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sgng123 Veteran	29-Nov-2013 19:11        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	actually the whole antitrust probe by EU on containers liner is trying to sidetrack P3 implementation in 2Q 14. In this case it the shippers vs Container liner, last 3 years it is container lines vs each other in rate war benefiting the shippers with very cheap freight rate. Now the rival liners are pushing to form 1 big alliance made the shipper very scared due to sudden huge spike of freight rate from a unsustainable low base. It is the kind of heart attack move when suddenly shipping cost for every export jumped 2-3 times as demand returned and liners cut excess capacity. Take for example currently shipping cost only account for 1% for actual item cost while the sustainable margin suppose to be 3%, in this case retailer booked the 2% saving as their own profit margin. When demand returned and freight rate recovered, retailer might had to stomach the increase shipping cost resulting in lower profit margin. When P3 is formed, very high chance the top 3 carriers would start to cut capacity and do very big rate hike which may caused shippers to worry about their profit margin as they taken low freight  rate as norm lol. This is the nature of container shipping, it is either Feast Or Famine they either make big money or lose big no such thing as stable earning propect. Always trying to outdo each other in rate war and when rate war over all ganged up and jerk rate to ridiculous high  level to recoup losses from last few years.  Fear is coming in 2014 and if US economy rebound strongly, prepare to see freight rate sky rocket till 2016. Lucky03      ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 09:01) Posted: Will shippers such as APL of NOL benefits if there is any restriction imposed on the 3 big shippers for involvement in antitrust violation ? Lucky03      ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 02:18) Posted: NOL says not involved in EC antitrust proceedings By Marcus Hand from Singapore Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) says it is not involved in antitrust proceedings by the European Commission (EC) over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade. The EC has initiated formal proceedings against undisclosed container lines over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade with a focus on box rate increases in 2009. NOL was one of the lines involved in ?dawn raids? by the EC in May 2011, which led to the announcement of formal proceedings against line last Friday. ?APL and its parent company NOL are not the subject of the antitrust proceedings announced by the European Commission on November 22, 2013,? NOL said in a statement. ?We have no other information regarding this matter,? the company added. Among the other companies involved in the 2011 raids were OOCL, Maersk Line and Hapag-Lloyd. Mearsk said it was cooperating with EC investigations.
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Lucky03 Veteran	29-Nov-2013 07:11        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Euro zone business morale hits 27-month high CNBC.com 11/28/13 5:54 AM ET By: Katrina Bishop Business morale across the euro zone carried on rising in November to its strongest level since August 2011 - boosting hopes that firms could spur on the 17-country region's bumpy economic recovery. The European Commission's monthly business and consumer survey, published Thursday, revealed that economic sentiment increased to 98.5 in November - up from 97.7 in October. The figure was higher than the 98 expected by analysts polled by Reuters. The increase was driven by improved confidence in services (which hit a 20-month high) and industry (a 27-month high) across the euro area, Europe's statistics agency Eurostat said. Morale did weaken in construction, however, and consumer confidence in November also slipped back, after growing for 11 straight months. (Read more: Euro zone economy losing steam as PMIs disappoint) "While the upward trend observed since May has been preserved, the improvement in confidence has noticeably decelerated over the past two months, mirroring differences in developments across sectors," Eurostat said in a release accompanying the data. PLAY VIDEO Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz, says deflation could be good for southern Europe's competitiveness. The mixed picture comes amid concerns about the strength of the euro zone's economic recovery. After the longest contraction in continental Europe in over 40 years, the region pulled out of an 18-month stretch of negative growth in the second quarter of 2013. But data published earlier this month revealed that the euro zone's economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the 17-nation bloc came in at just 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, marking a slowdown from a 0.3 percent expansion in the second quarter. Meanwhile, last week, the composite purchasing manager's index (PMI) survey for the region revealed that business activity in the euro zone fell unexpectedly in November, prompting concerns that the region's recovery was losing steam. (Read more: Why euro zone slowdown should worry the world) Howard Archer, chief U.K. and European economist at IGS Global Insight, said Thursday's business and consumer survey supported hopes that the euro zone could gradually establish economic recovery - despite the relapse in GDP growth. "Looking ahead, the hope for the euro zone is that current rising confidence will encourage businesses to lift their employment and investment plans," he said in a note. "However, November's dip in consumer confidence reinforces suspicion that euro zone consumers will likely remain generally pretty cautious in their spending in the near term at least which will hardly help growth prospects." Economic sentiment improved in four of the five largest euro zone economies - Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Germany - but deteriorated in France, in yet another sign that the country's economy was being left behind. (Read more: Is France heading for a new recession?) The survey came on the same day that separate data, published by the European Central Bank (ECB), reveal that lending to businesses in the euro zone disappointed in October. Lending to euro zone businesses fell by 14 billion euros in October - after slipping by 11 billion euros in September. "Banks likely believe the economic situation and outlook in many euro zone countries still provides an uncertain and risky backdrop in which to lend despite the euro zone eking out modest growth since the second quarter," Archer added.
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Lucky03 Veteran	28-Nov-2013 09:01        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Will shippers such as APL of NOL benefits if there is any restriction imposed on the 3 big shippers for involvement in antitrust violation ? Lucky03      ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 02:18) Posted: NOL says not involved in EC antitrust proceedings By Marcus Hand from Singapore Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) says it is not involved in antitrust proceedings by the European Commission (EC) over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade. The EC has initiated formal proceedings against undisclosed container lines over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade with a focus on box rate increases in 2009. NOL was one of the lines involved in ?dawn raids? by the EC in May 2011, which led to the announcement of formal proceedings against line last Friday. ?APL and its parent company NOL are not the subject of the antitrust proceedings announced by the European Commission on November 22, 2013,? NOL said in a statement. ?We have no other information regarding this matter,? the company added. Among the other companies involved in the 2011 raids were OOCL, Maersk Line and Hapag-Lloyd. Mearsk said it was cooperating with EC investigations.
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Lucky03 Veteran	28-Nov-2013 02:18        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL says not involved in EC antitrust proceedings By Marcus Hand from Singapore Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) says it is not involved in antitrust proceedings by the European Commission (EC) over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade. The EC has initiated formal proceedings against undisclosed container lines over alleged price fixing on the Asia ? Europe trade with a focus on box rate increases in 2009. NOL was one of the lines involved in ?dawn raids? by the EC in May 2011, which led to the announcement of formal proceedings against line last Friday. ?APL and its parent company NOL are not the subject of the antitrust proceedings announced by the European Commission on November 22, 2013,? NOL said in a statement. ?We have no other information regarding this matter,? the company added. Among the other companies involved in the 2011 raids were OOCL, Maersk Line and Hapag-Lloyd. Mearsk said it was cooperating with EC investigations.
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Lucky03 Veteran	28-Nov-2013 02:16        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree with you, sgng123. sgng123      ( Date: 27-Nov-2013 23:04) Posted: 3q 2014 would see all transpacific + Europe bound ships being replaced with better ships. For 4Q13 to 2Q14 u see a gradual improvement in earning propect due to retiring charter resulting in lower operating expense. Be patient and ur fruit would ripe. Currently only Maersk had been successful in turning round their profit margin cos they start the ship efficiency program 1 year earlier than everyone, NOL is catching up just need more time. By the way should check up NOL website on their fleet info just to check if chartered ship are being returned, website update somewhere in mid dec, currently standing fleet number is 126 ships. In  financial report only 121 ships reported to be operational 5 new built delivered.
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sgng123 Veteran	27-Nov-2013 23:04        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	3q 2014 would see all transpacific + Europe bound ships being replaced with better ships. For 4Q13 to 2Q14 u see a gradual improvement in earning propect due to retiring charter resulting in lower operating expense. Be patient and ur fruit would ripe. Currently only Maersk had been successful in turning round their profit margin cos they start the ship efficiency program 1 year earlier than everyone, NOL is catching up just need more time. By the way should check up NOL website on their fleet info just to check if chartered ship are being returned, website update somewhere in mid dec, currently standing fleet number is 126 ships. In  financial report only 121 ships reported to be operational 5 new built delivered.
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Lucky03 Veteran	27-Nov-2013 22:58        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wonder when will APL be able to reach the same level of efficiency such that NOL will be more competitive and have a better chance of turning around sooner than later. Container ships reached their destination ports around the world on time 81.2 percent of the time in September, a small increase of 0.4 percentage point from August, according to the latest Global Liner Performance report from SeaIntel Maritime Analysis. ?This is a very positive development as schedule reliability has declined for five consecutive months, from March to July this year, but has now improved for the past two months since we reached the bottom in July,? Alan Murphy, chief operating officer and partner at SeaIntel Maritime Analysis, said in announcing the results. The improvement also was seen in the delivery of individual containers to their destinations, which SeaIntel tracks in partnership with INTTRA. The global on-time delivery of containers improved to 65.7 percent for the month, up 2.2 percentage points from 63.5 percent in August. Maersk Line and Hamburg Süd retained the top spots in the global performance ranking for the third consecutive month, with a global schedule reliability of 89.3 percent and 84.4 percent, respectively. Yang Ming was the third most reliable carrier in September, with ships arriving on schedule 83.9 percent of the time. Carriers improved reliability in two out of three large head-haul trade lanes from Asia month-over-month in September, according to the report. The trans-Pacific and Asia-to-Mediterranean routes improved scheduled reliability by 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively, while the Asia-to-North Europe trade lane witnessed a 2 percent decline in performance. Notably, the results from Drewry Maritime Research?s recently published Carrier Performance Insight report conflict with SeaIntel?s conclusions. Drewry found that ship and container reliability in the third quarter of 2013 to be "disappointing.?
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Lucky03 Veteran	27-Nov-2013 22:46        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Logistics Confidence Index Hits Record High JOC Staff | Nov 25, 2013 3:52PM EST The Stifel Nicolaus Logistics Confidence Index, a monthly survey of international shippers and forwarders in the Europe-based air and ocean freight trade lanes, climbed 2.5 points in November to a record high 57.1. Stifel Logistics Confidence Index: Total freight (air and ocean). The index, developed by Stifel Nicolaus Transportation & Logistics Research Group, has remained above 50 ? the threshold signifying growth in cargo volumes vs. deceleration ? since February. November?s reading was 20.4 percent higher than last year?s 47.4 reading and 4.4 percent higher than last month?s 54.6. The report pointed toward improving economic conditions in Europe as the probable cause for the ?strong? increase in the overall index, although it noted that overcapacity and low growth levels continued to be ?challenging? for forwarders. Despite ?significant volatility in underlying ocean rates,? the overall sea freight index climbed 3.3 points from October to 57.9 in November. The index registered strong increases in most lanes, except the U.S.-Europe trade, which increased only 0.2 points to 54.3. The report showed that sea forwarders were mixed on all lanes covered for the next six months, although the index declined 0.1 points to 62.0 in November. Notably, 42.3 percent of the survey respondents indicated they don't believe ocean freight rates have bottomed out. The overall air freight index increased 1.6 points month-over-month to 56.3 in November, and was up 10.4 points from November 2012. It represented the first time since the index began in March 2012 that it has climbed into ?expansion territory,? according to the report. Monthly air freight volume increased in all lanes except the U.S.-Europe route. In terms of expectations for the next six months, the index increased 0.4 points to 61.6 in November. The report concluded that air and sea forwarders were facing continuing challenges in the U.S.-Europe trade because of the weak European economy and the partial shutdown of the U.S. government in October. Regarding the six month outlook, the overall index remained relatively flat, increasing only 0.1 point to 61.8.
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ascend88 Senior	27-Nov-2013 22:29        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bdi up up up
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ascend88 Senior	26-Nov-2013 21:35        ascend88 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Big ship set sail
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Lucky03 Veteran	26-Nov-2013 21:32        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Singapore is a proxy to world trade. PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 26, 2013 Singapore factory output up 8% in Oct SINGAPORE'S manufacturing sector expanded 8 per cent in October compared to a year ago, as a 22.8 per cent jump in electronics output helped to offset a 2.3 per cent contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster SINGAPORE'S manufacturing sector expanded 8 per cent in October compared to a year ago, as a 22.8 per cent jump in electronics output helped to offset a 2.3 per cent contraction in the biomedical manufacturing cluster. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, industrial production would have grown an even stronger 10.4 per cent year-on-year. The 17 economists polled by Bloomberg before the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) released the numbers on Tuesday had a median forecast of 9.3 per cent growth. They were expecting industrial output to rise at a robust pace, given last month's stronger-than-expected non-oil domestic exports data.
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Solidsnake Member	26-Nov-2013 16:03        Solidsnake About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think oil px dropped, that's why. williamyeo      ( Date: 26-Nov-2013 11:45) Posted: NOL moving ???
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williamyeo Senior	26-Nov-2013 11:45        williamyeo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL moving ???
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pineapple123 Member	26-Nov-2013 10:05        pineapple123 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	attempting to break 20D MA today.
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Lucky03 Veteran	26-Nov-2013 00:31        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Looks like size still matters. NOL expecting new fleets - 14 new vessels this year and 10 more scheduled in 2014 which will in increase NOL fleet size and becoming more cost effective as stated in Macquarie Research with an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of $1.35. Big Carriers Boost Market Share at Expense of Smaller Rivals JOC Staff | Nov 25, 2013 9:32AM EST The largest ocean carriers sharply increased their market share at the expense of their smaller rivals in the third quarter, according to Drewry Maritime Research. Maersk Line, the world?s largest carrier, increased traffic year-over-year by 9.5 percent, more than double the global average growth of 4.2 percent, while third-ranked CMA CGM?s traffic jumped 11 percent from the third quarter of 2012, the London-based consultancy said. Hapag-Lloyd?s cargo rose by 8.7 percent during the quarter, Cosco was up 7.8 percent and Hanjin, 5.8 percent. By contrast, ?K? Line?s traffic shrunk 6.3 percent from the third quarter of 2012, APL was down 5.4 percent and OOCL, 0.9 percent. Japanese carriers Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and NYK Line, which operate on the Asia-Europe and Asia-North America trade lanes, increased traffic by just 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent respectively. ?How much this is due to service differentiation, such as improved schedule reliability, is difficult to assess,? Drewry said. Price cutting may have played a part in the larger carriers? increased market shares, but this is not obvious, as all carriers reported lower average freight rates compared with a year earlier. Maersk?s average freight rate fell 12.2 percent, CMA CGM was down 9.6 percent, Hapag-Lloyd dropped 10.4 percent, OOCL declined 9.4 percent and APL slid 8.8 percent. Carriers with the biggest exposure to the Asia-Europe trade suffered the largest declines, but many north-south routes were ?not a bed of roses.? Drewry said comparisons between the third quarters of 2013 and 2012 must be treated with caution as the third quarter of last year was ?such an unusual period due to the absence of any peak season in the east-west trades.? Thus it could be that the fight between carriers this year was over lost market share rather than capturing an increased market share. The gap between the carriers narrowed in the first nine months of the year, but the big lines are still getting bigger at the expense of their smaller rivals. Maersk boosted traffic by 3.1 percent compared with the global average of 2.3 percent, while CMA CGM carried 7 percent more cargo and Cosco?s traffic improved 8.4 percent.
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Lucky03 Veteran	25-Nov-2013 22:11        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I share the same thought. They swing quarter to quarter on hindsight. Many of them are so young that they don't even have enough experience to make the right judgement. Often very theoretical and follow the herd. When the demand kicks in plus the measures already in place to rein in cost and increase efficiency, it will just shoot off. Not even surprise doubling within a year !
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sgng123 Veteran	25-Nov-2013 15:05        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	don trust the brokerage house rating, they change tones whenever it benefit them. now they are accumulating ship but no one want to sell so no choice but to spread rumour hoping peep fall for it,
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Lucky03 Veteran	24-Nov-2013 13:47        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If Daily Short Sell report on SGX is to be trusted for what it is intended to reveal, someone has been shorting almost daily at 1.045. Do these people really believe there is money to be made shorting NOL, unless they believe the investment house analyst that set NOL TP at $0.95.
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Lucky03 Veteran	23-Nov-2013 11:13        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The shippers will continue to struggle with the is discipline to withdraw excess capacity and stick to the discipline of the increase in rates until the demand is sustainable with real increase in international trade volumes. Well, in share investment, it is about assessing and buying into the future. Signs of recovery in Europe while US, China and Japan continue to transform their economies and enter into sustainable growth will be helpful. Singapore can sometimes act as a proxy given our port status and recent increase in manufacturing output augur well. SCFI: Asia-to-North Europe Lanes Give Up Nearly Half of Recent Rate Gains JOC Staff | Nov 22, 2013 5:04PM EST Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, North Europe, week ending Nov. 22, 2013 Spot container rates from Asia to northern European ports measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index have given up much of the increases achieved around the Nov. 1 general rate increase. Both Mediterranean and northern European lanes have declined for three consecutive weeks, following jumps around the Nov. 1 GRI of between $700 and $800 per 20-foot-equivalent units. ?These declines are simply reflective of the ever present weak fundamentals on the Asia-Europe trade lane, and from discussions with major shippers, the market expectation is that 2014 will be an even more challenging year than 2013,? said Michael Rainsford, Freight trader for Morgan Stanley Commodities. ?The current 2013 year-to-date average on the Asia-Europe trade is $1,064 per-TEU and given weakening fundamentals into 2014, carriers could struggle to maintain this average next year, unless there is a considerable increase in discipline attributed to capacity withdrawals and rationalization of services.? Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, Mediterranean, week ending Nov. 22, 2013 The spot rate from Shanghai to northern European ports for the week ending Nov. 22 dropped 11.1 percent or $135 from the week before, down to $1,078 per TEU. The rate soared $753 per TEU three weeks ago, but it has now dropped $345 from that high. The SCFI rate to northern Europe for the week ending Nov. 22 is 0.1 percent below where it was at the same point in 2012, and 15.1 percent lower than at the beginning of 2013. The spot rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean ports fell 6.2 percent or $81 per TEU from the week before to $1,227 per TEU, according to the latest SCFI data issued by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Rates have eroded $272 in the last three weeks. Despite this decline, the SCFI to the Mediterranean is up 56.1 percent year-over-year and up 6.0 percent from Jan. 1. Asia-Europe Weekly Returns: A Review of the Last 12 Months ?This morning, the European Commission opened ?formal antitrust proceedings? against container shipping companies, highlighting that ?The commission has concerns that this practice may allow the companies to signal future price intentions to each other and may harm competition and customers.? This probably does not come as a shock to most market observers. The chart (right) highlights the extent to which the market is essentially ?broken.? The prevailing trend of rates is downwards, and there has not been a single weekly organic (non-GRI) increase in rates on the SCFI Asia-Europe for the whole of 2013. The chart below shows that over the last 52 weeks, 41 have been week-on-week declines, whilst only 11 weeks have delivered increases. This said, the average weekly increase is 35 percent as a result of aggressive GRIs, in comparison to the average weekly fall of 6.8 percent which is much more representative of underlying fundamentals,? Rainsford said. ?Eyes are now firmly on how the EU proceedings will impact the market in the short term. It is still unclear as to whether such proceedings increase the probability that carriers will not implement the mid-December planned GRI,? Rainsford added. Carriers have already begun announcing their next round of increases in Asia-Europe lanes. MSC, Hapag Lloyd and CMA CGM have announced increases of between $750 and $775, set for Dec. 15-16. ?This uncertainty and volatility in rates is helping nobody, and does not look like it will subside anytime soon.?
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Lucky03 Veteran	23-Nov-2013 10:54        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If the international trade improves and couple with many attempts by the shippers to increase the rates, NOL will ride the wave. SCFI: Shanghai-to-US Spot Container Rates Dip JOC Staff | Nov 22, 2013 5:06PM EST Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, U.S. West Coast, week ending Nov. 22, 2013 Spot container rates from Asia to the U.S. East and West coasts measured by the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index saw slight declines only one week after moving higher around a general rate increase recommended by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement of $400 per 40-foot container in all Asia-U.S. lanes, set for Nov. 15. The spot rate from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast slipped 1.9 percent, or $36, from the previous week to $1,849 per FEU, according to SCFI data issued by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Before last week?s increase, rates in this lane had declined for eight straight weeks. The spot rate in the week ending Nov. 22 is 11.5 percent below the level in the same week last year and 16.7 percent less than at the beginning of 2013. Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, U.S. East Coast, week ending Nov. 22, 2013 The spot rate to the U.S. East Coast edged down 1.0 percent, or $33 per FEU, to $3,151 in the week ending Nov. 22. Despite the drop, the current rate remains up 0.2 percent year-over-year, but is down 6.2 percent from Jan. 1. The member lines in the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement are now attempting a 2-stage rate increase, adopting general rate increases of $200 per 40-foot container, effective Dec. 20, 2013, and $300 per 40-foot container, beginning Jan. 15, 2014, for the Asia-to-U.S. trade lane.
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