls-part-2.html

 

hope this helps, cheers!

 

and as usual, caveat applies. pls exercise own judgment and discretion.

 
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oinkoink1999
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15-Jan-2009 17:16     
 
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Hi elfinchilde,

                      based on today's trading price, is your comment on 12 Jan still valid? I mean 1st drop is abt 275 which is today's price, 2nd is 240 - 250?

Cheers,

oinkoink



elfinchilde      ( Date: 12-Jan-2009 09:53) Posted:



"There should be a buy signal generated within this week; and the sell next week or week after. "

My ideal buy wld be about 275 actually. but large lots appear to be entering now. one needs to prep two strikes: 1st around now, 2nd to reserve for 240-250, just in case. I'm waiting for Hang Seng open to see 1st.

then 1st target 326, then 370. if it breaks 326 intraday (rather than close of day), it'll hit higher. Even at 326, it presents an attractive 10% premium at current prices.

vol is impt. count the vol. ~132mil starting from today.

caveat applies to all the above pls. Remember this is a very precise forward call. the elf accepts no responsibility for your loss or gain. pls make own buy/sell decision, and trade within your own comfort.

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elfinchilde
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15-Jan-2009 17:06     
 
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and i trust that with today's action, folks can see the logic of why capland has to be played with a DCA policy.

for the curious/befuddled, what went on behind the scenes since my last post on 12th:

The foreigners tanking this counter are chiefly: UBS and Citigroup.

They were actually more or less done with it by tues. But then, things changed in the US midway (namely: sale of Smith Barney, and results being brought forward to this friday instead of next week due to the markets reacting badly to this-I don't need to name the BB): which is why the additional, rather panicked, tanking, in order to raise cash to gloss the books by tomorrow.

There's also at least one local prop in today's data; not a big one, but the House he belongs to is probably the biggest here. Won't name the company, but there you have it, the machinations behind the game.

Same old, same old.

Keep your cool, folks. It's really nothing new.
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elfinchilde
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12-Jan-2009 09:53     
 
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"There should be a buy signal generated within this week; and the sell next week or week after. "

My ideal buy wld be about 275 actually. but large lots appear to be entering now. one needs to prep two strikes: 1st around now, 2nd to reserve for 240-250, just in case. I'm waiting for Hang Seng open to see 1st.

then 1st target 326, then 370. if it breaks 326 intraday (rather than close of day), it'll hit higher. Even at 326, it presents an attractive 10% premium at current prices.

vol is impt. count the vol. ~132mil starting from today.

caveat applies to all the above pls. Remember this is a very precise forward call. the elf accepts no responsibility for your loss or gain. pls make own buy/sell decision, and trade within your own comfort.
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AK_Francis
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12-Jan-2009 09:47     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes, any action, from now till before CNY.
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elfinchilde
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12-Jan-2009 09:37     
 
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2009/01/pva-study-anatomy-of-capitaland.html

here. for the interested, a detailed tech study of capland.

TA is a very useful tool; once understood, it gives you not only the stock characteristics, but also the method of playing it, and the entry and exit strategies.

Beware, it's a long read.

There should be a buy signal generated within this week; and the sell next week or week after.
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AK_Francis
Supreme
09-Jan-2009 09:40     
 
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Base on most state land frozen for redevelopment, recent great fall in sale of ppty, office rental n gloomy ppty investment ahead, most analyst dun look good on ppty stocks. No feel of the bottom px.

As US is going to annoounce Dec unemployment tonite, DJ may got hit. Henceforth, next Mon could be a better bargain for stock marketing, in Spore. Suggest no heavy involvement in buying. Take small bite to test the stimulus fr Inauguration of Amah on 20 n Spore new budget release on 22 ds mth. May see some kopi $. However, the call is still at your court.

As AK mentioned b4, more retrenchment will be made known after CNY, hence trade with care. AK still pereives that cash is king, no rush, esp for heavy duty stocks. A typ exp, DBS. On the other hand, not cheap stock is neither good either, ie KXD, though Jade has come back with some live!!  

Lastly, if u sell in strgh during last Mon or Tue, then u hv better confidence to acquire some of your loved ones again. Cheers.



leechongpeng      ( Date: 09-Jan-2009 09:20) Posted:

What would be a reasonable price to buy this counter?

AK_Francis      ( Date: 08-Jan-2009 22:57) Posted:

AK opines that it will shed further. Best, dun touch this burger, if u can.


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