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trader88.sg Veteran	22-Jan-2009 10:48        trader88.sg About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Another simple way is to look at the 200-day simple moving average.
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VolatiltyTrader Member	22-Jan-2009 09:58        VolatiltyTrader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi  Hulumas, You may be right. The last cycle of favouring Bond started around late 2000 and lasted till mid 2003. My view is  that this current cycle may end around end 2009. Having said that, I prefer to wait for a confirmation and see the ratio starts to drop down before putting more money. For those who are trying to catch the bottom, I would suggest placing your trades over a period of time instead of one-off investment.  By the way, the Oil sector is showing some interesting relationship with Gold in the short term. Take a look. Regards, VT
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Hulumas Supreme	22-Jan-2009 09:22        Hulumas About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "INVEST but not TRADE please!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	One thing, I predict, favour bond period this time would not be longer than 2 years. Hope I am right. VolatiltyTrader      ( Date: 21-Jan-2009 23:27) Posted: Hi, One of the ways that I use to determine the trend of the equities market is by understanding where the funds are allocated to. In the past, when I managed funds, we need to allocate our funds between bonds and equities. Thus, by understanding where the professional places their funds can be useful for investment over the next 3 years. I did an presentation in Nov 2008 to a group of traders. I used the relationship of 30yr Bonds and S&P 500 to demonstrate how we can see where the funds are. When the ratio is moving up, it means that investors are putting money in Bonds. When the ratio is down, investors favour equities. You can see from the chart below. During the period when the ratio is coming down, S&P 500 index is move up (the lower panel). Please note that the above chart was presented in Nov 2008, whereby I cautioned that investors are moving into Bond. The ratio now is near the peak of 2003, whereby investors still favour Bonds. This information is useful for allocation with a view of 2-3 years. Hope this helps :) VT
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VolatiltyTrader Member	21-Jan-2009 23:27        VolatiltyTrader About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 2   x 0  Alert Admin	Hi, One of the ways that I use to determine the trend of the equities market is by understanding where the funds are allocated to. In the past, when I managed funds, we need to allocate our funds between bonds and equities. Thus, by understanding where the professional places their funds can be useful for investment over the next 3 years. I did an presentation in Nov 2008 to a group of traders. I used the relationship of 30yr Bonds and S&P 500 to demonstrate how we can see where the funds are. When the ratio is moving up, it means that investors are putting money in Bonds. When the ratio is down, investors favour equities. You can see from the chart below. During the period when the ratio is coming down, S&P 500 index is move up (the lower panel). Please note that the above chart was presented in Nov 2008, whereby I cautioned that investors are moving into Bond. The ratio now is near the peak of 2003, whereby investors still favour Bonds. This information is useful for allocation with a view of 2-3 years. Hope this helps :) VT
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